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. 2021 Jul 13;16(7):e0254082. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254082

Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV: A secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of individuals attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania

Werner M Maokola 1,2,*, Bernard J Ngowi 3, Michael J Mahande 2, Jim Todd 4,5, Masanja Robert 6, Sia E Msuya 2
Editor: Katalin Andrea Wilkinson7
PMCID: PMC8277069  PMID: 34255776

Abstract

Background

Information on how well Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) works on reducing TB incidence among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in routine settings using robust statistical methods to establish causality in observational studies is scarce.

Objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness of IPT in routine clinical settings by comparing TB incidence between IPT and non-IPT groups.

Methods

We used data from PLHIV enrolled in 315 HIV care and treatment clinic from January 2012 to December 2016. We used Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting to adjust for the probability of receiving IPT; balancing the baseline covariates between IPT and non-IPT groups. The effectiveness of IPT on TB incidence was estimated using Cox regression using the weighted sample.

Results

Of 171,743 PLHIV enrolled in the clinics over the five years, 10,326 (6.01%) were excluded leaving 161,417 available for the analysis. Of the 24,800 who received IPT, 1.00% developed TB disease whereas of the 136,617 who never received IPT 6,085 (4.98%) developed TB disease. In 278,545.90 person-years of follow up, a total 7,052 new TB cases were diagnosed. Using the weighted sample, the overall TB incidence was 11.57 (95% CI: 11.09–12.07) per 1,000 person-years. The TB incidence among PLHIV who received IPT was 10.49 (95% CI: 9.11–12.15) per 1,000 person-years and 12.00 (95% CI: 11.69–12.33) per 1,000 person-years in those who never received IPT. After adjusting for other covariates there was 52% lower risk of developing TB disease among those who received IPT compared to those who never received IPT: aHR = 0.48 (95% CI: 0.40–0.58, P<0.001).

Conclusion

IPT reduced TB incidence by 52% in PLHIV attending routine CTC in Tanzania. IPTW adjusted the groups for imbalances in the covariates associated with receiving IPT to achieve comparable groups of IPT and non-IPT. This study has added evidence on the effectiveness of IPT in routine clinical settings and on the use of IPTW to determine impact of interventions in observational studies.

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a common opportunistic infection among people living with HIV (PLHIV) [1, 2]. Despite strategies for control and prevention of TB among PLHIV, co-infection of TB and HIV (TBHIV) is still a public health concern [35]. Worldwide in 2018, 862,000 (2.3%) of all PLHIV had TB disease and 30% of all HIV deaths occurred in individuals with TBHIV co-infection [6, 7]. The African continent accounted for 24% of all TB cases diagnosed and was second to Asia in the number of TB cases. Tanzania was ranked among 30 countries in the World with high TB burden [7]. HIV is a known risk for TB especially in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The burden of TB among PLHIV in Tanzania was reported to 16.7 cases per 1000 person-years [8].

Tanzania adopted World Health Organization (WHO) three I’s strategy which comprises of intensified TB Case Finding (ICF), Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) and Infection control and prevention in all clinical settings since 2010 [9]. IPT entails giving an anti-TB drug to eligible PLHIV for at least 6 months to treat latent TB infection (LTBI); individuals infected with TB but without TB disease [10, 11]. IPT integration into HIV care and treatment services in Tanzania started in 2011 starting with high level health facilities as a phased implementation to lower level health facilities in 2012, so that 50% of care and treatment clinics (CTC) was implementing IPT by the end of December 2018 [12]. However, routine data from PLHIV attending CTC in 3 regions in Tanzania documented14% had initiated IPT from 2012–2016 [13] whereas the target was to cover a minimum of 50% of clinic attendees [14].

IPT is a proven public health intervention to reduce TB among PLHIV by treating LTBI, thus preventing LTBI from developing into TB disease. A systematic review and meta-analysis from clinical trials have demonstrated a reduction in TB incidence among PLHIV following IPT ranging from 30% to 74% [4, 1517].

Moreover, in routine clinical settings have shown a reduction in TB incidence of between 48% and 76% in PLHIV receiving IPT [1821]. These studies conducted in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Brazil but did not address the challenges of using observational studies to establish cause-effect relationship between IPT and TB incidence when IPT is rolled out in routine clinical settings, the baseline characteristics of those initiated on IPT may differ from those who are not initiated on IPT. Propensity scores are one way to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effectiveness of IPT in preventing TB incidence using observational data from routine clinical settings [22]. This paper reports a secondary analysis of a cohort of PLHIV enrolled in CTC from January 2012 to December 2016 in the three regions in Tanzania. We applied Inverse-Probability for Treatment Weighting (IPTW)-one of the propensity score approaches to the data in order to balance baseline characteristics of PLHIV who received and those who never received IPT [23]. This approach obtained an objective estimate of the impact of IPT intervention on TB incidence in using observational data from routine clinical settings where randomization of the intervention is not done.

Methods

Study design and study population

This analysis used routine data from PLHIV enrolled in 315 CTC in three regions of Tanzania from January 2012 to December 2016.

Study setting

More information regarding the HIV care and treatment program in Tanzania, including the integration of the TB services in HIV clinics, has been previously Published [24]. Tanzania has 26 regions and the three regions chosen were among those with the highest HIV prevalence [25]. Since 2012, all health facilities with CTC in Tanzania have implemented ICF and TB infection control and prevention, with IPT incrementally rolled out across Tanzania. During every clinic visit, PLHIV were screened for the presence of TB symptoms and signs as part of ICF. In health facilities where IPT was available, PLHIV who screened TB negative and fulfill other clinical criteria were initiated on IPT for 6 months to treat latent TB. Those who screened positive for TB underwent further TB disease diagnosis using diagnostic tests according the TB diagnosis algorithm [26]. TB infection control and prevention was another intervention to reduced TB among PLHIV and was implemented in all health facilities in the country.

Data collection

Detailed information regarding the demographic and clinical data collected in the Tanzania CTC has been described elsewhere [13, 24, 27]. At every visit to the CTC data were entered into an electronic database which was collated on a central server at national level. Independent variables used in the study namely sex, age, WHO clinical stage, Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) status, nutritional status, weight, height, enrolment year, health facility type and ownership and region where the client was registered were routinely recorded in the database. The database also recorded information on IPT initiation and completion dates and on TB screening and management. This study extracted those demographic and clinical information including those of TB services using the unique patient identification number for linking clinic visits. Any PLHIV who had any evidence of LTBI on the first visit to CTC were excluded from the analysis.

All PLHIV attending CTCs which never implemented IPT throughout the study period was also excluded from the analysis.

Data analysis

The primary exposure was IPT (IPT and non-IPT) use and TB disease incidence was the outcome of interest. “IPT” were individuals who were ever initiated on IPT and outcome of interest “non-IPT” were those who were never initiated on IPT throughout the study period. Sex, age, WHO clinical stage, ART status, Body Mass Index (BMI), functional status, health facility type, health facility ownership, enrolment year and region and were the covariates needed to be adjusted for in the analysis. Characteristics of PLHIV who received IPT and those who never received IPT during the study duration were expressed using unweighted sample. To balance for measured covariates between those who received IPT and those who never received IPT, IPTW was applied. The following steps were followed in creating weighted dataset: (1) Selection of covariates which are potential confounders (affecting both IPT initiation and TB disease diagnosis): Sex, age, functional status, ART status, Body Mass Index (BMI), nutritional status, health facility type, region and health facility ownership (12,19,28) were selected for propensity score model. (2) Creating Propensity scores (probability of receiving IPT condition to covariates): As these covariates differed between those who received IPT and those who never received IPT. Logistic regression was used to calculate propensity score to estimate the odds of receiving IPT. From the propensity scores, IPTW was created for each PLHIV to make a synthetic sample in which IPT and non-IPT groups were balanced.

The treatment effect to be calculated is Average Treatment Effect (ATE). ATE refers to the treatment effect to the entire target population (3) Checking for balance after weighting: The balance between the two groups was determined quantitatively by comparing standardized means and variances of the 2 groups. Weighted sample had standardized difference of closer to zero whereas the variance in the weighted group was closer to 1 compared to unweighted sample, showing covariate balance in the weighted sample [28, 29]. (4) Calculating Propensity Scores weights: From the propensity scores an IPTW was created for each PLHIV and this weight was used to make a synthetic sample in which IPT and non-IPT groups were Balanced. The weighted sample was then used to determine the TB incidence rates and risk factors for developing TB disease. The weighted dataset was used for the survival analysis using TB disease diagnosis as the failure variable. Entry time was the first date seen in the CTC (after 1st January 2012) and exit time out was TB diagnosis date, or the last clinic visit recorded. TB incidence rates and corresponding 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated by dividing the sum of all TB episodes occurring during follow up and total time contributed by each of the study participant. For individuals who received IPT the time before receipt of IPT was considered “not on IPT” and the time following initiation of IPT considered “on IPT”. Risk factors for developing TB disease among PLHIV were analyzed using regression model. The univariate Cox-regression model contained covariates either known to influence TB diagnosis from previous studies or from clinical experience of the authors. Multivariate regression included covariates with P-values less than 0.2 to obtain adjusted Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Multivariate analysis was done to control for possible residual confounding despite IPTW [30]. Cluster effect at the health facility level was checked in the regression model and were not significant. Kaplan Meier graphs for the effect of IPT on TB incidence were drawn to show comparison of TB disease probabilities between those who received IPT and those who did not receive IPT. Stata version 14 (College Station, TX: Stata Corp LP) was used for analysis.

