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Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2021 Aug 18;136(8):853. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01862-6

Bifurcation analysis of a discrete-time compartmental model for hypertensive or diabetic patients exposed to COVID-19

Muhammad Salman Khan 1, Maria samreen 1, Muhammad Ozair 2, Takasar Hussain 2, J F Gómez-Aguilar 3,
PMCID: PMC8372232  PMID: 34426778

Abstract

In this article, a mathematical model for hypertensive or diabetic patients open to COVID-19 is considered along with a set of first-order nonlinear differential equations. Moreover, the method of piecewise arguments is used to discretize the continuous system. The mathematical system is said to reveal six equilibria, namely, extinction equilibrium, boundary equilibrium, quarantined-free equilibrium, exposure-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and the equilibrium free from susceptible population. Local stability conditions are developed for our discrete-time mathematical system about each of its equilibrium point. The existence of period-doubling bifurcation and chaos is studied in the absence of isolated population. It is shown that our system will become unstable and experiences the chaos when the quarantined compartment is empty, which is true in biological meanings. The existence of Neimark–Sacker bifurcation is studied for the endemic equilibrium point. Moreover, it is shown numerically that our discrete-time mathematical system experiences the period-doubling bifurcation about its endemic equilibrium. To control the period-doubling bifurcation, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation, a generalized hybrid control methodology is used. Moreover, this model is analyzed along with generalized hybrid control in order to eliminate chaos and oscillation epidemiologically presenting the significance of quarantine in the COVID-19 environment.

Introduction

Mathematical models are convenient to recognize the nature of an infection when it arrives a community and to explore under which circumstances it will be continued or wiped out from that community. Presently, COVID-19 is of main alarm to governments, researchers and to all of the mankind. This is due to the high percentage of the infection range and the very high number of deaths that happened. The very first case of infectious disease COVID-19 is reported in Wuhan city of China. Moreover, it spread almost everywhere in the world. On January 2020, the WHO approved its outburst as a public health disaster of international concern. On April 2020, 47, 249 people had died and the total of 936,237 people are tested positive for COVID-19 [1]. COVID-19 ranges due to the interaction of individuals with infected individual when they sneeze or cough. COVID-19 is a respiratory disease with slight to temperate signs like fever, dry cough and tiredness. In severe cases, it causes the difficulty in breathing [1]. Also, few people having mild symptoms of COVID-19 disease may recuperate themselves if they evade to contact with infected cases and maintain good sanitization. COVID-19 is a key health warning to individuals with a previous medical history and also to individuals who are 60 years or above in age (elderly population). This was described by Li et al. [2] who considered the average age of 425 people infected with COVID-19 in city Wuhan, China, and almost half of the patients were above the age of 60. Governments of every country in the world are taking numerous defensive measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Till date, there is no effective vaccine present in the world to fight against the COVID-19 virus. Hence, stopping the spread is the only way to fight against this virus. Defensive actions include sanitizing hands regularly, keeping the distance of 1 meter at least from a person coughing or sneezing, and maintaining social distance. Numerous mathematical models have been established so far to report various challenges in foreseeing the outburst of COVID-19 disease. The author in [3] has used the elementary SIR-model to discover the real dimensions of the epidemic. Peng et al. [4] analyzed the situation of COVID-19 in China by expressing the SEIR dynamical system. Furthermore, he have foretold that the situation will be under control at the start of April. Sun et al. [5] argued numerous parts of COVID-19 condition in China which assistances recognize the casualty rate and spread rate of COVID-19 and control the epidemic transmission. In the situation of COVID-19 prevalent, experience to disease plays a dynamic role in the transmission of the COVID-19. The author in [6] has studied numerous models and determined that with the basic reproduction number being 2 and bearing in mind the 14-day contagious period, if an infected individual stays for 9 or more hours with others, he could infect others. If the contact time is 18 h, the model endorses total shield with more than 70 usefulness to the attendees of the communal gathering. The authors in [7] have discussed the importance of travel restriction to control the COVID-19 disease. In addition, they explained that these travel restriction delayed the progression of disease in Wuhan city of China. A related consequence was also revealed by Kucharski et al. [8]. They exposed that with the journey limitation in Wuhan, the daily reproduction number decayed from 2.35 to 1.05. Furthermore, there is correspondingly a model calculated by Tang et al. [9] and Tang et al. [10] wherein they separated the subpopulation into isolated and unisolated classes to know the spread threat of the epidemic.

Khan et al. [11] have studied the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation by considering the number of real statistical cases reported in China. The authors in [12] have studied the dynamics of a mathematical model by using classical Caputo fractional derivative. Oud et al. [13] have studied a fractional order mathematical model for COVID-19 dynamics with isolation, quarantine, and environmental viral load. For the study of some interesting models related to COVID-19 pandemic, we refer a reader to [1417]. From the evaluations so far, we have noticed that isolation plays a huge role in controlling the disease spread. Here, we have considered a mathematically compartmental model for the persons already anguish from hypertension or diabetes who are at a greater chance of getting infected with COVID-19 (see [1]). Moreover, the authors in [1] have considered a model by means of Z-control applied to the isolated class to get the essential exposure state in command to make the system free of chaos.

Limited number of basic models related to the Z-control contains wide-ranging model by Samanta [18] and prey-predator model by Alzahrani et al. [19]. With three conjointly exclusive classes, namely, susceptible class, tested for hypertension or diabetes (S); exposed or unprotected class (E); and quarantine class (Q). Values of parameters considered in the preparation of our mathematical system are provided in Table 1. In our model, the susceptible class is considered as a population tested for hypertension or suffering from diabetes. Here, the birth rate for new individuals is represented by B,  and all the population in their particular sections undergo death at the uniform rate μ. Let us represent the saturated rate by β2SEa+S, where a is the constant of saturation and β2 is the infection force as shown in Fig. 1. With the help of Fig. 1, we get the following system of nonlinear differential equations [1]:

dSdt=BS-β1SE-β2SEa+S-β4SQb+S-μS2,dEdt=β1SE+β2SEa+S-β3EQd+E-μE,dQdt=c1β3QEd+E+c2β4SQb+S-μQ, 1

where, S0, E0, Q0.

Table 1.

