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Journal of Applied Statistics logoLink to Journal of Applied Statistics
. 2019 Jun 13;47(1):45–60. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2019.1628190

Quantile regression for general spatial panel data models with fixed effects

Xiaowen Dai a, Zhen Yan b, Maozai Tian c,d,e,CONTACT, ManLai Tang f
PMCID: PMC9037698  PMID: 35707608

ABSTRACT

This paper considers the quantile regression model with both individual fixed effect and time period effect for general spatial panel data. Fixed effects quantile regression estimators based on instrumental variable method will be proposed. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators will be developed. Simulations are conducted to study the performance of the proposed method. We will illustrate our methodologies using a cigarettes demand data set.

Keywords: Fixed effects, instrumental variables, quantile regression, space–time panel models, spatial autoregressive

MR(2000) Subject Classifications: 62G05, 62G20, 60G42

1. Introduction

Spatial econometric models have been widely used in many areas (e.g. economics, political science, and public health) to deal with spatial interaction effects among geographical units (e.g. jurisdictions, regions, and states). Recently, the spatial econometrics literature has exhibited a growing interest in the specification and estimation of econometric relationships based on spatial panels, which typically refer to data containing time series observations of a number of spatial units. For instance, Kapoor et al. [11] developed a generalized moments (GM) estimator for a space–time model with error components that are both spatially and time-wise correlated. Lee and Yu [16] proposed the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for the spatial autoregressive (SAR) panel model with both spatial lag and spatial disturbances. All these works were developed based on (conditional) mean regression methods. Reich et al. [17] reviewed nonparametric Bayesian approaches to inference for spatial data. Compared with mean regression methods, the quantile regression (QR) method is more robust and can be adopted to deal with data characterized by different error distributions.

Recently, there has been a growing literature on estimating and testing of QR panel data models. Koenker [14] introduced a novel approach for the estimation of a QR model for longitudinal data. Galvao [8] studied the quantile regression dynamic panel model with fixed effects. Galvao et al. [9] investigated the estimation of censored QR models with fixed effects. Galvao and Wang [10] developed a new minimum distance quantile regression (MD-QR) estimator for panel data models with fixed effects. However, quantile regression estimation for spatial econometric panel models has not been studied in the existing literature.

This paper focuses on the QR estimations in the general SAR panel data model with both individual fixed effects and time period specific effects [16]. We employ the fixed effects quantile regression (FEQR) estimator based on instrumental variable (IV) method to estimate the parameters. The asymptotic properties of the IV-FEQR estimator are also developed.

We apply our theoretical results for the demand for cigarettes. In our model, the spatial lag of real per capita sales of cigarettes is viewed as endogenous. The model presented in this paper can be viewed as a variant of the model proposed by Baltagi and Levin [3]. However, their model did not contain spatial lags, which neglects the spatial dependence in data, and therefore did not involve the ‘endogeneity’ problem. Besides, in the existing literature, most of the related researches upon this example are established in the mean regression framework. As an overview of our results, we found that the cigarette sales between neighbor states are significantly spatial correlated, and the estimation of the spatial correlation coefficients is affected by the endogeneity problem. In addition, the effects of the log average cigarettes retail price and the log disposable income to the cigarettes sales are differed at different quantile levels.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces the SAC panel data model with both individual fixed effects and time period fixed effects, and proposes the IV-FEQR estimation procedure. The asymptotic properties of the IV-FEQR estimators are also discussed. Proofs of the theorems in Sections 2 are given in Appendix. Section 3 reports a simulation study for assessing the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. An empirical illustration is considered in Section 4. Section 5 concludes the paper.

2. General spatial autoregressive panel data quantile regression model with both individual and time effects

Lee and Yu [16, Equation 19] considered the following general spatial autoregressive panel data model with both individual and time effects

yit=ρjiWijyjt+Xitβ+νi+ψt+uit,i=1,,N,t=1,,T,uit=λjiMijujt+εit, (1)

where yit is the dependent variable for subject i at time t, Xit is a p×1 vector of non-stochastic time varying explanatory variables, Wij is the (i,j)th element of the spatial weight matrix W reflecting spatial dependence on yit among cross sectional units, and εit is independent and identically distributed across i and t. Similarly, Mij is the (i,j)th element of the spatial weight matrix M for the disturbances. The parameters νi,i=1,,N are fixed effects for the regions while the parameters ψt,t=1,,T are fixed time effects. Interaction effects are reflected in the spatial–temporal lag variable jiWijyjt (and associated scalar parameter ρ). Here, we consider the case MW.

The model (1) can also be written in an alternative form as

yit=ρdit(1)+λdjt(2)+κdit(3)+Xitβ+Z1iν+Z2tψ+εit, (2)

where dit(1)=jiWijyjt, dit(2)=jiMijyjt, dit(3)=jikjMijWjkykt, κ=ρλ, Xit=[Xit,jiMijXjt], β=(β,λβ), ν=(ν1,,νN), ψ=(ψ1,,ψT), ν=(ν,λν), ψ=(ψ,λψ), Z1=1TIN is an NT×N matrix, Z2=IT1N is an NT×T matrix, 1J is the J×1 vector with all the elements being 1, Z1i=[Z1i,jiMijZ1j], Z2t=[Z2t,jiMijZ2t], Z1i=Z1h1i is an indicator variable for the individual effect νi, h1i is an NT×1 vector with the ith element equal to 1 and the rest equal to 0, i=1,,N, Z2t=Z2h2t is an indicator variable for the time effect ψt, and h2t is an NT×1 vector with the (t1)N+1th element equal to 1 and the rest equal to 0, t=1,,T.