Ethical consideration

To maintain participants’ confidentiality. the study used de-identified routinely collected HIV data. The data was fully de-identified before made accessible. Ethical review and approval was granted by Kilimanjaro Christian Medical College (KCMUCo) Institutional Review Board (IRB) which granted the ethical clearance certificate number 2287. The parent project known as SEARCH was given ethical approval by NIMR with approval number National Institute of Medical Research (NIMR)/HQ/R.8c/Vol.II/961. The submitted manuscript is part of Doctor of Philosophy work within the main project. As the study used de-identified secondary data from routine clinical visits, the need for informed consent from the study participants was waived by both KCMUCo IRB and NIMR ethical approval. Data used for the study can be available for public use in the research repository of London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. The data can be accessed using the following link: https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/sites/default/files/201706/Tanzania%20CTC%20Documentation.pdf.

Results

(1) Baseline characteristics of study participants

A total of 171,743 PLHIV enrolled in 315 health facilities in Dar es Salaam, Iringa and Njombe regions from January 2012-December 2016. A total of 10,326 (6.01%) study participants were excluded from the analysis as they either had TB disease before CTC enrolment or had TB diagnosed at CTC before follow up or they were from clinics which never implemented IPT throughout the study period. Of the 161,417 who were involved in the analysis, only 1.00% of PLHIV developed TB disease among those who received IPT and 4.98% among those who never received IPT (Fig 1).

Fig 1. Flow diagram for Isoniazid Preventive Therapy and TB diagnosis among PLHIV.

Fig 1

The figure showed only 15.36% of the PLHIV in the study were initiated on Isoniazid Preventive Therapy. When compared, less PLHIV who ever used IPT developed TB disease (1.00%) than those who did not use IPT (4.98%).

Majority of individuals who received IPT were females (71.60%), aged 25–49 years (77.19%), with working functional status (97.51%), in WHO clinical stage III (33.61%) not on ART (72.11%), in individuals with normal BMI (57.76%) and in PLHIV with normal nutritional status (93.81%). IPT initiation was also higher among those enrolled in 2014 (22.75%) Dar es Salaam region (74.72%, enrolled in hospital (49.27%) and enrolled in public health facilities (83.88%) (Table 1).

Table 1. Baseline characteristics of study participants, N = 161,417.

Variable IPT status
Never on IPT n = 136,617 Ever on IPT n = 24,800 Total P-value
Sex
Male 42,409 (31.04%) 7,044 (28.40%) 49,453 (30.63%) P<0.001
Female 94,208 (68.96%) 17,756 (71.60%) 111,964 (69.36%)
Baseline age Mean: 33.64 years, SD = 12.44 years, Range: 0–95 years
0–9 6,741(4.93%) 567 (2.29%) 7,308 (4.53%) P<0.001
10–19 6,458 (4.73%) 739 (2.98%) 7,197 (4.46%)
20–24 13,977 (10.23%) 1,808 (7.29%) 15.785 (9.78%)
25–49 96,848 (70.89%) 19,143 (77.19%) 115, 991 (71.86%)
+ 50 12,593 (9.22%) 2,543 (10.25%) 15,136 (9.38%)
Baseline functional status
Ambulatory 4,222 (3.10%) 475 (1.92%) 4,697 (2.92%) P<0.001
Bedridden 1,143 (0.84%) 139 (0.56%) 1,282 (0.80%)
Working 130,642 (96.06%) 24,069 (97.51%) 154,711 (96.28%)
Baseline WHO clinical stage
I 52,176 38.70% 8,175 (33.39%) 60,351 (37.89%) P<0.001
II 32,513 24.12% 6,684 (27.30%) 39,197 (24.61%)
III 40,051 29.71% 8,230 (33.61%) 48,281 (30.21%)
IV 10,073 7.47% 1,398 (5. 71%) 11,471 (7.20%)
Baseline ART status
No ART 85,297 (62.90%) 17,749 (72.11%) 103,046 (64.31%) P<0.001
ART 50,321 (37.10%) 6,865 (27.89%) 57,186 (35.69%)
Baseline BMI
Underweight 14,806 (17.13%) 2,584 (14.18%) 17,390 (16.61%) P<0.001
Normal 48,697 (56.33%) 10,524 (57.76%) 59,221 (6.57%)
Overweight 15,598 (18.04%) 3,465 (19.02%) 19,063 (18.21%)
Obesity 7,356 (8.51%) 1,648 (9.04%) 9,004 (8.60%)
Baseline nutritional status
Normal 120,051 (92.35%) 22,438 (93.81%) 142,489 (92.58%) P<0.001
Moderate 8,501 (6.54%) 1,335 (5.58%) 9,836 (6.39%)
Severe 1,445 (1.11%) 146 (0.61%) 1,591 (1.03%)
CTC enrolment year
2012 24,364 (17.83%) 4,378 (17.65%) 28,742 (17.81%) P<0.001
2013 26,603 (19.47%) 5,017 (20.23%) 31.620 (19.59%)
2014 28,491 (20.85%) 5,643 (22.75%) 34,134 (21.15%)
2015 26,215 (19,19%) 5,031 (20.29%) 31,246 (19.36%)
2016 30,944 (22.65%) 4,731 (19.08%) 35,675 (22.10%)
Region at enrolment
Dar es Salaam 96,524 (70.65%) 18,556 (74.82%) 115,080 (71.29%) P<0.001
Iringa 17,216 (12.60%) 1,238 (4.99%) 18.454 (11.43%)
Njombe 22,877 (16.75%) 5,006 (20.19%) 27,883 (17.27%)
Health Facility Type at enrolment
Dispensary 55,932 (40.94%) 6,232 (25.13%) 62,164 (38.51%) P<0.001
Health Center 36,619 (26.80%) 6,348 (25.60%) 42,967 (26.62%)
Hospital 44,066 (32.26%) 12,220 (49.27%) 56,286 (34.87%)
Health Facility ownership at enrolment
Public 96,211 (70.42%) 20,803 (83.88%) 117,014 (72.49%) P<0.001
Private 40,406 (29.58%) 3,997 (16.12%) 44.403 (27.51%)

95% CI = 95% Confidence Interval, ART = Antiretroviral Treatment, BMI-Body Mass Index, Care and Treatment Clinic, IPT = Isoniazid Preventive Therapy, TB = Tuberculosis, SD = Standard Deviation, WHO = World Health Organization.

(2) Balance of covariates after IPTW

After IPTW, the standardized differences for the weighted sample were closer to zero compared to the unweighted sample. The variances of the different covariates were closer to 1 compared to the variance in the unweighted sample.

(Table 2).

Table 2. Balance between unweighted and weighted samples after Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting.

Covariate Standardized Difference Variance
Unweighted sample Weighted sample Unweighted sample Weighted sample
Sex 0.03721 -0.01170 0. 9636 1.0162
Baseline age 0.1489 0.0108 0.7395 0.8963
Baseline functional status 0.8073 -0.0034 0.5981 1.0154
Baseline ART status -0.2385 -0.0019 0.8344 0.9989
Baseline BMI 0.0559 -0.0130 0.9685 0.9502
Baseline nutritional status -0.0736 0.0003 0.7400 0.9962
Health Facility type at enrolment 0.3583 0.0056 0.9118 0. 9695
Region at enrolment 0.0147 0.0123 1.2120 1.1355
Health Facility ownership at enrolment 0.2935 -0.0134 0.5677 1.0206

ART = Antiretroviral Therapy, BMI-Body Mass Index.