Definitions of parameters and their respective values

Notations Clarification Values of parameters
B Birth rate +ve Assumed
β1 Transmission rate of individuals from SE 0.9 Calculated
β2 Infection rate 0.001 Assumed
β3 Rate at which exposed persons get quarantined 0.80 Calculated
β4 Rate at which susceptible persons get quarantined 0.60 Calculated
abd Half-saturation constants 2, 10, 0.4 Assumed
c1,c2 Conversion efficiency 1, 2 Assumed

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Flow diagram representing the shifting of any individual from one class to other class

In [20], Singh et al. show that the discretization by using Euler’s scheme is not appropriate for every continuous-time dynamical. Furthermore, it violates accuracy of the numerical method and bifurcations occur for larger values of step size used in Euler’s scheme. In order to eliminate this lack, a different discretization technique can be applied as follows: Supposing that the ordinary evolution rates in each of the compartments vary at the fixed pause of time. Then by using the technique of piecewise constant arguments(see [21]) for differential equations, system (1) can be written as:

1S(t)dS(t)dt=B-β1E[(t)]-β2E[(t)]a+S[(t)]-β4Q[(t)]b+S[(t)]-μS[(t)],1E(t)dE(t)dt=β1S[(t)]+β2S[(t)]a+S[(t)]-β3Q[(t)]d+E[(t)]-μ,1Q(t)dQ(t)dt=c1β3E[(t)]d+E[(t)]+c2β4S[(t)]b+S[(t)]-μ, 2

where 0<t< and [t] represents the integer part of t. Furthermore, on an interval [n,n+1) with nW one can get the next system by integrating system (2) for t[n,n+1), nW.

S(t)=Sne[B-β1En-β2Ena+Sn-β4Qnb+Sn-μSn](t-n),E(t)=Ene[β1Sn+β2Sna+Sn-β3Qnd+En-μ](t-n),Q(t)=Qne[c1β3End+En+c2β4Snb+Sn-μ](t-n). 3

by letting tn+1 , we get the following discrete-time mathematical model from system (3):

Sn+1=SneB-β1En-β2Ena+Sn-β4Qnb+Sn-μSn,En+1=Eneβ1Sn+β2Sna+Sn-β3Qnd+En-μ,Qn+1=Qnec1β3End+En+c2β4Snb+Sn-μ. 4

The aim of our study in this article is to explain the boundedness of every solution of the system (4). To discuss the local stability of system (4) about each of its equilibrium point. Moreover, the existence of Neimark–Sacker bifurcation and chaos for one and only equilibrium point of system (4) is scrutinized. In concern to control the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation and, a modified hybrid control technique is implemented [22] in Sect. 6. In final section, some numerical examples are provided.

Boundedness of system (4)

In this section, the boundedness of every positive solution (Sn,En,Qn) is proved. For this purpose, the next lemma is presented.

Lemma 2.1

[23] Assume that λn fulfills λn+1λnexp(a(1-bλn)) for every n[n1,) with λ0>0, where a,b>0. Then,

limnsupλn1abexp(a-1).

Lemma 2.2

Every solution (Sn,En,Qn) of system (4) is bounded uniformly if for a finite NR, we have

limnsupEnN.

Proof

Assume that S0>0, E0>0 and Q0>0 then each solution (Sn,En,Qn) of system (4) satisfies Sn>0, En>0 and Qn>0 for each n0. Firstly, by taking into account the positivity of solutions of (4) and from first equation of system (4) it can be seen that

Sn+1=SnexpB-β1En-β2Ena+Sn-β4Qnb+Sn-μSnSnexpB-β1En-β2Ena+Sn-μSnSnexp(B-μSn)=SnexpB(1-μBSn).

Next, by applying Lemma 2.3 we get

limnsupSn1μexp(B-1)=ϝ(say).

Now, from third equation of system (4) it can be seen that

Qn+1=Qnexpc1β3End+En+c2β4Snb+Sn-μQnexpc1β3Nd+N+c2β4(B-β1N-β2Na+ϝ-β4Qnb+ϝ)μbQnexpc1β3Nd+N+c2β4Bμb-c2β42Bμb(b+ϝ)Qn=Qnexp(μNbc1β3+c2β4B(d+N))μb(d+N)1-c2β42B(d+N)Qn(b+ϝ)(μNbc1β3+c2β4B(d+N)).

Hence, by applying Lemma 2.3 we get

limnsupQn1c2β42Bμb(b+ϝ)exp(μNbc1β3+c2β4B(d+N))μb(d+N)-1.

By using the method of mathematical induction, one can prove the next result.

Lemma 2.3

Assume that 0<S0<1μexp(B-1), 0<E0<N and

0<Q0<1c2β42Bμb(b+ϝ)exp(μNbc1β3+c2β4B(d+N))μb(d+N)-1,

then the set [0,1μexp(B-1)]×[0,N]×[0,1c2β42Bμb(b+ϝ)exp(μNbc1β3+c2β4B(d+N))μb(d+N)-1] remains invariant for every solution (Sn,En,Qn) of the system (4).

Existence of equilibrium points and local stability of system (4)

In this section, we contemplate probable equilibrium points (SEQ) of system (4), which can be acquired by considering the next system:

S=SeB-β1E-β2Ea+S-β4Qb+S-μS,E=Eeβ1S+β2Sa+S-β3Qd+E-μ,Q=Qec1β3Ed+E+c2β4Sb+S-μ. 5

On solving system (5), one can obtain six equilibrium points (0, 0, 0), (Bμ,0,0), (0,dμc1β3-μ,dμc1μ-c1β3), (μb(c2β4-μ),0,bc2(Bc2β4-bμ2-Bμ)(c2β4-μ)2), (S¯,E¯,0), and the unique positive equilibrium point (S,E,Q).

Remark 3.1

The equilibrium point (0,dμc1β3-μ,dμc1μ-c1β3) ceased to exist as one of the components from dμc1β3-μ or dμc1μ-c1β3 remains negative for every c1,β3,μ>0.

Let

FJ=j11j12j13j21j22j23j31j32j33

be the variational matrix evaluated at (S,E,Q). Then, characteristic polynomial H(ω) of matrix FJ is:

H(ω)=ω3-A1ω2+A2ω-A3, 6

where

A1=(j11+j22+j33),A2=J11+J22+J33,

and

A3=det(FJ).

Where J11, J22 and J33 are minor determinants of Jacobian matrix FJ. Firstly, we explore the stability analysis of the trivial fixed point (0, 0, 0). The Jacobian matrix FJ1 about equilibrium point (0, 0, 0), is given by;

FJ1=eB000e-μ000e-μ.

