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Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2022 Nov 21;5:100143. doi: 10.1016/j.dajour.2022.100143

A multi-criteria based analytic framework for exploring the impact of Covid-19 on firm performance in emerging market

Sanjib Biswas a,, Gautam Bandyopadhyay a, Jayanta Nath Mukhopadhyaya b
PMCID: PMC9678210

Abstract

The recent pandemic has been the greatest catastrophic event in the last century that has left its irrevocable effect on the socio-economic and cultural environment. The current work presents a combined multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) framework of logarithmic percentage-change driven objective weighting (LOPCOW) and evaluation is based on distance from average solution (EDAS) method to enfold the early impact of COVID-19 on firm performance from fast moving consumer goods and consumer durables sectors in emerging market. Five aspects such as stock performance, dividend payout capability, sales and operational performance, financial stability and economic sustainability are considered for comparing 30 firms over seven consecutive financial years (FY 2013–14 to FY 2020–21). For aggregation of year wise rankings popular methods like Borda count and Copeland methods have been applied. A comparison of results of the LOPCOW-EDAS model with other MCDM methods has been made. It is noticed that the firms which held the overall top positions prior to COVID-19 suffer more afterward than the bottom performers. However, there has not been any major effect of COVID-19 on firms’ financial health and long-term growth prospect. The result shows significant reliability and stability as revealed by the comparative ranking and sensitivity analysis. The proposed framework shall enable the organizations for detailed performance analysis. Some of the policy and managerial implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision making, Logarithmic percentage-change driven objective weighting, Evaluation is based on distance from average solution, Borda count, Firm performance, COVID-19

1. Introduction

Since the Great Depression in the last century, the world has never been threatened with a disaster like the recent COVID-19. In the aftermath of its first reported instance in Wuhan, China, on December 08, 2019, the tiny virus has quivered the world with its fatal consequential impact on lives and livelihoods. To date, more than 60 crore people got infected with this deadly disease, while the reported figure of death across the globe is around 65 lakhs [1]. Alongside the adverse physiological and psychological effects, COVID-19 has shuttered the socio-economic and cultural environment and trades [2], [3], [4]. The global economy has not recovered from the disruptive traces of the pandemic on the stock market and business operations [5]. COVID-19 lunged at the countries as a rare momentous event that the world had never encountered in the last several decades. To combat the early jolts, the governments of almost all nations across the globe took strict measures. The countries declared a prolonged shutdown of all activities and went into lockdowns several times in 2020 and 2021. Besides the medical emergencies, the trades and businesses got severely affected, leading to a negative footfall on the firm performance. All the leading global indices have witnessed a downturn in performance and higher volatility with spill over effects [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11]. One recent study [12] reported that investors reacted in a usual way during the early phases of the pandemic. However, as the number of infected cases and deaths grew significantly, investment decisions were crippled by fear. As a result, the stock market started facing the adverse impact of the pandemic. Besides the downturn in stock performance, the firms have also experienced the fatal impact of the pandemic on their value chains. Due to prolonged shutdowns and uncertainty prevailing over the business environment, the organizations have suffered from operational and financial implications. The firms, irrespective of their nature and volume of operations, have reported the adverse impact of the pandemic on performance. Hence, to formulate effective strategic decisions, it is relevant to investigate the effect of COVID-19 on the firms’ financial, operational, and market performance.

The present paper demonstrates a case study on two sectors, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables (CD), in an emerging market like India. The early effect of COVID-19 on firm performance is unveiled using appropriate analytical framework. FMCG firms are an inseparable part of the household’s daily life. The sector features a higher consumption level, various products with widely varying price levels, intense intra-industry rivalry, diverse competition, and a lower entry and exit barrier. With increasing per capita consumption, disposable income, and technological advancement, CD products are essential for daily entertainment, leisure, and household use. It may be an intriguing work to explore the effect of COVID-19 on these two sectors. To carry out a comprehensive analysis, we consider five dimensions such as stock performance, dividend pay-out capability (DPC), sales and operational performance (SOP), financial stability (FS) and long-term growth prospect for economic sustainability (ES). The performance of the firms are compared during pre-and post- pandemic periods. The firm performance on each of these dimensions depend on multiple factors or criteria. Thus, the present work utilizes the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. The research questions that the present paper intends to enquire are:

RQ 1. How can an effective MCDM framework be formulated and applied to discern the stock performance, DPC, SOP, FS and ES of the firms?

