Table 1.
Prior probability that each Dose Level is the MTD for differing σβ, δ=0.06
| Dose level | Prior SD of slope parameter β, σβ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | σβLI = 0.265 | √1.34 =1.16 | |
| 1 (200 mg) | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| 2 (400 mg) | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| 3 (600 mg) | 0.54 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| 4 (800 mg) | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| 5 (1000 mg) | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
Note: a large σβ does not necessarily correspond to an uninformative prior for MTD level; √1.34 is often chosen as the default value for CRM models. The least informative value of σβ is one where there are almost equal prior probabilities (chance) that each dose level is the MTD across the 5 dose levels