(3) TB cases, follow up time and TB incidence rate

During follow up, a total of 7,052 new TB cases were diagnosed with a total of 278,545.90 person years giving an overall TB incidence rate of 25.32 (95% CI: 21.43–30.31) per 1,000 person-years. Using the weighted sample, an overall TB incidence of 11.57 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 11.09–12.07) per 1,000 person-years was obtained. PLHIV who received IPT had lower TB incidence rate compared with those who never received IPT: 10.49 (95% CI: 9.11–12.15) per1,000 person-years versus 12.00 per 1,000 (95% CI: 11.69–12.33) per 1,000 person-years respectively. TB incidence rate was also lower higher among females; 9.27(95% CI: 8.76–9.82 per 1,000 person-years compared to males, in PLHIV aged 20–24 years: 6.10 (95% CI: 4.92–7.66) compared to other age groups, in PLHIV with working functional status; 11.27 (95% CI: 10.78–11.78) per 1,000 person-years than in other functional statuses and in those who were on ART: 8.38 (95% CI: 7.45–9.47) per 1,000 person-years compared with those not on ART. TB incidence was also decreased in those with WHO clinical stage I; 6.05 (95% CI:5.34–6.82) per 1,000 person-years compared to higher WHO clinical stages in those who were obese: 4.71 (95% CI: 3.59–6.32) per 1,000 person-years compared to those with other weights, in those with normal nutritional status: 10.83 (95% CI: 10.32–11.37) per 1,000 person-years compared to other groups. TB incidence rate was also decreased in PLHIV enrolled in dispensaries: 10.35 (95% CI: 9.44–11.37) per 1,000 person-years compared to those in other health facility levels, in PLHIV enrolled in care in 2012: 9.20 (95% CI: 8.42–10.06) per 1,000 person-years compared to those in the following years, in those enrolled in Njombe region: 6.45 (95% CI: 5.77–7.25) per 1,000 person-years compared to those registered in other regions and in those enrolled in private health facilities: 10.37 (5% CI:9.24–11.67–10.29) per 1,000 person-years compared to those enrolled in public health facilities (Table 3).

Table 3. The incidence of TB cases, total person-year and TB rates among 24,800 PLHIV who received IPT and a weighted sample of those who did not receive IPT.

Variable Number of TB cases Total person-years (Years) Rate/1,000 (95% CI)
Overall 1,037 89,661 11.57 (11.09–12.07)
IPT status
Never on IPT 765 63,739 12.00 (11.69–12.33)
Ever on IPT 272 25,922 10.49 (9.11–12.15)
Sex
Male 450 26,335 17.10 (16.05–18.23)
Female 587 63,327 9.27 (8.76–9.82)
Baseline age
0–19 105 7,442 14.17 (11.68–17.37)
20–24 45 7,427 6.10 (4.92–7.66)
25–49 764 66,226 11.54 (11.03–12.07)
+50 122 8,566 14.27 (12.69–16.11)
Baseline functional status
Ambulatory 54 2,545 21.06 (18.25–24.35)
Bedridden 9 606 14.68 (9.72–23.05)
Working 975 86,511 11.27 (10.78–11.78)
ART status
No on ART 824 64,279 12.82 (12.28–13.40)
ART initiated 209 24,937 8.38 (7.45–9.47)
Baseline WHO clinical stage
Stage I 194 32,060 6.05 (5.34–6.82)
Stage II 232 24,647 6.40 (8.58–10.39)
Stage III 485 26,317 18.43 (17.54–19.39)
Stage IV 119 5,678 21.91 (17.99–24.43)
Baseline Body Mass Index
Underweight 208 9,349 20.25 (20.81–23.81)
Normal 398 33,280 11.95 (11.29–12.36)
Overweight 75 10,888 6.84 (5.94–7.92)
Obesity 25 5,221 4.71 (3.59–6.32)
Baseline nutritional status
Normal 859 79,304 10.83(10.32–11.37)
Moderate 116 5,270 21.95 (19.99–24.14)
Severe 23 784 29.59 (22.58–39.03)
Health Facility type at enrolment
Dispensary 338 32,666 10.35 (9.44–11.37)
Health center 253 23,661 10.70 (9.95–11.02)
Hospital 446 33,334 13.38 (12.66–14.14)
CTC enrolment year
2012 227 24,631 9.20 (8.42–10.06)
2013 230 23,720 9.69 (8.89–10.60)
2014 216 20,767 10.42 (9.55–11.40)
2015 188 13,014 14.45 (13.04–16.06)
2016 176 7,530 23.38 (21.01–26.10)
Region at enrolment
Dar es Salaam 850 62,545 13.60 (13.00–14.23)
Iringa 78 10,323 7.58 (6.08–9.57)
Njombe 108 16,793 6.45 (5.77–7.25)
Health Facility ownership at enrolment
Private 274 26,420 10.37 (9.24–11.67)
Public 763 63,241 12.07 (11.75–12.79)

95% CI = 95% Confidence Interval, ART = Antiretroviral Treatment, CTC = Care and Treatment Clinic, IPT = Isoniazid Preventive Therapy, TB = Tuberculosis, WHO = World Health Organization.

Kaplan-Meier graph comparing TB disease between those who received IPT and those who did not use IPT was fitted. With increasing time of follow up cumulative incidence of TB disease increased in both groups. However, the incidence was higher among those who did not receive IPT compared with those who received the intervention (Fig 2).

Fig 2. Kaplan Meier graph showing cumulative Tuberculosis incidence depending on the status of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy.

Fig 2

Throughout the follow up, those who ever received IPT had less cumulative Tuberculosis incidence than those who did not receive the intervention.

(4) Risk factors for TB disease

In multivariate analysis of unweighted sample, the risk of developing TB disease was less by 13% among those who ever received IPT: adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) = 0.87 (95% CI:0.76–1.01; P>0.05) compared to those who never used IPT. Using weighted sample, after adjusting for other covariates the risk of TB incidence was reduced by 52% in the IPT group compared to non-IPT; aHR = 0.48 (95% CI: 0.40–0.58; P<0.001). In the weighted sample, the risk of developing TB disease was also lower among females: aHR = 0.55 (95% CI: 0.50–0.61), P<0.001, in those who were obese: aHR = 0.36 (0.26–0.48), P<0.05, in those on ART: aHR = 0.61 (95% CI:0.53–0.70), P<0.001, and in those enrolled in Njombe region: aHR = 0.28 (95% CI:0.23–0.33), P<0.001. The risk of TB disease was increased in individual with WHO clinical stage IV; aHR = 3.44 (95% CI: 2.84–4.17), P<0.001 (Table 4).

Table 4. Risk factors for TB disease using weighted sample.

Variable Univariate Multivariate
cHR, 95% CI P-Value aHR, 95% CI P-Value
IPT status
Never on IPT 1 P>0.05 1 P<0.001
Ever on IPT 0.87 (0.76–1.01) 0.48 (0.40–0.58)
Sex
Male 1 P<0.001 1 P<0.001
Female 0.54 (0.50–0.53) 0.55 (0.50–0.61)
Baseline age
0–19 1 P>0.05
20–24 0.43 (0.32–0.58)
25–49 0.81 (0.67–0.99)
+50 1.00 (0.80–1.27
Baseline BMI
Underweight 1 P<0.001 1 P<0.001
Normal 0.54 (0.49–0.59) 0.71 (0.64–0.79)
Overweight 0.31 (0.26–0.36) 0.46 (0.38–0.54)
Obesity 0.21 (0.16–0.28) 0.36 (0.26–0.48)
Baseline functional status
Ambulatory 1 P>0.05
Bedridden 0.70 (0.45–1.08)
Working 0.54 (0.46–0.63)
Baseline ART status
ART not initiated 1 P<0.001 1 P<0.001
ART initiated 0.65 (0.58–0.74) 0.61 (0.53–0.70)
Baseline WHO clinical stage
Stage one 1 P<0.001 1 P<0.001
Stage two 1.55 (1.33–1.81) 1.51 (1.28–1.78)
Stage three 3.04 (2.68–3.46) 3.03 (2.64–3.48)
Stage four 3.45 (2.85–4.18) 3.44 (2.84–4.17)
Nutritional status
Normal 1 1
Moderate 2.03 (1.82–2.26) P<0.001 1.19 (1.05–1.35) P>0.05
Severe 2.73 (2.05–3.65) 1.22 (0.87–1.72)
Health Facility type
Dispensary 1 P>0.05
Health center 0.98 (0.86–1.11)
Hospital 1.14 (1.00–1.28)
CTC enrolment Year
2012 1
2013 1.05 (0.93–1.19) P>0.05
2014 1.13 (1.00–1.29)
2015 1.57 (1.37–1.80)
2016 2.54 (2.21–2.93)
Region
Dar es Salaam 1 1 P<0.001
Iringa 0.56 (0.44–0.70) P<0.001 0.33 (0.25–0.42)
Njombe 0.47 (0.42–0.54) 0.28 (0.23–0.33)
Health facility ownership
Private 1 1 P>0.05
Public 1.16 (1.03–1.32) P<0.001 0.89 (0.75–1.11)

95% CI = 95% Confidence Interval, aHR = Adjusted Hazard Ratio, ART = Antiretroviral Treatment, BMI-Body Mass Index, Care and Treatment Clinic, cHR = Crude Hazard Ratio, CTC = Care and Treatment Clinic, IPT = Isoniazid Preventive Therapy, TB = Tuberculosis, WHO = World Health Organization.

