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. 2022 Nov 12;16(3):461–481. doi: 10.1007/s12273-022-0948-2

Modelling method of inter-building movement for campus-scale occupancy simulation: A case study

Mingya Zhu 1, Yiqun Pan 1,✉, Zejun Wu 1, Zhizhong Huang 2, Risto Kosonen 3,4
PMCID: PMC9652123  PMID: 36408059

Abstract

As an important factor in the investigation of building energy consumption, occupant behavior (OB) has been widely studied on the building level. However so far, studies of OB modelling on the district scale remain limited. Indeed, district-scale OB modelling has been facing the challenges from the scarcity of district-scale data, modelling methods, as well as simulation application. This study initiates the extrapolation of occupancy modelling methodology from building level to district scale through proposing modelling methods of inter-building movements. The proposed modelling methods utilize multiple distribution fittings and Bayesian network to upscale the event description methods from inter-zone movement events at the building level to inter-building movement events at the district level. This study provides a framework on the application of the proposed modelling methods for a university campus in the suburbs of Shanghai, taking advantages of data sensing, monitoring and survey techniques. With the collected campus-scale occupancy data, this paper defines five patterns of inter-building movement. One pattern represents the dominated inter-building movement events for one kind of students in their daily campus life. Based on the quantitative descriptions for various inter-building movement events, this study performs the stochastic simulation for the campus district, using Markov chain models. The simulation results are then validated with the campus-scale occupancy measurement data. Furthermore, the impact of inter-building movement modelling methods on building energy demand is evaluated for the library building, taking the deterministic occupancy schedules suggested by current building design standard as a baseline.

Keywords: occupancy modelling, event description, inter-building movement, stochastic process, transition probability, campus buildings, data acquisition

Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51978481).

List of symbols

K

number of resulted clusters

L1-dor

location 1: Dormitory

L2-rest

location 2: Restaurant

L3-col

location 3: College Lab

L4-lib

location 4: Library

L5-gym

location 5: Gym

L6-lec

location 6: Lecture hall

L7-out

location 7: Outside campus

P(locationt,j)

probability of locating at j in t time

P(locationt,j∣locationt−1,i)

conditional probability of locating at i in t−1 time and locating at j in t time

Pτ

Markov chain transition probability matrixes

tb, tb’

event period of Breakfast arrival (tb) and Breakfast departure (tb’)

td, td’

event period of Dinner arrival (td) and Dinner departure (td’)

te

event period of Back to dormitory (te)

tk, tk’

event period of the Nth course arrival (tk) and the Nth course departure (tk’)

tl, tl’

event period of Lunch arrival (tl) and Lunch departure (tl’)

ts, ts’

event period of Outside campus (ts) and Back to campus (ts’)

txtx’

event period of the Nth arrival at lab (tx) and the Nth departure from lab (tx’)

Abbreviations

7-/16-D

7-/16-dimensional

ABM

agent-based method

BAS

building automation system

DT

decision tree

GIS

geographic information system

ICT

information and communication technology

IEA

International Energy Agency

LR

logistic regression

MC/MCM

Markov chain method

MCMC

Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

OB

occupant behavior

Author Contribution

Yiqun Pan, Mingya Zhu, and Zhizhong Huang contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Zejun Wu and Mingya Zhu. The first and second draft of the manuscript were written by Mingya Zhu. Previous versions of the manuscript were reviewed and commented by Yiqun Pan and Risto Kosonen. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.

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