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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Jul 30.
Published in final edited form as: Subst Use Misuse. 2021 Jul 2;56(10):1527–1535. doi: 10.1080/10826084.2021.1942053

A Spatial Analysis of Alcohol Outlet Density Type, Abandoned Properties, and Police Calls on Aggravated Assault Rates in a Northeastern U.S. City

David T Lardier a,b, Ijeoma Opara c,d, Yan Lin e, Emily Roach a,f, Andriana Herrera g, Pauline Garcia-Reid h, Robert J Reid h
PMCID: PMC8324007  NIHMSID: NIHMS1723137  PMID: 34210249

Abstract

Background:

Community-based research and prevention scholarship has shown a growing interest in examining the impact of the ecological structure of neighborhoods on community violence. Ecological structures such as higher numbers of alcohol outlets and abandoned/vacant properties in geographically dense, poor, and socially isolated communities are critically important to consider. Further, disadvantaged urban communities are burdened by greater police presence with limited or no abatement in crime or violence.

Purpose:

Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping, spatial analysis techniques, and a negative binomial regression analyses, this study investigated the relationships between alcohol outlet density consisting of license C (i.e., combined on and off premises establishments) and license D (i.e., off premises establishments such as liquor stores), abandoned properties, and police calls to service on aggravated assault rates in a Northeastern United States urban city.

Results:

Negative binomial regression analysis results showed that license C alcohol outlet density count (IRR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.08, 2.11), license D alcohol outlet density count (IRR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.30), abandoned property count (IRR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.01, 2.01), and police call to service counts (IRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.50) were positively associated with aggravated assault rates. Analyses controlled for census data characteristics.

Conclusions:

The link between alcohol outlet density and violent crime has been established in public health research. However, this study represents an important contribution in recognizing the unique relationships between license C and license D alcohol outlet density, abandoned properties, and police calls to service with aggravated assaults in an urban neighborhood. Conclusions are drawn for policy and practice.

Keywords: Alcohol outlet density, abandoned or vacant properties, policy call to service, violent crime, GIS mapping

Community prevention research has shown a growing interest in examining the impact of the ecological structure of neighborhoods on community violence. Traditionally, crime, community violence, and substance abuse research have focused on individual characteristics or sociodemographic variables (e.g. population density, poverty, racial inequality; Kondo et al., 2018). While these may be important contributors in our understanding of crime, violence, and substance use, these factors are not the sole determinants; instead, ecological structures such as higher numbers of alcohol outlets and abandoned/vacant properties in geographically dense, low-income, and socially isolated communities are critically important to consider.

Alcohol outlet density is defined as “the number of physical locations in which alcoholic beverages are available for purchase either per area or per population” (Gmel et al., 2016, p. 556). Economically disadvantaged and heavily populated urban communities throughout the United States have greater density of alcohol outlets (Jennings et al., 2014), when compared to less populated suburban communities (Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Jennings et al., 2014; Reid et al., 2003). Geospatial studies have found significant associations with higher alcohol outlet density and increased rates of gun violence (Jennings et al., 2014; Trangenstein et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2015), physical assaults (Gmel et al., 2016), homicides (Trangenstein et al., 2020), domestic violence (Kajeepeta et al., 2020), vehicle crashes (Lipton et al., 2018) and greater police presence (Ransome et al., 2019; Stevenson et al., 1999). Yet, while there are emerging studies indicating that off premises outlets (e.g. liquor stores also known as license D stores) have a stronger association with violent outcomes (Trangenstein et al., 2018), much of the extant literature remains inconclusive on whether combined on and off premises outlets or license C stores (e.g. including liquor stores, bars and restaurants that sell alcohol) or just off premises outlets (i.e. license D such as liquor stores) have a stronger association with violent outcomes (Trangenstein et al., 2020).

