Abstract
China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21. Additionally, the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific (WNP). Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China, but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles. Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward, inducing cold surges in China. Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season. Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events, its influences on individual events still need to be quantified. Additionally, the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.
Key words: extreme weather and climate events, climate variability, climate change, summer floods, winter cold surge, typhoon activity
Abstract
中国在2020年夏季经历了严重的洪水灾害, 在2020/21年冬季遭遇多次超级寒潮袭击. 此外, 西北太平洋在前半个台风季只有很少的台风生成. 三大洋 (太平洋、 印度洋和大西洋) 的海温对2020年夏季中国强降水均有贡献, 但是大西洋和印度洋起到主导作用. 西伯利亚高压的增强和移动造成西风急流弯曲, 从而使冷的极地气团向南输送, 进而形成袭击我国的超级寒潮. 西北太平洋异常强的垂直风切变和异常低的大气湿度导致前半个台风季西北太平洋台风的生成较少. 虽然全球变暖被认为能够增加极端天气气候事件的发生频次, 但是它对单个事件的影响仍需要被量化. 另外, 2021年2月16-18日发生在美国的超级寒潮与2020/21中国冬季的超级寒潮具有相似的形成机制.
关键词: 极端天气气候事件, 气候变率, 气候变化, 夏季洪水, 冬季寒潮, 台风活动
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41731173), the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFA0606701), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. XDB42000000 and XDA20060502), the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (Grant No. GML2019ZD0306), the Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. ISEE2018PY06), and the Leading Talents of Guangdong Province Program.
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