Table 3.
Estimated outcomes of lung cancer screening under different eligibility strategies for current and former smokers aged 55–79 in fifteen state capital cities in Brazil.
| Outcomes | Screening strategies |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All ever-smokers | Pack-years§ | Fixed risk threshold (1.2%)† | Age-specific risk thresholds* | |
| Number of eligible individuals | 2,353,698 (2,309,301–2,398,095) | 512,247 (477,315–547,180) | 519,226 (490,411–548,040) | 515,089 (485,524–544,655) |
| Percentage of eligible individuals | 100 | 21.8 | 22.1 | 21.9 |
| Lung cancer deaths in the absence of screening | 21,459 (20,532–22,387) | 12,254 (11,364–13,144) | 14,408 (13,486–15,330) | 12,886 (11,998–13,775) |
| Number of preventable lung cancer deaths eligible | 4,378 (4,189–4,567) | 2,500 (2,318–2,681) | 2,939 (2,751–3,127) | 2,629 (2,448–2,810) |
| Percentage of preventable lung cancer deaths eligible | 100 | 57.1 | 67.1 | 60.1 |
| NNS to prevent 1 lung cancer death | 538 (517–559) | 205 (194–216) | 177 (170–183) | 196 (187–205) |
| Mean 5-year lung cancer death risk | 0.91 (0.88–0.95) | 2.39 (2.26–2.53) | 2.77 (2.68–2.87) | 2.5 (2.39–2.61) |
| Mean age among screening-eligible individuals | 63.6 (63.5–63.8) | 63.4 (63–63.9) | 67.8 (67.5–68.2) | 63.8 (63.4–64.2) |
§
55–79 years-old, at least 30 pack-years smoked, and less than 15 years since quitting.
†
Eligibility by the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT) with a single threshold of 1.2% 5-year risk.
⁎
Eligibility by the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT) with 5-year risk thresholds defined individually by age group to select the same number of individuals as the pack-years strategy (see Table 4).