Discussion

We set out to determine impact of IPT on TB incidence among PLHIV as well show case the application of IPTW to minimize selection bias in observational studies in order to establish causal relationship between IPT and TB incidence among PLHIV in routine clinical settings.

These results show that in the implementation of IPT the risk of developing TB Disease was reduced by a half (52%) in those who received IPT in the studied cohort when compared to those who never received IPT after applying IPTW and adjusting for confounding from other factors. The results also show lower TB disease incidence among those who received IPT in comparison with those who never received IPT. Both lower rates of TB among those who ever used IPT and reduced TB risk among IPT users consolidates evidence of effectiveness of IPT on TB incidence among PLHIV. Lower TB incidence among IPT users has also been documented in other studies where PLHIV who ever used IPT had lower rates of TB incidence than those who never used IPT [4, 18, 3134], however, unlike many of these studies in real life, the current study applied IPTW to minimize bias associated with non-experimental study designs. Protective effect of IPT on TB incidence among PLHIV in non-research, routine HIV care settings have also been determined in other studies when those who used IPT were compared with those who did not use in routine settings in Tanzania [20], Ethiopia [4, 18, 3436] and a systematic review [16], and it ranged from 48% to 94%. The various studies showed that the protective effect of IPT is stretched over a long range. These studies were conducted in different routine settings with varying degrees of data quality together with different approaches in controlling for possible biases during data analysis level. Hence, the range of IPT effectiveness in these studies could be due to different study settings and different statistical manipulations done to make those who received IPT and those who did not receive comparable groups.

Overall this population had a relatively lower TB incidence reduction compared to other similar studies in Sub-Saharan Africa including the study in Tanzania [20]. The discrepancy between our study and other studies could also be due to lack of application of statistical techniques like propensity scores to minimize selection bias associated with observational studies [23, 29]. Lack of use of such techniques to minimize selection bias in establishing causal inference in observation studies may result in erroneous estimation of the outcome of interest [37].

The results from the analysis of the weighted data also showed that the risk of TB disease was also lower among females, those on ART, obese individuals and those enrolled in Njombe region. The risk of TB disease was higher in PLHIV with baseline WHO clinical stage IV. Other studies have also shown a low TB risk among females in comparison with Males [38, 39]. Difference in health seeking behavior between males and females [38] and the role of biological difference between the two sexes playing a role in immune responses in resisting Mycobacterium Tuberculosis have been attributed to the differences [39]. ART use is a known public health tool in reducing the risk of developing TB disease among PLHIV [2, 40, 41]. ART restores immune responses to Mycobacterium Tuberculosis through lowering of HIV viral load and hence, prevents HIV-associated TB [41]. Lower TB disease risk among individuals with higher BMI (overweight and obese) in comparison with normal nutritional status has also been reported by others [42, 43]. Overweight or obese people may have increased intake of protein and energy containing food as well as micronutrients which may be protective of TB diseases [43]. However, a thorough mechanism of the association between nutritional status and TB disease may be needed. Different TB risk according to regions could be attributed to health system components which were beyond the scope of this study. Regional variations in TB disease in Tanzania has also been reported by others [44]. The risk of TB disease in individuals with advanced WHO clinical stages (stage 3 and 4) is also reported in other studies [45, 46]. Advanced HIV affects both cellular and hormonal immune responses required to control TB, thus increasing TB disease susceptibility in individuals with advanced HIV disease [47].

ICF and IPT in Tanzania were scaled up from 2011. The observed increased TB notification with increasing years from 2012 could be due to scaling up of these interventions which result into increased TB case notification [48]. TB diagnosis especially by using Florescent Light Emitting Diode (LED) microscopy and Gene-Xpert has been improved over time. Use of these diagnostic tests which perform better than conventional light microscopy lead to increased TB case notification [49, 50]. Moreover, the fact that advancement in TB diagnosis happened as years go, this may explain the increased TB notification from 2012 to 2016. Differences in TB burden among regions in Tanzania was also documented by others [51]. Different TB burden among regions together with differences in TB diagnosis among regions in the country may explain different TB incidence found in this study. Lower TB notification in private health facilities reported in the current research is similar to those reported by others [52]. This may be due to less engagement of private health facilities in TB disease management [53].

This study has an implication on practice and policy in preventing TB. The findings of this study have added information on how IPT works in reducing TB diseases among PLHIV in routine real-world settings. Such findings encourage policy makers to continue safeguarding policies on TB preventive strategy. The findings also encourage health care providers to continue scaling up IPT such that it is accessed by all eligible PLHIV in the country.

The strength of this analysis is that the data are taken from routine visits by PLHIV attending CTC and hence the results represent the effect of IPT under routine settings. The data came from three regions representing a cross section of Tanzania where the prevalence was high [25]. The analysis used IPTW to adjust for the characteristics of study participants [23].

The main limitation of the study as a result of its being a retrospective design, is its inability to include other variables which could be included as possible confounders for IPT initiation. These are such as availability of Isoniazid tablets in the health facilities which may affect IPT initiation. Another limitation of the study is its inability to complete quantitative data with qualitative data to understand context of IPT delivery. Moreover, the study may result into overestimating TB among non-IPT recipients because much TB may have been diagnosed more at the beginning of follow up.

Conclusion

The study found that IPT reduced TB disease in routine HIV care and treatment settings in Tanzania to the same extent as other studies in routine settings. This study has also shown the possibility of applying IPTW to determine causality in observational studies.

Supporting information

S1 Dataset

(ZIP)

Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge active participation of health care providers and clinic clients in the participating health facilities for their involvement in the study. The authors would also like to thank staff from National AIDS Control Program Tanzania for their support throughout the study.

Abbreviations

ART

Antiretroviral Treatment

ARV

Antiretroviral Therapy

ATE

Average Treatment Effect

BMI

Body Mass Index

CI

Confidence Interval

CTC

Care and Treatment Clinic

HR

Hazard Ratio

ICF

Intensified TB Case Finding

IPT

Isoniazid Preventive Therapy

IPTW

Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting

NIMR

National Institute of Medical Research

PLHIV

People Living with HIV

TB

Tuberculosis

WHO

World Health Organization

Data Availability

All relevant data are within the paper and its S1 Dataset.

Funding Statement

The study was funded through SEARCH (Sustainable Evaluation through Analysis of Routinely Collected HIV data) Project under Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation grant number OPP1084472 entitled “Using routinely collected public facility data for program improvement in Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia.”. Routine HIV data management is Tanzania is managed collaboratively by the Government of the Republic of Tanzania and the Government of the United States of America through President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

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Decision Letter 0

Katalin Andrea Wilkinson

20 Jan 2021

PONE-D-20-37236

Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV; a secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of patients attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania.

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Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: In this manuscript, the authors make use of a national dataset to explore the effects of IPT on incident TB among people living with HIV in Tanzania. To address confounding in such an observational dataset, they use an inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance certain confounders between treated and untreated groups. The large size of the dataset and the appropriately chosen method for causal inference are promising, but there are several weaknesses of the analysis as currently presented:

1. The 4 variables adjusted for are not sufficient to balance the IPT and non-IPT groups. IPTW requires balancing all confounders that independently influence both IPT initiation and TB risk. In this dataset, there are a number of other measured but unadjusted confounders that appear to have been associated with IPT initiation (Table 1) and that are also likely to influence TB diagnosis outside of the IPT causal pathway. These include, for example, ART status, BMI and/or nutritional status, and type of health facility. The IPTW analysis is not valid unless all confounders are both measured and included in the weighting, and the authors cannot just assert that “after weighting, the two exposure groups were comparable.”

The authors also note in the introduction that IPT tended to be introduced sooner at larger facilities, and larger facilities may also be associated with differences in care that influence either risk of developing TB or probability of being diagnosed with TB (e.g. because of different TB diagnostics available), making this another potential confounder.

2. The authors need to do more to describe the motivation and context for their study. While Plos One does not select papers for publication based on “impact”, it is still important to accurately describe the existing literature and what the current analysis adds. The authors start from the assertion that “IPT reduces TB incidence” (abstract), and they cite a number of observational studies demonstrating effectiveness of IPT in reducing TB incidence in routine care settings including Tanzania. They say that the current study will help to inform scale-up, but it is not clear what aspects of scale-up this study informs. Is there clinically important uncertainty in the size of effect based on prior literature? Is there something different about this setting that might lead to a different effect? Are there particular covariates of interest that this analysis is intended to explore?

Similarly, it seems contradictory in the introduction to state that “a number of studies … in routine public health settings… have also shown benefits of IPT on TB incidence ”,but then assert in the next paragraph that “effectiveness [of IPT] in these settings has not been adequately and properly evaluated.” More exploration is needed of what the gaps in current data are and how this study addresses them.

