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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Dec 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Surg Res. 2021 Jul 16;268:17–24. doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2021.06.042

The Short and the Long of it: Timing of Mortality for Older Adults in a State Trauma System

Elinore J Kaufman 1, Alexis Zebrowski 2, Daniel N Holena 3, Phillipe Loher 4, Douglas J Wiebe 5, Brendan G Carr 6
PMCID: PMC8678148  NIHMSID: NIHMS1725474  PMID: 34280661

Abstract

Introduction:

The impact of injury extends beyond the hospital stay, but trauma center performance metrics typically focus on in-hospital mortality. We compared risk adjusted rates of in-hospital and long-term mortality among Pennsylvania trauma centers. We hypothesized that centers with low rates of in-hospital mortality would also have low rates of long-term mortality.

Methods:

We identified injured patients (age ≥ 65) admitted to Pennsylvania trauma centers in 2013 and 2014 using the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study, a robust, state-wide trauma registry. We matched trauma registry records to Medicare claims from the years 2013–2015. Matching variables included admission date and patient demographics including date of birth, zip, sex, and race/ethnicity. Outcomes examined were inpatient, 30-day, and 1-year mortality. Multivariable logistic regression models including presenting physiology, comorbidities, injury characteristics, and demographics were developed to calculate expected mortality rates for each trauma center at each time point. Trauma center performance was assessed using observed-to-expected ratios and ranking for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality.

Results:

Of the 15,451 patients treated at 28 centers, 8.1% died before discharge or were discharged to hospice. Another 3.4% died within 30 days, and another 14.7% died within one year of injury. Of patients who survived hospitalization but died within 30 days, 92.5% were injured due to fall, and 75.0% sustained head injuries. Survival at one year was higher in patients discharged home (88.4%), compared to those discharged to a skilled nursing facility or long-term acute care hospital (72.7% and 52.6%, respectively). Three centers were identified as outliers (two low and one high) for in-hospital mortality, none of which were outliers when the horizon was stretched to 30 days from injury. At 30 days, two different low and two different high outliers were found.

Conclusion:

Nearly one-in-three injured older adults who die within 30 days of injury dies after hospital discharge. Hospital rankings for in-hospital mortality correlate poorly with long-term outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of looking beyond survival to discharge for quality improvement and benchmarking.

Keywords: trauma systems, long-term outcomes

Introduction

Mortality after trauma has traditionally been described with a trimodal distribution: an immediate peak at the scene of injury, a second peak of deaths occurring within 24 hours among patients who survive to hospital care but succumb to their injuries, and a third peak occurring days to weeks later as a result of injury complications or organ failure.1 Major trauma patients have higher rates of death up to 3 years after discharge.2 Organized trauma systems have been shown to flatten this third peak by reducing late deaths, likely through a combination of direct care of injuries and prevention and management of complications after injury.3,4 Despite the importance of late mortality, research and performance improvement efforts in trauma have typically focused on inpatient morbidity and mortality, and much less is known about outcomes after discharge, including residual late deaths.5

As the population of the United States ages, older adults make up a growing proportion of trauma patients, with individuals age ≥ 65 now accounting for one-in-three admissions to U.S. trauma centers.6 Designated trauma centers operating within organized trauma systems have been shown to reduce death rates up to 1 year after major trauma, including among older adults,7,8 and geriatric trauma care is a major focus of performance improvement efforts at U.S. trauma centers.6,9,10

Rates of death after discharge vary according to population and study design, but are higher among older adults.11 Including all degrees of injury severity and all hospital types, Clark et al. found a 3.7% rate of inpatient mortality among Medicare patients age ≥ 65, which more than doubled to 7.5% by 30 days.12 This stands in contrast to findings of the National Study on Costs and Outcomes of Trauma, in which an initial mortality rate of 21.3% in severely injured patients, more than half of whom are < 55 years old, increased by less than 5% at one year.13

Incorporating longer-term outcomes could open new avenues for performance improvement, particularly with regard to post-discharge care. While 30-day mortality has been recommended as a key outcome after trauma,14 fragmentation of care and data inaccessibility make post-discharge data collection rare.3 To our knowledge, death after hospital discharge has not been incorporated into trauma center benchmarking efforts. To assess long-term mortality after injury we linked data from a state-wide trauma registry to Medicare claims for injured older adults. We compared risk adjusted rates of in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year mortality among Pennsylvania trauma centers with the hypothesis that centers with low rates of in-hospital mortality would also have low rates of long-term mortality.

