Abstract
This study uses Nielsen Company data for cigar sales to describe trends and patterns in sales of flavored cigars and cigars sold in small pack sizes in US convenience stores from 2009 to 2020.
The 2009 Tobacco Control Act authorized the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to regulate tobacco products, but the FDA did not assert its authority over cigars until 2016. Although cigarettes were subject to more stringent regulation, cigar companies promoted product features prohibited in cigarettes, specifically flavors and small pack sizes.1 Retail data are useful to establish associations between changes in product features and sales. This study describes patterns in cigar sales since 2009.
Methods
Annual US cigar sales data from 2009 to 2020 were licensed from the Nielsen Company for all convenience stores (eg, independent stores, gas stations, retail chains). Nielsen reports unit and dollar sales and assigns product attributes for each Universal Product Code, including brand, pack size, and flavor. Flavors recorded by Nielsen were collapsed, using a previously used approach,1 into key explicit flavor groups (ie, fruit, sweet/candy, wine, mint/menthol) or as concept flavors, which are ambiguous descriptors.2 Dollar sales, adjusted for inflation, were used, given pack size variability.1 Trends were assessed using Joinpoint version 4.9.0 (National Cancer Institute), a segmented regression analysis application, for average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and 95% CIs. Additionally, we present the best model fit for pack size and flavor, with each segment described by its short-term trend (annual percentage changes [APCs]). Statistically significant percentage changes are noted as those with 95% CIs that did not cross 0 (2-sided α < .05).
Results
Cigar sales increased from $2.47 billion in 2009 to $3.27 billion in 2020 (AAPC, 2.1% [95% CI, 0.5%-3.6%]) (Table). Six brands made up 80.1% to 87.2% of the market share. Flavored cigar sales significantly increased (AAPC, 3.5% [95% CI, 2.3%-4.7%]), but nonflavored cigar sales did not change; shifts in flavor type were noted. Sales of fruit flavors declined (APC, –3.3% [95% CI, –5.2% to –1.3%]), whereas sales of sweet/candy flavors increased from 2009 to 2013 (APC, 24.5% [95% CI, 11.4%-39.2%]) and from 2016 to 2020 (APC, 16.3% [95% CI, 4.0%-30.0%]), and sales of wine flavors declined from 2011 to 2020 (APC, –5.8% [95% CI, –7.9% to –3.6%]) (Figure, A). Sales of concept flavors increased from 2011 to 2014 (APC, 80.2% [95% CI, 6.3%-205.3%]) and from 2014 to 2020 at a slower pace (APC, 16.2% [95% CI, 6.3%-27.0%]). Since 2009, 76.9% to 91.6% of cigar sales were in pack sizes of 5 or fewer. Shifts in pack size also occurred (Figure, B), with sales of packs of 2 or 3 cigars increasing more rapidly than other pack sizes from 2009 to 2011 (APC, 139.9% [95% CI, 108.7%-175.7%]). Single-stick sales declined from 2011 to 2015 (APC, –11.5% [95% CI, –16.8% to –5.9%]), then increased from 2015 to 2020 (APC, 3.0% [95% CI, 0.2%-5.9%]). Sales of packs of 5 cigars declined from 2009 to 2016 (APC, –10.1% [95% CI, –12.9% to –7.2%]), then increased from 2016 to 2020 (APC, 16.4% [95% CI, 8.0%-25.5%]).
Table. Cigar Sales and Market Share by Flavor, Brand, and Packaging Count in US Convenience Stores, 2009-2020: Nielsen Convenience Track.