In addition, FJ1 has three eigenvalues, namely τ1=eB, τ2=e-μ and τ3=e-μ, such that |τ1|>1 and |τ2|=|τ3|<1 remains true for all parametric values. Hence, we conclude the following proposition about the local stability of (4) about (0, 0, 0).

Proposition 3.1

Let (0, 0, 0) be a equilibrium point of (4), then (0, 0, 0) remains unstable for every B,μ>0.

From Proposition 3.1, one can observe that the extinction equilibrium point is mathematically unstable and biologically it is not possible to hold whenever any one of the three classes from (4) exists. Next, our goal is to explore the local stability of system (4) about (Bμ,0,0). The matrix of variation FJ2 evaluated about (Bμ,0,0) can be calculated as:

FJ2=1-B-Bβ1μ-Bβ2B+aμ-Bβ4B+bμ0e-μ+Bβ1μ+Bβ2B+aμ000e-μ-Bc2β4B+bμ.

Let us assume that H(τ) is characteristic polynomial of Jacobian matrix FJ2. Then, characteristic roots of H(τ)=0 are given by τ1=1-B, τ2=1eμ-Bβ1μ-Bβ2B+aμ and τ3=1eμ+Bc2β4B+bμ. Hence, we have the following proposition related to the local stability of (4) about (Bμ,0,0) (Fig. 2, 3).

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Stable region for (Bμ,0,0) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , 0<B<1,0<μ<2 and S0=0.995,E0=0.38855,Q0=0.3455

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Stable and unstable regions for bμc2β4-μ,0,bc2Bc2β4-μ(B+bμ)μ-c2β42 for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , 0<B<5,0<μ<1 and S0=0.995,E0=0.38855,Q0=0.3455

Proposition 3.2

Let (Bμ,0,0) be a equilibrium point of (4) then;

  • (i)
    (Bμ,0,0) is a stable equilibrium point if |τ1|,|τ2|,|τ3|<1 if and only if
    0<B<2andμ2(B+aμ)>B(β1(B+aμ)+μβ2).
  • (ii)
    (Bμ,0,0) is a unstable equilibrium point if
    B>2.

Consider the equilibrium point bμc2β4-μ,0,bc2Bc2β4-μ(B+bμ)μ-c2β42 of system (4) and suppose FJ3 be the matrix of variation for system (4) about bμc2β4-μ,0,bc2Bc2β4-μ(B+bμ)μ-c2β42 . Then, FJ3 has the following mathematical form:

FJ3=1+μ(B+bμ)c2β4+2bμ2μ-c2β4bμβ1μ-c2β4+β2aμ-bμ-ac2β4-μc20e-μ+bμβ1-μ+c2β4+bμβ2(-a+b)μ+ac2β4+bc2β3μ(B+bμ)-Bc2β4dμ-c2β420e-2μμ(B+bμ)-Bc2β4β4-be-2μc1c2β3μ(B+bμ)-Bc2β4dμ-c2β42e-2μ.

Assume that H(ψ) is characteristic polynomial of Jacobian matrix FJ3. Then, characteristic roots of H(ψ)=0 are given by

ψ1=1eμ-bμβ1c2β4-μ-bμβ2(b-a)μ+ac2β4-bc2β3μ(B+bμ)-Bc2β4dμ-c2β42,ψ2,ψ3=a11±a12+a13e2μ2c2β4μ-c2β4,

where

a11=e2μμ2(B+bμ)+μ1+e2μ(1-B+bμ)c2β4-1+e2μc22β42,a12=e2μμ2(B+bμ)+c2β4μ+e2μμ(1-B+bμ)-1+e2μc2β42,anda13=4e2μc2β4c2β4-μμ2(1+μ)(B+bμ)-c2β4μ(B-1+2Bμ+b(μ-1)μ)+(Bμ-1)c2β4. 7

Proposition 3.3

Let bμc2β4-μ,0,bc2Bc2β4-μ(B+bμ)μ-c2β42 be a equilibrium point of (4) and ψ1, ψ2 and ψ3 are characteristic roots for FJ3, then bμc2β4-μ,0,bc2Bc2β4-μ(B+bμ)μ-c2β42 remains stable if

μ>bμβ1c2β4-μ+bμβ2(b-a)μ+ac2β4+bc2β3μ(B+bμ)-Bc2β4dμ-c2β42

and

|a11±a12+a13|<e2μ2c2β4μ-c2β4

with μ>c2β4 and a11,a12,a13 are given in (7).

It is prominent that the equilibrium points of mathematical system (4), that is, the solution of system (5) cannot be unique, however, for biological aims; we are concerned to the positive results of (5). Hence, we do not care about exactly how many results are there of system (5). From the system (5), we get

E=-d1+c1β3(b+S)μ(b+S)+c2β4+S-c1β3(b+S)

and

Q=-(d+E)β3μ-β1+β2(a+S)S,

where S is one of the roots of cubic polynomial:

g(t)=A11t3+B11t2+C11t+D11, 8

where

A11=μ(c1β3+c2β4-μ),B11=(B-(a+b)μ)(μ-c1β3)-(B-aμ)c2β4+dβ1(μ+(c1-c2)β4),C11=((a+b)B-abμ)(μ-c1β3)-(dμc1+aBc2)β4+(μ+(c1-c2)β4)dβ2+((a+b)μ+a(c1-c2)β4)dβ1,D11=(ab(B+dβ1)+dbβ3)μ-ac1(bBβ3+dμβ4). 9

We are looking for the unique positive equilibrium point of system (5). For this, we have the following Descartes rule of signs (see [24]).

Lemma 3.1

[24] Let f1(x)=bnxn+bn-1xn-1+bn-2xn-2+.....+b1x+b0 be a polynomial function with real coefficients. Then, the number of positive real roots of f1 is either the same as the number of sign changes for f1(x) or less than by a positive even integer. Moreover, if f(x) has only one variation in sign, then f1 has exactly one positive real root.

Using Lemma 3.1, we have the following result for existence of unique positive real root of polynomial g(t) given in (8).

Lemma 3.2

Polynomial g(t) in (8) has unique positive real root if one of the following conditions hold:

i.A1<0,B11<0,C11<0,D11>0.

ii.A11<0,B11>0,C11>0,D11>0.