Methods

Data sources and population

We identified injured patients with age ≥ 65 admitted to Pennsylvania trauma centers from January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2014 using the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study (PTOS). PTOS is a robust state-wide trauma registry collected prospectively by trained registrars at every Pennsylvania trauma center and monitored by the Pennsylvania Trauma System Foundation, Mechanicsburg, PA. The foundation specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses, interpretations, or conclusions. These years were selected due to availability of corresponding Medicare claims data. We linked trauma registry records to Medicare claims using the following matched variables: sex, residential zip code, day of birth, month of birth, year of birth, day of admission, month of admission, year of admission, and race/ethnicity. Because each data source provided only a generic hospital identification number, we first matched facilities by comparing all patient records from one facility to another. After facility matching was complete, patients were matched 1:1 within each facility using the same matching attributes listed above. Matches were discarded if more than one attribute did not match or if there was another patient pair that matched the same or better. This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Thomas Jefferson University and a waiver of informed consent was granted.

Inclusion and exclusion criteria

Patients were excluded if they had transfer out listed as their disposition from the trauma center in the PTOS database, as their inpatient outcomes could not be determined. There were 159 transfers out that were excluded. Centers were excluded if they treated fewer than 50 otherwise-eligible patients, resulting in the exclusion of 24 patients. One patient who was listed as dead in PTOS but not Medicare was excluded. Patients listed as discharged to hospice were included as inpatient mortality.

Analysis

Outcomes were inpatient, 30-day, and 1-year mortality. Patient demographics, comorbidities, injury mechanism, type, and severity, and presenting physiology were tabulated. Dates of death were collected from Medicare claims, which are successfully validated against social security administration records in > 98% of cases.15 We used a validated, multivariable logistic regression model to calculate expected mortality rates for each trauma center at each time point. Models included presenting physiology, comorbidities, injury characteristics, and demographics.16 The model for 30-day mortality included in-hospital deaths, to mirror what would occur if 30-day mortality were to be used as a trauma center benchmarking outcome. Center performance was assessed using observed-to-expected (O:E) ratios displayed as caterpillar plots. O:E ratios sum the actual number of deaths for patients treated at hospital and divide them by the summed total of the expected number of deaths for those patients (based on the predicted probabilities estimated for each patient from the multi-variable model described above). Centers were considered low outliers if the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the O:E ratio was < 1 and high outliers if the lower bound was > 1.

Results

Matches were found for 16,446 of 29,063 PTOS patients (56.7%), Of these, 15,451 (93.9%) were treated at 28 centers and met inclusion criteria. Mortality rates were equivalent in matched and unmatched patients, but more matched than unmatched patients were female (61.1% vs. 53.6%, p < 0.001), white (93.8 vs. 89.4%, p < 0.001), and injured in a fall (83.6 vs. 74.9%, p < 0.001). Matched patients were slightly older (median age 74 vs. 71, p < 0.001). For centers treating ≥ 100 eligible patients, match rates ranged from 35.0 to 68.6%.

Timing of Mortality

Of 15,451 included patients, 1,256 (8.1%) died before discharge or were discharged to hospice. Another 520 (3.4%) were discharged alive, but died within 30 days, and 2,264 (14.7%) died after discharge, between 30 days and one year after injury, for a cumulative incidence of mortality of 26.1% within one year. In other words, 29.3% of patients who died within 30 days died after hospital discharge, and 68.9% of those who died within one year of injury died after hospital discharge. There were 8 patients who died in the hospital with stays longer than 30 days. Patients recorded as discharged to hospice were considered as inpatient deaths for the purposes of this analysis. Of these 333 discharged patients (2.2%), median time to death was 9 days (IQR 6–14), with 35 (10.5%) surviving more than 30 days and 6 (1.8%) surviving more than a year. Timing of mortality is shown in Table 1.