3. I note in Figure 2 that a lot of the divergence between the IPT and no-IPT groups occurs within the first two months of follow up. This makes me think that much of the difference is not an effect of the IPT, but rather a difference in the suspicion of existing TB: Clinicians may have been disinclined to start IPT when they suspected that a patient already had active TB, even if an initial diagnostic test was negative or they were still waiting for a diagnostic result. Or, it could be that patients who were going to start IPT got a more thorough evaluation to rule out active TB at baseline, making those with early, undiagnosed TB disease less likely to be included in the IPT group than in the no-IPT group. More information about TB screening and diagnostic practices during the study period might help to clarify this, and it is also a limitation that needs to be explored in the discussion.

Minor:

Introduction:

- It’s potentially misleading to cite the % of PLHIV who have TB infection at time of death. Would be more useful to cite the % of PLHIV who have TB disease at time of death.

Methods:

- Please state how incidence rates (and their confidence intervals) were calculated.

- How was the multivariable model (Table 3) developed? Why this set of covariates?

Results:

- Too many significant digits are included, making results both overly precise and difficult to read.

- Person-years do not make sense as reported. Should these be thousands of person years?

- What is the difference between “ambulatory” and “walking” functional status? To me, these seem synonymous.

- Sentences containing lists are difficult to follow due to inconsistent grammar and punctuation.

- Several numerical results seem to be incorrectly typed. For example, incidences by ART status differ between text and table, some confidence intervals are concerningly asymmetric, some column percentages in tables do not add to 100%, and some reported p values seem incorrect based on the point estimates and Cis presented.

- TB incidence seems to increase over time from 2012 to 2016. What there a change in diagnostic practice during this period (e.g. introduction of Xpert or change in screening practices), and if so, how is that likely to affect your results? Should calendar year or clinic-level diagnostic availability be adjusted for?

Discussion:

- I suggest presenting results in the context of follow-up period. IPT reduced TB incidence by xx% over what median duration of follow up? Effects are likely to wane with time, as reinfection increasingly predominates over reactivation as the source of incident TB.

- The main limitation cited is the “inability to include other [confounding] variables”, but they in fact have data on many more potentially-confounding variables that they do have the ability to include if they choose.

- Much more exploration of the study’s limitations is needed.

Author contributions:

- All authors should review and approve the final manuscript.

Reviewer #2: Thank you very much for allowing me to review this interesting manuscript.

The manuscript adds to the existing evidence on the effectiveness of IPT in reducing TB incidence based on analysis of a large number of participants in Tanzania. The papers showed durable protection against TB for 6 years. The manuscript is generally well written but lacks some details. Please consider suggestions below to improve clarity.

1. The definition of the IPT group and the control group is not clear to me. The authors conducted the survival analysis by defining entry time as the data of enrolment. Were participants classified into either IPT group or the control group depending on whether they started IPT at the time of enrolment? I presume that most of PLHIV started at IPT the time enrolment but some might have initiated it later (e.g. after investigation for TB). How did you account for those who started IPT later? For example, if they started IPT one month later, were they then transferred into the IPT group? If they remained in the control group, then the control group is not “those who never received IPT”.

2. What is the definition of TB disease? Only bacteriologically confirmed? Does this include TB diagnosed regardless of the timing after the follow-up? (e.g. TB diagnosed within one week after the enrolment.)

3. Figure 2 shows a sharp increase in TB very early in the follow-up. If I understand correctly, participants who screened positive didn’t start immediately upon enrolment and were included in the control group. Among those who screened positive, prevalent TB may have been found after investigation and inflated the number of TB cases in the control group in the initial period.

4. The authors claim that baseline characteristics were balanced after IPTW. However, I seem to find some imbalances, for example:

ART 29.02% vs 36.09%

Private facility 17% vs 29%

Underweight 15% vs 18%

Is this the reason why the authors conducted multivariable cox-regression after IPTW?

I wonder if the authors conducted balance diagnostics. Presenting results may be helpful. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4626409/

I would also suggest presenting the distribution of the weights.

Minor points

Introduction

Suggest mentioning the coverage of IPT among PLHIV not only the proportion of CTC providing TPT.

Also, suggest to briefly summarize the durability of efficacy reported in high TB burden countries and discuss how the present research adds to the evidence.

Method:

Is TST recommended at all?

If I remember correctly, the TB guidelines in Tanzania recommend repeating IPT after 2 years. Is there any chance that some of the participants repeated IPT?

Data collection

How did you assess nutritional status? What is the definition of each category?

How is ambulatory different from walking?

Do you have information on the previous history of TB?

Analysis

Please justly the use of p-values less than 0.05 as a criterion to select covariates included in the final model. This may miss important variables associated with exposure and outcome. Have you considered a higher threshold? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8256780/

How did you handle missing data?

How were the weights given? Was it simple inverse or did you use stabilized weights?

Result

Paragraph 2

“from private health facilities (84.36%).” This is not consistent with Table 1. 84.36% is from public facilities.

Paragraph 3

Suggest reporting the median duration of follow-up in the two groups. The person-years reported don’t seem to correct. Only 134.56 person-year? Is this for all participants or 2309 TB patients? Either way, the number is too small, corresponding to a very short period of follow-up. Person-years in Table 2 are also too small.

Did you find any difference in the number of people who were lost to follow-up or died between the two groups? How could that impact the analysis?

Discussion

Paragraphs 2 and 3 seem repetitive.

The discussion could also mention the durability of protection.

Table 1.

Proportions of the weighted sample enrolled by year in the IPT group do not sum up to 100%.

Reviewer #3: There is no statement on the ethical consideration that explains how to keep the confidentiality of the participants.try to include a statement. It also needs some grammatical error corrections. both on the introduction and discussion.

Reviewer #4: ‘Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV; a secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of patients attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania.

This manuscript is intended to describe the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) to determine the effectiveness of IPT in preventing active TB among PLHIV attending health facilities in Tanzania. The manuscript is good addition to scientific literature as it demonstrates the benefit of using IPW and its results. Previous studies on impact of TB prevention and TB Incidence in Tanzania has been done but the uniqueness of this paper is that it has included children, more regions in addition to Dar es Salaam and use of IPW to determine TB incidence among those on TB Prevention. The author needs to define and clearly state the objective of this study.

The abstract section is well written and reflecting on the manuscript. However, the author has indicated 171,672 as the study participants but this is not reflected in the results section which indicates 166,709 can this be clarified. The background section seems to be missing the objective and the statement on routine settings should be clear they should consider routine care setting. The conclusion should be aligned to the study objectives.

In the background section, in the 2nd paragraph the author has indicated Tanzania adopting WHO 3 I's in 2011 , can this be expounded was it in the form of guidelines or policy directive from the ministry ? and further expound on the scale up was it phased from higher level to lower level .The author has indicated > 50% scale up in the CTCs can this indicated in patient numbers as well .The policy on IPT uptake is it once in a lifetime or repeated after a certain duration of time in Tanzania .The fourth paragraph should read limited information on effectiveness of IPT on TB incidence as there has a study published on this (Sabasaba et al. BMC Infectious Diseases)

The manuscript would have benefitted from a clearer ,detailed and a logical methodology section for the readers to understand .The authors should consider to elaborate on the study design , clearly describe the study setting or a brief on the 3 regions .A brief explanation on the TB/HIV service delivery in particular IPT services in the health facilities in this 3 regions , the TB screening process , diagnosis , treatment and follow up .The authors needs to be clear on the study population .In the data analysis section the author needs to clearly indicate how the 4 variables ( Age,sex, region WHO staging ) was achieved at, justify why IPW .A clear explanation on the propensity scores used and how this was achieved .There should be a step wise approach with clear formulae and outcomes .

In the result section, the authors need to have a clearly structured sub section of the results. There needs to be clarification on the actual number of study participants analyzed (171,743 or 171,672 or 166,709?) and let it be uniform throughout the document. Table 1 is not uniform and a brief explanation on the age stratification from 0-9 then 10 – 19 then 20 – 24 then 25- 29. There needs to a clear write up of the highlight summary findings of the 3 tables in the result section and revision of the 3 tables as they appear overcrowded .

In the discussion section, in the first paragraph the aspect of using IPTW to determine effectiveness of public health intervention has been previously used refer to the NIH study (Sheri A. Lippman et al .NIH ) it’s more of use of TB prevention and in this country setting that is limited .The author seems to have duplicate information on ‘IPT lowering TB incidence by 70% ‘ in the 2nd and 4th paragraph can this be revised .From the commencement of TB prevention in the HIV facilities from 2011 has the national TB program seen some changes like reduction in the TB/HIV co-infection rate ? . Can the author expound on the association of higher TB incidence in the variables: Male; not on ART ; aging population ; Nutrition status ; higher numbers in 2016 and in the Dar es salaam region and the public health facilities of TB incidence .Basically the authors need to further expound on the findings of the current study in line with the results they got.

