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. 2021 Mar 18;16(3):e0248687. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248687

Lost to follow-up and associated factors among patients with drug resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Assefa Andargie 1,*, Asressie Molla 1, Fentaw Tadese 1, Segenet Zewdie 2
Editor: Claudia Marotta3
PMCID: PMC7971507  PMID: 33735231

Abstract

Background

One third of global antmicrobial resistance deaths are attributed to drug resistant tuberculosis. Lost to follow-up is one of the causes of the development of acquired drug resistant tuberculosis. There is a gap in nationally representative reliable information on lost to follow-up among patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia.

Objective

To estimate the pooled prevalence and associated factors of lost to follow-up among patients with drug resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia.

Methods

Observational studies searched from PubMed, HINARI and CINAHL were screened for eligibility. After assessing the quality of studies, data were extracted using a checklist. Heterogeneity was assessed using forest plot, Q and I2. The random effects meta-analysis model was employed to pull the prevalence of lost to follow-up. Sub-group analysis and meta regression were performed to identify the sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots with Egger’s and Begg’s tests. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of individual studies on the overall estimate. The odds ratios were used to measure associations.

Results

The review was performed among 11 studies of which 9 were cohort studies. The sample sizes ranged from 90 to 612 and comprised a total of 3,510 participants. The pooled prevalence of lost to follow-up was 8.66% (95% CI, 5.01–13.14) with a high heterogeneity (I2 = 93.49%, p<0.001). Pulmonary multi-drug resistant tuberculosis patients were 50% less likely to loss from follow-up compared to extra pulmonary tuberculosis patients.

Conclusion

There was a high prevalence of lost to follow-up among multi-drug resistant tuberculosis patients in Ethiopia. Anatomical site of tuberculosis was a significant factor affecting lost to follow-up. Strengthening the health care system and patient education should be given a due emphasis.

Registration number

CRD42020153326; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=153326.

Introduction

Drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is an emerging global public health threat. In 2018, 484,000 people developed TB that was resistant to rifampicin (RR-TB), and of these, 78% had multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). About 187,000 cases of MDR/RR-TB were detected and notified in this year. Among cases of MDR-TB in the same year, 6.2% were estimated to have extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) [1]. In the year 2017, one-third of global antimicrobial resistance deaths are attributed to MDR-TB [2].

Ethiopia is among the 30 high TB/DR-TB burden countries around the globe. According to a study based on reference laboratory data, the overall prevalence of DR-TB in Ethiopia was 11.6% [3]. Programmatic management of DR-TB was first initiated in 2009 in Ethiopia [4]. Currently, there are three nationally recommended DR-TB treatment regimens in Ethiopia; Standardized Longer Treatment Regimen (sLTR), Standardized Shorter Treatment Regimen (sSTR) and Individualized longer Treatment Regimen (ITR) [5].

Based on the treatment outcome, a TB patient may be categorized as cured, treatment completed, treatment failure, loss to follow up or died [6]. Lost to follow up (LTFU), formerly known as treatment default, refers to patients who received treatment for at least 4 weeks and discontinued treatment for more than eight consecutive weeks [5,7]. The prevalence of patients with LTFU varies in different parts of the world. According to a systematic review in Sub Saharan Africa a range of 1% to 22.3% of DR-TB patients were LTFU [8].

LTFU is one of the reasons for the development of acquired DR-TB. Patients who return to retreatment after LTFU were at a higher risk of developing DR-TB and are at a higher risk for poor prognosis and death [911]. Reports on economic burden of non-adherence to TB medicines indicated that an estimated 52 MDR-TB patients who were lost to follow-up are likely to have resulted in 5 patients developing XDR-TB, 3 new persons being infected with MDR-TB and 1 new person with XDR-TB, and 3 deaths. Moreover, LTFU is likely to have resulted in nearly USD 380,000 in additional costs (USD 325,000 in health service costs and USD 55,000 in household and society costs). This is equivalent to a cost of more than USD 7,000 per patient [12].