| Market share, % | 2009-2020 AAPC (95% CI) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||
| Total sales adjusted for inflation, $, in billionsa | 2.47 | 2.75 | 2.62 | 2.59 | 2.37 | 2.36 | 2.46 | 2.64 | 2.96 | 3.06 | 2.97 | 3.27 | 2.1 (0.5 to 3.6)b |
| Nonflavored | 55.0 | 53.8 | 51.8 | 48.5 | 46.7 | 46.7 | 47.9 | 47.9 | 45.6 | 46.0 | 47.0 | 46.7 | 0.6 (–1.4 to 2.7) |
| Flavored | 45.0 | 46.2 | 48.2 | 51.5 | 53.3 | 53.3 | 52.1 | 52.1 | 54.4 | 54.0 | 53.0 | 53.3 | 3.5 (2.3 to 4.7)b |
| Among flavored | |||||||||||||
| Fruit | 63.7 | 59.6 | 56.9 | 50.4 | 43.5 | 39.3 | 38.8 | 38.4 | 37.2 | 34.4 | 31.9 | 29.5 | –3.3 (–5.2 to –1.3)b |
| Sweet/candyc | 12.7 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 21.6 | 25.4 | 24.0 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 23.2 | 25.4 | 27.6 | 30.6 | 11.2 (8 to 14.5)b |
| Conceptd | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 13.0 | 15.6 | 16.7 | 21.0 | 21.8 | 22.5 | 21.4 | 33.0 (25.5 to 41)b |
| Wine | 15.9 | 19.5 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 17.0 | 15.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.0 | –3.5 (–6 to –1)b |
| Mint/menthol | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | –1.8 (–5 to 1.5) |
| Othere | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 11.0 (8.8 to 13.3)b |
| Brand | |||||||||||||
| Black & Mild | 25.4 | 25.6 | 28.4 | 29.6 | 29.8 | 31.6 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 28.3 | 28.4 | 30.0 | 29.0 | 3.1 (2.3 to 3.8)b |
| Swisher Sweets | 31.1 | 30.1 | 26.9 | 24.1 | 24.0 | 25.5 | 27.9 | 28.6 | 24.2 | 24.3 | 22.9 | 22.7 | –1.4 (–7.1 to 4.7) |
| Backwoods | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 16.1 (9.8 to 22.8)b |
| Garcia y Vega | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 8.9 | .1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 11.5 (6.6 to 16.6)b |
| Dutch Masters | 10.0 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | –2.6 (–6.7 to 1.7) |
| White Owl | 5.8 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 (–2.9 to 6.2) |
| Other | 19.8 | 19.9 | 19.5 | 17.9 | 17.7 | 16.1 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 16.5 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 12.9 | –3.9 (–5.3 to –2.5)b |
| Packaging count | |||||||||||||
| Single-stick | 34.7 | 36.7 | 37.5 | 37.9 | 34.4 | 29.3 | 25.6 | 26.4 | 22.1 | 23.3 | 24.3 | 22.4 | –1.6 (–3.9 to 0.8) |
| 2 or 3 cigars/pack | 2.3 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 19.1 | 25.8 | 34.4 | 40.5 | 46.2 | 43.7 | 44.3 | 42.9 | 42.6 | 32.6 (29.2 to 36)b |
| 5 cigars/pack | 39.9 | 35.0 | 33.4 | 27.4 | 25.2 | 23.3 | 22.2 | 16.9 | 22.8 | 22.7 | 23.4 | 26.6 | –1.2 (–4.0 to 1.6) |
| Otherf | 23.1 | 22.3 | 17.8 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 8.4 | –8.7 (–10.6 to –6.8)b |
Abbreviation: AAPC, average annual percentage change.
All years were adjusted to 2020 dollars using the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index.
AAPC is significantly different from 0 at α < .05.
Sweet/candy include flavors such as sweet, honey, chocolate, and vanilla.
Concept includes flavors that were ambiguously named, such as jazz, summer twist, tropical fusion, blue dream fusion, royale, or diamond.
Other includes explicit flavors that did not fit into previously mentioned categories, such as clove, and alcoholic drink flavors such as rum and cola or bellini.
Other pack unit counts include 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 20, 24, 25, 30, 40, 50, 55, 60, 120, and 200.
Figure. Cigar Sales Trends Over Time by Flavor and Packaging Count in US Convenience Stores, 2009-2020.
APC indicates annual percentage change.
aP ≤ .05.
Discussion
Between 2009 and 2020, US cigar sales in convenience stores increased, especially sales of flavored cigars including sweet and concept flavors. The marketing of concept flavors may circumvent state and local flavored tobacco bans.2 Also, packs of 2 or 3 cigars increased, and since 2016, most sales were in pack sizes of 5 or fewer. Small pack sizes are inexpensive, hold appeal for young people, and may facilitate experimentation.3
Limitations of the study include focusing only on convenience store sales and not assessing purchaser age. However, 90.8% of cigar sales in 2020 occurred in convenience stores,4 a tobacco retail outlet particularly popular among youths.5 Additionally, data were not reported by cigar type. Although there is no legal definition for cigarillos, the top cigar brands sold are mid-sized cigars that most consumers report as cigarillos.6
In 2021, the FDA proposed a ban on flavored cigars, but policy implementation may take years and face substantial delays due to industry litigation. Policies that restrict the availability of flavored and inexpensive cigars should be considered at the local and state levels.
Section Editors: Jody W. Zylke, MD, Deputy Editor; Kristin Walter, MD, Associate Editor.
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