Table 1:

Timing of Mortality by Trauma Center Discharge Destination

Died < 30 days Died < 1 year Alive at 1 year
Home/routine discharge (N=4,636) 86 (1.9) 454 (9.8) 4,096 (88.4)
Long-term acute care hospital (N=209) 13 (6.2) 86 (41.2) 110 (52.6)
Rehabilitation facility (N=3,126) 58 (1.8) 385 (12.3) 2,684 (85.9)
Skilled nursing facility (N=6,222) 362 (5.8) 1,339 (21.5) 4,521 (72.7)

Overall, 83.4% of injuries were due to falls. This proportion was 92.5% of those who survived their initial hospitalization but died within 30 days, and 92.2% of those who died within one year. Seventy-five percent of patients who survived to discharge but died within 30 days had head injuries, compared to 46.3% overall. Of the 4,636 (30.0%) patients who were discharged home, 88.4% were alive at 1 year, as were 85.0% discharged to rehabilitation. By contrast, just 52.6% of patients discharged to a long-term acute care hospital, and 72.7% of those discharged to a skilled nursing facility were alive at 1 year. Patient characteristics are shown in Table 2.

Table 2:

Patient Characteristics by Timing of Mortality

Death in hospital Death after discharge, within 30 days of injury Death after 30 days, within 1 year of injury Alive at 1 year Total

Male 677 (11.3) 236 (3.9) 951 (15.8) 4,128 (68.8) 6,002 (38.9)

Female 579 (6.1) 284 (3.0) 1,313 (13.9) 7,273 (77.0) 9,449 (61.2)

Age 84 (78–89) 86 (81–91) 85 (79–90) 80 (73–86) 82 (74–87)

Systolic blood pressure 144 (122–170) 145 (126–165) 146 (126–167) 150 (133–170) 150 (131–170)

Heart rate 84 (73–99) 83 (71–95) 80 (70–93) 80 (70–91) 80 (70–92)

GCS 14 (6–15) 15 (14–15) 15 (14–15) 15 (15–15) 15 (15–15)

Injury Severity Score 16 (9–26) 10 (5–14) 9 (5–11) 9 (5–11) 9 (5–13)

Body regions injured (AIS ≥2)

 Head 4,873 (68.2) 703 (9.8) 503 (7.0) 1,067 (14.9) 7,146 (46.3)

 Face 661 (71.8) 78 (8.5) 58 (6.3) 123 (13.4) 920 (6.0)

 Chest 2,945 (73.2) 279 (6.9) 189 (4.7) 609 (15.1) 4,022 (26.0)

 Abdomen 1,160 (72.5) 135 (8.4) 78 (4.9) 226 (14.1) 1,599 (10.4)

 Extremities 5,100 (78.8) 256 (4.0) 241 (3.7) 875 (13.5) 6,472 (41.9)

Mechanism of injury

 Fall 1,019 (7.9) 481 (3.7) 2,078 (16.1) 9,334 (72.3) 12,912 (83.4)

 Pedestrian/Pedal cyclist 6 (6.5) 0 (0.0) 2 (2.2) 84 (91.3) 92 (0.6)

 Motor vehicle crash 160 (8.9) 22 (1.2) 122 (6.8) 1,500 (83.1) 1,804 (11.7)

 Firearm injury 34 (54.8) 0 (0.0) 4 (6.5) 24 (38.7) 62 (−0.4)

 Struck 5 (2.1) 9 (3.8) 23 (9.7) 200 (84.4) 237 (1.5)

 Cut or stabbed 7 (10.3) 1 (1.5) 4 (5.9) 56 (82.4) 68 (0.4)

 Other 22 (10.2) 7 (3.2) 22 (10.2) 165 (76.4) 216 (1.4)