RQ 2. To what extent the firms differ from each other based on their stock performance, DPC, SOP, FS and ES in each period (i.e., pre and post COVID-19 phases)?

RQ 3. To what extent the firm performance in the post COVID-19 period differ from their prior performances?

The motivations of the current problem stems from the extant literature. The rare and unprecedented disruption caused by COVID-19 has garnered the immediate attention of researchers and practitioners from various domains. A plethora of work has been conducted to explore the causes of the disease, its physiological and psychological impacts, and remedial courses of action. Besides, the growing literature has contributed a sizeable number of scholarly and practical articles, cases, and reports about engineering, social science, and business management to enfold the pandemic’s effect and formulate future courses. From the literature review, it is amply evident that there has been a growing concern about probing the effects of COVID-19 on firm performance. We have noticed that the lion’s share of the previous work emphasized analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on the stock performance of the firms, i.e., market-based performance. The experts [38] believed that market-based performance measures are superior to accounting-based assessment to figure out the top-line performance and growth of the firms. The financial performance of the organizations is equally important. Some researchers argued that the performance of the firms depends on financial and operational results reflecting their effectiveness and efficiency and, thereby, their competitive positions [39], [40].

Given the above arguments, we contend that supremacy in fundamental performance and market attractiveness are the kingpins for the firms to achieve sustainable competitive advantage and show better resilience to the disruptive impact of a catastrophic and unforeseen event like COVID-19. It is also seen that the extant literature primarily uses causal and predictive models to gauge the impact of the pandemic on firm performance. The scope of the work has been mostly limited to the stock market performance only. There is a void in the literature regarding the use of prescriptive analytical models for a comprehensive assessment of firm performance based on multiple factors. Our work is motivated by the gaps mentioned earlier in the literature.

We formulate an MCDM framework comprising LOPCOW and EDAS methods to address the current issue. LOPCOW method is used to calculate the criteria weights while EDAS helps in comparative analysis of the alternatives under the influence of the criteria. The dynamic field of MCDM has been enriched with a substantial number of algorithms developed by various researchers over the last few decades. Some of the notable contributions are mentioned in Table 1.

Table 1.

List of some commonly used MCDM models.

MCDM model Use Reference
Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Ranking and criteria weights [13]
Elimination Et Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) Ranking [14]
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Criteria weight [15]
Više Kriterijumska optimizacija i Kompromisno Rešenje (VIKOR) Ranking [16]
Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) Ranking [17]
Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) Ranking [18]
Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) Criteria weight [19]
Analytic Network Process (ANP) Ranking and causal relation [20]
Multi-objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis (MOORA) Ranking [21]
MULTIMOORA Ranking [22]
Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) Ranking [23]
Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) Criteria weight [24]
Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) Ranking [25]
Multi-Attributive Border Approximation Area Comparison (MABAC) Ranking [26]
Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) Ranking [27]
Combinative Distance-based Assessment (CODAS) Ranking [28]
Pivot Pairwise Relative Criteria Importance Assessment (PIPRECIA) Criteria weight [29]
Full consistency method (FUCOM) Criteria weight [30]
Combined Compromise Solution (CoCoSo) Ranking [31]
Level Based Weight Assessment (LBWA) Criteria weight [32]
Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution (MARCOS) Ranking [33]
Ranking of Alternatives through Functional mapping of criterion sub-intervals into a Single Interval (RAFSI) Ranking [34]
Logarithm Methodology of Additive Weights (LMAW) Criteria weight and ranking [35]
Preference Ranking on the Basis of Ideal-Average Distance Method Ranking [36]
Logarithmic percentage-change driven objective weighting (LOPCOW) Criteria weight [37]

For any MCDM based analysis, criteria weight plays a critical role in deciding the final ranking order [41]. The alternatives are ranked subject to their performance trading off the varying influence of the criteria [42]. The selection of an appropriate algorithm given the context of the problem helps in achieving the reasonable accuracy in the result [43]. There has been a plethora of models available for deriving the criteria weights. The models are broadly classified under two categories such objective information based and subjective rating based methods. The objective information based models enjoy the advantage of lesser subjective bias and uncertainty [44]. The distribution of weights, presence of negative performance values in the decision matrix and size of the criteria and alternative sets are some of the issues that affect the true representation of the criteria influence on the firms [45]. To this end, the LOPCOW method has been developed by Ecer and Pamucar [37] for providing the following advantages over its widely applied counterpart such as Entropy method, PIPRECIA, SWARA etc.