There are many primary studies conducted on the treatment outcome and associated factors of DR-TB. These primary studies provided variations in the estimate of the prevalence and associated factors of LTFU among DR-TB patients. Some systematic reviews and meta-analyses were published on poor treatment outcomes [13,14]. However, the outcome measurement in the review published by Eshetie S. et al included unevaluated patients in the computation of LTFU. Our review excluded those patients whose treatment outcome was ‘not evaluated’ (including transfer outs and patients still on treatment). To determine the final treatment outcome of a patient, that patient should go through the recommended regimen duration. As such, the prevalence of LTFU may be under estimated in the mentioned review article due to large size of the denominator. The other review by Tola H. et al was concerned about treatment non adherence (including intermittent treatment and LTFU together) among any TB patients, not only among DR-TB patients [14].

Other systematic reviews generally considered factors associated with good or poor treatment outcomes. Here the poor outcome included death, treatment failure, treatment default and/or LTFU together. There is no pooled evidence on the factors associated, specifically, with treatment LTFU which is an important outcome related to the development of acquired drug resistance and of course playing an important role in the transmission of DR-TB within the community. Therefore, this review was aimed at estimating the prevalence of LTFU and associated factors among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia.

Methods

Study design

A systematic review and Meta-analysis of published and unpublished studies was used to determine pooled prevalence of LTFU and its predictors among MDR-TB patients in Ethiopia. The review was reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement [15].

Protocol and registration

Initially, databases were searched to check for the same systematic review in order to avoid duplicates. PubMed, Cochrane/Wiley Library and the international prospective register of systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO) were explored to confirm whether previous systematic review and/or meta-analyses existed with the same topic. This systematic review and meta-analysis were registered at PROSPERO with registration number of CRD42020153326.

Inclusion criteria

The inclusion criteria were delimited using the PECOS components.

  • Patient: patients with drug resistant tuberculosis by which their treatment outcome was known and reported based on the national DR TB treatment guideline [5].

  • Exposure: Being on MDR-TB treatment

  • Comparison: No

  • Outcome: lost to follow-up from MDR TB treatment defined as treatment interruption for two or more consecutive months (8 weeks) for any reason without medical approval [7].

  • Study design: Observational studies including cross-sectional and cohort studies.

Time and language: Articles published from 2009-May 2020 were included. The year 2009 is the year when Ethiopia started DR-TB treatment within a separate treatment center.

Geographical location: studies conducted exclusively in Ethiopia

Exclusion criteria

  • Studies which were conducted exclusively among special populations like children, HIV/AIDS patients or only among patients with other comorbid conditions.

  • Studies which provide only interim outcomes (defined as ≤9 months for shorter treatment regimen and ≤18 months for longer treatment regimen) to avoid bias towards a lower LTFU.

  • Studies conducted among fewer than 50 participants

  • Studies in which all patients had XDR TB or mono resistant TB

Information sources

To access published primary studies PubMed, Health Inter Network Access to Research Initiative (HINARI) and CINAHL database sources were extensively searched. To supplement the electronic data base searches, the online archives of the International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease was searched for applicable studies. Grey literatures were retrieved using Google and google scholar electronic search engines. Research repository sites in Ethiopia like Addis Ababa University and National Academic Digital Library of Ethiopia (NADLE) were also searched. Following a snowballing system, the reference lists of the retrieved studies were probed to collect articles that are not accessible through databases as well as electronic search engines. The correspondence authors were contacted via e-mail for articles with incomplete information and responses were waited for a month. The last literature search was performed on May 20, 2020. We subscribed updates of new articles from PubMed and International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. These updates were awaited until June 17, 2020.

Search strategy

We searched for articles that included any combination of the following search terms in their singular or plural form in their title, abstract, keywords, and text: “treatment outcome”, “poor treatment outcome”, “treatment default”, “lost to follow-up”, “unfavorable treatment outcome”, “multi drug resistant tuberculosis”, “MDR-TB”, “drug resistant tuberculosis” and “Ethiopia”. The search was restricted to human species and published since 2009 limiters. The Boolean operators like “OR” and “AND” were used to combine terms and form the search syntax (S1 File).