Lemma 3.3

Let S is one of the roots of cubic polynomial (8). Then, under the conditions of lemma 3.2, system (1) has one and only positive fixed point if the following conditions are satisfied:

c1β3+c2β4<μ<(c2-c1)β4

and

B<μ.

Proof

Positive equilibrium point of (4) fulfills algebraic equations same to its continuous counterpart (1). In case of system (1), the evidence is specified in [1].

Local stability analysis of system (4) about its endemic equilibrium

We consider the Jacobian matrix FJ4 of system (4) about unique positive equilibrium point (S,E,Q).

FJ4=1+Sβ2Ea+S2-μ+β4Qb+S2-Sβ1+β2a+S-β4Sb+SEaβ2+β1a+S2a+S2d+E2+β3EQd+E2-β3Ed+E-bc2β4Qb+S2dc1β3Qd+E21. 10

Moreover, assume that (14) be the characteristic equation of (10). Then, in direction to study the stability analysis of one and only positive equilibrium point, we have the next theorem, which provides us freely confirmable necessary and sufficient situations for all the roots of real polynomial of degree 3 to have magnitude smaller than one (see, Theorem 5 from [25]).

Theorem 4.1

Assume the next third-degree polynomial equation

H(ω)=ω3-A1ω2+A2ω-A3, 11

where A1,A2,A3R. Then, necessary and sufficient conditions that all roots of (11) lie inside an open disk are given as follows:

|A1+A3|<1+A2,|A1-3A3|<3-A2,A32+A2-A1A3<1. 12

Theorem 4.2

The unique positive equilibrium point (S,E,Q) of system (4) is locally asymptotically stable if the following conditions are satisfied:

|A1+A3|<1+A2,|A1-3A3|<3-A2,A32+A2-A1A3<1.

where

A1=3+β3EQτ2+-μ+β2Eρ2+β4Qσ2S,A2=3+dc1β32EQτ3+Sρ3β12+ρ2+(a+ρ)β1β2+aβ22Eρ3-2μ+β4Qσ-bc2β4σ3+1σ2+β3EQρ2β4QS+2ρ2+-μρ2+β2ESσ2ρ2τ2σ2,A3=1ρ3σ3τ3ρ3σ3τ3+β3τ+dc1β3EQ+σ3τ3ρ3β12+ρ1+(a+ρ)β1β2+aβ22E-μρ3-ρρ3σ3τ3bρ2τ3c2β42+σ3β3τ+dc1β3Eμρ2-β2E+1ρ3σ3τ3στβ4-ρ2τ2+bρτc2ρβ1+β2+dσc1ρ2β1+aβ2β3EQ+ρ3β3β4ρ3σ3τ3dσc1β3+τσ-bc2β4EQ2S,a+S=ρ,b+S=σ,andd+E=τ. 13

Proof

The Jacobian matrix for system (4) evaluated at unique positive fixed point (S,E,Q) is given by

FJ4=1+Sβ2Ea+S2-μ+β4Qb+S2-Sβ1+β2a+S-β4Sb+SEaβ2+β1a+S2a+S2d+E2+β3EQd+E2-β3Ed+E-bc2β4Qb+S2dc1β3Qd+E21.

Then, characteristic polynomial H(ω) from matrix FJ4 is given by:

H(ω)=ω3-A1ω2+A2ω-A3, 14

where A1,A2 and A3 are given in (13). Now, by using Theorem 4.1, the one and only positive equilibrium point (S,E,Q) is locally asymptotically stable if the following inequalities are satisfied:

|A1+A3|<1+A2,|A1-3A3|<3-A2,A32+A2-A1A3<1.

Period-doubling bifurcation

In this part of article, we examine that quarantined free fixed point of system (4) experience period-doubling bifurcation. For this bifurcation concept, center manifold theorem is applied after the application of normal forms to show the existence and direction of such kind of bifurcation. Freshly, period-doubling bifurcation associated with discrete-time models has been explored by many authors [2630]

Under the suppositions that B>μ and Qn0,n, we study the following set:

Φ1={a,B,d,β1,β2R+:μ=f(S¯,E¯,a,B,d,β1,β2)},

Then, the quarantined free fixed point (S¯,E¯,0) of system (4) experiences period-doubling bifurcation such that μ is taken as bifurcation parameter, and it varies in a slight neighborhood of μ^, which is given as

μ^=f(S¯,E¯,a,B,d,β1,β2).

In addition, system (4) is characterized evenly with the next two-dimensional map:

SESeB-β1E-β2Ea+S-μSEeβ1S+β2Sa+S-μ. 15

To discuss and analyze the period-doubling bifurcation for steady state (S¯,E¯,0) of (15), we suppose that a,B,d,β1,β2,μ^Φ1. Then, it follows that

SESeB-β1E-β2Ea+S-μ^SEeβ1S+β2Sa+S-μ^. 16

Taking μ¯ as small parameter for bifurcation, then the perturbation of mapping (15) can be described by the next map:

SESeB-β1E-β2Ea+S-(μ^+μ¯)SEeβ1S+β2Sa+S-(μ^+μ¯) 17

where |μ¯|1, is a small parameter for perturbation.

Taking x=S-S¯ and y=E-E¯. Then, from (17)we obtained the next map whose fixed point is at (0, 0) ;

xyθ11θ12ϕ21ϕ22xy+f1(x,y,μ¯)f2(x,y,μ¯), 18

where

f1(x,y,μ¯)=θ13x2+θ14xy+θ15xμ¯+θ16y2+θ17μ¯y+θ18μ¯2+θ19x3+θ20x2y+θ21μ¯x2+θ22xy2+θ23xyμ¯+θ24xμ¯2+θ25yμ¯2+θ26μ¯3+O(|x|+|y|+|μ¯|)4,f2(x,y,η¯)=ϕ13x2+ϕ14xy+ϕ15yμ¯+ϕ16μ¯2+ϕ17x3+ϕ18x2y+ϕ19μ¯x2+ϕ20μ¯xy+ϕ21μ¯2x+ϕ22yμ¯2+ϕ23μ¯3+O(|x|+|y|+|μ¯|)4,