  • (a)

    The distribution of the criteria weights gets less influenced by the variations in the performance values of the alternatives and provide a reasonable accurate result.

  • (b)

    Ability to work with negative performance values of the alternatives

  • (c)

    Does not suffer from the effect of a large number of alternatives and criteria

EDAS is a distance based MCDM model that compares the attractiveness of the alternatives based on two distances such as PDA (positive distance from the average) and NDA (negative distance from the average) with respect to the average solution point as benchmark. The method developed by Keshavarz Ghorabaee et al. [27] provides a number of advantages such as stability and reliability of the results subject to presence of variations in the performance values in the decision matrix and a large number of alternatives and criteria and no impact of rank reversal phenomenon among others [46].

The main contributions of the present paper are as follows. First, the paper provides a new application of the hybrid analytical model utilizing LOPCOW and EDAS for evaluation of firm performance. The proposed model can be leveraged for obtaining reliable and stable outcome for solving various complex real-life issues. Secondly, the current work is a novel attempt to discern the firm performance vis-à-vis COVID-19 considering both market based and accounting based measures in a MCDM framework. Third, the present study provides a multi-period performance assessment using MCDM algorithms and aggregation techniques.

The rest of the paper is exhibited in the following manner. In Section 2, a brief summary of some of the recent work related to the effect of COVID-19 on firm performance and stock market is presented while highlighting the research gap and contributions of the present paper. Section 3 elaborates the research framework. Section 4 provides the description of the criteria used for the comparative performance assessment of the firms under study. In Section 5, the procedural steps of the methods are mentioned. Section 6 highlights the key findings of the data analysis while Section 7 includes discussions on the results and mentions some of the implications of the research. Section 8 concludes the paper with a direction toward some of the future work.

2. Related work

In this section we summarize some of the related work in the stated field. In relation with the impact of the COVID-19, the extant literature shows two broad strand of contributions. The first major strand focuses on the effect of the COVID-19 on the firms reflected in their stock market performance. There has been a plethora of work conducted in this work in no time after the spread of COVID-19. For instance, Rao et al. [47] studied the impact of COVID 19 on the financial market. Daily performance of Nifty 50 indexed companies was associated with the cases and death reported due to COVID 19 from the period of March 2020 to November 2020. The paper also examined the impact of COVID-19 across10 sectors of Nifty using panel regression techniques. The test revealed that the daily return of the stock market has been negatively impacted due to COVID-19 exposure. The sectors like Pharma, Telecom, and FMCG have shown a significant positive impact over other sectors was also illustrated in the study. Mazur et al. [48] examined the immediate impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 and revenue shock by observing the stock behavior market. S&P 1500 firms were studied across sectors to understand the differential price reaction and investigate the implications for stock price volatility. The authors had adopted the event study methodology. The study concluded that the outbreak of the pandemic showed abnormally high returns in healthcare, food, natural gas, and software sectors, whereas firms operating in crude petroleum, real estate, entertainment, and hospitality sectors plummet considerably losing more than 70% of their market capitalizations.

Kumar and Kumara [49] have attempted to study the performance of the Nifty 50 before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. The study was made by comparing the closing indexes of Nifty for January, April & June 2020. They conclude that in the pre-COVID era, the market was witnessing new highs in January. The market started to fall at the end of March’20 and crashed in April’20 when the country went into a nationwide lockdown. With the restart of economic operations, the stock indexes also started picking up their upward pace as per the data of June 2020. Sun et al. [50] investigated how the individual investor’s sentiments on returns during COVID-19 have impacted the Chinese stock market. They conducted an event study on 1914 sample companies listed under the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the period starting from 25th July 2019 to 31st March 2020. To sentiment of investors is measured in GuhaSenti, established by the International Institute of Big Data in Finance, BNU. The study was analyzed using the Panel regression model where the expected return was derived using Fama–French Model. The study concluded that the volatility in the stock market during the pandemic was not purely because of economic losses, the widespread negative sentiment of panic and uncertainty was also found to be associated with the same.