Matrix form of model (2) is

y=Dα+Xβ+Z1ν+Z2ψ+ε, (3)

where y=(y1,,yT) is an NT×1 vector with yt=(y1t,,yNt), D(i)=(D1(i),,DT(i)) is an NT×1 vector with Dt(i)=(d1t(i),,dNt(i)), i=1,2,3, X=(X1,,XT) is an NT×p matrix, Xt=(X1t,,XNt), ε=(ε1,,εT) is an NT×1 vector with εt=(ε1t,,εNt), X=[X,MX], Z1=[Z1,MZ1], and Z2=[Z2,MZ2], W=ITW, M=ITM, W and M are both N×N spatial weight matrices. Here we denote θ=(ρ,λ,κ,β,ν,ψ).

We consider the following conditional τ-quantile of response variable:

Qτ(yit|dit(1),dit(2),dit(3),Xit,Z1i,Z2t)=ρ(τ)dit(1)+λ(τ)dit(2)+κ(τ)dit(3)+Xitβ(τ)+Z1iν(τ)+Z2tψ(τ), (4)

where τ is a quantile in the interval (0,1), Qτ(εit|dit(1),dit(2),dit(3),Xit,Z1i,Z2t)=0. We define the objection function by

R(τ,θ)=i=1Nt=1Tρτ(yitρ(τ)dit(1)λ(τ)dit(2)κ(τ)dit(3)Xitβ(τ)Z1iν(τ)Z2tψ(τ)), (5)

where ρτ(u)=u(τI(u0)) is the check function and I() is the indicator function [15]. The FEQR estimator θˆ(τ) can then be obtained by

θˆ(τ)=argminθR(τ,θ). (6)

Remark 1

However, in practice, the spatial weight matrices M and W may be equal, which will bring difficulty on the identification of ρ and λ in the quantile regression framework. Hence, we consider quantile regression for the following two special cases of model (1):

  1. SAR panel data models:
    yit=ρjiWijyjt+Xitβ+νi+ψt+uit,i=1,,N,t=1,,T. (7)
  2. SEM panel data models  [6]:
    yit=Xitβ+νi+ψt+uit,uit=λjiMijujt+εit,i=1,,N,t=1,,T, (8)

where the variables and parameters are the same as those in model (1).

2.1. IV-FEQR Estimator

However, there exist several lagged dependent variables (d(1), d(2), d(3)) in model (2), which are also endogenous variables. And the presence of endogenous variables will cause biased estimation. Thus the FEQR estimation of model (1) is biased as in the OLS case especially for ρ, λ and κ. The problem of bias for quantile regression for general spatial autoregressive panel model (1) ameliorated through the use of instrumental variables. Therefore, we employ the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) method for estimation in this section. Let α=(ρ,λ,κ) and Dit=[dit(1),dit(2),dit(3)] is a vector of endogenous variables, which are related to a vector of instruments ωit. The instruments ωit are independent of εit. Consider the objection function for the conditional instrumental quantile relationship:

RIV(τ,θ,γ)=i=1Nt=1Tρτ(yitDitα(τ)Xitβ(τ)Z1iν(τ)Z2tψ(τ)ωitγ(τ)). (9)

Following Chernozhukov and Hansen [4,5] and Galvao [8], and assuming the availability of instrumental variables ωit, we can derive the IV-FEQR estimator via the following three steps:

Step 1: For a given quantile τ, define a suitable set of values {αi,i=1,,J;|ρ|,|λ|,|κ|<1}. One then minimizes the objective function for θ,γ to obtain the ordinary QR estimators of β,ν,ψ,γ:

(βˆ(α,τ),νˆ(α,τ),ψˆ(α,τ),γˆ(α,τ))=argminβ,ν,ψ,γRIV(τ,θ,γ). (10)

Step 2: Choose αˆ(τ) among {αi,i=1,,J} which makes a weighted distance function defined on γ closest to 0:

αˆ(τ)=argminαAγˆ(α,τ)Aˆ(τ)γˆ(α,τ), (11)

where A is a positive definite matrix, A is the paramter space of α.

Step 3: The estimation of β,ν,ψ can be obtained, which is respectively βˆ(αˆ(τ),τ), νˆ(αˆ(τ),τ), ψˆ(αˆ(τ),τ).

Similarly, the IV-FEQR estimator of SAR panel data model (7) can be obtained by minimizing the following objective function:

RIV(τ,ρ,β,ν,ψ,γ)=i=1Nt=1Tρτ(yitρ(τ)dit(1)Xitβ(τ)Z1iν(τ)Z2tψ(τ)ωitγ(τ)). (12)

And we can derive the IV-FEQR estimator via the following three steps:

Step 1: For a given quantile τ, define a suitable set of values {ρi,i=1,,J;|ρ|<1}. One then minimizes the objective function for β,ν,ψ,γ to obtain the ordinary QR estimators of β,ν,ψ,γ:

(βˆ(ρ,τ),νˆ(ρ,τ),ψˆ(ρ,τ),γˆ(ρ,τ))=argminβ,ν,ψ,γRIV(τ,ρ,β,ν,ψ,γ). (13)

Step 2: Choose ρˆ(τ) among {ρi,i=1,,J} which makes a weighted distance function defined on γ closest to 0:

ρˆ(τ)=argminρRγˆ(ρ,τ)Aˆ(τ)γˆ(ρ,τ), (14)

where A is a positive definite matrix, R is the paramter space of ρ.