with

θ11=S¯E¯β2(a+S¯)2-μ¯,θ12=-S¯β1+β2a+S¯,θ13=12μ¯(S¯μ¯-2)+E¯β22(a+S¯)(a-S¯(a+S¯)μ¯)+E¯S¯β2(a+S¯)4,θ14=-β1-β2a+S¯+S¯β2(a+S¯)2+S¯β2E¯(a+S¯)2-μ¯-β1-β2a+S¯,θ15=S¯S¯μ¯-2-E¯S¯β2(a+S¯)2,θ16=S¯(a+S¯)β1+β222(a+S¯)2,θ17=S¯2(a+S¯)β1+β2a+S¯,θ18=S¯32,θ19=16μ¯2(3-S¯μ¯)+E¯β23(a+S¯)2-2a-2a(a+S¯)μ¯+S¯(a+S¯)2μ¯2+E¯β2-3(a+S¯)(-a+S¯+S¯(a+S¯)μ¯)+E¯S¯β2(a+S¯)6,θ20=β2(a+S¯)2+β2E¯(a+S¯)2-μ¯-β1-β2a+S¯-S¯β2(a+S¯)3-Sβ2E-β1-β2a+S(a+S¯)3+Sβ2E¯(a+S¯)2-μ¯β2(a+S¯)2+12S¯β2E¯(a+S¯)2-μ¯2-β1-β2a+S,θ21=-1+ES2β2(a+S)3+2Sμ¯-eβ2(a+S¯)2-12S¯2μ¯-E¯β2(a+S¯)22,θ22=-(a+S¯)β1+β2(a+S¯)3(-1+Sμ¯)β1+(a+S¯)-a+S¯+S¯(a+S¯)μ¯-E¯S¯β1β2-E¯S¯β222(a+S¯)4,θ23=2S¯β1+β2a+S¯-S¯2(a+S¯)2+S¯2β2E¯(a+S¯)2-μ¯β1+β2a+S¯,θ24=12S¯23-S¯μ¯+E¯S¯β2(a+S¯)2,θ25=-S¯3(a+S¯)β1+β22(a+S¯),θ26=-S¯46,ϕ11=E¯β1+aβ2(a+S¯)2,ϕ12=1,ϕ13=E¯(a+S¯)4β12+2a(a+S)-1+(a+S)β1β2+a2β222(a+S)4,ϕ14=β1+aβ2(a+S¯)2,ϕ15=-1,ϕ16=E¯2,ϕ17=E¯-6S¯(a+S¯)2β2+6(a+S¯)3β2-6a(a+S¯)β2(a+S¯)2β1+aβ2+(a+S¯)2β1+aβ236(a+S¯)6,ϕ18=-2a(a+S¯)β2+(a+S¯)2β1+aβ222(a+S¯)4,ϕ19=-E¯(a+S¯)4β12+2a(a+S¯)(a+S¯)β1-1β2+a2β222(a+S¯)4,ϕ20=-β1-aβ2(a+S¯)2,ϕ21=12E¯β1+aβ2(a+S¯)2,ϕ22=12,ϕ23=-E¯6.

Assume that ξ1,ξ2 are eigenvalues for system (15), then we have the following translation;

xy=Muv, 19

where

M=-S¯β1+β2a+S¯-S¯β1+β2a+S¯S¯μ¯-E¯S¯β2(a+S¯)2-1ξ2-S¯E¯β2(a+S¯)2-μ¯

be a nonsingular matrix. By applying transformation (19), the map (18) can be written as:

uv-100ξ2uv+f(u,v,μ¯)g(u,v,μ¯), 20

where

f(u,v,μ¯)=ξ2-θ11θ26θ12ξ2+1-ϕ23ξ2+1μ¯3+ξ2-θ11θ24θ12ξ2+1-ϕ21ξ2+1μ¯2x+ξ2-θ11θ25θ12ξ2+1-ϕ22ξ2+1μ¯2y+ξ2-θ11θ18θ12ξ2+1-ϕ16ξ2+1μ¯2+ξ2-θ11θ21θ12ξ2+1-ϕ19ξ2+1μ¯x2+ξ2-θ11θ23θ12ξ2+1-ϕ20ξ2+1μ¯xy+ξ2-θ11θ15μ¯xθ12ξ2+1+ξ2-θ11θ17θ12ξ2+1-ϕ15ξ2+1yμ¯+ξ2-θ11θ19θ12ξ2+1-ϕ17ξ2+1x3+ξ2-θ11θ20θ12ξ2+1-ϕ18ξ2+1x2y+ξ2-θ11θ13θ12ξ2+1-ϕ13ξ2+1x2+ξ2-θ11θ22xy2θ12ξ2+1+ξ2-θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1-ϕ14ξ2+1xy+ξ2-θ11θ16y2θ12ξ2+1+O(|u|+|v|+|μ¯|)4,g(u,v,μ¯)=1+θ11θ26θ12ξ2+1+ϕ23ξ2+1μ¯3+1+θ11θ24θ12ξ2+1+ϕ21ξ2+1μ¯2x+1+θ11θ25θ12ξ2+1+ϕ22ξ2+1μ¯2y+1+θ11θ18θ12ξ2+1+ϕ16ξ2+1μ¯2+1+θ11θ21θ12ξ2+1+ϕ19ξ2+1μ¯x2+1+θ11θ23θ12ξ2+1+ϕ20ξ2+1μ¯xy+1+θ11θ15μ¯xθ12ξ2+1+1+θ11θ17θ12ξ2+1+ϕ15ξ2+1yμ¯+1+θ11θ19θ12ξ2+1+ϕ17ξ2+1x3+1+θ11θ20θ12ξ2+1+ϕ18ξ2+1x2y+1+θ11θ13θ12ξ2+1+ϕ13ξ2+1x2+1+θ11θ22xy2θ12ξ2+1+1+θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1+ϕ14ξ2+1xy+1+θ11θ16y2θ12ξ2+1+O(|u|+|v|+|μ¯|)4,

where,

x=θ12(u+v),y=-(1+θ11)u+(ξ2-θ11)v.

Assume that c(0,0,0) be the center manifold of (20) intended at (0, 0) in a smallest neighborhood of η¯=0. Then, c(0,0,0) can be estimated as follows:

c(0,0,0)=(u,v,μ¯)R3:v=M11u2+M12uμ¯+M13μ¯2+O(|μ¯|+|u|)3,

where

M11=11-ξ21+θ11θ13θ12ξ2+1+ϕ13ξ2+1θ122-1+θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1+ϕ14ξ2+1θ121+θ11+11-ξ21+θ11θ161+θ112θ12ξ2+1,M12=11-ξ21+θ11θ15ξ2+1-1+θ11θ17θ12ξ2+1+ϕ15ξ2+11+θ11,M13=11-ξ21+θ11θ18θ12ξ2+1+ϕ16ξ2+1.