Comorbidities

 Heart disease 585 (10.2) 250 (4.4) 1,084 (18.9) 3,815 (66.5) 5,734 (37.1)

 Liver disease 20 (14.3) 5 (3.6) 43 (30.7) 72 (51.4) 140 (0.9)

 Cancer 83 (17.1) 45 (9.3) 134 (27.6) 223 (46.0) 485 (3.1)

 Hypertension 849 (7.3) 407 (3.5) 1,771 (15.3) 8,542 (73.8) 11,569 (74.9)

 Diabetes 342 (8.1) 158 (3.7) 673 (15.9) 3,060 (72.3) 4,233 (27.4)

 Coagulopathy/anticoagulants/antiplatelet 539 (10.3) 213 (4.1) 891 (17.0) 3,606 (68.7) 5,249 (34.0)
 Functional dependence 141 (7.4) 116 (6.1) 437 (23.0) 1,206 (63.5) 1,900 (12.3)

Multivariable regression results

Results of multivariable logistic regression models for mortality at each time point are shown in Table 3. For inpatient mortality, the area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.85 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant lack of fit (p=0.15). Factors associated with in-hospital mortality included male sex, older age, higher maximum AIS overall and for the head/neck region, motor vehicle crash or firearm injury, transfer status, and abnormal vital signs or GCS motor score. Comorbidities associated with in-hospital mortality included heart disease, liver disease, cancer, diabetes, and coagulopathy. Hypertension was associated with lower odds of death.

Table 3:

Multivariable logistic regression results

Inpatient mortality 30-day mortality 1-year mortality*
OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI)
Age 1.05 (1.04, 1.06) 1.08 (1.07, 1.09) 1.08 (1.07, 1.09)
Female 0.68 (0.58, 0.8) 0.63 (0.56, 0.71) 0.68 (0.61, 0.75)
Mechanism (reference = fall)
 Cut/pierce 0.75 (0.2, 2.8) 0.75 (0.26, 2.17) 0.33 (0.12, 0.94)
 Motorvehicle crash 1.45 (1.14, 1.84) 0.94 (0.76, 1.14) 0.44 (0.35, 0.53)
 Pedestrian/cyclist 1.04 (0.35, 3.05) 0.54 (0.19, 1.52) 0.19 (0.05, 0.79)
 Firearm 3.76 (1.73, 8.16) 2.44 (1.2, 4.97) 0.59 (0.19, 1.86)
 Struck 0.53 (0.21, 1.38) 0.75 (0.42, 1.34) 0.56 (0.35, 0.9)
 Other 0.61 (0.31, 1.18) 0.99 (0.62, 1.58) 0.69 (0.45, 1.06)
Transfer patient 1.25 (1.04, 1.5) 1.22 (1.06, 1.4) 1.09 (0.97, 1.23)
Systolic blood pressure 0.99 (0.99, 1) 0.99 (0.99, 1) 0.99 (0.99, 0.99)
Systolic Blood pressure ≤ 40 5.99 (1.79, 20.09) 4.23 (1.43, 12.53) 0.32 (0.03, 3.15)
Heart rate 1.01 (1.01, 1.01) 1.01 (1.01, 1.01) 1.01 (1.01, 1.01)
GCS motor response (reference = 6)
 1 30.03 (23.26, 38.78) 20.69 (15.98, 26.78) 3.1 (1.99, 4.82)
 2 20.97 (8.09, 54.36) 25.49 (8.64, 75.2) 8.71 (1.29, 58.68)
 3 28.77 (14.24, 58.15) 20.75 (9.89, 43.53) 8.03 (2.35, 27.49)
 4 15.1 (10.26, 22.24) 16.08 (10.88, 23.78) 4.03 (2.19, 7.41)
 5 4.47 (3.35, 5.95) 4.36 (3.44, 5.52) 2.63 (1.99, 3.47)
Maximum AIS head/neck 1.17 (1.09, 1.25) 1.19 (1.13, 1.25) 1.02 (0.98, 1.06)
Maximum AIS extremities 0.86 (0.73, 1.02) 0.89 (0.79, 1) 1.03 (0.93, 1.14)
Maximum AIS 1.4 (1.24, 1.59) 1.31 (1.2, 1.44) 1.03 (0.96, 1.11)
Comorbidities
 Heart disease 1.46 (1.24, 1.73) 1.44 (1.27, 1.63) 1.52 (1.37, 1.68)
 Liver disease 1.71 (1.19, 2.46) 3.12 (2.42, 4.01) 3.91 (3.07, 4.98)
 Cancer 2.73 (1.51, 4.94) 2.01 (1.2, 3.37) 3.72 (2.42, 5.72)
 Hypertension 0.72 (0.61, 0.87) 0.83 (0.72, 0.95) 0.99 (0.88, 1.12)
 Diabetes 1.21 (1.02, 1.45) 1.21 (1.06, 1.39) 1.29 (1.15, 1.44)
 Coagulopathy 1.46 (1.24, 1.73) 1.33 (1.18, 1.51) 1.15 (1.03, 1.27)
*

