Fig. 1.

Performance of COV50 on top of other baseline risk factors in the derivation cohort to discriminate death from survival (panels A-C) and progression from non-progression in the time point 1 WHO score during follow-up (panels D-F) in the derivation cohort

The base model included sex, age, body mass index and the presence of comorbidities: hypertension, heart failure, diabetes or cancer. In subsequent steps, the time point 1 WHO score was added and next COV50 as a continuously distributed variable (panels B and E) or as a categorised variable based on an optimised threshold of 0.47 for mortality (panel C) or 0.04 for a worsening WHO score (panel F).