Current evidence cannot determine causality, however research specifies that neighborhood resources in areas where there are high alcohol outlets, are often depleted, which influences the rise of environmental stressors such as unemployment, concentrated poverty, and neighborhood disorganization. Such stressors are symptoms of community disadvantage that indirectly prioritizes the presence of structures such as alcohol outlets, which leads to high access of alcohol, instead of investing in communities (Opara et al., 2020). Alcohol outlet density within a small bounded geographic area has also been related to discounted prices for alcohol, which may likely attract patrons to engage in binge drinking within the community (Ibitoye et al., 2019). Heavy alcohol use can lead to engaging in risky behaviors such as violent assault and crime, due to lowered inhibitions associated with alcohol misuse, increased irritability, and impacted judgment (Ibitoye et al., 2019; Ransome et al., 2019; Trangenstein et al., 2020). For example, Jennings et al. (2014) identified that the addition of liquor stores in a geographic area significantly increased the probability of violent crime, overtime. However, studies have shown that reducing alcohol outlet density in residential areas have been associated in a reduction of violent crimes within that neighborhood (Trangenstein et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2015).

In addition to high alcohol outlet density, economically disadvantaged communities often have a greater abundance of abandoned or unoccupied homes, as well (Boessen & Hipp, 2015; Speer et al., 2003). Urban cities with a high number of abandoned/vacant properties can contribute to lower property values of other homes in the community, which is correlated with drug dealing, violence, homelessness, and other socio-ecological concerns (Boessen & Hipp, 2015). Recent studies have indicated that abandoned/vacant properties offer locations for illegal activity and symbolize community deterioration (Branas et al., 2012; Kondo et al., 2018; Lardier et al., 2019). Some other investigations have connected vacant or abandoned properties with reductions in community well-being (Boessen & Hipp, 2015) and provoking criminal activity including drug dealing and gun violence (Jones & Pridemore, 2016). In a recent geospatial study, Lardier et al. (2019) showed not only the relationship between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, but also the association abandoned/vacant properties had with increasing violent crime rates in a mid-sized, impoverished, highly dense urban community in New Jersey. In a separate study, the demolition of vacant properties in Detroit, Michigan, was correlated with a reduction on total crime, violent crime, and property crime (Larson et al., 2019). When taken together, such reductions can invariably have a positive influence on overall community health and wellness. Therefore, identifying the structural and built environmental circumstances of a community or city is an effective strategy to limiting community violence (Kondo et al., 2018).

Given the evidence associating alcohol outlet density and abandoned properties with crime, such communities are often burdened by greater police presence with limited or no abatement in crime or violence. Specifically, areas of high alcohol outlet density and abandoned or vacant properties tend to be designated as “hot-spots” and often experience high police calls to service and a disproportionately higher number of patrolling police officers (MacDonald, 2015; Shaw & McKay, 1969; Speer et al., 2003). While it is often believed and intended that concentrated police presence is a deterrent to criminal behaviors, few studies have found a strong correlation between concentrated police presence, drug related arrests, and violence-associated arrests (Lipton et al., 2018). Due to the perceived reliability of police to manage symptoms of disadvantaged communities, police presence tends to be high in such areas. This can be concerning, because in areas where it is a common occurrence to have high amounts of service calls, police may not be trained and unable to resolve the underlying issues that are present in such communities (Reisig, 2010). Repeated police calls and presence may lead to heightened anxiety and paranoia among community members (Aymer, 2016). While it is expected that police officers engage with community members to build trust and work toward identifying underlying issues within a community to deescalate the problem, police may not be neutral because of their authority to make decisions that result in involving the criminal justice system. Moreover, underlying issues for crime and violence such as poverty, racism, unemployment, violent crime, drug use, and other disturbances, will continue without specific community-wide social interventions (Desmond & Valdez, 2013).

The association between alcohol outlet density and community violence is well supported (Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Gmel et al., 2016; Jennings et al., 2014; Lardier et al., 2019; Reid et al., 2003; Trangenstein et al., 2018). However, additional research is needed that examines the association between violent crime and type of alcohol outlet license (e.g. on premises or combined on and off premises license), the influence of abandoned properties on violent crime, and the associated effect of police calls to service on violent crime, which has implications in how we provide recommendations and create crime prevention initiatives in these communities. Secondly, in this study, police presence is being conceptualized by including number of police calls to service in the model to understand the amount of police presence in urban, impoverished communities due to reports of violent crimes and high alcohol outlet density.

Purpose of study

This study investigated the relationships between license C (i.e. combined on and off premises sale of alcohol) and license D (i.e. off premises only) alcohol outlet density, abandoned properties, and police calls to service on aggravated assault occurrences. Alcohol outlet density, abandoned properties, and police calls to service counts were related to counts of aggravated assaults using Geographic Information System (GIS) ‘spatial join’ function in ESRI ArcGIS 10.6. Negative binomial regression analyses were also conducted to assess the association between aggravated assault occurrences and the four explanatory factors: alcohol license C outlet density (i.e. combined on and off premises), alcohol license D outlet density (i.e. off premises), abandoned properties, and police officer call to service.