Step 3: The estimation of β,ν,ψ can be obtained, which is respectively βˆ(ρˆ(τ),τ), νˆ(ρˆ(τ),τ), ψˆ(ρˆ(τ),τ).

The IV-FEQR estimation of SEM panel data model (8) can be found in Dai et al. [6].

Remark 2

In practice, we can let the instrumental variable either be ωit or the predicted value of ωit from a least squares projection of Dit on Xit.

Remark 3

For an IV-FEQR estimation, we need instruments for the endogenous variables D. The instruments need to satisfy the following two conditions: (i) instruments ω can impact the endogenous variables D; (ii) instruments ω are independent of the random error ϵ. In practice, for general spatial autoregressive panel data model (1), we can choose y1 (i.e. the lag of dependent variable), WX, MX, W2X, etc. as instrumental variable matrices; for SAR panel data model (7), we can choose y1, WX, W2X, etc. as instrumental variable matrices; for SEM panel data model (8), we can choose y1, MX, M2X, etc. as instrumental variable matrices.

2.2. Asymptotic theory

In this section, we investigate the asymptotic properties of the IV-FEQR estimator in Model (1). We impose the following regularity conditions:

A1 {(yit,Xit)} is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) for each fixed i with conditional distribution function Fit and differentiable conditional densities, 0<fit<, with bounded derivatives fit for i=1,,N and t=1,,T.

A2 For all τT, (α(τ),β(τ)) is in the interior of the set A×B, and A×B is compact and convex.

A3 Let ϑ=(θ,γ),

Π(ϑ,τ)=E[(τI(y<Dα+Xβ+Z1ν+Z2ψ+Eγ))Δ(τ)], (15)

and

Π(θ,τ)=E[(τI(y<Dα+Xβ+Z1ν+Z2ψ)))Δ(τ)], (16)

where Δ(τ)=[E,X,Z1,Z2], E=(ω1,,ωT), ωt=(ω1t,,ωNt). The Jacobian matrices Π(θ,τ)/(α,β,ν,ψ) and Π(ϑ,τ)/(β,ν,ψ,γ) are continuous and have full rank uniformly over B×N×P×G×T. The parameter space A×B×N×P is a connected set and the image of A×B×N×P under the map θΠ(θ,τ) is simply connected.

A4 Denote Ω=diag(fit(ξit(τ))), where ξit(τ)=Ditα(τ)+Xitβ(τ)+Z1iν(τ)+Z2tψ(τ)+ωitγ(τ). Let X~=[X,E]. Then, the following matrices are positive definite:

Jζ=limN,T1NTX~MZ~ΩMZ~X~, (17)
Jα=limN,T1NTX~MZ~ΩMZ~D, (18)
S=limN,Tτ(1τ)NTX~MZ~MZ~X~, (19)

where MZ~=IPZ~ and PZ~=Z~(Z~ΩZ~)1Z~Ω, Z~=[Z1,Z2]. Let [J¯β,J¯γ] be a conformable partition of Jζ1 and H=J¯γAJ¯γ. Hence, Jζ is invertible and JαHJα is also invertible.

A5 maxyit=O(NT), maxXit=O(NT) and maxωit=O(NT).

A6 W and M are non-stochastic spatial weights matrices with zero diagonals.

A7 W and M are uniformly bounded in both row and column sums in absolute value, i.e. supN1W< and supN1W1<, supN1M< and supN1M1<.

Lemma 1

Denote εit(τ)=yitξit(τ), and let ϑ=(α,β,ν,ψ,γ) be a parameter vector in V=A×B×N×P×G. Let

δ=δαδβδνδψδγ=NT(αˆ(τ)α(τ))NT(βˆ(τ)β(τ))T(νˆ(τ)ν(τ))N(ψˆ(τ)ψ(τ))NT(γˆ(τ)γ(τ)). (20)

Under conditions A1–A7, we have

supϑV1NTi=1Nt=1Tρτεit(τ)DitδαNTXitδβNTZ1iδνTZ2tδψNωitδγNTρτ(εit(τ))Eρτεit(τ)DitδαNTXitδβNTZ1iδνTZ2tδψNωitδγNTρτ(εit(τ))=op(1).

To further comment on the nature of the correlation between y1 and ω required by A3, note that, for a given quantile τ, by A1 we have that

E(τI(y<Dα+Xβ+Z1ν+Z2ψ)))Δ(τ)(α,β,ν,ψ)=EE,X,Z1,Z2ΩDX,Z1,Z2.

Hence, the Jacobian in A3 takes a form of density-weighted covariance matrix for D, Z1, Z2, E variables, and requires that this matrix has full rank. In addition, A3 imposes that global identifiability must hold; hence, the impact of E should be rich enough to guarantee that the equations are solved uniquely.

Theorem 1 Consistency —

Under conditions A1–A7, (α(τ),β(τ),ν(τ),ψ(τ)) uniquely solves the equation E[(τI(y<Dα+Xβ+Z1ν+Z2ψ))Δ(τ)]=0 over A×B×N×P and (α(τ),β(τ),ν(τ),ψ(τ)) is consistently estimable. Therefore, the parameters β(τ),ν(τ),ψ(τ) are also consistently estimable.