Agustin [51] explored the impact of rising cases and deaths due to COVID-19 along with the implementation of social restrictions on the performance of the Islamic stocks listed under the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Panel regression was applied to the daily stock price of the companies listed under the Jakarta Islamic Index from December 2019 to November 2020. The study took Market to book ratio and Market Capitalization of the selected 26 companies as the controlled variables. The results suggested that there was a negative impact of the said event on the stability of the stock market. The market became more volatile with the increasing cases and tightening of social restrictions as investors reacted more to these than the growth in the number of deaths. The study also concluded that some sectors like- consumer goods, mining, and trading performed better than other sectors. Bing [52] examined the relationship between the retail investor’s behavior and their ability to forecast the market during the COVID-19. The bivariate Vector Auto Regression Model was used to analyze by comparing the retail investor’s flows and returns during the pandemic. The sample for the study was collected for the period January 2019 to March 2020 from the Chinese Stock Market. The study concludes that positive feedback trading during COVID-19 was weaker than in the pre-COVID-19 period which followed the negative returns during the COVID-19 which indicates the panic trading by retail investors.

Kusumahadi and Permana [53] studied the impact of COVID-19 on the volatility of stock returns of 15 countries. Daily data from January 2019 to June 2020 was analyzed using Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Regression which revealed that stock return volatility of all the selected countries was affected except in the case of the United Kingdom. The study also concluded that the stock return of all the selected countries was highly volatile, especially during March 2020. Further, an analysis was also made to understand the fundamental factors affecting the stock returns and it was observed that the exchange rate was one of the significant factors that negatively affected the stock returns. Yong et al. [54] studied time-series data from the FTSE Malaysia KLCI Index and FTSE Straits Time Index to analyze the stock volatility and performance before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the daily closing prices of indices. The data was examined from July 2019 to August 2020 using various GARCH models with different probability distributions in the log-likelihood function. The analysis determined that the stock returns in both the exchanges are very persistent in the pre-Covid era, which declined during the pandemic.

Lee et al. [55] studied the interrelationship between the COVID-19 outbreak, macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, interest rate, market returns), and hospitality industry returns in China. The analysis was made using the SVAR framework on the data collected from January 13, 2020, to May 11, 2020. The transmission of structural shock due to pandemic and macroeconomic fluctuation was quantified using impulse response analysis. The study concluded that the shock of COVID-19 has a slight and insignificant influence as there was a transitory increase in the exchange rate (currency depression), a persistent decrease in the interest rate, and a short-lived decrease in hospitality industry return. The study also employed Variance Decomposition, which showed that the percentage contribution of COVID-19 to variation of hospitality industry return was increasing since the pandemic continues to spread. Bora and Basistha [56] empirically examined the impact of COVID-19 on volatility and returns earned at the stock prices in India. The study was divided into Pre-COVID Phase (September 3, 2019, to January 29, 2020) and COVID Period (January 30, 2020, to July 7, 2020) to compare the volatility and returns in both periods. The study employed the Generalised Auto Regression Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model in daily closing prices of Nifty 50 and Sensex. The results concluded that the Indian Stock Market did experience volatility in the wake of the pandemic and that the Sensex was more sensitive than NSE. It also added that the returns were higher in the pre-COVID period than during the COVID-19 period. However, the market from April 2020 started to show a positive trend. The authors have also conducted Ljung Box Q and ARCH LM test which concluded that the models used for the study are performed correctly.

Verma et al. [57] analyzed the short-the term impact of the pandemic on the Indian Stock Market. Nifty-50 was chosen as a proxy for the stock market and its 13 constituent sectors were also examined using 3 models- constant return, market, and adjusted market models of the event study method. The results showed that at the onset of the pandemic, the market declined by 15%–17%, but the impact was noted as temporary as the stock market’s performance was relatively better. The sector-wise study showed that 4 sectors had an average abnormal return out of which IT, Pharma, and Consumer Goods have a positive or limited impact whereas Financial Services are impacted the worst. Mittal and Sharma [58] explored the impact of COVID-19 on Indian Healthcare and Pharma stock returns. The daily closing price of the stocks listed on BSE was considered for 233 trading days from May 15, 2019 – to April 24, 2020. The analysis was made using the Event Study Method to compare the abnormal & cumulative returns of the different sectors of BSE. The results showed that the significant abnormal positive returns were seen in only two sectors — BSE FMCG & BSE Healthcare whereas sectors like- Consumer Discretionary, Banks and Real estate sectors were worst affected.