Finally, perhaps the authors can strengthen the conclusion in line with the objective of the study perhaps inclusion on use of IPW in evaluating effectiveness of a public health intervention.

**********

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Reviewer #1: No

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Reviewer #3: No

Reviewer #4: Yes: Dr. Muthoni E. Karanja

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PLoS One. 2021 Jul 13;16(7):e0254082. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254082.r003

Author response to Decision Letter 0


8 Apr 2021

PONE-D-20-37236

Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV; a secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of patients attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania.

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Response: Thank you very much for the comment. PLOS ONE style has been adopted in the revised manuscript (Lines 1-326).

2. Please include additional information regarding the data extraction tool used in the study and ensure that you have provided sufficient details that others could replicate the analyses. For instance, if you developed a data extraction tool as part of this study and it is not under a copyright more restrictive than CC-BY, please include a copy, in both the original language and English, as Supporting Information, or include a citation if it has been published previously.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The study used secondary data collected as part of HIV care and treatment services in the country. Details on how data extraction has been explained in details under methods section (Lines 90-103). The variables to be extracted was guided by planned dummy tables for the manuscript.

3. Thank you for stating the following in the Competing Interests section:

"The study was funded through SEARCH Project under Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Routine HIV data management is Tanzania is managed collaboratively by the Government of the Republic of Tanzania and the Government of the United States of America through President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief."

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Response: Thanks for the comment. As stated earlier, the permission for data sharing needs to be requested from the Principal Secretary-Health. Upon request, the data set will be made available. The statement regarding data availability has been included in the ethical consideration section (162-164).

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Response: Thank you very much for the comment. Ethics statement has been moved into the Methods section (Lines: 152-164).

[Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.]

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

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Reviewer #1: Partly

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

Reviewer #4: Yes

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Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

Reviewer #4: Yes

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Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: No

Reviewer #3: Yes

Reviewer #4: No

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Reviewer #2: Yes

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Reviewer #4: Yes

5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: In this manuscript, the authors make use of a national dataset to explore the effects of IPT on incident TB among people living with HIV in Tanzania. To address confounding in such an observational dataset, they use an inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance certain confounders between treated and untreated groups. The large size of the dataset and the appropriately chosen method for causal inference are promising, but there are several weaknesses of the analysis as currently presented:

1. The 4 variables adjusted for are not sufficient to balance the IPT and non-IPT groups. IPTW requires balancing all confounders that independently influence both IPT initiation and TB risk. In this dataset, there are a number of other measured but unadjusted confounders that appear to have been associated with IPT initiation (Table 1) and that are also likely to influence TB diagnosis outside of the IPT causal pathway. These include, for example, ART status, BMI and/or nutritional status, and type of health facility. The IPTW analysis is not valid unless all confounders are both measured and included in the weighting, and the authors cannot just assert that “after weighting, the two exposure groups were comparable.”

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The aim of IPTW is to balance covariates which are more likely to affect treatment selection (in this case is IPT) as well the outcome of interest (in this case is TB incidence). The propensity score model now contains all covariates that are potential confounders; they affect the outcome of interest as well as determine whether a client will be given IPT or not. After weighting the balance of covariates between weighted and original sample was shown quantitatively by using standard differences and variances. (Line 114-134)

The authors also note in the introduction that IPT tended to be introduced sooner at larger facilities, and larger facilities may also be associated with differences in care that influence either risk of developing TB or probability of being diagnosed with TB (e.g. because of different TB diagnostics available), making this another potential confounder.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The potential confounding effect due to health facility type was checked. This was checked by including “Type of Health Facility” as one of the covariates. Furthermore, the effect of Type of Health Facility” on TB disease was also checked by carrying out multilevel analysis to check for cluster effect of health facility types. There was no cluster effect detected (Line 147-148).

2. The authors need to do more to describe the motivation and context for their study. While Plos One does not select papers for publication based on “impact”, it is still important to accurately describe the existing literature and what the current analysis adds. The authors start from the assertion that “IPT reduces TB incidence” (abstract), and they cite a number of observational studies demonstrating effectiveness of IPT in reducing TB incidence in routine care settings including Tanzania. They say that the current study will help to inform scale-up, but it is not clear what aspects of scale-up this study informs. Is there clinically important uncertainty in the size of effect based on prior literature? Is there something different about this setting that might lead to a different effect? Are there particular covariates of interest that this analysis is intended to explore?

Response: Thanks for the comment. Sabasaba et al conducted a study to determine effect of IPT in one region in Tanzania. The current study has widened the scope by including three regions. Moreover, the current study unlike most studies before, used IPTW to determine causality between an interventions (IPT) and an outcome or impact of interest (TB incidence). Hence, the study intended to show effectiveness of IPT in routine clinical settings as well as advocate the use of statistical methods to infer causality in observational studies. The motivation and the context of the study has been added in the abstract (Lines 11-12) as well as in the background (Line: 57-69).

Similarly, it seems contradictory in the introduction to state that “a number of studies … in routine public health settings… have also shown benefits of IPT on TB incidence”, but then assert in the next paragraph that “effectiveness [of IPT] in these settings has not been adequately and properly evaluated.” More exploration is needed of what the gaps in current data are and how this study addresses them.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The gap was mainly referring to Tanzanian context. Effectiveness of IPT in routine settings has not been extensively conducted. As pointed earlier, Sabasaba et al determined effect of IPT on TB incidence in one region in Tanzania. In other countries like Ethiopia, Brazil and Zimbabwe where IPT implementation has been evaluated, the analysis method was not rigorous as the analysis did not consider the bias introduced by self-selection which is common in observational studies as well as indication bias (confounding by indication) introduced by clinician’s decision as to who to treat and who not to. Hence, the study intended to produce local evidence for Tanzania by involving more regions as well as to show case the use of propensity scores to minimize biases in observational studies for causal inference (Line: 57-69).

3. I note in Figure 2 that a lot of the divergence between the IPT and no-IPT groups occurs within the first two months of follow up. This makes me think that much of the difference is not an effect of the IPT, but rather a difference in the suspicion of existing TB: Clinicians may have been disinclined to start IPT when they suspected that a patient already had active TB, even if an initial diagnostic test was negative or they were still waiting for a diagnostic result. Or, it could be that patients who were going to start IPT got a more thorough evaluation to rule out active TB at baseline, making those with early, undiagnosed TB disease less likely to be included in the IPT group than in the no-IPT group. More information about TB screening and diagnostic practices during the study period might help to clarify this, and it is also a limitation that needs to be explored in the discussion.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. We agree with you the possibilities of overestimating TB for PLHIV not on IPT during the first days of follow up. This will be included as one of the study limitations (Line: 293-295).

Minor:

Introduction:

- It’s potentially misleading to cite the % of PLHIV who have TB infection at time of death. Would be more useful to cite the % of PLHIV who have TB disease at time of death.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The correction has been done (Line 43-46).

Methods:

- Please state how incidence rates (and their confidence intervals) were calculated.

- How was the multivariable model (Table 3) developed? Why this set of covariates?

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. How incidence rates were calculated and multivariable model was developed has been included in the method section of the manuscript (lines 137-139).

Results:

- Too many significant digits are included, making results both overly precise and difficult to read.

- Person-years do not make sense as reported. Should these be thousands of person years?

- What is the difference between “ambulatory” and “walking” functional status? To me, these seem synonymous.

- Sentences containing lists are difficult to follow due to inconsistent grammar and punctuation.

- Several numerical results seem to be incorrectly typed. For example, incidences by ART status differ between text and table, some confidence intervals are concerning asymmetric, some column percentages in tables do not add to 100%, and some reported p values seem incorrect based on the point estimates and Cis presented.

- TB incidence seems to increase over time from 2012 to 2016. What there a change in diagnostic practice during this period (e.g. introduction of Xpert or change in screening practices), and if so, how is that likely to affect your results? Should calendar year or clinic-level diagnostic availability be adjusted for?

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. Relevant corrections raised have been done. Both calendar year and clinic level were included in the multivariate analysis. Moreover, clinic level associated cluster effect was also checked and had no effect on TB incidence (Lines 145-148).

Discussion:

- I suggest presenting results in the context of follow-up period. IPT reduced TB incidence by xx% over what median duration of follow up? Effects are likely to wane with time, as reinfection increasingly predominates over reactivation as the source of incident TB.

- The main limitation cited is the “inability to include other [confounding] variables”, but they in fact have data on many more potentially-confounding variables that they do have the ability to include if they choose.

- Much more exploration of the study’s limitations is needed.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The result section has been reviewed; presentation of results has been changed (Lines 165-222) and study limitations have been reviewed and written as suggested. The limitation was referring to covariates which potentially would be helpful if collected. These were such as health system issues e.g. availability of Isoniazid which is used for IPT (Line 289-295).