Theorem 2 Asymptotic distribution —

Under conditions A1–A7 and Lemma 1, for a given τ(0,1), θˆ=(αˆ,βˆ) converges to a Gaussian distribution:

NT(θˆ(τ)θ(τ))dN(0,Λ(τ)), (21)

where Λ(τ)=JSJ, S=limN,Tτ(1τ)/NTX~MZ~MZ~X~, X~=[X,E], J=(K,L), MZ~=IPZ~, PZ~=Z~(Z~ΩZ~)1Z~Ω, Z~=[Z1,Z2], Ω=diag(fit(ξit(τ))) , L=J¯βM, M=IJαK, K=(JαHJα)1JαH, H=J¯γAJ¯γ, Jα=limN,T1/NTX~MZ~ΩMZ~D, Jζ=limN,T1/NTX~MZ~ΩMZ~X~, and [J¯β,J¯γ] is a conformable partition of Jζ1.

3. Monte Carlo simulations

In this section, we report the results of a Monte Carlo study in which we assess the finite sample performance of the IV-FEQR estimators proposed in Section 2. For comparison purpose, we generate the samples being considered in the design of Lee and Yu [16]:

y=ρWy+Xβ+Z1ν+Z2ψ+u,u=λMu+ε,

where ρ0=0.2, λ0=0.5 and β0=1. Here, X, ν, ψ are drawn independently from N(0,1) and both the spatial weights matrices W and M are the same rook matrices. We use some combinations of T=20,50, and N=49,100. For the disturbance errors, we consider the standard normal (i.e. N(0, 1)) and Cauchy (i.e. t1) distributions.

For each set of generated sample observations, we calculate the IV-FEQR estimators. This step is repeated for 1000 times. We consider the bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) for the MLE  [16, Section 2.1], QMLE [16, Section 2.2.], OLS and IV-FEQR. The quantile regression based estimators are calculated for quantiles τ=(0.25,0.5,0.75). For the IV-FEQR estimator, we employed y1 and WX as instrument. The results are summarized in Tables 1 and 2.

Table 1. Bias and RMSE of various estimators (with both individual and time effects) when εitN(0,1). The table shows the bias, RMSE (in parentheses) and t-statistic [in brackets].

      IV-FEQR      
  y1   WX  
N T Para. τ=0.25 τ=0.5 τ=0.75   τ=0.25 τ=0.5 τ=0.75 MLE QMLE OLS
49 20 ρ 0.008 0.007 0.001   −0.001 0.001 −0.007 −0.035 −0.036 0.107
      (0.140) (0.141) (0.138)   (0.126) (0.127) (0.130) (0.085) (0.083) (0.129)
      [1.806] [1.569] [0.229]   [0.251] [0.249] [1.702] [13.015] [13.709] [26.217]
    λ 0.008 0.008 0.006   0.005 0.007 0.007 −0.023 −0.024 0.223
      (0.137) (0.138) (0.140)   (0.125) (0.132) (0.130) (0.174) (0.172) (0.232)
      [1.846] [1.832] [1.355]   [1.264] [1.676] [1.702] [4.178] [4.410] [30.381]
    β −0.002 −0.001 0.002   −0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001 −0.029
      (0.044) (0.043) (0.049)   (0.042) (0.042) (0.046) (0.044) (0.047) (0.045)
      [1.437] [0.735] [1.290]   [0.753] [0.753] [1.374] [0.718] [0.673] [20.369]
  50 ρ 0.001 −0.001 0.003   0.002 0.003 0.005 −0.034 −0.033 0.107
      (0.136) (0.133) (0.135)   (0.145) (0.140) (0.144) (0.080) (0.080) (0.115)
      [0.232] [0.238] [0.702]   [0.436] [0.677] [1.098] [13.433] [13.038] [29.408]
    λ 0.002 −0.002 0.003   0.008 0.005 0.003 −0.022 −0.023 0.230
      (0.136) (0.137) (0.138)   (0.142) (0.142) (0.142) (0.166) (0.169) (0.234)
      [0.465] [0.461] [0.671]   [1.781] [1.113] [0.668] [4.189] [4.302] [31.067]
    β 0.001 −0.001 0.001   −0.001 0.001 0.002 −0.002 0.001 −0.029
      (0.030) (0.027) (0.029)   (0.029) (0.027) (0.029) (0.028) (0.029) (0.036)
      [1.054] [1.171] [1.090]   [1.090] [1.171] [2.180] [2.258] [1.090] [25.461]
100 20 ρ 0.003 −0.003 0.000   −0.004 0.002 −0.001 −0.016 −0.014 0.104
      (0.136) (0.136) (0.137)   (0.138) (0.139) (0.138) (0.057) (0.056) (0.115)
      [0.697] [0.697] [0.000]   [0.916] [0.455] [0.229] [8.872] [7.902] [28.584]
    λ 0.008 0.006 −0.002   0.005 0.008 0.005 −0.008 −0.008 0.263
      (0.136) (0.137) (0.137)   (0.137) (0.133) (0.140) (0.126) (0.128) (0.266)
      [1.859] [1.384] [0.461]   [1.154] [1.901] [1.129] [2.007] [1.975] [31.251]
    β 0.001 −0.001 −0.001   0.001 0.001 −0.001 −0.001 −0.001 −0.031
      (0.033) (0.030) (0.033)   (0.033) (0.029) (0.033) (0.031) (0.032) (0.039)
      [0.958] [1.054] [0.958]   [0.958] [1.090] [0.958] [1.020] [0.988] [25.124]
  50 ρ −0.001 0.002 0.003   −0.003 −0.008 −0.001 −0.014 −0.014 0.103
      (0.082) (0.133) (0.081)   (0.148) (0.140) (0.145) (0.053) (0.055) (0.108)
      [0.386] [0.475] [1.171]   [0.641] [1.806] [0.218] [8.349] [8.045] [30.144]
    λ 0.003 0.001 0.001   0.007 0.006 0.003 −0.006 −0.006 0.269
      (0.087) (0.132) (0.083)   (0.143) (0.137) (0.141) (0.121) (0.123) (0.270)
      [1.090] [0.239] [0.381]   [1.547] [1.384] [0.673] [1.567] [1.542] [31.490]
    β −0.001 0.001 −0.000   −0.001 −0.000 −0.000 0.001 0.001 −0.033
      (0.015) (0.019) (0.013)   (0.020) (0.019) (0.020) (0.021) (0.020) (0.036)
      [2.107] [1.664] [0.000]   [1.580] [0.000] [0.000] [1.505] [1.580] [28.973]