Now, the map restricted to set c(0,0,0) is described as follows:

G:u-u+k11u2+k12uμ¯+k13u2μ¯+k14uμ¯2+k15u3+O(|u|+|μ¯|)4,

where

k11=ξ2-θ11θ13θ12ξ2+1-ϕ13ξ2+1θ122-ξ2-θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1-ϕ14ξ2+1θ121+θ11+ξ2-θ11θ161+θ112θ12ξ2+1,k12=ξ2-θ11θ15ξ2+1-ξ2-θ11θ17θ12ξ2+1-ϕ15ξ2+11+θ11,k13=ξ2-θ11θ21θ12ξ2+1-ϕ19ξ2+1θ122-ξ2-θ11θ23θ12ξ2+1-ϕ20ξ2+1θ121+θ11+ξ2-θ11θ15M1ξ2+1+ξ2-θ11θ17θ12ξ2+1-ϕ15ξ2+1ξ2-θ11M1+2ξ2-θ11θ13θ12ξ2+1-ϕ13ξ2+1θ122M2+ξ2-θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1-ϕ14ξ2+1θ12ξ2-θ11M2-ξ2-θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1-ϕ14ξ2+1θ12M21+θ11-2ξ2-θ11θ161+θ11ξ2-θ11M2θ12ξ2+1k14=ξ2-θ11θ24θ12ξ2+1-ϕ21ξ2+1θ12-ξ2-θ11θ25θ12ξ2+1-ϕ22ξ2+11+θ11+ξ2-θ11θ15M2ξ2+1+ξ2-θ11θ17θ12ξ2+1-ϕ15ξ2+1ξ2-θ11M2+2ξ2-θ11θ13θ12ξ2+1-ϕ13ξ2+1θ122M3-2ξ2-θ11θ161+θ11ξ2-θ11M3θ12ξ2+1+ξ2-θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1-ϕ14ξ2+1θ12ξ2-θ11M3-ξ2-θ11θ14θ12ξ2+1-ϕ14ξ2+1θ12M31+θ11,k15=ξ2-θ11θ26θ12ξ2+1-ϕ23ξ2+1+ξ2-θ11θ15M3ξ2+1+ξ2-θ11θ17θ12ξ2+1-ϕ15ξ2+1ξ2-θ11M3.

Next, we have the following real numbers:

L11=2f1uμ¯+12Gμ¯2Gu2(0,0)=1+θ11θ17-θ12θ15θ11-ξ2+1+θ11θ12ϕ15θ121+ξ20,L12=122Gu22+163Gu3(0,0)=k112+k150.

Hence, by aforementioned study we have the next conclusive theorem related to the existence of period-doubling bifurcation of system (4) about (S¯,E¯,0).

Theorem 5.1

If L120, then system (4) undergoes period-doubling bifurcation at the isolation free equilibrium (S¯,E¯,0) when parameter μ varies in small neighborhood of μ¯. Furthermore, if L12>0, then the period-two orbits that bifurcate from (S¯,E¯,0) are stable, and if L12<0, then these orbits are unstable.

Neimark–Sacker bifurcation

This section is related to the bifurcation analysis of the system (4) about (S,E,Q). Where all conditions for existence and positivity of (S,E,Q) are given in Lemmas 2.3 and 3.3. Here, we will discuss the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation experienced by system (4) about (S,E,Q) under some mathematical conditions. Bifurcation is the mathematical phenomena produced in any system due to creation of very small change in stability of system. Mathematically, bifurcation arises whenever parameters are varied in very least neighborhood of equilibrium point. Moreover, for further study of bifurcation theory and to understand this surprising behavior of a discrete-time mathematical system one can see [3134]. We deliberate the Neimark–Sacker Bifurcation for positive equilibrium point (S,E,Q) of system (4) by using an obvious criterion for Neimark–Sacker Bifurcation and compelling μ as a bifurcation parameter. Due to appearance of Neimark–Sacker Bifurcation, closed invariant circles are formed. Equally, one can find some lonely orbits of periodic performance alongside with paths that cover the invariant circle tightly. The bifurcation can be supercritical or subcritical causing in a stable or unstable closed invariant curve, correspondingly. In command to study the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation in system (4), we have the next obvious standard of Hopf bifurcation [35]. By means of this standard, one can catch the presence of Neimark–Sacker bifurcation deprived of finding the eigenvalues.

Lemma 6.1

(see [35]) Consider an m-dimensional discrete dynamical system YK+1=gα(YK), where αR is bifurcation parameter. Let Y be a fixed point of gα and the characteristic polynomial for Jacobian matrix J(Y)=(sij)m×m of m-dimensional map gα is given by

Hα(κ)=κm+b1κm-1+b2κm-2+........+bm-1κ+bm 21

where bi=bi(α,s), i=1,2,3,....,m and s is control parameter or another parameter to be determined. Let Δ0±(α,s)=1,Δ1±(α,s),Δ2±(α,s),.....,Δm±(α,s). be the sequence of determinants defined by Δi±(α,s)=det(N1±N2),i=1,2,3,....,m where

N1=1b1b2....bi-101b1....bi-2001....bi-3....................000....1 22
N2=bm-i+1bm-i+2....bm-1bmbm-i+2bm-i+3....bm0bm-i+3bm-i+4....00....................bm00....0. 23

Moreover, the following conditions are satisfied:

C1

Eigenvalue assignment: Δm-1-(α0,s)=0,Δm-1+(α0,s)>0,Hα0(1)>0, (-1)mHα0(-1)>0, Δi±(α0,s)>0,i=m-3,m-5,m-7,....,1 or i=m-3,m-5,m-7,....,2 when m is even or odd, respectively.

C2

Transversality condition: ddα(Δm-1-(α,s))α=α00

C3

Nonresonance condition: cos(2πn)ψ, or resonance condition cos(2πn)=ψ, where n=3,4,5,...., and ψ=-1+0.5Hα0(1)Δm-3-(α0,s)Δm-2+(α0,s). Then, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation exits at α0.

The following result shows that system (4) undergoes Neimark–Sacker bifurcation if we take α as bifurcation parameter.