Our two primary aims were to: (i) examine the positive association between license C and D alcohol outlet density and aggravated assault occurrences; and (ii) examine the positive association between abandoned properties and aggravated assaults. Secondary to these aims, we were also interested in examining the positive association police calls to service had when controlling for license C and D alcohol outlet density. This secondary aim was important to further understand the rate of police encounters in this dense urban community, when examined with other ecological characteristics such as alcohol outlet density and abandoned properties on aggravated assault. These analyses will help further recognize the presence of police in under-resourced, densely populated urban communities due to reports of violent crimes.

Community context

The study took place in a northeastern urban community which is the third largest city in its state (8.4 square miles) with a 2010 population of just over 146,000 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020). Demographically, the city is 60.7% Hispanic or Latina/o, 27.8% Black/African American, and 30% Non-Hispanic White, with 37% of the city’s population foreign born (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020). Nearly one-third (26.6%) of the population is below 18 years of age and 29% of the city’s population living in poverty (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020). Only 10.6% of the population, 25 years of age and older, holds a bachelor’s degree or higher. Social problems are entrenched within this community as it has one of the highest rates of HIV/AIDS, STIs, and substance use in the state (New Jersey Department of Human Services, 2014), particularly among the youth population between 13 and 18?years of age. As of 2017, when data were collected, there were 197 alcohol selling establishments (three times the state’s legal amount) and 6196 crimes committed, with 1554 violent crimes (State of New Jersey, 2019). The violent crime rate is 10 times higher than the nearest suburban community (State of New Jersey, 2019).

Methods

To investigate the association between aggravated assault occurrences in 2017 and alcohol outlet density or count distribution of alcohol selling facilities, abandoned properties, and police officer calls to service, we collected cross-sectional data at the individual level from publicly available sources and geocoded the data and further aggregated into 107 census block groups. Based on previous literature examining alcohol outlet density, abandoned properties, and police officer call to service (e.g., Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Lardier et al., 2019; Reid et al., 2003; Trangenstein et al., 2018, 2020), four demographics were selected at census block group level from 2010 census data: (1) Percent African American residents, (2) Percent Hispanic residents; (3) Median household income; and (4) census block population. Figure 1 summarizes the cross-sectional data tabularly and spatially at the census block group level.

Figure 1.

Figure 1.

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Counts of alcohol license C and license D outlet density, abandoned/vacant properties, and police calls to service on aggravated assaults. Note. Callforservice = Police call for service; ABDProperty = Abandoned property; AODLicenseC = Alcohol outlet density license C; AODLicenseD = Alcohol outlet density license D.

Aggravated assault (n = 3661) occurrences data in 2017 were obtained from the city’s Police Department. Using individual-level reported addresses, a total of 2901 aggravated assault occurrences were successfully geocoded and then aggregated at the census block group level to generate a count of both occurrences for each census block group, using GIS spatial join in ESRI ArcGIS 10.6. Addresses that were not geocoded were due to deficiency in addresses (e.g. missing address, incomplete address, or errors in address). While additional forms of violence have been examined in prior studies, the city’s Police Department did not have available other forms of violent crime, presenting a limitation.

Alcohol outlet density or count distribution of alcohol selling facilities were derived from the alcohol selling establishments (n = 187) collected from Alcohol Beverage Control (ABC) Board including license C and D. Individual-level alcohol selling establishments addresses were geocoded (n = 161), including 48 establishments with license C (i.e. combined on premises sale of alcohol such as bars) and 113 establishments with license D (i.e. off premises only such as liquor stores). These data were aggregated at the census block group level using spatial join in ESRI ArcGIS 10.6 to generate two count variables of alcohol selling establishments as a proxy of the alcohol outlet density.

Abandoned properties data were collected from the city’s Housing Authority (n = 768). Addresses of abandoned properties were geocoded (n = 763) and aggregated at the census block group level using spatial join in ESRI ArcGIS 10.6. A count of abandoned properties of each census block group was generated in GIS.