Study selection

The article searches and screening activity was done by two reviewers (AA and SZ). Articles were exported and managed using EndNote V.7, duplicates were identified and removed. The remaining articles were evaluated for eligibility by topic, abstract and full text levels. Unrelated topics and studies conducted out of Ethiopia were rejected. The abstracts and full texts of the remaining studies were reviewed. Those articles with incomplete information, by which their authors were unable to provide the missed information through e-mail contact, were excluded from the review.

Data extraction process

We developed a data extraction sheet using Microsoft excel worksheet, pre-tested on five randomly-selected included studies, and modified the checklist accordingly. One review author (AA) extracted the data from included studies and the second author (SZ) checked the extracted data. Disagreements were resolved by discussion between the two review authors and there was no unresolved disagreement. We contacted the corresponding authors of selected studies through e-mail to get additional data on the factors associated with the LTFU. After waiting for one month, only three authors responded and provided numerical data that has been used to compute effect sizes.

Data items

Information was extracted from each included study on:

  1. Study characteristics such as the name of correspondence author, publication year, study year, study setting/region/institution, sample size, study design, primary outcome and quality score

  2. Participant characteristics such as sex, HIV status, comorbidity, BMI, previous treatment history, treatment category and anatomical site of TB

  3. Outcomes such as the number of lost to follow-up and/or other MDR-TB treatment outcomes.

Risk of bias in individual studies

The quality assessment appraisal was performed by two independent assessors (AA and SZ) using the standardized Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tool prepared for cross-sectional studies and cohort studies [1618]. The tools have ‘Yes’, ‘No’, ‘Unclear’ or ‘not applicable’ responses, and scores were given 1 for ‘Yes’, 0 for ‘No’ and ‘Unclear’ responses. Scores for each item were summed up and transformed into percentages. The average score of the two independent assessors were taken. Only studies that scored ≥50% were considered for systematic review and meta-analysis.

Summary measures

For the prevalence review the effect measure was prevalence of LTFU which is the percentage of participants with LTFU among MDR-TB patients (n/N*100). The Odds Ratio (OR) with its 95% confidence interval was the primary measure of effect size for the associated factors.

Methods of analysis

The extracted data were exported to STATA/SE V.14 for the meta-analysis. The existence of heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the forest plot, the Cochrane Q statistics and the I2. The forest plot provides a visual inspection of the confidence intervals of effect sizes of individual studies. The presence of non-overlapping intervals suggest heterogeneity. Significance of heterogeneity was declared using Q statistics at p-value <0.1 [19]. Whereas, I2 values of 25%, 50% and 75% were considered as low, moderate, and high heterogeneity, respectively [20]. The Freeman-Tukey (double arcsine) transformation was performed to avoid the large weight gained by studies with extreme prevalence [21,22]. The confidence intervals were computed using the exact method [22]. The DerSimonian and Laird (D-L) method for the random effects model was applied in the meta-analysis of the prevalence and associated factors of lost to follow-up [23].

Risk of bias across studies

Funnel plot was used to detect and examine publication and small study biases. The funnel plot asymmetry was statistically checked using Egger’s test [24] and Begg’s test [25]. Accordingly, asymmetry of the funnel plot and/or statistical significance of Egger’s regression test and Begg’s rank correlation test (p<0.05) were suggestive of publication or small study bias.

Additional analyses

Subgroup analysis was performed by using the region and publication year as grouping variables and sources of variation. Meta regression was also conducted for the prevalence review using study characteristics such as region, sample size and mean age as covariates. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for the prevalence meta-analysis but not for the associated factors due to small number of included studies.

Results

Study selection

A total of 1,198 studies were found through electronic searches. About 52 full text articles were assessed for eligibility. Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. But, only 11 studies were eligible for meta-analysis (Fig 1).