Table 2. Bias and RMSE of various estimators (with both individual and time effects) when εitt(1). The table shows the bias, RMSE (in parentheses) and t-statistic [in brackets].

      IV-FEQR      
      y1   WX  
N T Para. τ=0.25 τ=0.5 τ=0.75   τ=0.25 τ=0.5 τ=0.75 MLE QMLE OLS
49 20 ρ −0.004 0.002 −0.001   0.003 0.001 −0.001 −0.039 −0.041 0.227
      (0.120) (0.119) (0.115)   (0.118) (0.117) (0.115) (0.051) (0.056) (0.241)
      [1.054] [0.531] [0.275]   [0.804] [0.270] [0.275] [24.170] [23.141] [29.771]
    λ −0.003 0.002 −0.002   −0.001 0.002 0.004 −0.036 −0.033 0.241
      (0.120) (0.119) (0.119)   (0.114) (0.114) (0.116) (0.078) (0.079) (0.260)
      [0.790] [0.531] [0.531]   [0.277] [0.555] [1.090] [14.588] [13.203] [29.297]
    β 0.006 −0.001 0.006   0.006 −0.002 0.005 −0.593 1.915 −0.653
      (0.110) (0.074) (0.111)   (0.113) (0.076) (0.108) (17.774) (30.814) (25.040)
      [1.724] [0.427] [1.709]   [1.678] [0.832] [1.463] [1.055] [1.964] [0.824]
  50 ρ −0.002 −0.001 0.003   −0.002 0.004 −0.003 −0.040 −0.042 0.225
      (0.115) (0.117) (0.121)   (0.115) (0.117) (0.119) (0.046) (0.048) (0.230)
      [0.550] [0.270] [0.784]   [0.550] [1.081] [0.797] [27.484] [27.656] [30.920]
    λ −0.001 0.001 −0.001   0.002 0.001 −0.002 −0.033 −0.035 0.247
      (0.121) (0.119) (0.121)   (0.121) (0.119) (0.123) (0.070) (0.073) (0.260)
      [0.261] [0.266] [0.261]   [0.522] [0.266] [0.514] [14.900] [15.154] [30.027]
    β −0.002 0.001 −0.001   −0.002 −0.001 −0.001 0.791 −0.978 0.767
      (0.065) (0.044) (0.066)   (0.068) (0.046) (0.067) (14.184) (30.731) (16.594)
      [0.973] [0.718] [0.479]   [0.930] [0.687] [0.472] [1.763] [1.006] [1.461]
100 20 ρ 0.005 0.008 0.006   0.004 0.005 0.005 −0.020 −0.021 0.204
      (0.121) (0.121) (0.119)   (0.121) (0.122) (0.120) (0.030) (0.040) (0.211)
      [1.306] [2.089] [1.594]   [1.045] [1.295] [1.317] [21.071] [16.594] [30.558]
    λ −0.003 0.007 −0.004   −0.002 0.006 −0.005 −0.012 −0.013 0.286
      (0.119) (0.116) (0.119)   (0.119) (0.116) (0.121) (0.042) (0.045) (0.292)
      [0.797] [1.907] [1.062]   [0.531] [1.635] [1.306] [9.031] [9.131] [30.958]
    β 0.001 −0.001 0.001   −0.001 0.001 0.002 0.361 0.154 0.609
      (0.077) (0.054) (0.077)   (0.076) (0.056) (0.078) (20.749) (9.490) (60.260)
      [0.411] [0.585] [0.411]   [0.416] [0.564] [0.810] [0.550] [0.513] [0.319]
  50 ρ −0.001 0.001 −0.001   −0.001 0.001 0.001 −0.019 −0.020 0.207
      (0.091) (0.119) (0.093)   (0.092) (0.118) (0.095) (0.027) (0.027) (0.211)
      [0.347] [0.266] [0.340]   [0.343] [0.268] [0.333] [16.231] [23.413] [31.008]
    λ 0.001 0.005 0.004   0.001 0.004 0.005 −0.011 −0.012 0.285
      (0.094) (0.112) (0.094)   (0.096) (0.111) (0.098) (0.036) (0.037) (0.291)
      [0.336] [1.411] [1.345]   [0.329] [1.139] [1.613] [9.658] [10.251] [30.955]
    β −0.001 −0.001 −0.002   0.001 −0.001 0.001 2.562 −0.399 −0.082
      (0.039) (0.032) (0.040)   (0.040) (0.033) (0.040) (54.012) (10.464) (10.549)
      [0.810] [0.988] [1.580]   [0.790] [0.958] [0.790] [1.499] [1.205] [0.246]