includes only those who survived to discharge and ≥ 30 days

For 30-day mortality using the same variables, the AUC was 0.81 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant lack of fit (p=0.25). Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were very similar to in-hospital mortality. Motor vehicle crash was not associated with mortality at 30 days. The impact of liver disease was more pronounced, and the impact of physiologic indicators was attenuated.

For 1-year mortality, the AUC was 0.73, again with no significant lack of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value 0.34). Indicators of physiology were not significant, with the exception of depressed GCS, and injury severity was not significant, while the role of comorbidities was larger. Compared to patients injured in a fall, those with a cut or stab wound had lower odds of 1-year mortality (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.12, 0.94) as did those injured in a motor vehicle crash (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.35, 0.53), a pedestrian or pedal cyclist crash (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05, 0.79), or struck (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.35, 0.90).

Center-level comparison

Timing of mortality by center is shown in Figure 1. Focusing on in-hospital mortality, we identified 2 low outliers for mortality, and one high outlier (poor performer), as shown in Figure 2. For 30-day mortality (including in-hospital deaths), none of these three were outliers, but 2 different centers were identified as low outliers and 2 as high outliers, as shown in Figure 3. While the remainder of centers had adjusted mortality rates whose confidence intervals crossed one, all but one changed its ranking.

Figure 1:

Figure 1:

Timing of Mortality for Pennsylvania Trauma Patients Age ≥ 65, 2013–2014, by Trauma Center

Figure 2:

Figure 2:

Trauma Center Performance for In-Hospital Mortality

Figure 3:

Figure 3:

Trauma Center Performance for 30-day Mortality

Discussion

Among Medicare beneficiaries age ≥ 65 admitted to Pennsylvania trauma centers in 2013 and 2014, 8.1% died in the hospital and another 3.4% died after discharge but within 30 days. While risk factors associated with death in the hospital or in the first 30 days were very similar, center rankings and outlier status changed substantially when the threshold for mortality was extended to thirty days, which has implications for trauma center performance benchmarking.

Our results confirm prior studies that found elevated risk of death in injured patients well beyond the immediate post-injury period.2,12 To our knowledge, these results have not previously been applied in the context of trauma center benchmarking. While 30-day outcomes have been recommended for trauma quality improvement, post-discharge outcomes are not routinely captured by trauma registrars, and there are substantial logistical barriers to expanding the time horizon of the trauma registry. However, we found that the measurement horizon impacted benchmarking significantly, identifying new high and low performing centers and potentially leading to new areas of focus for performance improvement.

It is not surprising that age and comorbidities accounted for higher odds of death further out from injury, while immediate physiology and injury severity were less significant in the long term. Our results may reflect underlying patient frailty not clearly captured in the database. For example, injury mechanisms that initially conferred higher risk, such as motor vehicle crashes, appeared protective among survivors. We suspect that these mechanisms of injury are more likely to occur in those patients who were more able and active at baseline, whereas the group injured by falls are more frail overall.16,17 Future work should leverage the power of big data to determine whether claims data preceding the fall could be used to predict long term outcomes.