Fig 1. PRISMA flow diagram of included studies in the systematic review and meta-analysis of lost to follow-up and associated factors among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 1

Study characteristics

From the twelve selected studies for qualitative synthesis, 9 studies were retrospective cohort [2634], 2 cross sectionals [35,36] and 1 prospective cohort study [37]. The publication year range from 2014 to 2020. Regarding the study area, 3 studies were conducted in Amhara region [26,27,30], 3 in Oromia region [28,33,34], 1 in Addis Ababa [35], 1 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People (SNNP) [29] and the rest four were conducted in multiple regions of the country [31,32,36,37]. The study period ranged from 3 years to 10 years. These studies were conducted among 3,923 participants. The smallest and largest sample sizes were 136 [33] and 680 [35], respectively. This review was concerned only about participants whose final treatment outcome were ascertained and hence excluded those participants who were on treatment during the study periods or who were transferred out to other treatment centers. Therefore, after excluding patients still on treatment and transferred out, the effective sample size ranged from 90 [27] to 612 [37] and comprised a total of 3,510 participants. These effective sample sizes were the samples which were used as a denominator for the calculation of the prevalence of LTFU. Regarding the primary outcome of included studies, four studies determined successful (favorable) treatment outcome [27,32,33,35], three studies poor (unfavorable) treatment outcomes [26,34,37], three studies focused on death [28,29,31], one study determined LTFU [30], and one study determined all treatment outcomes [36]. In all studies, the proportion of LTFU was either separately reported or could be computed from the available data (Table 1).

Table 1. The characteristics of studies included in the systematic review and meta-analysis on lost to follow-up and associated factors among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Author Pub. Year Region Study period Study design Sample size Effective sample* Statistical model Mean Age Primary outcome
Alene et al [26] 2017 Amhara 2010–2015 Retro. Cohort 242 216 Cox prop.haz 34 Poor outcome
Baye et al [27] 2018 Amhara 2012–2016 Retro. Cohort 141 90 Chi-square 30.87 Successful outcome
Fantaw et al [28] 2018 Oromia 2013–2017 Retro. Cohort 164 142 Cox prop.haz 31.5 Death
Girum et al [29] 2017 SNNP 2013–2017 Retro. Cohort 154 98 Cox prop.haz 28 Death
Kassa et al [30] 2019 Amhara 2010–2017 Retro. Cohort 332 290 Gompertz reg 31 LTFU
Mequanint et al [35] 2014 A/A 2011–2013 Cross sectional 680 550 Logistic reg. 30 Successful outcome
Meressa et al [37] 2015 Multiple 2009–2014 Prosp. Cohort 612 612 Cox prop.haz 28.3 Poor outcome
Molla et al [36] 2017 Multiple 2012–2014 Cross sectional 178 176 Descriptive N/R All outcomes
Shimbre et al [31] 2020 Multiple 2009–2016 Retro. Cohort 462 404 Cox prop.haz 28.7 Death/failure
Tola et al [32] 2019 Multiple 2009–2019 Retro. Cohort 407 407 Poisson reg 31.8 Successful outcome
Wakjira et al [33] 2019 Oromia 2012–2016 Retro. Cohort 136 110 Logistic reg. 32.12 Favorable outcome
Woldeyohannes et al [34] 2019 Oromia 2012–2017 Retro. Cohort 415 415 Cox prop.haz 28 (median) Unfavorable outcome

*Sample size after the ineligible population was reduced, i.e., MDR-TB patients who were still on treatment or transferred out. Since the final treatment outcome cannot be ascertained for these population, we reduced from the calculation of the prevalence of LTFU.

N/R: Not Reported.

A/A: Addis Ababa.

Risk of bias within studies

The JBI check list was used to assess the quality of individual studies. The checklists for prevalence, analytical cross-sectional and cohort studies were used with the respective study designs. The scoring was performed by assigning 1 for yes, 0 for no and uncertain. Accordingly, all selected studies fulfilled the 50% quality assessment score for the qualitative synthesis. However, one study was excluded for the meta-analysis due to the fact that the outcome variable (LTFU) was not clearly reported (S2 File).

Synthesis of results

Prevalence of lost to follow-up

Based on the eligibility criteria 11 studies were selected for meta-analysis of the prevalence of LTFU. The pooled random effects prevalence was 8.66% (95% CI 5.01–13.14; p < 0.001). There was a high heterogeneity between studies as evidenced by a significant heterogeneity chi-squared statistic (Q = 153.50 (d.f. = 10), p <0.001) and I2 = 93.49% with p<0.001. The estimate of between-study variance (Tau-squared) was 0.05 (Fig 2).