Police officer call to service data in 2017 were collected from the city’s Police Department (n = 100,376). Addresses of police call to service were geocoded and aggregated to get a count of police officer call to service of each census block group in GIS. A total of 72,864 addresses were successfully geocoded; other addresses were not geocoded due to deficiency in addresses mentioned above. About 30% missing data from geocoding were due to addresses being out of town, missing, incomplete, or invalid. This limitation is discussed after the presentation of results and discussion.

To investigate the association between aggravated assault occurrences in 2017 and the four explanatory factors (e.g. license C and license D alcohol outlet density, abandoned properties, and police officer call to service), negative binomial regression analyses were conducted in STATA (StataCorp, 2020). Since the dependent variable, occurrences of aggravated assault in 2017, is a count variable and zero-inflated, our preliminary data analyses suggested a negative binomial specification produces good modeling results. We examined the spatial autocorrelation with Moran’s I in aggravated assault occurrences (Waller & Gotway, 2004). Incident risk ratios (IRRs) were used to convey the strength of association, allowing the association between license C and license D alcohol outlet density count, abandoned property count, and police call to service count on aggravated assaults to be expressed as a percentage. Sociodemographic factors including percent Hispanic, percent Black, and median household income were included as covariates. The log offset for census block population was used in analyses to allow for the outcome variable to be interpreted as aggravated assault rates.

Results

Table 1 presents statistical results for the association between license C (i.e. off premises) and license D (i.e. combined on and off premises) alcohol outlet density, abandoned properties, and police officer call to service on assaultive violence rates, adjusted for percent Hispanic population, percent Black population, and median household on aggravated assault rates. As noted previously, the log offset for census block population was used in analyses to allow for the outcome variable to be interpreted as aggravated assault rates.

Table 1.

Negative binomial regression analysis between alcohol license C and license D outlet density, abandoned properties, and police call to service on aggravated assault ratesa.

Aggravated assaults
IRR
 95% CI
LL UL
Constant .45 .20 .98
Pet Hispanic .73 .45 1.19
Pct Black 1.19 1.09 3.02
Median household income .90 .89 .99
Alcohol outlet density count: License Cb 1.36 1.08 2.11
Alcohol outlet density count: License Dc 1.13 1.01 1.30
Abandoned property count 1.28 1.01 2.01
Police call to service count 1.10 1.02 1.50
Population Census 2010, log offset a 1.00
Moran’s I Moran’s I = : 0.05, p = 0.21
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Note. IRR = Incidence risk ratio; PCT = Percent; CI = Confidence interval; LL = Lower limit; UL = Upper limit.

a

Log offset for census block population was used in analyses to allow for the outcome variable to be interpreted as aggravated assault rates.

b

Both off and on premises alcohol outlets (e.g. bars or restaurants).

c

Strictly off premises alcohol outlets only (e.g. liquor stores).

Negative binomial regression analysis results indicated that percent Black was positively associated aggravated assault rates (IRR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.09, 3.02) and median household income was negatively associated with aggravated assault rates (IRR = .90, 95% CI = .89, .99). Percent Hispanic population was not associated with aggravated assault rates. In addition, license C alcohol outlet density count (IRR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.08, 2.11), license D alcohol outlet density count (IRR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.30), abandoned property count (IRR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.01, 2.01), and police call to service counts (IRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.50) were positively associated with aggravated assault rates. We found no statistically significant spatial autocorrelation (residuals Moran’s I = .05, p = .21).

Figure 1 presents the spatial distribution of census block group-level counts of aggravated assaults in 2017, as well as the percentage of license C and license D alcohol outlet density counts, abandon property counts, and police calls to service of the total counts of each variable of the area (bar chart). As shown in Figure 1, the pattern of aggravated assaults corresponds well with the pattern of the four factors shown in the bar chart, especially for census block groups with higher number of aggravated assaults (dark census block groups).

Discussion

The link between alcohol outlet density and violent crime has been established in public health research (Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Gruenewald et al., 2006; Jennings et al., 2014; Lardier et al., 2019; Reid et al., 2003; Trangenstein et al., 2020). The assertion among these studies is the idea that high access to alcohol through high alcohol outlet density contributes to community disadvantage and increases the probability of violence in communities (Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Gmel et al., 2016). There are studies that also document when alcohol outlets are removed, overall crime in these communities reduces over time (Trangenstein et al., 2020), which provides some support on community ecology, built-environment-violence link—i.e. removing the sole onus of responsibility from the individual. Less understood is the effect combined on and off premises licensed outlets (license C) and off premises licensed outlets (license D) have on aggravated assault rates (Trangenstein et al., 2018, 2020), and when controlling for alcohol outlet density the association abandon property density and police calls to service have on aggravated assault rates (Lardier et al., 2019).