Utomo and Hanggraeni [59] examined the impact of COVID-19 and lockdown policies on the stock market returns in Indonesia. Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression was used to study the impact of COVID-19 spread, mortalities, and the lockdown policies on the stock returns of 272 firms listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange between March 2, 2020, and November 27, 2020. It was concluded from the study that COVID-19 had a mixed impact on the Indonesian Stock Market. The daily growth in COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths hurt the stock returns whereas the lockdown policies had a positive and significant effect on the stock returns as the government prompt actions restored the confidence of Investors. The sector-wise analysis pointed out that the Property, Trade, Service, and Investment sectors were negatively impacted and the stocks of Consumer Goods and Mining sectors performed better. Herwany et al. [60] studied the impact of COVID-19 on different sectors and market returns of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Event Study Method using market model is used to study 9 sectors for a period of 30 days before the event (January 20, 2020, to February 28, 2020) and a period from March 3, 2020, to April 15, 2020, during the event. Further, OLS Regression is applied, showing that COVID-19 has a significantly negative impact on market returns. Consumer Goods and Mining Sectors showed a temporary negative sentiment compared to other sectors that were negatively impacted. The work of [61] studied the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy. Various economic variables like- GDP, Stock Performance, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, and 20 years of Treasury Bills of the top 10 economies of the world were analyzed. The results showed that there was a moderate positive correlation between the variables.

The study of Ren et al. [62] focused on the Chinese stock market wherein the authors examined the effect of COVID-19 on local firms situated in the different provinces of the China. Based on the analysis carried out using the difference-in-difference model the authors noted an initial jerk in the stock performance affected locally by the degree of spread of the pandemic as the firms reported lower return compared to the benchmark. However, the authors highlighted the positive effect of the stringent control reflected in the greater resilience shown by the firms. Rahman et al. [63] investigated the stock market response to the COVID-19 in four South Asian Countries, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The data relating to the daily spread of COVID-19 and daily stock returns were observed. The analysis was made using Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test and cross-validation was made using the pairwise Granger Causality Test. The study concluded that India’s stock market is more volatile and also has the highest gains in returns relative to the other South Asian Countries. The results also indicated a unidirectional causality from COVID-19 to stock market returns, which showed that COVID-19 has a dominant short-term influence on the market.

Behera et al. [64] studied the impact of immunization on the mortality rate and the performance of the Indian stock market. The data for the study was collected from MoHFW and BSE from February 2021 to July 2021. The study employed Exploratory Data Analysis to analyze the key feature of the dataset with the visual method and the statistical analysis to validate the relationship between vaccination with the stock market and the death rate. The analysis also has included the Machine Learning Regression Models like- Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression, and KNN Regression to make an objective prediction about the study. The results revealed that increasing the vaccination process has decreased the volatility and chaos in the security market and the death rate due to COVID-19. The study also highlighted the impact of policy recommendations taken by the Government of India to boost the confidence in the Financial Market and the Economy.

Naik et al. [65] analyzed the trading behavior of Institutional Investors, both foreign and domestic affects the market volatility. The study was made taking both Indian Equity and Debt market into consideration. The daily returns of Nifty 50, daily purchase and sale of FPI, from RBI and domestic institutional investors like Mutual Fund agencies from SEBI, and the daily confirmed case of COVID from January 2020 to July 2020 were taken for the study. EGARCH model was used to measure volatility and the Granger Causality test was also applied to understand how net sales by institutional investors in the Equity Market cause volatility in returns. The data when plotted in time series showed that in the wake of the pandemic, the Nifty index started declining and displays recovery at a slower pace with mild fluctuation post-March 2020. The study further revealed that FII’s trading behavior in the equity and debt market significantly influences market volatility whereas the DIIs do not have a significant role. It also concludes that the growth of COVID-19 is insignificant in influencing the market volatility, which may be due to corrective intervention by RBI and the government. Scherf et al. [66] studied how national stock exchanges worldwide responded to the news of national lockdown restriction. The study was made from January 2020 to May 2020 which was further split into 1st phase of lockdown from January 22, 2020, to March 27, 2020, and 2nd phase from March 28, 2020, to May 20, 2020. Multinational market panel analysis with event study was made on 42 OECD and BRICS nations. Infection data, Reuters data, and OXCGRT stringent Index were analyzed. The findings of the study were inconsistent with the Effective Market Hypothesis. The market reacted negatively in the 1st phase of restrictions and positively in the 2nd phase. The study concluded that the pandemic and national lockdowns had not significantly impacted the stock returns.

