Abstract
Background
Protection afforded from prior disease among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is unknown. If infection provides substantial long-lasting immunity, it may be appropriate to reconsider vaccination distribution plans.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study of one multi-hospital health system included 150,325 patients tested for COVID-19 infection via PCR from March 12, 2020 to August 30, 2020. Testing performed up to February 24, 2021 in these patients was included for analysis. The main outcome was reinfection, defined as infection ≥ 90 days after initial testing. Secondary outcomes were symptomatic infection and protection of prior infection against reinfection.
Results
Of 150,325 patients, 8,845 (5.9%) tested positive and 141,480 (94.1%) tested negative prior to August 30. 1,278 (14.4%) of the positive patients were retested after 90 days, and 62 had possible reinfection. Of those, 31 (50%) were symptomatic. Of those with initial negative testing, 5,449 (3.9%) were subsequently positive and 3,191 of those (58.5%) were symptomatic. Protection offered from prior infection was 81.8% (95% confidence interval 76.6 to 85.8), and against symptomatic infection was 84.5% (95% confidence interval 77.9 to 89.1). This protection increased over time.
Conclusions
Prior infection in patients with COVID-19 was highly protective against reinfection and symptomatic disease. This protection increased over time, suggesting that viral shedding or ongoing immune response may persist beyond 90 days and may not represent true reinfection. As vaccine supply is limited, patients with known history of COVID-19 could delay early vaccination to allow for the most vulnerable to access the vaccine and slow transmission.
Keywords: COVID-19, reinfection, protective effectiveness