Fig 2. Forest plot of the pooled prevalence of lost to follow-up among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 2

Sub group analysis by region

From the subgroup analysis performed by region, there was no heterogeneity among studies conducted in Amhara, Oromia and other (A/A and SNNP) regions. But there is still high heterogeneity among studies conducted at least in multiple regions. The prevalence of LTFU was 11.84% (95% CI, 6.33–14.58), 2.21% (95% CI, 0.63–4.53), 11.27% (95% CI, 6.00–17.90), and 3.05% (95% CI, 1.81–4.57) in Amhara, Oromia, multiple regions and others, respectively (Fig 3).

Fig 3. Forest plot for the sub-group analysis of the prevalence of lost to follow-up among patients with MDR-TB by study region in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 3

Subgroup analysis by year of publication

There was no difference in the prevalence of LTFU between studies published before 2017 and after 2017. The within group heterogeneity was high in both groups. The sub-groups pooled prevalence was also similar with the overall pooled prevalence. That means the overall heterogeneity was not explained by publication year (Fig 4).

Fig 4. Forest plot for the sub-group analysis of the prevalence of lost to follow-up among patients with MDR-TB by publication (study) year in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 4

Meta regression

We further investigated the heterogeneity using different statistical techniques to identify the source of heterogeneity. A meta-regression was performed using region, sample size and mean age as covariates and by specifying the REML method for estimating the between-study variance. None of these variables were statistically significant for explaining the heterogeneity (Table 2).

Table 2. Factors related with heterogeneity of the prevalence of lost to follow-up among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia, 2014–2020.
Variables Coefficients (95%CI) p-value
Amhara 0.0040892 (-0.1186345, 0.1268129) 0.938
Oromia -0.0910473 (-0.2611571, 0.0790624) 0.238
Addis Ababa -0.0984228 (-0.229194, 0.0323485) 0.115
SNNP 0.0892953 (-0.1695685, 0.348159) 0.431
Multiple regions Reference
Sample size -0.0000943 (-0.0003558, 0.0001673) 0.436
Mean age 0.0024965 (-0.0282739, 0.0332669) 0.856

Sensitivity analysis

To check the influence of a single study on the effect size, a sensitivity analysis was performed using the random effects model and none of the studies had significant influence (Fig 5).

Fig 5. Sensitivity analysis for single study influence on the prevalence of LTFU in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 5

Risk of bias across studies

The presence of publication bias was assessed using funnel plot, Egger’s and Begg’s statistical tests at 5% level of significance. The funnel plot was performed by labeling the prevalence (the effect size) to the x-axis and standard error of the prevalence to the y-axis. There was no a significant publication or small study effect as evidenced by symmetrical funnel plot and insignificant Egger’s test (p = 0.670) and Begg’s test (p = 0.815) (Fig 6).

Fig 6. A funnel plot for publication bias of lost to follow-up among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 6

Factors associated with lost to follow-up

Data were obtained only from 4 studies [26,28,30,32] for the identification of the factors associated with LTFU. Other studies were not included because the information to compute the effect sizes were not available. From these studies, only one [30] was primarily conducted to determine the factors associated with lost to follow-up. The rest three [26,28,32] were included after the necessary data were obtained through e-mail communication with authors. The meta-analysis was performed to determine the effects of five variables including sex, HIV status, history of previous treatment, comorbidities and anatomical site of TB. From the five variables, only one (anatomical site of TB) had statistically significant effect on the prevalence of LTFU. Additional analysis like subgroup analysis, meta regression and sensitivity analysis were not performed due to the small number of studies included.

Effect of anatomical site of MDR-TB on lost to follow-up

The odds of LTFU among patients with pulmonary MDR-TB was 50% less compared to patients with extra-pulmonary MDR-TB (OR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.27,0.96). The included studies had no significant heterogeneity (I2 = 0, p = 0.912) (Fig 7).

Fig 7. Forest plot of the pooled effect of anatomical site of TB on lost to follow-up among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 7

Risk of bias across studies used in the identification of the associated factors

A funnel plot was plotted by labeling the log of the effect size (log OR) to the x-axis and the standard error of the log (OR) to the y-axis. There was no significant publication or small study effect as evidenced by the symmetrical funnel plot, insignificant Egger’s test (p = 0.633) and Begg’s test (p = 0.174) (Fig 8).