Author contributions:

- All authors should review and approve the final manuscript.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. Contribution of authors has been reviewed (Lines: 316-320).

Reviewer #2: Thank you very much for allowing me to review this interesting manuscript.

The manuscript adds to the existing evidence on the effectiveness of IPT in reducing TB incidence based on analysis of a large number of participants in Tanzania. The papers showed durable protection against TB for 6 years. The manuscript is generally well written but lacks some details. Please consider suggestions below to improve clarity.

1.The definition of the IPT group and the control group is not clear to me. The authors conducted the survival analysis by defining entry time as the data of enrolment. Were participants classified into either IPT group or the control group depending on whether they started IPT at the time of enrolment? I presume that most of PLHIV started at IPT the time enrolment but some might have initiated it later (e.g. after investigation for TB). How did you account for those who started IPT later? For example, if they started IPT one month later, were they then transferred into the IPT group? If they remained in the control group, then the control group is not “those who never received IPT”.

Response: Thank you very much for requesting clarification. The study involved People living with HIV (PLHIV) enrolled from January 2012 to December 2016. The IPT group were those who ever received IPT and the control group constituted those who never received IPT during any time of study duration. For individuals who received IPT the time before receipt of IPT was considered “not on IPT” and the time following initiation of IPT considered “on IPT” (Lines: 105-107) and (Lines: 139-141).

2. What is the definition of TB disease? Only bacteriologically confirmed? Does this include TB diagnosed regardless of the timing after the follow-up? (e.g. TB diagnosed within one week after the enrolment.)

Response: Thank you very much for asking. TB disease diagnosis was either bacteriological or radiological or symptomatic as decided by the clinician. Only PLHIV who were diagnosed with TB before being enrolled into HIV clinics were excluded from follow up.

3. Figure 2 shows a sharp increase in TB very early in the follow-up. If I understand correctly, participants who screened positive didn’t start immediately upon enrolment and were included in the control group. Among those who screened positive, prevalent TB may have been found after investigation and inflated the number of TB cases in the control group in the initial period.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. We agree with you TB at the start of follow up may overestimate TB disease among non-IPT group. This has been admitted as a limitation (Lines: 293-295).

4. The authors claim that baseline characteristics were balanced after IPTW. However, I seem to find some imbalances, for example:

ART 29.02% vs 36.09%

Private facility 17% vs 29%

Underweight 15% vs 18%

Is this the reason why the authors conducted multivariable cox-regression after IPTW?

I wonder if the authors conducted balance diagnostics. Presenting results may be helpful. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4626409/

I would also suggest presenting the distribution of the weights.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. Balance between the 2 groups (Intervention and control groups) has been quantitatively tested after weighting by using standardized difference and variance between unweighted and weighted samples (Line 125-129).

Minor points

Introduction

Suggest mentioning the coverage of IPT among PLHIV not only the proportion of CTC providing TPT.

Also, suggest to briefly summarize the durability of efficacy reported in high TB burden countries and discuss how the present research adds to the evidence.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. IPT coverage in Tanzania has also been incorporated (Line 55-56). Efficacy and effectiveness of IPT in other countries have been included (Lines: 57-65).

Method:

Is TST recommended at all?

Response: Thank you very much for requesting clarification. TST is not mandatory for IPT in Tanzania

If I remember correctly, the TB guidelines in Tanzania recommend repeating IPT after 2 years. Is there any chance that some of the participants repeated IPT?

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. Yes, before April 2018 IPT was repeated in every 2 years. However, this analysis did not consider repeated IPT. Individuals were in IPT group if ever received IPT and non-IPT for those who never received IPT (Lines: 105-107).

Data collection

How did you assess nutritional status? What is the definition of each category?

How is ambulatory different from walking?

Do you have information on the previous history of TB?

Response: Thanks for the comment. Nutrition was obtained by calculating Body Mass Index (BMI) from weights and heights of clients.). The definitions were according to World Health Organization as follows: Underweight (<18.5kg/m2) Normal (18.5kg/m2), overweight (25 kg/m2) and obese (>30 kg/m2).

The study participants were newly enrolled PLHIV from January 2012 to December 2016. Those with TB before enrolment in HIV clinics were excluded from the cohort. Prior TB apart from TB with which a client reported to HIV clinic was not known.

The right categories are bedridden, ambulatory and working. The right correction has been done.

Analysis

Please justly the use of p-values less than 0.05 as a criterion to select covariates included in the final model. This may miss important variables associated with exposure and outcome. Have you considered a higher threshold? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8256780/

Response:

How did you handle missing data?

Response: Thanks for the comment. The threshold for including a covariate into a multivariate model was lifted to P-value of a maximum of 0.2 (Lines 144-145) to include more covariates as suggested in the article given for reference. The distribution of missing was checked. Missing data had no effect on the outcome of interest; they were at random. If they were systematic we would apply manipulations such as imputation. Hence, the data analysis was done using the whole dataset.

How were the weights given? Was it simple inverse or did you use stabilized weights?

Response: Thanks for the comment. The weights were given using simple inverse (Line 129-134).

Result

Paragraph 2

“from private health facilities (84.36%).” This is not consistent with Table 1. 84.36% is from public facilities.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. This has been rectified.

Paragraph 3

Suggest reporting the median duration of follow-up in the two groups. The person-years reported don’t seem to correct. Only 134.56 person-year? Is this for all participants or 2309 TB patients? Either way, the number is too small, corresponding to a very short period of follow-up. Person-years in Table 2 are also too small.

Did you find any difference in the number of people who were lost to follow-up or died between the two groups? How could that impact the analysis?

Response: Thank you very much for the response. The follow up duration in each of the group has been shown in the result section. Lost to follow up was not considered in this analysis.

Discussion

Paragraphs 2 and 3 seem repetitive. The discussion could also mention the durability of protection.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. This has been corrected. In the discussion section.

Table 1.

Proportions of the weighted sample enrolled by year in the IPT group do not sum up to 100%.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. This has been corrected

Reviewer #3: There is no statement on the ethical consideration that explains how to keep the confidentiality of the participants. Try to include a statement. It also needs some grammatical error corrections. both on the introduction and discussion.

Response: Thank you very much for the comments. Ethical consideration kept participants’ confidentiality by using only unique identification instead of their names. Ethical clearance has been reviewed to reflect the comment (Line 152-164).

Reviewer #4: ‘Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV; a secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of patients attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania.

This manuscript is intended to describe the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) to determine the effectiveness of IPT in preventing active TB among PLHIV attending health facilities in Tanzania. The manuscript is good addition to scientific literature as it demonstrates the benefit of using IPW and its results. Previous studies on impact of TB prevention and TB Incidence in Tanzania has been done but the uniqueness of this paper is that it has included children, more regions in addition to Dar es Salaam and use of IPW to determine TB incidence among those on TB Prevention. The author needs to define and clearly state the objective of this study.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The objective of the manuscript has been revised Back (Lines 14-15, 71-74).

The abstract section is well written and reflecting on the manuscript. However, the author has indicated 171,672 as the study participants but this is not reflected in the results section which indicates 166,709 can this be clarified. The background section seems to be missing the objective and the statement on routine settings should be clear they should consider routine care setting. The conclusion should be aligned to the study objectives.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. Abstract, background, result, discussion and conclusion sections are aligned.

In the background section, in the 2nd paragraph the author has indicated Tanzania adopting WHO 3 I's in 2011 , can this be expounded was it in the form of guidelines or policy directive from the ministry ? and further expound on the scale up was it phased from higher level to lower level .The author has indicated > 50% scale up in the CTCs can this indicated in patient numbers as well .The policy on IPT uptake is it once in a lifetime or repeated after a certain duration of time in Tanzania .The fourth paragraph should read limited information on effectiveness of IPT on TB incidence as there has a study published on this (Sabasaba et al. BMC Infectious Diseases)

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. We have worked on the above (Lines 37-74). Tanzania started implementing 3Is in 2011. IPT uptake was repeated in every 2 years before April 2018. After April 2018, IPT was given only once.

The manuscript would have benefitted from a clearer, detailed and a logical methodology section for the readers to understand. The authors should consider to elaborate on the study design, clearly describe the study setting or a brief on the 3 regions.

.An explanation on the TB/HIV service delivery in particular IPT services in the health facilities in this 3 regions including TB screening process , diagnosis , treatment and follow up has also been included in the manuscript .The authors needs to be clear on the study population .In the data analysis section the author needs to clearly indicate how the 4 variables ( Age,sex, region WHO staging ) was achieved at, justify why IPW .A clear explanation on the propensity scores used and how this was achieved .There should be a step wise approach with clear formulae and outcomes .