Theorem 6.1

The unique positive equilibrium point of system (4) undergoes Neimark–Sacker bifurcation if the following conditions hold:

1-A2+A3(A1-A3)=0,1+A2-A3(A1+A3)>0,1+A1+A2+A3>0,1-A1+A2-A3>0.

where, A1,A2 and A3 are given in (13).

Proof

According to Lemma 6.1, for m=3, we have in (14) the characteristic polynomial of system (4) evaluated at its unique positive equilibrium, then we obtain the following equalities and inequalities:

Δ2-(μ)=1-A2+A3(A1-A3)=0,Δ2+(μ)=1+A2-A3(A1+A3)>0,Hμ(1)=1+A1+A2+A3>0,(-1)3Hμ(-1)=1-A1+A2-A3>0.

Remark 6.1

The arithmetical rule for μ at which Neimark–Sacker bifurcation arises can be established by finding the solutions of the equation Δ2-(μ)=0.

Modified hybrid control of Bifurcation and Chaos

Control of bifurcation and chaos in mathematical models is considered as a key element for population models mainly when these models are associated with biological interactions and breeding of different species. Generally discrete-time mathematical systems are more complex to analyze as compared to continuous one. It is necessary that the population does not experience any irregular situation. Hence, to avoid these irregularities a chaos controlling technique must be implemented. In this part of manuscript, we study a feedback control strategy with parameter perturbation to move unstable and irregular trajectories toward the stable trajectories. The most useful and well-known method in the field of chaos is given by Ott et al. [36] to control period-doubling bifurcation, which is known as OGY method. Latter on, numerous strategic control methods are developed (see [22, 37]). Here, we present a modified hybrid control method to control the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation and chaos. Furthermore, this mathematical method is well applicable to every discrete-time system experiencing the period-doubling bifurcation and chaos. Originally, hybrid method was proposed by Liu et al. [27]. Moreover, it was developed to control the period-doubling bifurcation (see [2630]). Here, we have used the modified hybrid control technique [22] to control Neimark–Sacker bifurcation. Moreover, this technique is much better then old techniques of control. Consider the following n-dimensional discrete dynamical system:

Zn+1=g(Zn,) 24

with ZnRn, nZ. Suppose R is parameter for which system (24) experiences the bifurcation. The purpose of proposing the modified technique for controlling the bifurcation is to regain the maximum range of stable region in (24) by reduction in length of unstable region. Hence, we present the following generalized hybrid control technique by applying state feedback along with parameter perturbation;

Zn+k=θ3g(ħ)(Zn,)+(1-θ3)Zn 25

where ħ>0 is in Z and 0<θ<1 is parameter for controlling the bifurcation appearing in (25). In addition, g(ħ) is kth iterative value of g(.). By application of (25) on system (4), we get the following system;

Sn+1=θ3SneB-β1En-β2Ena+Sn-β4Qnb+Sn-μSn+(1-θ3)Sn,En+1=θ3Eneβ1Sn+β2Sna+Sn-β3Qnd+En-μ+(1-θ3)En,Qn+1=θ3Qnec1β3End+En+c2β4Snb+Sn-μ+(1-θ3)Qn 26

Furthermore, the system (26) and system (4) have same constant solutions. Additionally, the Jacobian matrix of (26) about (S,E,Q) is given as follows:

1+θ3Sμ-β2ea+S2-β4Qb+S2-θ3Sβ1+β2a+S-θ3β4Sb+Sθ3Eaβ2+β1a+S2a+S21-θ3+θ3d+E2+β3EQd+E2-θ3β3Ed+E-bθ3c2β4Qb+S2dθ3c1β3Qd+e21. 27

The one and only positive equilibrium point (S,E,Q) of the controlled system (26) is locally asymptotically stable, if all solutions of the characteristic polynomial of (27) lie inside D1. Where D1 is an open unit disk.

Numerical simulation

In this part of article, the numerical analysis for the dynamics of (4) is provide. Moreover, this study is the direct verification of our theoretical analysis and analytic results which we proved in previous sections.

Example 8.1

Assume that a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 and B>0. Then, the discrete-time mathematical system (4) takes the following form:

Sn+1=SneB-0.99En-0.01En2+Sn-0.60Qn10+Sn-μSn,En+1=Ene0.99Sn+0.01Sn2+Sn-0.80Qn0.4+En-μ,Qn+1=Qne0.80En0.4+En+2(0.60S)n10+Sn-μ, 28

where μ>0 and S0=0.91059,E0=0.38854,Q0=0.3549 are initial conditions. In this case, the graphical behavior of both population variables is shown in (Fig. 4). In (Fig. 4c), maximum Lyapunov exponents for the existence of bifurcation are given. In (Fig. 5), some phase portraits are given for variations of μ>0. Hence, it can be easily seen that there exists the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation for large range of bifurcation parameter μ. For aforementioned values of parameters, one can obtain the Jacobian matrix FJ3 as follows:

FJ3=1+0.91059(0.0021294-μ)-0.904613-0.05007560.2863361.1728-0.335248-0.03577590.2395511.

Moreover, the characteristic equation H(ψ)=0 for FJ3 has the following coefficients:

A1=3.17946-0.91059μ,A2=3.68735-1.97853μ,A3=1.58237-1.1377μ.

Moreover, the equilibrium point (S,E,Q) will be locally asymptotically stable for

0.37858611389735736<μ<1.0675487017977925.

In addition, the one and only positive equilibrium point (S,E,Q) experiences the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation whenever

1.0675487017977952<μ<2.3456458284152606.

Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

Existence of Neimark–Sacker bifurcation in system (4) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , B>0,μ>0 and S0=0.91059,E0=0.38854,Q0=0.3549

Fig. 5.

Fig. 5

Phase portraits of system (4) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , B>0,μ>0 and S0=0.91059,E0=0.38854,Q0=0.3549

Example 8.2

Assume that a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01, B>μ and Qn0,n. Then, the discrete-time mathematical system (4) takes the following form:

Sn+1=SneB-0.99En-0.01En2+Sn-μSn,En+1=Ene0.99Sn+0.01Sn2+Sn-μ 29

where S0=1.4391059,E0=1.138854 are initial conditions. In this case, the graphical behavior of population variables Sn and En is, respectively, shown in Fig. 6a and b. It is clearly seen that in the absence of isolated compartment the system (4) experiences the chaos for higher values of death parameter. In addition, the isolation-free equilibrium point (S¯,E¯,0) experiences the period-doubling bifurcation whenever we have

1.26997017977952<μ<1.9887756458284152.