This study, using spatial analyses techniques, investigated the relationship between both combined on and off premises alcohol outlet density (license C; liquor stores) and off premises alcohol outlet density (license D; liquor stores, bars, and restaurants that sell alcohol), abandoned properties, and police officer calls to service on aggravated assault occurrences in 2017. This study provides evidence in support of aim one that greater levels of spatial access to license C and license D alcohol outlets in this city are significantly associated with aggravated assaults, even after controlling for census characteristics. In this city, each unit increase in license C alcohol outlet density was associated with a 36% increase in aggravated assault rates. Though a smaller percent increase, every unit increase in license D alcohol outlet density was associated with an 13% increase in aggravated assault rates. These outcomes are consistent with previous research on cities with populations > 20,000 residents in the United States (Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Lardier et al., 2019; Trangenstein et al., 2018). Furthermore, our findings contribute to the still largely understudied literature on whether combined on and off premises (license C) or off premises licensed outlets (license D) have a stronger association with violent crime (Trangenstein et al., 2020). In this study, we identified that license C alcohol outlet density (i.e. combined on and off premises alcohol outlets) had a stronger association with violent crime than off-premises or license D alcohol establishments or liquor stores, which is consistent with the extant research (Trangenstein et al., 2018)

Moreover, in line with aim two, we found that when controlling for census characteristics and both license C and license D alcohol outlet density, abandoned property count had a statistically significant association with aggravated assault rates. As the extant research indicates on densely populated urban communities, greater density of abandoned properties is associated with more crime in the community (Branas et al., 2012; Kondo et al., 2018; Lardier et al., 2019). In this city, for every unit increase in abandoned property density was associated with an 28% increase in aggravated assault rates. As an important extension to the literature, abandoned property counts had a slightly more robust effect on assaultive violence, when compared to, and when controlling for license C and license D alcohol outlet density, suggesting that there is a complex combination of ecological factors contributing to community violence, or specifically, aggravated assaults.

As a secondary aim of the study, we were interested in examining the associated relationship between police calls to service and aggravated assaults when controlling for both license C and license D alcohol outlet density, as well as abandoned properties. Results indicated that for every unit increase in police calls to service, there was a 10% increase in aggravated assault rates. While police officers are tasked with responding to violent crime calls in the community, this finding is particularly noteworthy because as displayed in Figure 1, these calls to service overlapped with higher alcohol outlet density and abandoned property counts. When considered alongside the existing research on policing in urban communities, findings highlight that these “hot-spots” areas with greater alcohol outlet density and abandoned or vacant properties, experience high police calls to service (MacDonald, 2015; Shaw & McKay, 1969; Speer et al., 2003). It is important to underscore that while it is not uncommon to have high amounts of police service calls in areas with increased violence, police may be untrained or unable to resolve the underlying issues present in impoverished communities (Reisig, 2010). Therefore, policing alone may be an inadequate response to community concerns (Murphy et al., 2018; Terrill & Reisig, 2003; Vitale, 2017). Without community-wide social interventions to address underlying issues associated with violent crime including poverty, racism, unemployment, and ecological correlates such as high alcohol outlet density and violent crime, issues of violence will remain unresolved. It is important to further note that because we controlled for Census data derived covariates related to percent Black and Hispanic community members, and median household income, we can exclude individual-related factors (Lardier et al., 2019).

As we consider the findings presented in this study alongside the extant research, we are reminded of the insidious association between alcohol outlet density and violent crime proximal to these stores. Results from this study add and reinforce the extant research that shows the stronger and positive influence license C alcohol outlet density (i.e. on and off premises alcohol outlets) has on aggravated assaults, when compared to license D alcohol outlet density (i.e. off premises licensed outlets). A unique contribution to the literature is our inclusion of examining the role of abandoned property density on aggravated assaults. These results illustrate the ways in which abandoned properties have an equally harmful effect on the ecology of the community (Han & Helm, 2020), particularly after controlling for the density of alcohol stores, increased poverty, and neighborhood density (Lardier et al., 2019). While it is expected for police calls to be high in these designated “hot-spot” neighborhoods, as this study revealed, there is reason for concern, when considered alongside the difficult relationship that the police have in present-day and historically with low-income, urban, and under-served communities of color (Rinehart Kochel, 2011; Vitale, 2017). Therefore, the results from this study have clear implications for intervention and prevention.