The second major section of the previous work showcased the effect of the pandemic on the firms’ financial performance vis-à-vis stock performance. In this regard, Shen et al. [67] followed a two stage approach. The authors utilized predictive models to forecast financial performance of selected Chinese companies across the sectors for the first quarter of 2020 based on their results during 2013–2019. Next, the authors used all performance values during the first quarter of each year from 2014 to 2020 under the moderating influence of investment growth and total revenue and applied the difference-in-difference approach to discern the firm level impact. The study reported a significant negative effect of the pandemic on the corporate performance and reduction in the sales and total revenue. The work of Golubeva [7] considered three levels such as overall firm level, financial aspect and country level for assessing the effect of the pandemic. For a deeper analysis the author further considered industrial sector, firm size, export and market demand parameters. The paper recognized the importance of country level interventions on assuring the firm performance amidst the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Hu and Zhang [68] observed an adverse effect of COVID-19 on overall firm performance such as return on assets in near and mid-term. The authors noted that the magnitude of effect decreases for the countries having sound healthcare system, good institutional governance and financial management. Chu et al. [69] worked on the real estate sector. The authors found that the firms with presence in wide geographic area with well diversified business operations could show resilience to the early impact of COVID-19 and sustain the return. The authors noted that higher leverage reduces the return irrespective of the geographic presence. Størdal et al. [70] conducted an event study of the performance of the forest product companies during the early phases of the pandemic. The authors noted medium term impact on the return and the systematic risk of the stocks at the marketplace after declaration of the pandemic while forestry subsector showed more vulnerability in comparison with the paper subsector. The work of Clampit et al. [71] made a comparative analysis of sales growth of 128 US manufacturing firms considering both pre and post COVID-19 phases. The study pointed out some interesting observations as obtained through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression approach. First, the firms with higher R&D focus showed better resilience. The authors advocated for better current asset management to keep optimum balance of cash and inventory. Secondly, the authors observed that the firms with higher operating risk had performed well during the hard time.

The study of Maemunah and Cuaca [72] added a new perspective by finding the positive impact of the business strategy, use of information technology and agility of the supply chains on the performance of the medical device manufacturing firms in Indonesia after the spread of coronavirus. In the Malaysian and Thai context, the enquiry of Srinok and Zandi [73] revealed that flexibility in formulation of the strategic decisions, effective utilization of organizational resources, especially slack resources and innovativeness have a significant positive influence on the firm performance while futuristic and proactive marketing efforts played a mediating role. Cho and Saki [39] concentrated on the textile and apparel industries in USA and noted a substantial adverse effect of COVID-19 on firm performance, much greater than the two prior notable dreadful events like terrorist attack on 9/11 and the sub-prime crisis in 2008. The authors also observed that the declaration of the special aids and relief have had a positive reinforcement in combating the aftershock of COVID-19. Kumar and Zbib [74] examined the role of managerial ability in mitigating the COVID disruption. The authors found that the ability of leadership of CEO helped the firms to ensure better return on equity (ROE) and stock market return. Further, CEO managerial ability enables maintaining beneficial liquidity level for showing resilience to catastrophic event like COVID-19. In another work, Ahmad et al. [75] considered a long horizon 2004 to 2020 for delving into the interrelationship of working capital management and organizational performance and the effect of the pandemic. The study on 577 units from the developing countries in Asia considering working capital policy, cash conversion cycle, net working capital (working capital management) and return on asset and Tobin’s Q (as indicators for firm performance) revealed that both working capital and return got affected by COVID-19 and working capital management has a causal bearing on return. Bose et al. [76] established an empirical model to find out the impact of pandemic on firm value while considering sustainability performance as a moderator. The authors pointed out that the firms from the countries having higher level of sustainability and orientation toward creation of the stakeholder value posit lesser vulnerability to the disruption.

2.1. Research gap

In this section we point out the identified gaps that are found from the review of the extant literature. Table 2 highlights a brief summary of the literature review.

Table 2.

Summary of the literature review.

Author (s) Study area Methodology
Golubeva [7] Effect of the pandemic on three levels such as overall firm level, financial aspect and country level Statistical analysis

Rao et al. [47] Performance assessment of NIFTY 50 (India) stocks and 10 sectoral indices based on daily data vis-à-vis COVID-19 reported cases and deaths (Period: March 2020 to November 2020) Panel regression

Mazur et al. [48] Stock price volatility and revenue shock for S&P 500 stocks Event study

Kumar and Kumara [49] Performance of NIFTY 50 (India) before and after the pandemic (Period: January, April & June 2020) Descriptive analysis and time series modeling

Sun et al. [50] Investigation on investors’ sentiments and stock market reaction in terms of price movement and volatility in Chinese market (Period: 25th July 2019 to 31st March 2020) Event study and panel regression

Agustin [51] Performance of the Islamic stocks listed under the Indonesia Stock Exchange using daily stock prices (period: December 2019 to November 2020) Panel regression

