Skip to main content
NCBI home page
Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2021 Dec 11;56(6):330–335. doi: 10.1007/s10272-021-1012-7

Europe’s Climate Target for 2050: An Assessment

Richard S J Tol 1,✉
PMCID: PMC8664673  PMID: 34924594

Abstract

Decarbonisation is harder for transport, heating, industry and agriculture. That is, a doubling of the decarbonisation rate requires much more than a doubling of the policy effort. The low-hanging fruit has been picked.

Footnotes

Richard S. J. Tol, University of Sussex, Falmer, UK; and Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

References

  1. Anthoff D, Tol R S J. The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon: A decomposition analysis using FUND. Climatic Change. 2013;117(3):515–530. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0706-7. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  2. Arent, D., R. S. J. Tol, E. Faust, J. P. Hella, S. Kumar, K. M. Strzepek, F. L. Toth and D. Yan (2014), Key economic sectors and services, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 659–708.
  3. Babiker M, Metcalf G, Reilly J. Tax distortions and global climate policy. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 2003;46(2):269–287. doi: 10.1016/S0095-0696(02)00039-6. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  4. Barker, T., I. Bashmakov, A. Alharthi, M. Amann, L. Cifuentes, J. Drexhage, M. Duan, O. Edenhofer, B. P. Flannery, M. J. Grubb, M. Hoogwijk, F. I. Ibitoye, C. J. Jepma, W. A. Pizer and K. Yamaji (2007), Mitigation from a Cross-Sectoral Perspective, in Climate Change 2007 — Mitigation of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 619–690.
  5. Barrage L. Optimal Dynamic Carbon Taxes in a Climate-Economy Model with Distortionary Fiscal Policy. The Review of Economic Studies. 2020;87(1):1–39. [Google Scholar]
  6. Baumol, W. J. and W. G. Bowen (1966), Performing Arts, The Economic Dilemma: a study of problems common to theater, opera, music, and dance, Twentieth Century Fund.
  7. Baumol W J, Oates W E. The use of standards and prices for the protection of the environment. Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 1971;73(1):42–54. [Google Scholar]
  8. Boehringer C, Rosendahl K. Green promotes the dirtiest: On the interaction between black and green quotas in energy markets. Journal of Regulatory Economics. 2010;37(3):316–325. doi: 10.1007/s11149-010-9116-1. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  9. Boehringer C, Koschel H, Moslener U. Efficiency losses from overlapping regulation of eu carbon emissions. Journal of Regulatory Economics. 2008;33(3):299–317. doi: 10.1007/s11149-007-9054-8. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  10. Boehringer C, Rutherford T F, Tol R S J. The EU 20/20/2020 targets: An overview of the EMF22 assessment. Energy Economics. 2009;31(S2):S268–S273. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.10.010. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  11. Bovenberg A L, Goulder L H. Optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes: Generalequilibrium analyses. American Economic Review. 1996;86(4):985–1000. [Google Scholar]
  12. Brouwer R. Environmental value transfer: State of the art and future prospects. Ecological Economics. 2000;32(1):137–152. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00070-1. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  13. Buchanan J M. External diseconomies, corrective taxes, and market structure. The American Economic Review. 1969;59(1):174–177. [Google Scholar]
  14. Clarke L, Edmonds J, Krey V, Richels R, Rose S, Tavoni M. International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 international scenarios. Energy Economics. 2009;31(S2):S64–S81. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.10.013. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  15. Clarke, L., K. Jiang, K. Akimoto, M. H. Babiker, G. J. Blanford, K. A. Fisher-Vanden, J. C. Hourcade, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, A. Loeschel, D. W. McCollum, S. Paltsev, S. Rose, P. R. Shukla, M. Tavoni, D. van Vuuren and B. Van Der Zwaan (2014), Assessing Transformation Pathways, Cambridge University Press.
  16. Davis S J, Caldeira K, Matthews H D. Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure. Science. 2010;329(5997):1330–1333. doi: 10.1126/science.1188566. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. Dell M, Jones B F, Olken B A. What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. Journal of Economic Literature. 2014;52(3):740–798. doi: 10.1257/jel.52.3.740. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  18. Dowlatabadi H. Bumping against a gas ceiling. Climatic Change. 2000;46(3):391–407. doi: 10.1023/A:1005611713386. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  19. European Commission (2014), Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects Economic appraisal tool for Cohesion Policy 2014–2020.
  20. European Commission (2018), in-depth analysis in support of the commission Communication COM(2018)773, A Clean Planet for all: A European long-term strategic vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy.
  21. European Commission (2020), 2030 Climate Target Plan, https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12265-2030-Climate-Target-Plan_en (25 November 2021).
  22. Eurostat (2021), Shedding light on energy in the EU, What is the source of the electricity we consume, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-3a.html?lang=en&lang=en (25 November 2021).
