SARS-CoV-2 infectivity correlates with high viral loads and detection of viral antigen and is terminated by seroconversion

Abstract

Background

From a public health perspective, effective containment strategies for SARS-CoV-2 should be balanced with individual liberties.

Methods

We collected 79 respiratory samples from 59 patients monitored in an outpatient center or in the intensive care unit of the University Hospital Regensburg. We analyzed viral load by quantitative real-time PCR, viral antigen by point-of-care assay, time since onset of symptoms and presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the context of virus isolation from respiratory specimen.

Results

The odds ratio for virus isolation increased 1.9-fold for each log₁₀ level of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and 7.4-fold with detection of viral antigen, while it decreased 6.3-fold beyond 10 days of symptoms and 20.0-fold with presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The latter was confirmed for B.1.1.7 strains. The positive predictive value for virus isolation was 60.0% for viral loads above 10 ⁷ RNA copies/mL and 50.0% for the presence of viral antigen. Symptom onset before 10 days and seroconversion predicted lack of infectivity with 93.8% and 96.0%.

Conclusions

Our data support quarantining patients with high viral load and detection of viral antigen, and lifting restrictive measures with increasing time to symptom onset and seroconversion. Delay of antibody formation may prolong infectivity.