Bing [52] Relationship between the retail investor’s behavior and their ability to forecast the market during the COVID-19 in Chinese stock market (Period: January 2019 to March 2020) Bivariate Vector Auto Regression Model

Kusumahadi and Permana [53] The impact of COVID-19 on the volatility of stock returns of 15 countries using daily data from January 2019 to June 2020 Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Regression

Yong et al. [54] Analyze the stock volatility and performance before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the daily closing prices of indices for FTSE Malaysia KLCI Index and FTSE Straits Time Index. (period: July 2019 to August 2020 ) Time series analysis using GARCH models

Lee et al. [55] The relationship between the COVID-19 outbreak, macroeconomic variables (exchange rate, interest rate, market returns), and hospitality industry returns in China (Period: January 13, 2020, to May 11, 2020) SVAR framework

Bora and Basistha [56] The impact of COVID-19 on volatility and returns earned at the daily stock prices listed on Nifty 50 and Sensex in India (Period: pre-COVID phase: September 3, 2019, to January 29, 2020 and COVID phase: January 30, 2020, to July 7, 2020) Generalised Auto Regression Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model

Verma et al. [57] Short-the term impact of the pandemic on NIFTY 50 in India using constant return, market, and adjusted market models Event study

Mittal and Sharma [58] Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Healthcare and Pharma stock returns using daily closing price of the stocks listed on BSE, India (Period: May 15, 2019 – to April 24, 2020). Event study

Utomo and Hanggraeni [59] impact of COVID-19 spread, mortalities, and the lockdown policies on the stock returns of 272 firms listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (March 2, 2020 to November 27, 2020) Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

Herwany et al. [60] Impact of COVID-19 on different sectors and market returns of the Indonesian Stock Exchange (phase 1: January 20, 2020, to February 28, 2020; phase 2: March 3, 2020, to April 15, 2020) Event Study Method and OLS Regression

Verma et al. [61] Various economic variables like- GDP, Stock Performance, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, and 20 years of Treasury Bills of the top 10 economies Statistical and time series analysis

Ren et al. [62] Chinese stock market performance Difference-in-difference model

Rahman et al. [63] Stock market response to the COVID-19 in four South Asian Countries, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test and pairwise Granger Causality test

Behera et al. [64] Impact of immunization on the mortality rate and the performance of the Indian stock market (February 2021 to July 2021). Exploratory Data Analysis

Naik et al. [65] Trading behavior of Institutional Investors, both foreign and domestic affects the market volatility (Indian Equity and Debt market) from January 2020 to July 2020 EGARCH model

Scherf et al. [66] Effect of the news of national lockdown restriction on stock exchange Event study

Shen et al. [67] Forecasting of financial performance of selected Chinese companies across the sectors and discern the firm level impact. difference-in-difference approach

Hu and Zhang [68] Effect of COVID-19 on overall firm performance such as return on assets in near and mid-term. Statistical analysis

Chu et al. [69] Analysis of resilience of firm performance and sustain return across the geographical areas Statistical analysis

Størdal et al. [70] Performance of the forest product companies during the early phases of the pandemic. Event study

Clampit et al. [71] Comparative analysis of sales growth of 128 US manufacturing firms considering both pre and post COVID-19 phases. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression approach

In what follows are the gaps identified in the related work.

  • There is no evidence of comprehensive evaluation of the firm performance vis-à-vis COVID-19 that use multi-criteria based mathematical models. Past research have mostly used causal models and event studies to discern the impact of the pandemic. Hence, from methodological point of view there is a shortcoming related to development of MCDM based analytical framework

  • Multi-criteria based multi-period assessment of firm performance and aggregation of ranking is not seen.

  • The previous studies are predominantly focused on assessing stock market performance while fundamental performance measurement is seen in few cases. There is a gap in the literature that considers both market based and accounting measures.

  • The extant literature does not show any evidence of measuring the effect of the pandemic on firm capabilities in terms of dividend payment, sales and operational performance, financial stability and long-term growth prospect

  • There is a scantiness of work focusing on FMCG and CD sectors regarding the impact of the pandemic.

In this paper we fill the above-mentioned gaps in the literature by investigating the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance using MCDM model based comprehensive framework.

3. Research framework

The step by step brief description of the research design is pictorially depicted in Fig. 1. In what follows are the information regarding sample and study period.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Research Framework

(SP: Stock performance; DPC: Dividend pay-out capability; SOP: Sales and operational performance; FS: Financial stability; ES: Economic sustainability).