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. A brief explanation on the TB/HIV service delivery in particular IPT services in the health facilities in this 3 regions, the TB screening process, diagnosis, treatment and follow up has been included in the manuscript (Lines: 78-89). The study population has been clearly stated (Lines: 105-107). How the propensity score model was constructed has been explained (Lines: 114-134). Justification for using IPTW has been given (Lines 69-74). Steps involved in the IPTW have been included in the manuscript (Lines:114-134). Formulae and outcomes used are shown below:

1. Notations for logistic regression for selection of covariates:

Logit(IPT)=a+b(Sex)+b(Age)+b(Functionalstatus)+b(ART)+b(BMI)+b(Nutrition)+b(HealthFacilitytype)+b(Region)+b(Health Facility ownership)+e

Logit(TB disease)= a+b(Sex)+b(Age)+b(Functional status)+b(ART)+b(BMI)+b(Nutrition)+b(Health Facility type)+b(Region)+b(Health Facility ownership)+e

Where a=Outcome at baseline, b=co-efficient of covariates, e=error term

2. Notations for propensity scores:

ATE=Expected ((IPT)-(Non-IPT))

Propensity Score (Probability of receiving IPT given a certain covariate), PS=Prob(IPT/Covariate)

3. Notations for model balance:

D=Prop(IPT)-Prop(Non-IPT)/√(PropIPT(1-PropIPT)+PropNon-IPT(1-Non-IPT))/2

4. Notations for propensity score weights:

PS weights=1/PS + 1(1-PS)

Where, 1/PS=Weight for IPT group, 1/(1-PS) =Weight for Non-IPT group

In the result section, the authors need to have a clearly structured sub section of the results. There needs to be clarification on the actual number of study participants analyzed (171,743 or 171,672 or 166,709?) and let it be uniform throughout the document. Table 1 is not uniform and a brief explanation on the age stratification from 0-9 then 10 – 19 then 20 – 24 then 25- 29. There needs to a clear write up of the highlight summary findings of the 3 tables in the result section and revision of the 3 tables as they appear overcrowded.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The result section has been revised to accommodate the suggested comments

In the discussion section, in the first paragraph the aspect of using IPTW to determine effectiveness of public health intervention has been previously used refer to the NIH study (Sheri A. Lippman et al .NIH ) it’s more of use of TB prevention and in this country setting that is limited .The author seems to have duplicate information on ‘IPT lowering TB incidence by 70% ‘ in the 2nd and 4th paragraph can this be revised .From the commencement of TB prevention in the HIV facilities from 2011 has the national TB program seen some changes like reduction in the TB/HIV co-infection rate ? . Can the author expound on the association of higher TB incidence in the variables: Male; not on ART; aging population; Nutrition status; higher numbers in 2016 and in the Dar es salaam region and the public health facilities of TB incidence. Basically the authors need to further expound on the findings of the current study in line with the results they got.

Thank you very much for the comment. Relevant corrections have been done in the discussion section.

Finally, perhaps the authors can strengthen the conclusion in line with the objective of the study perhaps inclusion on use of IPW in evaluating effectiveness of a public health intervention.

Thank you very much for the comment. The conclusion section has been revised (Lines: 296-299).

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Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: No

Reviewer #3: No

Reviewer #4: Yes: Dr. Muthoni E. Karanja

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Comments on the Plos One paper:

The paper attempted to study a very important question, well done for the initiative. Please find my following comments regarding the article below.

Response: Thank you very for the comment.

Abstract

Background: there is no statement that explains the magnitude of the problem (statement of the problem).

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The magnitude of TB among people living with HIV has been included (Line 43-46)

Methods:

study setting and design not included on the methods section of the abstract, when are you going to say the IPT has no effect, reduces the effect or increases the effect, the decision criteria is not set on this section. Or the cutoff point is not placed here. Try to include it. In the methods of the abstract, some of the sections of the method of the abstract does not make sense it needs revision.

In the result of the abstract, one change that should be made revolves around the Results sections on the "incidence" is that incidence or prevalence??

Response: Thank you very much for the comment: The conclusion of effectiveness of IPT on reducing TB disease among PLHIV has been drawn in comparison with studies from other settings. There is no cutoff point. Relevant changes have been made in the abstract section to include study setting and design.

Data collection: the data collection technique is not included on the data collection section try to include it there.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. Data collection technique is included (Lines 90-103).

Methods section:

Please clearly elaborate the following procedures: inclusion and exclusion criteria, sampling, methods for data capture and quality control. Any attempt to reduce internal and external biases, which confounders were considered? There is missing of eligibility criteria, Data collection, Handling and Tracking of Missing data, and Quality control.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. The study included PLHIV enrolled in HIV clinics from January 2012 to December 2016 in 3 regions in Tanzania. The study excluded from analysis, PLHIV who had existing TB disease (on treatment) before HIV clinic enrolment (Lines 100-103).

The regions were conveniently sampled as they had high HIV and TB incidence. As data used for analysis were those of routine practices, there are mechanisms to make sure that routine data are of quality at routine program level. These include training of staff and ongoing capacity building through mentorship, supportive supervision and data quality assessment. Different measures have been taken to minimize biases. These include propensity score weighting and multivariate analysis. Missing data were examined and were not found to have significant effect and thus analysis was done for the whole sample.

Ethical consideration

There is no statement on the ethical consideration that explains how to keep the confidentiality of the participants. Try to include a statement.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. A statement on study participant confidentiality has been added in the ethical consideration section (Line 153-164).

Discussion

You should include a paragraph in the discussion about the significance of your results and how this will inform preventative strategies in the future.

Response: Thank you very much for the comment. A sentence on the implication of study findings on the practice/policy on TBHIV prevention has been included (Line 278-283).

Attachment

Submitted filename: Responses)_Werner.pdf

Decision Letter 1

Katalin Andrea Wilkinson

26 Apr 2021

PONE-D-20-37236R1

Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV; a secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of individuals attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania.

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Maokola,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

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Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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Reviewers' comments:

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Comments to the Author

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Reviewer #2: (No Response)

Reviewer #4: (No Response)

**********

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Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #4: Yes

**********

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Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #4: Yes

**********

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Reviewer #2: No

Reviewer #4: Yes

**********

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Reviewer #2: Thank you very much for revising the manuscript.

I only have a few minor comments below.

Line 100: “TB infection” usually refers to LTBI in the context of TB prevention and thus confusing.

Line 106: What do you mean by “at least one cycle”. Do you mean completion of 6-month? Isn’t all who started IPT included?

Lines 121-123 and Lines 130-132.

Reviewer #4: I appreciate the opportunity to review this manuscript which describes the use of Inverse Probability for Treatment Weighting (IPTW) to determine the relationship between IPT and TB incidence among PLHIV attending care. This will be a great addition especially in minimizing bias in non-experimental studies. The authors have addressed a number of corrections and suggestions which is very commendable. A few considerations to be looked into by the authors are as summarized below:

Abstract

The authors need to consider revising the background section its more of a statement rather a recommendation. The objectives are not smart as well. Line 33-34 is not necessary can the authors consider revision of that sentence.

Discussion

The authors should consider revising line 239 -244 a bit of repetition. They have explained some of the results as written in line 257 – 270 however, they need to further expound on the TB incidence rate why it is lower in private health facilities as depicted in the results section as well as the reason it is lowest in 2012 and increasing throughout the study.

Minor

The authors need to work on the grammatical errors and omissions throughout the whole document.

**********

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Reviewer #2: No

Reviewer #4: No

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PLoS One. 2021 Jul 13;16(7):e0254082. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254082.r005

Author response to Decision Letter 1


14 Jun 2021

Response to reviewers addressing all the comments has been attached in this submission as suggested and labelled "Response to reviewers"

Attachment

Submitted filename: Rebuttal Letter_Response to Reviewers.pdf

Decision Letter 2

Katalin Andrea Wilkinson

21 Jun 2021

Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV; a secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of individuals attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania.

PONE-D-20-37236R2

Dear Dr. Maokola,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

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Kind regards,

Katalin Andrea Wilkinson, PhD

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments:

Acceptance letter

Katalin Andrea Wilkinson

28 Jun 2021

PONE-D-20-37236R2

Impact of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on Tuberculosis incidence among people living with HIV; a secondary data analysis using Inverse Probability Weighting of individuals attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Tanzania.

Dear Dr. Maokola:

I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now with our production department.

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on behalf of

Associate Professor Katalin Andrea Wilkinson

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Associated Data

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    Submitted filename: Responses to the editor.docx

    Attachment

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    Attachment

    Submitted filename: plos one comments.docx

    Attachment

    Submitted filename: Responses)_Werner.pdf

    Attachment

    Submitted filename: Rebuttal Letter_Response to Reviewers.pdf

    Data Availability Statement

    All relevant data are within the paper and its S1 Dataset.


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