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. 2022 Jan 25;39(8):1229–1238. doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1313-6

The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects

Ning Zeng 1,2,✉, Kejun Jiang 3, Pengfei Han 4,2, Zeke Hausfather 5, Junji Cao 6,✉, Daniel Kirk-Davidoff 1, Shaukat Ali 7, Sheng Zhou 8
PMCID: PMC8787441  PMID: 35095159

Abstract

On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar's critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China's socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.

Electronic supplementary material

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s00376-021-1313-6.

Key words: carbon neutral, carbon dioxide reductions, energy system transformation, distributed energy system, model projections

Electronic Supplementary Material to

376_2021_1313_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (1,015.2KB, pdf)

The Chinese Carbon-Neutral goal: Challenges and Prospects

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFB0504000).

Footnotes

Article Highlights

• The Chinese carbon neutral goal will have profound impact but the challenges are enormous.

• Four representative scenarios show significant differences in how to achieve the carbon-neutral goal, but all agree the importance of solar energy.

• We recommend more aggressive actions on distributed solar, wind, small and modular nuclear, smart grid, and energy storage.

This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Carbon Neutrality: Important Roles of Renewable Energies, Carbon Sinks, NETs and non-CO2 GHGs.

Contributor Information

Ning Zeng, Email: zeng@umd.edu.

Junji Cao, Email: jjcao@mail.iap.ac.cn.

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Supplementary Materials

376_2021_1313_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (1,015.2KB, pdf)

The Chinese Carbon-Neutral goal: Challenges and Prospects

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