Fig. 2.

Modeled daily incidence of severe cases and cumulative infection counts in Montserrado County for assumptions of (A,C) 19% severity among symptomatic cases and (B,D) 15% severity among symptomatic cases. The blue line represents the median of all curves selected via the Bayesian melding approach, conducted separately for each assumption of severity percentage. Gray curves represent 100 random draws from parameter sets selected via Bayesian melding. Black dots represent data points (daily reported cases or cumulative reported cases at weekly intervals) per reports of confirmed cases from the National Public Health Institute of Liberia.