One in four patients died within one year of injury, indicating a long third peak, or third plateau of injury deaths that accrue form a combination of pre-existing health and frailty, injury factors, and treatment. Risk was highest in patients with head injuries, who fell, and who were discharged to skilled nursing facilities. These populations may represent important areas of focus for performance improvement. Injury hospitalization may also uncover pre-existing, but unacknowledged debility. This information can also be incorporated into conversations with patients and their families who have unanswered questions about life after the hospital. Hemorrhage and brain injury account for more than 80% of early deaths after injury. Head injury remains an important cause of deaths in those who survive the immediate post-injury period, with sepsis, lung injury, and multisystem organ failure contributing to later in-hospital deaths.3 Ghorbani et al found that 10% of deaths within 30 days of injury were not related to the injury itself.19 These deaths often occurred after low energy blunt injury. In a study of deaths occurring within 30 days of discharge after an injury admission, less than one-in-five were directly related to injury.20 Grossman et al studied geriatric trauma patients who survived severe injuries (ISS ≥ 30). Although 1/3 died in the hospital, median survival for those discharged alive was more than 3 years, and more than 2/3 ultimately returned to living at home.21 Routine trauma follow up can miss both injuries and medical complications. In one study, 17% of patients contacted one month after injury reported issues that were not identified in routine trauma follow up, although nearly all patients sought outpatient or emergency department medical care. These included severe pain, missed injuries, infections, venous thromboembolism, and mental illness.22 These outcomes may represent missed opportunities to intervene in medically fragile patients.

Limitations of this study include those inherent in the data sources. These data are from 2013–2014, and with the rise in geriatric trauma over the last several years has come an increased focus on quality of care for these patients. It remains to be seen how these efforts will impact short- and long-term outcomes for injured older adults. Although the quality control processes of the PTOS database are excellent, coding may vary from center to center, introducing bias. In particular, patients who died early after presentation may have had less thorough documentation of their injuries or comorbidities. Despite the rigorous matching process, mismatches remain possible; if an injured patient was matched to a different Medicare beneficiary, the outcome of death may have been mislabeled. For this analysis, we emphasized the accuracy of the match over the completenss of the population to ensure that our outcomes assessment was as accurate as possible. Therefore, patients who were unmatched likely had Medicare claims but may have had demographic data used for matching mis-recorded in one dataset or the other. Unmatched patients were different from matched patients, limiting generalizability to the unmatched population. Because long-term outcomes are unknown for unmatched patients, center-level results may be misestimated. Of 28 centers, 24 had match rates over 50%. The median center-level match rate was 57%, with a range from 35–69%. Lastly, PTOS provides detailed clinical data, but is geared toward evaluating immediate outcomes of trauma. Longer term mortality is likely less closely related to an index injury, and other factors not included here may be more predictive. Unfortunately, we do not have data on cause of death after hospital discharge that might allow us to assess the role of injury.

Conclusion

Injured older adults who survive their initial hospitalization are at high risk of death in the immediate post-discharge period, and in the first year after injury. Patients and families should be counseled about these risks, particularly for older patients, those with head injuries, and those discharged to a skilled nursing facility. Additional attention to post-discharge care and home transitions might serve both to identify patients at risk and to reduce post-discharge mortality in the injured elderly. Moreover, trauma center benchmarking initiatives should incorporate 30 day outcomes into center-level comparisons and performance improvement initiatives.

Footnotes

Conflicts of Interest: The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

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Contributor Information

Elinore J. Kaufman, Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care, and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Penn Presbyterian Medical Center, Medical Office Building Suite 120, 51 N. 39th Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104.

Alexis Zebrowski, Department of Emergency Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

Daniel N. Holena, Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care, and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine.

Phillipe Loher, Computational Medicine Center, Thomas Jefferson University.

Douglas J. Wiebe, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, and Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine.

Brendan G. Carr, Department of Emergency Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

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