Fig 8. A funnel plot for publication bias of the effect of anatomical site of TB on lost to follow-up among patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia from 2014–2020.

Fig 8

Discussion

This systematic review and meta-analysis were aimed at estimating the pooled prevalence and associated factors of lost to follow-up among drug resistant TB patients in Ethiopia.

The pooled estimate of the prevalence of lost to follow-up was found to be 8.66%. This estimate was considerable compared with the maximum global target of MDR/RR-TB unsuccessful treatment outcome which is aimed to be at most 10% [1]. Here it is good to remember that unsuccessful treatment outcome consists of interruption, LTFU, failure and death. Even if we did not get a separate target for LTFU, this pooled prevalence can be considered as high relative to the global target of unsuccessful treatment outcome. This prevalence of LTFU implies that a significant number of DR-TB patients was discontinued from their recommended treatment before they reached to the recommended duration. These people eventually live with the community signifying a high rate of transmission of the disease within the public. On the other hand, these defaulted patients are at a higher risk of progressing to the next level of DR TB and death [12]. Therefore, the burden of DR-TB in the country will escalate as the prevalence of lost to follow-up increases.

The sub group analysis indicated that there was a variation in the prevalence of LTFU across regions in the country. The highest prevalence of lost to follow-up was observed in Amhara region which was 11.84%. This is a signal for the Amhara region to work hardly on reducing LTFU and further investigation of why the region has higher LTFU is important.

The anatomical site of TB was significantly associated with the prevalence of LTFU. Those patients with pulmonary TB were 50% less likely to loss from treatment follow-up than patients with extra pulmonary TB. This difference may be attributed to the nature of the disease and the treatment regimens followed in these patients. Patients with PTB are more symptomatic than patients with EPTB [38]. As a patient shows signs and symptoms, that patient may develop an illness psychology which in turn initiates the patient to accept advises from the health care workers in the urge to avoid signs and symptoms. This may help PTB patients to adhere to the recommended duration of TB treatment compared to EPTB patients. On the other hand, most pulmonary TB patients are managed using the shorter treatment regimen lasting 9–12 months. Compared to the extra pulmonary TB patients by which most of them are managed with the longer treatment regimen (18–20 months), pulmonary TB patients had a lesser burden of treatment helping them to complete the whole duration [5]. This may alert health care providers to follow extra pulmonary TB patients with a better emphasis than PTB patients.

Other factors like sex, HIV status, history of previous treatment, and comorbidities were not significantly associated with LTFU. But this does not mean that these variables had no effect on LTFU rather the current studies may not be sufficient to detect the effect of these factors.

Strengths of the study

Unlike previous reviews, this review included both published and unpublished studies. In addition, final outcomes were measured from eligible population i.e., patients who completed their treatment regimen duration.

Limitations of the study

This review determined the prevalence of lost to follow-up in the presence of high heterogeneity among individual studies which limits the direct interpretation of pooled estimates. In addition, factors were not explored adequately due to the lack of data among individual studies. Due to this, small number of studies were included in the analysis of the effect of few factors associated with lost to follow-up and this ended up with insignificant effect sizes across the included variables. Knowing the moment when patients lost from follow-up could also be useful to evaluate the influence of the length of treatment and to identify the moment of greatest risk of LTFU in both presentations of the disease (PTB & EPTB). However, the data available from the included studies was not sufficient to fill this gap. Moreover, the issue of generalizability was in question since the studies were not from all regions of the country.

Conclusions

The prevalence of lost to follow-up among MDR-TB patients in Ethiopia was high with observed differences across regions. The anatomical site of MDR-TB was significantly associated with lost to follow-up. Strengthening patient centered monitoring system to tackle the obstacles of treatment compliance both on the patient side and in the health care system is important to reduce LTFU. Health care professionals working in MDR-TB treatment centers should provide counseling on treatment continuation giving a special emphasis to extra pulmonary MDR-TB patients. One of the challenges we encountered in this review were lack of studies conducted exclusively on lost to follow-up. Thus, researchers are recommended to conduct primary studies focusing lost to follow-up as a primary outcome. Moreover, it is good to conduct individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis to get pooled estimates of effect sizes for the associated factors using currently available primary studies.

