Hello! How are we doing after one year of COVID-19?

Although prophecies of a new viral pandemic were common in infectious disease circles, SARS-CoV-2 was an unpleasant surprise for most epidemiologists. Its worldwide impact has been existential for many—and economic, social and psychological for all. ‘Epidemiology’ has entered the vernacular.

The pandemic confronted us with our personal vulnerability. It lifted the lid on poverty, unjust health and socioeconomic inequality, and the often lamentable care of our older citizens. Epidemiological preventive advice to political authorities was adopted—to varying degrees. Predictably, communities’ responses varied. The result was the full spectrum: from apparent success to abject failure in developing and implementing the classical preventive programmes of quarantine, lockdown, case-finding, contact tracing and mask-wearing.

Within remarkably short order, the genetics and biology of the virus were unravelled, leading to the development of vaccines.

As researchers ‘at a distance’, we pay a sincere tribute to the front-line workers in this global crisis; we honour the memory of those who have succumbed to the deadly enemy. Estimates suggest that more than 3000 health care workers worldwide have died of COVID-19 and related complications.

This journal (and many others) has experienced a surge in submissions relating to COVID-19. PubMed records the publication of 104 343 papers on Covid—the first in November 2019—compared with, for interest, 321 685 papers on smoking—the first published in 1811.

It was inevitable that many papers sent to us were written in haste and, almost always, with incomplete data. We appreciate the authors’ goodwill in responding to our requests to make their contributions as robust as possible. Our papers cover the spectrum, from fieldwork reports through to sophisticated modelling. Yet, there remain many epidemiological features of the pandemic to be elucidated.

Siddhartha Mukherjee, a distinguished New York oncologist, geneticist and author, wrote an article in a recent issue of The New Yorker entitled ‘The Covid Conundrum’. Mukherjee’s conundrum was the huge and puzzling differences in the frequency of COVID-19 among countries. ‘Many regions’, he noted, ‘report a COVID-19 death rate that’s a hundredth of the US rate’.¹

Likewise, in The Economist, reference is made to the 160 000 recorded deaths from COVID-19 in India: ‘as a share of its nearly 1.4 bn people, the tally is miniscule, despite a huge outbreak. A national survey of blood samples suggests that by December (2020) some 22% of Indians had been exposed to [SARS-CoV-2], 30 times the official tally of around 11 m cases to date. If that estimate is right and if India’s fatality rate had been as high as, say, Britain’s, there would have been some 10 m deaths’.²

Beside our incomplete epidemiological understanding of the virus and its behaviour, which deserves our further attention, there are lessons to learn from controlling COVID-19. Francis Collins, Director of the US National Institutes of Health, writing recently in an editorial in Science, pointed to several, among them being the value that comes from technological readiness to respond to future pandemics with even faster vaccine development. This requires long-term investment; Collins writes that ‘working out the details of a messenger RNA strategy, for instance, was a 25-year journey’.³ He is also enthusiastic about enhancing our therapeutic agent development processes and those that underpin rapid diagnostic testing. To this we might add the strengthening of public health services, the better to respond to future epidemics.

Dorothy Porter, a distinguished historian of medicine and public health, wrote that ‘An epidemic is a sudden disastrous event in the same way as a hurricane, an earthquake or a flood. Such events reveal many facets of the societies with which they collide’.⁴ COVID-19 has illuminated strengths, and weaknesses, in many places—for example: the willingness (or not) of politicians to change course, based on scientific advice; the trust people do (or do not) place in political leaders; the importance of simple, consistent and inclusive communications in a time of crisis; and the great advantage enjoyed by countries that invested substantially in pandemic control before the event.⁵

So, Thank You!

We are immensely grateful to our Editorial Board and reviewers, who enabled us to handle both the COVID-19 surge in papers and the journal’s standard workload simultaneously, and to the fellowship of the International Epidemiological Association for their continuing support. This mighty unpaid workforce is, together with those who contribute articles, the backbone of the journal. The reviewers who assisted us in 2020 are acknowledged in the following pages.

We also acknowledge our colleagues who have aided us during this past year, especially the editorial team here in Sydney and our publisher, Oxford University Press. None of us was immune to the stress associated with COVID-19.

Thank you all for your contributions to refining and developing our science of epidemiology.

Conflict of interest

None declared.

IJE Reviewers for 2020

  Peter Aaby (Guinea-Bissau)

Emil Aas Stoltenberg (Norway)

Ali Abbasi (UK)

Sam Abbott (UK)

Safa Abdalla (Ireland)

Abdel Abdellaoui (Netherlands)

Michal Abrahamowicz (Canada)

Simone Accordini (Italy)

Manfred Accrombessi (UK)

Tim Adair (Australia)

Vittorio Addona (USA)

George Agogo (USA)

Ngozichukwuka Agu (USA)

Bárbara Aguiar (Portugal)

Ari Ahola-Olli (Finland)

Linda Ahrenfeldt (Denmark)

Alexander Aiken (UK)

Kylie Ainslie (UK)

Ahmed Al-Jaishi (Canada)

Stacey Alexeeff (USA)

Ishrat Ali (Australia)

Rodrigue Allodji (France)

Benjamin Althouse (USA)

Alexessander Alves (UK)

Soter Ameh (Nigeria)

Heresh Amini (Denmark)

Nayyereh Aminisani (Australia)

Mariana Amorim (Portugal)

Berit Andersen (Denmark)

Craig Anderson (UK)

Emma Anderson (UK)

G Brooke Anderson (USA)

José Leopoldo Antunes (Brazil)

Izzuddin Aris (USA)

Osamu Arisaka (Japan)

B Armstrong (UK)

Jasleen Arneja (Canada)

Ozgur Asar (Turkey)

Jillian Ashley-Martin (USA)

Asa Auta (UK)

Philippe Autier (France)

Peter Baade (Australia)

Helena Backman (Sweden)

Chris Bailie (Australia)

Donna Baird (USA)

Beverley Balkau (France)

Joan Ballester (Spain)

Hailey Banack (USA)

David Bann (UK)

Finian Bannon (UK)

M Barbieri (USA)

Cristina Barboza Solis (Costa Rica)

Kieron Barclay (UK)

Tim Barrow (UK)

Wisdom Basera (South Africa)

Michael Bates (USA)

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Ken Beath (Australia)

Robin Beaumont (UK)

Julien Beauté (Sweden)

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Pablo Belaunzaran-Zamudio (Mexico)

Joshua Bell (UK)

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Anna Boef (Netherlands)

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Christina Bohk-Ewald (Finland)

Marialaura Bonaccio (Italy)

Julia Bond (USA)

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Carme Borrell (Spain)

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Christian Bottomley (UK)

Thomas Bourdrel (France)

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llen Brooks-Pollock (UK)

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eksandra Buha (Serbia)

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Yu Chen (China)

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Yiling Cheng (USA)

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[Database]

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