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. 2021 Sep 25;37:100501. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100501

Table 1.

Summary of AICc (for training data), RMSE (for test data) and RC values for different models calculated based on the epidemic data of Shanghai. Note the negative AICc values result from the fact that data points are fewer than the free model parameters.

Shanghai
Early stage
Middle stage
Late stage
Model AICc RMSE RC AICc RMSE RC AICc RMSE RC
Hill’s 5.2 31 0.47 4.4 33 0.85 4.3 6.2 0.97
Logistic 4.4 120 0.68 4.2 10 0.96 4.3 4.7 0.99
Gompertz’s 3.9 25 0.37 4.2 34 0.92 4.6 6.2 0.98
Richards’ 4.9 65 0.73 4.0 7.8 0.92 3.7 2.8 0.99
G-Logistic 4.5 448 0.01 4.0 5.4 0.85 3.8 2.8 0.97

Exp.Growth 3.8 112 0.53 6.7 85 0.84 8.6 68 0.88
Max.LLH 4.1 61 0.21 7.5 268 0.11 9.0 101 1.0e−3
Seq.Bayes. 4.0 78 1.4e−4 5.1 13.3 0.39 6.6 16 0.71
Time Dep. 4.2 148 0.48 4.1 11.9 0.72 6.0 11 0.81

SIR 3.5 3.2e3 0.17 6.4 281 0.02 7.6 43 0.04
SEIR 3.5 1.1e4 0.76 6.2 184 0.11 7.2 35 0.60
SEIR-QD 8.9 5.1e3 1.2e−4 4.7 16 0.44 5.1 6.0 0.69
SEIR-AHQ −3.6 1.0e4 1.7e−5 10 84 2.8e−3 7.9 17 0.15
SEIR-PO −17.8 7.2e3 6.9e−5 5.8 8.2 0.14 4.9 3.6 0.83