Supporting information

S1 File. The search strategies for selected data bases.

(DOCX)

S2 File. The quality assessment score of included studies.

(DOCX)

S3 File. PRISMA 2009 checklist.

(DOC)

S4 File. Review protocol.

(DOCX)

S1 Dataset. Prevalence of LTFU.

(DTA)

S2 Dataset. Factors associated with LTFU.

(DTA)

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge authors of primary studies who provided us additional information for the meta-analysis.

Data Availability

All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting information files.

Funding Statement

The authors received no specific funding for this work.

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Decision Letter 0

Claudia Marotta

4 Feb 2021

PONE-D-20-24675

Lost to follow-up and associated factors among patients with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Assefa,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

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Claudia Marotta

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Journal Requirements:

When submitting your revision, we need you to address these additional requirements.

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2. During our initial in-house review, we found the following reference investigating a similar research question as your study:

Prevalence of tuberculosis treatment non-adherence in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/iuatld/ijtld/2019/00000023/00000006/art00015

Please discuss how the current manuscript advances on this previous work in your introduction and/or discussion section.

3. We note that your quality assessment in your supplemental material as the criteria numbered, but does not state what numbers correlate to which criteria. Please add an additional page to this file, stating what each number correlates to.

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 "The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript"

At this time, please address the following queries:

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Please include your amended statements within your cover letter; we will change the online submission form on your behalf.

6. We note you have included a table to which you do not refer in the text of your manuscript. Please ensure that you refer to Table 2 in your text; if accepted, production will need this reference to link the reader to the Table.

7. Please include a copy of Table 3 which you refer to in your text on page 15.

Additional Editor Comments:

dear authors follow reviewers suggestion to improve your paper

[Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.]

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: 8% loss to follow up is not a large proportion for patients on second line if compared to global treatment outcomes.

Two very minor things need to be revised:

1- There is a misconception about the term cohort studies and cohort analysis, so there is a copied mistake in my opinion. Cohort studies look for difference in risk due to exposure, while cohort analysis for a treatment group focuses on treatment outcomes.

2- References writing need to be revised, e.g. reference no.29 did not identify the journal

Reviewer #2: It's a very interesting and important strudy. But... there are some aspects to review.

1: page 15 line 282: may to say "Table 2".

2. Figure 5: doesnt exist...

3. In Introduction there are 13 articles of the bibliography, but in the discussion you have only used 2 articles. I think the Discussion may have your results compared or analyzed against some of the results obtaines in the studies you have analyzed.

Good work....

Reviewer #3: Although the authors have included few articles (11) at the end of the PRISMA selection, they have used techniques of verification to rule out possible publication biases and have managed well to estimate the prevalence of LTFU in Ethiopia.

The authors also concluded that patients with extrapulmonary forms have greater LTFU than patients with pulmonary forms. They also reported that there are three types of therapeutic regimens, and that patients with extrapulmonary forms use longer regimens.

The authors attribute LTFU to the clinical presentation of TB. Considering that extrapulmonary forms have a longer pre-diagnostic morbidity period, which could compensate for the willingness to complete the treatment, I believe that a discussion on the reasons for LTFU should be further explored, especially the burden of pills and the length of treatment.

Knowing the moment when patients LTFU of the treatment can also be useful to evaluate the influence of the length of treatment and to identify the moment of greatest risk of LTFU in both presentations of the disease.

Maybe the data available is not enough to fill these recommendation. Then I suggest the authors to include as a limitation of the study.

**********

6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

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Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: Yes: Layth Al-Salihi

Reviewer #2: No

Reviewer #3: No

[NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.]

