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. 2022 Mar 29;39(9):1561–1578. doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1389-7

Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

Wushan Ying 1, Huiping Yan 1, Jing-Jia Luo 1,✉
PMCID: PMC8962280  PMID: 35370337

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal development. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST-CFS1.0, previously SINTEX-F). The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands, initialized from 1 March. In addition, the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but the individual members show great discrepancies, indicating large uncertainty in the forecasts. Furthermore, the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982–2020, albeit with underestimated magnitudes. The Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km, which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method, display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some extent. However, the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill, suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.

Electronic supplementary material

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s00376-022-1389-7.

Key words: seasonal forecast, summer precipitation, global climate model, WRF downscaling

Electronic Supplementary Material to

376_2022_1389_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (2.3MB, pdf)

Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42030605 and 42088101) and National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2020YFA0608004). The model simulation is conducted in the High Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. The Hadley monthly mean SST data is downloaded from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. CMAP precipitation data and NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis-II data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, are downloaded from the website at https://psl.noaa.gov/.

Footnotes

Article Highlights

• Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) at a four-month lead is assessed based on NUIST-CFS1.0.

• The model ensemble mean can successfully reproduce the teleconnection between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies.

• WRF downscaling can improve the prediction of extreme precipitation over the MLYR region, especially for their magnitudes.

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376_2022_1389_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (2.3MB, pdf)

Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

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