Table 2:
Results for the interventional autoregressive integrated moving average model summarizing the association of the COVID-19 pandemic and monthly age-standardized incidence rates for new pediatric cancer diagnoses per million population
| Parameter | ARIMA (p d q)(P D Q)12* | Level shift intervention† | Trend change intervention‡ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Estimate of β (95% CI) | p value | Estimate of β (95% CI) | p value | ||
| Cancer type | |||||
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| |||||
| All cancers combined | (1 0 0)(0 0 0)¶** | 4.98 (−15.1 to 25.04) | 0.6 | −2.09 (−5.63 to 1.44) | 0.25 |
|
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| Leukemia and lymphoma | (1 0 0)(0 0 0) | 10.27 (−0.72 to 23.25) | 0.1 | −1.00 (−3.27 to 1.27) | 0.4 |
|
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| CNS tumour | (0 0 0)(0 1 1)¶** | −5.11 (−11.7 to 1.45) | 0.1 | NA‡ | – |
|
| |||||
| Extracranial solid tumour | (0 0 0)(0 1 1)¶** | −1.33 (−11.4 to 8.73) | 0.8 | NA | – |
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| Geographic region | |||||
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| |||||
| Atlantic§ | (1 0 1)(0 0 0) | 11.98 (0.38.3 to 62.22) | 0.6 | NA | – |
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| Quebec | (1 0 1)(0 0 0) | −16.0 (−51.1 to 19.12) | 0.4 | NA | – |
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| Ontario | (2 0 0)(0 0 0) | −7.09 (−32.6 to 18.42) | 0.6 | NA | 0.7 |
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| Prairies¶ | (0 1 1)(0 1 1) | −38.7 (−126.0 to 48.41) | 0.4 | NA | – |
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| British Columbia | (0 0 0)(0 0 0) | 25.22 (−3.01 to 53.45) | 0.09 | NA | – |
Note: ARIMA = autoregressive integrated moving average, ASIR = age-standardized incidence rate, CI = confidence interval, CNS = central nervous system, NA = not applicable.
For methodological considerations regarding ARIMA models, see Appendix 1, Supplement 2, available at www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.210659/tab-related-content.
The level change measures an immediate change after the onset of the pandemic.
The trend (slope) change measures a progressive increase or decrease in ASIRs in the pandemic period compared with the hypothetical continuations of the trends from the baseline period of March 2016 to February 2020.
Includes Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and New Brunswick.
Includes Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Indicates that the trend change variable was not selected in the final model.