Tables 1 and 2 show that the IV-FEQR estimator performs better than the other estimators in t1 settings. In general, we find that the IV-FEQR estimator based on two different instruments has similar bias and RMSEs. Under normal disturbance errors, the IV-FEQR estimators for λ perform better than the other estimators, the IV-FEQR estimators for ρ have smaller biases and larger RMSEs than the MLE, QMLE and OLS estimators, while the IV-FEQR estimators for β have similar biases and RMSEs as the MLE, QMLE and OLS estimators. For Cauchy disturbance errors, our proposed IV-FEQR estimators outperform the other estimators as we do not impose any finite moment assumption on the disturbance errors. Therefore, we conclude that the proposed IV-FEQR is more robust in practice. To confirm the asymptotic properties, we employ the t-statistic to test whether the bias of parameters ρ, λ and β is 0. The critical value is t1α/2(999)=1.962 with the significant level α=0.05. From Tables 1 and 2, we can see that the approximate t-statistic values for IV-FEQR estimators are generally all smaller than the critical value.

4. Illustration

In this section, we use the cigarette demand data set (https://spatial-panels.com/software/) to illustrate our methodologies. The data set is based on a panel of 46 states over 30 time periods (1963–1992) including the spatial weight matrix W, which has been analyzed by many authors (see Baltagi and Levin [3], Baltagi [1], Baltagi, Griffin, and Xiong [2], Yang [19], Elhorst [7], Kelejian and Piras [12]). We employ the general spatial autoregressive panel data model (1), the SAR panel data model (7) and the SEM panel data model (8) for fitting the date set. Table 3 gives the SIC values (see Kim [13]) of the three fitted models. The top half of table presents the SIC values with both the individual and time-period effects while the bottom half of table shows the SIC values with individual effects only. From which we can see that the general spatial autoregressive panel data model with individual effects only has the smallest SIC value at most of the quantile levels and is employed for analysis.

Table 3. The SIC values of the three spatial panel data models at quantile τ=0.1,,0.9. The first two smallest values are marked in bold.

  τ
  0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
With both individual and time period effects
Model (1) 9.469 13.438 10.413 9.796 9.703 10.067 8.862 9.027 8.129
Model (7) 9.463 8.854 6.593 9.385 8.420 8.681 8.362 8.282 4.471
Model (8) 9.342 6.665 8.338 10.025 9.652 7.968 8.172 8.077 7.976
With individual effects only
Model (1) 8.585 6.254 8.811 8.324 7.969 7.354 6.985 9.184 11.329
Model (7) 5.643 8.968 10.345 8.716 7.782 9.199 7.761 8.042 8.759
Model (8) 10.058 7.999 12.639 8.386 10.284 8.867 9.262 8.374 6.997

The fitted QR model takes the form:

Qτ(logCit|Dit,Xit)=Ditα(τ)+Xitβ(τ)+Z1iν(τ), i=1,,46,t=2,,30, (22)

where Cit is real per capita sales of cigarettes by persons of smoking age (14 years and older), Dit=[dit(1),dit(2),dit(3)], Xit=[Xit,jiMijXjt], dit(1)=jiWijlogCjt, dit(2)=jiMijlogCjt, dit(3)=jikjMijWjklogCkt, Xit=[logPit,logYit], Pit is the average retail price of a pack of cigarettes measured in real terms, and Yit is real per capita disposable income. Here, the spatial weight matrix M is a second-order spatial weight matrix, which can be generated based on W via slag function from the Econometrics Toolbox provided by LeSage (http://www.spatial-econometrics.com). Considering the computational cost, we choose logCit1 as instruments.

We estimate the parameters using the IV-FEQR, MLE, and OLS methods. The results are presented in Table 4. The first three columns are the IV-FEQR estimates for τ=0.25,0.5,0.75, and the last two columns correspond to the MLE and OLS estimates respectively. We can see that the IV-FEQR estimates vary at different quantiles (i.e. τ=0.25,0.5,0.75). The signs of the estimates for ρ, β are the same among IV-FEQR, MLE, and OLS methods, which show that at quantiles 0.25,0.5 and 0.75, the cigarette sales between neighbor states have a positive effect to each other, the log average cigarettes retail price has a negative effect to the cigarette sales, and the log disposable income has a positive effect to the cigarette sales.

Table 4. Estimation results of cigarette demand using general spatial panel data models.

  IV-FEQR    
Parameter τ=0.25 τ=0.50 τ=0.75 MLE OLS
ρ 0.022 0.292 0.492 0.391 0.308
λ −0.890 0.432 0.850 0.729 2.176
Log average cigarettes retail price −1.009 −0.810 −0.686 −3.236 −0.815
Log disposable income 0.878 0.557 0.591 0.527 0.540

Figure 1 presents a complete analysis, which considers other quantiles of the conditional cigarettes demand distribution. The x-axis presents the quantiles and y-axis presents the estimation of parameters (red lines) and their corresponding confidence intervals (blue lines). We find that the cigarette retail price has negative effect to the capita sales of cigarettes and disposable income has positive effect to the capita sales of cigarettes at all quantile levels. Besides, the estimates of capita sales of cigarettes are larger at extreme and middle quantiles than those at other quantiles. On the contrary, the estimates of disposable income are smaller at the extreme and middle quantiles.

Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Quantile effects of the log average retail price of a pack of cigarettes and the log disposable income with individual effects only. The areas represent 95% point-wise confidence intervals.

5. Conclusion

In this paper, we investigate the IVQR estimation of general spatial autoregressive panel data model with fixed effects. The model with both individual and time-period effects is considered. The asymptotic properties are studied. Monte Carlo results are provided to show that the proposed methodology is robust to error distributions with undefined moments.

Appendix: Proofs.

Proof of Lemma 1 is similar to that of Lemma 2 in Galvao [8] and is hence omitted here.

A.1. Proof of Theorem 1

Proof.

First, following Chernozhukov and Hansen [4], (α(τ),β(τ),ν,ψ) uniquely solves the problem for each τ.

To prove the consistency of the parameter, we need to show that under conditions A1–A7, θˆ(τ)=θ(τ)+op(1). Let

P:ϑρτ(yDαXβZ1νZ2ψ),

and P is continuous. Under condition Lemma 1, we have that ϑˆ(α,τ)ϑ(α,τ)P0 for ϑ=(α,β,ν,ψ,γ), which implies that γˆ(α,τ)γ(α,τ)P0. By Corollary 3.2.3 in van der Vaart and Wellner [18], we have ρˆ(τ)ρ(τ)P0 and λˆ(τ)λ(τ)P0. Therefore, βˆ(αˆ(τ),τ)β(τ)P0, νˆ(αˆ(τ),τ)νP0, ψˆ(αˆ(τ),τ)ψP0, and γˆ(αˆ(τ),τ)0P0. Hence, θˆ(τ)θ(τ)P0 and the theorem follows. □

A.2. Proof of Theorem 2

For any αˆ(τ)Pα(τ)(δαP0), we can write the objective function defined in Equation (9) as

VIV(δ)=i=1Nt=1Tρτεit(τ)DitδαNTXitδβNTZ1iδνTZ2tδψNωitδγNTρτ(εit(τ))

where εit(τ)=yitξit(τ), ξit(τ)=Ditα(τ)+Xitβ(τ)+Z1iν(τ)+Z2tψ(τ)+ωitγ(τ), and

δ=δαδβδνδψδγ=NT(αˆ(τ)α(τ))NT(βˆ(τ)β(τ))T(νˆ(τ)ν(τ))N(ψˆ(τ)ψ(τ))NT(γˆ(τ)γ(τ)).

For fixed (δα,δβ,δψ,δγ), we can consider the behavior of δν. Let ϕτ(u)=τI(u<0) and

git(δα,δβ,δν,δψ,δγ)=1Tt=1Tϕτεit(τ)DitδαNTXitδβNTZ1iδνTZ2tδψNωitδγNT.

Let

supgit(δα,δβ,δν,δψ,δγ)git(0,0,0,0,0)E[git(δα,δβ,δν,δψ,δγ)git(0,0,0,0,0)]=op(1).

Expanding git, we obtain

E[git(δα,δβ,δν,δψ,δγ)git(0,0,0,0,0)]=1Tt=1TE(ϕτ(εit(τ)DitδαNTXitδβNTZ1iδνTZ2tδψNωitδγNT)ϕτ(εit(τ))=1Tt=1T[τF(ξit(τ)+DitδαNT+XitδβNT+Z1iδνT+Z2tδψN+ωitδγNT)]=1Tt=1Tfit(ξit(τ))[DitδαNT+XitδβNT+Z1iδνT+Z2tδψN+ωitδγNT]+op(1),

where F() is the conditional distribution of yit. At the minimizer, git(δˆα,δˆβ,δˆν,δˆψ,δˆγ)0, and thus E[git(δα,δβ,δν,δψ,δγ)git(0,0,0,0,0)]=git(0,0,0,0,0), i.e. the last equation has the following equivalent expression:

1Tt=1Tfit(ξit(τ))[DitδαNT+XitδβNT+Z1iδνT+Z2tδψN+ωitδγNT]=1Tt=1Tϕτ(εit(τ)).

Optimality of δˆν implies that git(δα,δβ,δν,δψ,δγ)=o(T1), and thus

δˆνi=f¯i1(1Tt=1Tϕτ(εit(τ))1Tt=1Tfit(ξit(τ))(DitδαNT+XitδβNT+Z2tδψN+ωitδγNT))+op(1),

where f¯i=T1t=1Tfit(ξit(τ)). Substituting Z1iδˆν's, we denote

gt(δα,δβ,δψ,δγ)=1Ni=1Nϕτ(εit(τ)DitδαNTZ2tδψNωitδγNT).

Let

supgt(δα,δβ,δψ,δγ)gt(0,0,0,0)E[gt(δρ,δλ,δκ,δβ,δψ,δγ)gt(0,0,0,0)]=op(1).

Expanding gt, we obtain

E[gt(δα,δβ,δψ,δγ)gt(0,0,0,0)]=1Ni=1NE(ϕτ(εit(τ)DitδαNTXitδβNTZ1iδˆνTZ2tδψNωitδγNT)ϕτ(εit(τ))=1Ni=1Nfit(ξit(τ))[(1T1f¯i1t=1Tfit(ξit(τ)))(DitδαNT+XitδβNT+Z2tδψN+ωitδγNT)+T1f¯i1t=1Tϕτ(εit(τ))]+op(1).