Findings from this study should be considered alongside several limitations. First, the data obtained from the city’s Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) board contained minimal information. Therefore, the analysis was unable to differentiate subtypes (beyond license category) of alcohol outlets, such as data concerning type of alcohol sold (e.g. liquor sales versus wine or beers sales) volume of sales, area of floor space, and hours of operation. These additional data points could be important because bars and restaurants tend have different associations with violence (Grubesic et al., 2013; Sacks et al., 2020) and as previous studies have indicated, it is important to isolate these different effects associated with particularly types of outlets (Holmes et al., 2014). Therefore, future studies are encouraged to identify multiple points of data to include in analyses on alcohol outlet density.

Second, like alcohol outlet density data, abandoned property density data were obtained from the city Housing Authority office. These data only included abandoned/vacant property data and did not include data on recent foreclosures in the community, which contributes to the number of vacant properties (Cui & Walsh, 2015). Therefore, abandoned property count data may be an undercount of the actual number of vacant properties in this impoverished and densely populated city. Future studies are encouraged to identify data from multiple sources that may include Habitat for Humanity, which may have a more comprehensive list of recently foreclosed or vacant homes that can be compared to and merged with the city’s local Housing Authority.

Third, studies that are specific to one city may also suffer from edge effects or boundary problem where neighboring data outside a geographic boundary that are related to those within the boundary are not included. In this study, the level of aggravated assaults in census block groups located along the city boundaries may also be associated with alcohol outlets located just over the border. Similarly, data generated on crime were those reported to the police. Thus, rates of aggravated assaults reported may be under-reported. Some evidence indicates that simple assaults that involve little or no physical contact are either under-reported or not reported at all (Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Markowitz, 2005). Further, communities of color tend to be distrustful of police and may underreport certain crimes in their community (Furr-Holden et al., 2019; Markowitz, 2005). Future research should consider using additional points of data to examine violent crime rates in a community such as data on victims of violent crime appearing in hospitals (Gruenewald, 2007; Gruenewald et al., 2006), which in tandem with police-incidence reports may begin to provide a more holistic understanding of violent crime in a target community.

Fourth, this is an ecological, cross-sectional study and cannot determine causality in isolation. Prior longitudinal studies have provided some evidence on the association between alcohol outlet density (Jennings et al., 2014), the density of vacant or abandoned properties (Jones & Pridemore, 2016; Larson et al., 2019), and violent crime in a community, separately. However, one must consider the ecological fallacy, which states that findings at the population level might not generalize to the individual level. It must also be considered that there are unmeasured covariates that explain the association between alcohol outlet access and violent crime; though analyses included variables such as abandoned property counts and median household income. These may include the presence of illegal drug markets (Giesbrecht et al., 2016). It is also possible that areas that have more crime may attract more alcohol outlets, a relationship that cannot be tested using cross sectional data alone. Similarly, increased police presence may contribute to violence, opposed to being simply associated with violent crime (Aymer, 2016; Desmond & Valdez, 2013), another relationship that cannot be tested crossectionally.

A fifth limitation concerns the politically determined geographic units used in this study—i.e. census block groups. These geographic units vary in shape and size and can—overtime shift—which may influence outcomes of studies (Biemer & Peytchev, 2013). Research using aggregated data instead of individual-level data might result in different results at different aggregation levels, such that the associations identified in the present study can only infer results at the census block group level. While we observe consistency in findings across studies on the association between alcohol outlet densities, the density of abandoned/vacant properties, and police call to service on aggravated assaults in the community, this limitation should be considered when interpreting findings, as it may have some unobserved biases on analyses.