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PLoS One. 2021 Mar 18;16(3):e0248687. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248687.r002

Author response to Decision Letter 0


10 Feb 2021

Response to points raised by the academic editor

1. We have checked each section and all are inline with the PLOS ONE’s style requirement.

2. We have discussed how the current manuscript advances on the stated previous work in the introduction section of the manuscript (page 5, line 92-100)

3. We included an additional text on the previous document to correlate each number to the listed assessment criteria (S2_file)

4. The publication date range used to find articles included in the methods section (page 7, line 129).

5. Financial disclosure stated as ‘The authors received no specific funding for this work’ (page 21, line 394)

6. The cited table i.e., ‘Table 3’ in the text was replaced by ‘Table 2’ (page 15, line 284).

7. The cited table was wrong (editorial problem) and corrected as stated in number 6 above.

Response to reviewers’ comments

Reviewer #1

• The 8% LTFU was stated as high by comparing it with the aspired global target of 90% treatment success. It is corrected as considerable (page 18, line 332).

1. The study design labeled as ‘cohort’ was directly taken from the articles. As the reviewer raised, there is no any true cohort study that compared exposed and unexposed groups with respect to the outcome. But there are cohort analyzed studies focusing only a single group to determine the outcome. Therefore, what we could do as systematic review is to write the design that the primary researcher wrote.

2. The references list was corrected to fit with the journal requirement (page 24-25, line 475-489).

Reviewer #2

1. The cited table was changed from Table 3 to Table 2 (page 15, line 284)

2. Figure 5 was available. We do not know whether the copy sent to this reviewer had a problem. Still, it is attached as a separate file labeled as ‘Fig5’.

3. Regarding few numbers of articles cited in the discussion while there were 13 references in the introduction,

Most of the citations in the introduction were global reports and documents other than research articles. There was a shortage of similar reviews on LTFU which could be used in the discussion section. That is why we compared our finding the global target. Therefore, it is due to the lack of similar findings in line with our review that forced us to cite only 2 references in the discussion section. We have added 2 more references in the discussion to support our explanation about the finding (page 18, line 340 and page 19, line 351)

Reviewer #3

We have added references that support our explanation (page 18, line 340 and page 19, line 351)

In the limitation section, we added the importance of knowing the moment of LTFU and our inability to include this information in our analysis (page 20, line 373-376).

Attachment

Submitted filename: Response to Reviewers.docx

Decision Letter 1

Claudia Marotta

4 Mar 2021

Lost to follow-up and associated factors among patients with drug resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PONE-D-20-24675R1

Dear Dr. Assefa,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

An invoice for payment will follow shortly after the formal acceptance. To ensure an efficient process, please log into Editorial Manager at http://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/, click the 'Update My Information' link at the top of the page, and double check that your user information is up-to-date. If you have any billing related questions, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org.

If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org.

Kind regards,

Claudia Marotta

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

dear authors congratulations

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.

Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed

Reviewer #2: (No Response)

**********

2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: The authors perfectly defended themselves and gave appropriate revisions. The study is sound for publication

Reviewer #2: Wee think this study contribute to the knowledge of the TB situation in Ethiopia and can help to improve the TB programme.

The document have two versions of the study. I think the last with modifications is the corrected for publication

**********

7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: Yes: Layth Al-Salihi

Reviewer #2: No

Acceptance letter

Claudia Marotta

8 Mar 2021

PONE-D-20-24675R1

Lost to follow-up and associated factors among patients with drug resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Dear Dr. Andargie:

I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now with our production department.

If your institution or institutions have a press office, please let them know about your upcoming paper now to help maximize its impact. If they'll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information please contact onepress@plos.org.

If we can help with anything else, please email us at plosone@plos.org.

Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE and supporting open access.

Kind regards,

PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff

on behalf of

Dr. Claudia Marotta

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Associated Data

    This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

    Supplementary Materials

    S1 File. The search strategies for selected data bases.

    (DOCX)

    S2 File. The quality assessment score of included studies.

    (DOCX)

    S3 File. PRISMA 2009 checklist.

    (DOC)

    S4 File. Review protocol.

    (DOCX)

    S1 Dataset. Prevalence of LTFU.

    (DTA)

    S2 Dataset. Factors associated with LTFU.

    (DTA)

    Attachment

    Submitted filename: Response to Reviewers.docx

    Data Availability Statement

    All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting information files.


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