At the minimizer, gt(δˆα,δˆβ,δˆψ,δˆγ)0, thus E[gt(δα,δβ,δψ,δγ)gt(0,0,0,0)]=gt(0,0,0,0), i.e. the last equation has the following equivalent expression:

1Ni=1Nfit(ξit(τ))[(1T1f¯i1t=1Tfit(ξit(τ)))(DitδαNT+XitδβNT+Z2tδψN+ωitδγNT)+T1f¯i1t=1Tϕτ(εit(τ))]=1Ni=1Nϕτ(εit(τ)).

Optimality of δˆψ implies that gt(δα,δβ,δψ,δγ)=o(N1), and thus

δˆψt=f¯t1(1N(1T1f¯i1t=1Tfit(ξit(τ)))1i=1Nϕτ(εit(τ))NT1f¯tf¯i1t=1Tϕτ(εit(τ))1Ni=1Nfit(ξit(τ))(DitδαNT+XitδβNT+ωitδγNT))+op(1),

where f¯t=N1i=1Nfit(ξit(τ)). Substituting Z2tδˆψ, we denote

G(δα,δβ,δγ)=1NTi=1Nt=1TX~itϕτ(εit(τ)DitδαNTXitδβNTZ1iδˆνTZ2tδˆψNωitδγNT),

where X~it=[Xit,ωit]. Let

supG(δα,δβ,δγ)G(0,0,0)E[G(δα,δβ,δγ)G(0,0,0)]=op(1).

Expanding G, we obtain

E[G(δα,δβ,δγ)G(0,0,0)]=1NTi=1Nt=1TX~itfit(ξit(τ))[DitδαNT+XitδβNT+Z1iδˆνT+Z2tδˆψN+ωitδγNT]+op(1),=1NTi=1Nt=1TX~itfit(ξit(τ))[(1N1f¯t1i=1Nfit(ξit(τ)))(1T1f¯i1t=1Tfit(ξit(τ)))×(DitδαNT+XitδβNT+ωitδγNT)+N1f¯t1i=1Nϕτ(εit(τ))+T1f¯i1t=1Tϕτ(εit(τ))]+op(1).

At the minimizer, G(δˆα,δˆβ,δˆγ)0, E[G(δα,δβ,δγ)G(0,0,0)]=G(0,0,0), i.e. the last equation has the following equivalent expression:

1NTi=1Nt=1TX~itϕτ(εit(τ))=1NTi=1Nt=1TX~itfit(ξit(τ))[(1N1f¯t1i=1Nfit(ξit(τ)))×(1T1f¯i1t=1Tfit(ξit(τ)))(DitδαNT+XitδβNT+ωitδγNT)+N1f¯t1i=1Nϕτ(εit(τ))+T1f¯i1t=1Tϕτ(εit(τ))].

Letting δζ=(δβ,δγ), we write the equation above as

1NTi=1Nt=1TX~itfit(ξit(τ))[(1N1f¯t1i=1Nfit(ξit(τ)))(1T1f¯i1t=1Tfit(ξit(τ)))×(X~itδζNT+DitδαNT)+N1f¯t1i=1Nϕτ(εit(τ))+T1f¯i1t=1Tϕτ(εit(τ))]=1NTi=1Nt=1TX~itϕτ(εit(τ)).

Alternatively, using more convenient notation, we write the last expression as

Jζδζ+Jαδα=Jφ,

where Jζ=limN,TX~MZ~ΩMZ~X~, Jα=limN,TX~MZ~ΩMZ~D, Jφ is a mean zero r.v. with covariance τ(1τ)X~MZ~MZ~X~, Ω=diag(fit(ξit(τ))) and Φτ is an NT vector (φτ(εit(τ))), Z~=[Z1,Z2], MZ~=IPZ~, PZ~=Z~(Z~ΩZ~)1Z~Ω.

Letting [J¯β,J¯γ] be a conformable partition of Jζ1 as in Galvao [8] and Chernozhukov and Hansen [4] yields δˆβ=J¯β(JφJαδα), and δˆγ=J¯γ(JφJαδα). Letting H=J¯γAJ¯γ as in Chernozhukov and Hansen [4] gives δˆα=KJφ, where K=(JαHJα)1JαH. Replacing it in the previous expression, δˆγ=J¯γ(JφJαδα)=J¯γ(IJα(JαHJα)1JαH)Jφ=J¯γMJφ, where M=IJα(JαHJα)1JαH. Due to the invertibility of JαJ¯γ, δˆγ=0×Op(1)+op(1). Similarly, substituting back δρ and δλ, we obtain that δˆβ=J¯βMJφ. By the regularity conditions, we have that

δˆα(ρn,λn,κn,τ)δˆβ(ρn,λn,κn,τ)=NT(αˆ(ρn,λn,κn,τ)α(τ))NT(βˆ(ρn,λn,κn,τ)β(τ))N(0,JSJ).

Funding Statement

The work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11271368, 11861042), the major research projects of philosophy and social science of the Chinese Ministry of Education (No. 15JZD015), the Key Program of National Philosophy and Social Science Foundation Grant (No. 13AZD064), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, and the Research Funds of Renmin University of China (No. 18XNL012), Shanghai Natural Science Foundation (No. 18ZR1427200), and National Science Foundation of China (No. 11801370).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

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