  23. Fowlie M, Greenstone M, Wolfram C. Do energy efficiency investments deliver? Evidence from the weatherization assistance program. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2018;133(3):1597–1644. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjy005. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  24. House K, Baclig A, Ranjan M, Van Nierop E, Wilcox J, Herzog H. Economic and energetic analysis of capturing CO2 from ambient air. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2011;108(51):20428–20433. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1012253108. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  25. Leahy E, Tol R S J. Greener homes: an ex-post estimate of the cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction using administrative micro-data from the Republic of Ireland. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies. 2012;14(3):219–239. doi: 10.1007/s10018-012-0034-6. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  26. Lin B, Wesseh P K. On the economics of carbon pricing: Insights from econometric modeling with industry-level data. Energy Economics. 2020;86(C):2020. [Google Scholar]
  27. Nordhaus W D. How fast should we graze the global commons? American Economic Review. 1982;72(2):242–246. [Google Scholar]
  28. Ou Y, Iyer G, Clarke L, Edmonds J, Fawcett A A, Hultman N, McFarland J R, Binsted M, Cui R, Fyson C, Geiges A, Gonzales-Zuñiga S, Gidden M J, Höhne N, Jeffery L, Kuramochi T, Lewis J, Meinshausen M, Nicholls Z, Patel P, Ragnauth S, Rogelj J, Waldhoff S, Yu S, McJeon H. Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C? Science. 2021;374(6568):693–695. doi: 10.1126/science.abl8976. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  29. Pareto, V. (1906), Manuale di economia politica con una introduzione alla scienza sociale, Socief’a Editrice Libraria.
  30. Parry I W H, Small K A. Does Britain or the United States have the right gasoline tax? American Economic Review. 2005;95(4):1276–1289. doi: 10.1257/0002828054825510. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  31. Patuelli R, Nijkamp P, Pels E. Environmental tax reform and the double dividend: A meta-analytical performance assessment. Ecological Economics. 2005;55(4):564–583. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.12.021. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  32. Pearce D W. Does European Union Environmental Policy Pass a Cost-Benefit Test? World Economics. 2004;5(3):115–137. [Google Scholar]
  33. Pigou, A. (1920), The Economics of Welfare, Macmillan.
  34. Proost S, Van Dender K. The welfare impacts of alternative policies to address atmospheric pollution in urban road transport. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2001;31(4):383–411. doi: 10.1016/S0166-0462(00)00079-X. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  35. Ruebbelke D. An analysis of differing abatement incentives. Resource and Energy Economics. 2003;25(3):269–294. doi: 10.1016/S0928-7655(03)00032-0. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  36. Runst, P. and A. Thonipara (2020), Dosis facit effectum: why the size of the carbon tax matters — Evidence from the Swedish residential sector, Energy Economics, 91(C).
  37. Simon, F. (2020, 23 March), EU cost-benefit study seen backing 55% emissions cut by 2030, Euractiv.
  38. Taconet N, Guivarch C, Pottier A. Social cost of carbon under stochastic tipping points. Environmental & Resource Economics. 2021;78:709–737. doi: 10.1007/s10640-021-00549-x. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  39. Tol R S J. Europe’s long-term climate target: A critical evaluation. Energy Policy. 2007;35(1):424–432. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.12.003. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  40. Tol R S J. A cost-benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package. Energy Policy. 2012;49(C):288–295. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.018. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  41. Tol R S J. A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country. Energy Economics. 2019;83:555–566. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.07.006. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  42. Tol R S J. Ambiguity reduction by objective model selection, with an application to the costs of the EU 2030 climate targets. Energies. 2014;7(11):6886–6896. doi: 10.3390/en7116886. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  43. Tol R S J. The economic impacts of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 2018;12(1):4–25. doi: 10.1093/reep/rex027. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  44. Tol, R. S. J. (2020a), Energy and climate, in Routledge Handbook of Energy Economics, Routledge, 153–178.
  45. Tol R S J. Selfish Bureaucrats And Policy Heterogeneity In Nordhaus’ Dice. Climate Change Economics (CCE) 2020;11(04):1–16. [Google Scholar]
  46. Tol, R. S. J. (2021), Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time, Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org.
  47. Tong D, Zhang Q, Zheng Y, Caldeira K, Shearer C, Hong C, Qin Y, Davis S. Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target. Nature. 2019;572(7769):373–377. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1364-3. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  48. Webster M, Sue Wing I, Jakobovits L. Second-best instruments for near-term climate policy: Intensity targets vs. the safety valve. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 2010;59(3):250–259. doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2010.01.002. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  49. Weyant J P. Costs of reducing global carbon emissions. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1993;7(4):27–46. doi: 10.1257/jep.7.4.27. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  50. Wise M, Calvin K, Thomson A, Clarke L, Bond-Lamberty B, Sands R, Smith S, Janetos A, Edmonds J. Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science. 2009;324(5931):1183–1186. doi: 10.1126/science.1168475. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Inter Economics are provided here courtesy of Nature Publishing Group

RESOURCES