Last, police officer call to service data had about 30% missing data from geocoding. Although it is difficult to assess the potential bias especially in spatial pattern since it is unknown to us the location of unsuccessfully geocoded data, previous literature has suggested that missing geocodes/unsuccessfully geocoded addresses from large 911-call data are less likely to result in significant bias in analysis (Jones et al., 2019). A further examination of the police officer call to service data found that there are several reasons calls may have high number and percentage of missing geocodes: officer special assignment, moving violation traffic stop, officer administrative response, warrant arrest, accidence, and accident report of injuries.

Despite limitations, there are important implications to consider. As we take into account implications from this research, it is important recall that most strategies related to ameliorating community violence focus on the individual-based interventions associated with increasing police presence in these communities (Aymer, 2016; Murphy et al., 2018; Rinehart Kochel, 2011; Vitale, 2017), without necessarily considering the ecology of the community, such as alcohol outlet density and the density of abandoned/vacant properties (Lardier et al., 2019). In addition, as previous research has concluded, limiting alcohol outlet density has been connected to preventing related harms (Campbell et al., 2009). Therefore, it may be important to build upon the urban planning, land-use policy work. This literature provides guidelines on the number of establishments allowed in a designated community and through zoning restriction access to alcohol outlets, which based on findings from this study, were associated with assaults. Similarly, changing laws on alcohol outlet density is difficult, therefore, a more attainable path to influence local level alcohol policy may be limiting hours of operation (Myran et al., 2019; Sherk et al., 2018). We are not suggesting a prohibition on alcohol products but that both state and local policymakers consider the negative effects of highly dense alcohol outlets in under-resourced urban communities, and the negative ramifications on community health and wellness, as well as safety.

Likewise, efforts need to be put in place to coordinate external community actors (e.g. policy makers, local businesses, community members) to intervene and identify opportunities to either redevelop and remove locations with broad swaths of vacant or abandoned properties (Boessen & Chamberlain, 2017). An example of a federal program focused on redevelopment and rehabilitation is the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, which provided $7 billion toward these efforts with a goal of purchasing foreclosed, abandoned/vacant homes and either repairing or repurposing for other uses (see Mallach, 2010). However, it is important to note that such efforts cannot be conducted successfully if gentrification is a likely outcome; therefore, policymakers and local agencies should partner with community members and community coalitions to develop strategic partnerships and plans to develop and address socio-ecological concerns such as abandoned/vacant properties. For instance, community members may decide that dollars should be spent to remove abandoned/vacant properties to make space for community gardens or greening vacant lands, which have related to crime reduction (Kondo et al., 2018). This may be a worthwhile effort because recent research indicates that the demolition of abandoned/vacant properties alone does not deter or eliminate crime; instead focusing on improving neighborhood social and physical characteristics is equally critical (Han & Helm, 2020).

While police calls to service was a secondary aim, we did identify significant associations on aggravated assaults when controlling for both alcohol outlet density and abandoned/vacant properties. The associations in this study indicate that police calls/presence within the community is consistent with high amount of police calls for service related to violence; yet the presence of police in a community can have psychological effects of residents who may have difficulty engaging with police officers. Utilizing community organizations within this work can aid in reducing the amount of police presence by targeting the underlying issues that have resulted in heavy police presence because of poverty, systemic racism, and neighborhood segregation.

In sum, this study highlights the importance of recognizing the association between alcohol outlet density, abandoned properties, and police calls to service with aggravated assault rates in an urban neighborhood. And while there are limitations associated with this study, it positions the still nascent understanding and difference between license C outlet density (i.e. combined on and off premises) versus license D outlet density (i.e. off premises) on aggravated assault rates, and when controlling for alcohol outlet density, the role of abandoned properties and police presence within urban communities of color. In addition, states are rolling back regulations on alcohol outlet access (such as Lubbock, Texas adding 140 off premises alcohol outlets in 2009 or in the State of New Mexico, the 2020 legislature voting to allow home delivery of alcohol) providing a critical need to further evidence-based research to inform policy initiatives. As Tragenstein et al. (2020) noted, retrospective analyses, as conducted in this study, provide important information on the consequences of policy decisions; however, it is important to engage in proactive cost-benefit analyses at the state-level, while also considering retrospective studies such as this paper, to make evidence-based policy decisions.

Funding

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Center for Substance Abuse Prevention (CSAP), Grant No. SPO20229-01. Dr. Opara is funded by the National Institutes of Health, Office of the Director (DP5OD029636).

Footnotes

Declaration of interest

All authors certify that they have no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.

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