Fig. 6.

Fig. 6

Existence of period-doubling bifurcation in system (4) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01, B>μ and Qn0,n and S0=1.4391059,E0=1.138854

Example 8.3

Assume that a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2, B>0 and μ>0 with initial conditions S0=1.35,E0=0.31,Q0=0.75 in system (4). Then, in this case the graphical behavior of susceptible population is shown in (Fig. 7). Furthermore, it can be seen that the system (4) undergoes period-doubling bifurcation for higher values of μ (see Fig. 7a). Additionally, the existence of chaos for susceptible population can be seen from (Fig. 7b).

Fig. 7.

Fig. 7

Period-doubling bifurcation and chaos in system (4) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , B>0,μ>0 and S0=1.35,E0=0.31,Q0=0.75

Example 8.4

Assume that a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 and B>0. Then, the discrete-time mathematical system (26) takes the following form:

Sn+1=θ3SneB-0.99En-0.01En2+Sn-0.60Qn10+Sn-μSn+(1-θ3)Sn,En+1=θ3Ene0.99Sn+0.01Sn2+Sn-0.80Qn0.4+En-μ+(1-θ3)En,Qn+1=θ3Qne0.80En0.4+En+2(0.60S)n10+Sn-μ+(1-θ3)Qn, 30

where μ>0 ,S0=0.91059,E0=0.38854,Q0=0.3549 and θ[0,1]. In this case, the graphical behavior of both population variables is shown in (Fig. 8). Hence, it can be easily seen that the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation has been controlled for large range of control parameter θ.

Fig. 8.

Fig. 8

Control diagrams for Neimark–Sacker bifurcation in system (26) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , B>0,μ>0 and S0=0.91059,E0=0.38854,Q0=0.3549

Example 8.5

Assume that a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 and B>0 in system (26). Then, for μ>0 with initial conditions S0=1.35,E0=0.31, and Q0=0.75 the graphical behavior of susceptible population is shown in (Fig. 9). Hence, it can be easily seen that the period-doubling bifurcation is controlled for large range of control parameter θ. Additionally, from (Fig. 9b) it can be seen that the chaos in system (26) has been controlled effectively large range of control parameter θ.

Fig. 9.

Fig. 9

Control diagrams for period-doubling bifurcation and chaos in system (26) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , B>0,μ>0 and S0=1.35,E0=0.31,Q0=0.75

Example 8.6

Assume that a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 and B>0. Then, the continuous-time mathematical system (1) takes the following form:

dSdt=BS-0.99SE-0.01SE2+S-0.60SQ10+S-μS2,dEdt=0.99SE+0.01SE2+S-0.80EQ0.4+E-μE,dQdt=1(0.80)QE0.4+E+2(0.60)SQ10+S-μQ. 31

From (Fig. 11) it can be seen that the system (31) is stable whenever the death rate μ1. Furthermore, in (Fig. 10) the stable behavior of each population variable, namely, S, E and Q is represented in (Fig. 10a–c), respectively. In (Fig. 10), some stable phase portraits are given. Moreover, the system (31) will remain unstable whenever the death parameter μ is taken as μ>1.

Fig. 11.

Fig. 11

Three-dimensional phase portraits for system (31) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , B>0,μ>0 and S0=1.35,E0=0.31,Q0=0.75

Fig. 10.

Fig. 10

Two-dimensional plots and phase portraits for system (31) for a=2,b=10,β1=0.99,d=0.4,β2=0.01,β3=0.80,β4=0.60,c1=1,c2=2 , B>0,μ>0 and S0=1.35,E0=0.31,Q0=0.75

Concluding remarks

We study the qualitative behavior of a discrete-time mathematical model for the population suffering from hypertension or diabetes exposed to COVID-19. The continuous-time counterpart of our model was modeled and analyzed in [1] with Z-control. In our study, we discretize the model by using piecewise constant arguments and provides a better graphical and theoretical analysis of model. In addition, in this paper, we considered the reported cases from the early stages of pandemic to the number of cases in the start of year 2020 in country India [1]. Firstly, by assuming the condition that exposed population(E) will remain finite, the boundedness of every positive solution of system (4) is discussed and an explicit lemma for the boundedness of every positive solution of system (4) is provided in Sect. 2. It is shown that there exist six equilibria for system (4). The stability of system (4) is discussed about each of its equilibrium point. Additionally, we have evaluated some mathematical results concerned to existence of one and only positive equilibrium point and some conditions are developed for local asymptotic stability of positive equilibrium point. It is shown that in the absence of quarantined compartment, the system (4) undergoes period-doubling bifurcation and chaos (see Sect. 9). In order to show the complexity in system (4), the existence of Neimark–Sacker bifurcation for one and only positive equilibrium point is proved mathematically. Through numerical study, we show that system (4) undergoes Neimark–Sacker for wide range of bifurcation parameter μ. Moreover, it is shown that for discrete-time mathematical system (4) and its continuous counterpart (1), if we take death parameter μ1, then both systems are stable and for μ>1 these systems are unstable. A stability comparison of continuous-time mathematical (1) system with its discrete counterpart (4) for death parameter μ is given in Examples 8.1 and 8.6. It is easy to see that our discrete-time mathematical system undergoes chaos when an individual exposed to COVID-19 does not quarantined himself, that is, for Qn0,n, the system (4) must be chaotic but for system (1) if Q(t)0, then system (1) reduces to a two-dimensional continuous-time system, in which chaos is ceased to exist (see [38, 39]). Thus, our discrete-time mathematical system (4) will remain bounded whenever E is finite and (4) become unbounded when E is unbounded. In addition, an individual which is exposed to COVID-19 must have to quarantine himself such that the system (4) remains stable.

Acknowledgements

José Francisco Gómez Aguilar acknowledges the support provided by CONACyT: Cátedras CONACyT para Jóvenes investigadores 2014 and SNI-CONACyT.

Data Availability Statement

This manuscript has no associated data.

Contributor Information

Muhammad Salman Khan, Email: mskhan@math.qau.edu.pk.

Maria samreen, Email: maria.samreen@hotmail.com.

Muhammad Ozair, Email: ozairmuhammad@gmail.com.

Takasar Hussain, Email: htakasarnust@gmail.com.

J. F. Gómez-Aguilar, Email: jose.ga@cenidet.tecnm.mx

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Associated Data

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Data Availability Statement

This manuscript has no associated data.


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