3.1. Study period

The whole spectrum (for study) ranges from April 2013 to March 2021 (i.e., FY 2013–14 to FY 2020–21). We divide the work in two phases: phase 1: Pre COVID-19 (covering the period FY 2013–14 to FY 2019–20) and phase 2: Post COVID-19 (early phase, FY 2020–21)

3.2. Sample

The current work present a case study on the firms related to the FMCG and CD sectors in an emerging market like India. The sample units are selected based on their average market capitalization over the study period (excluding the COVID-19 phase). Accordingly, top 25 FMCG and top 5 CD companies are selected as the final sample. Hence, the final sample consists of 30 firms which satisfies the minimum requirement of the sample size as mentioned in [77], [78], [79], [80], [81]. Table 3 provides the list of firms under study

Table 3.

List of Alternatives (i.e., stocks) under comparison.

S/L Alternatives Category S/L Alternatives Category
A1 Avanti Feeds Ltd. FMCG A16 I T C Ltd. FMCG
A2 Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd. FMCG A17 Jyothy Labs Ltd. FMCG
A3 Bombay Burmah Trdg. Corpn. Ltd. FMCG A18 K R B L Ltd. FMCG
A4 Britannia Industries Ltd. FMCG A19 Marico Ltd. FMCG
A5 C C L Products (India) Ltd. FMCG A20 Nestle India Ltd. FMCG
A6 Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. FMCG A21 Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Ltd. FMCG
A7 Dabur India Ltd. FMCG A22 Radico Khaitan Ltd. FMCG
A8 E I D-Parry (India) Ltd. FMCG A23 Tata Consumer Products Ltd. FMCG
A9 Emami Ltd. FMCG A24 United Breweries Ltd. FMCG
A10 Future Consumer Ltd. FMCG A25 Zydus Wellness Ltd. FMCG
A11 Gillette India Ltd. FMCG A26 Rajesh Exports Ltd. CD
A12 Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. FMCG A27 Symphony Ltd. CD
A13 Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. FMCG A28 Titan Company Ltd. CD
A14 Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. FMCG A29 Voltas Ltd. CD
A15 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. FMCG A30 Whirlpool Of India Ltd. CD

3.3. Data

The data for this work has been obtained from the valid secondary databases like CMIE Prowess IQ (version 1.96), company website and BSE websites. The supplementary data file (.xls) is given along with this paper.

4. Criteria description

In this section we discuss about the criteria used in this paper for comparing the sample units. As mentioned above the comparison of the firms are done from the five perspectives such as stock level (C1), DPC wise (C2), SOP level (C3) and on the basis of their FS (C4) and ES (C5).

4.1. Stock performance

There has been a number of research contributing toward finding out the criteria for assessing stock performance (for example, [82], [83], [84], [85], [86], [87]). To select the criteria for stock performance we consider the broad framework of the modern portfolio theory (MPT) started with the seminal work of Markowitz [88] and its subsequent developments along with investors’ sentiment in terms of expected utility [89] and prospects [90].

4.2. DPC

DPC of a particular company refers to a composite score based on its performance subject to the factors influencing the dividend payout. To derive the criteria/factors that influence the dividend payment we follow the extant literature in the stated field and consider the aspects like ownership pattern [91], [92], size of the organization [93], profitability [94], [95], growth prospect [96], liquidity [97], [98] and risk [95].

An effective IO structure helps to mitigate the agency cost problem and optimum holding and utilization of cash. Profitability provides a signal of earning prospect and supports payment of dividends while size has a positive impact on the profitability. In this paper we consider two criteria such as NPM and ROCE as indicators of profitability from the perspective of business operations and shareholders. The growth of the organization is a reflection of effectiveness and efficiency of its business and future prospect. To this end, we consider SG and MCEV as these show the acceptability of the company’s products by the customers and market. FCF is an indication of liquidity that enables the firms to overcome its burden and asset mobility. The debt position with respect to the earnings is of equal importance as a measure of near to middle term risk of the organization.

4.3. SOP

Sales and operation plays a major role in any organization and reflects the effectiveness and efficiency of the business operations while offsetting the risk. The effectiveness and efficiency of sales and operations of any organization get mirrored in its ability to increase the revenue (through sales), generate profits (from the business operations through optimum utilization of the resources and assets), ensure adequate liquidity and solvency (to meet short term and long term obligations) and short and long term capital (to continue the current operations), maintain the mobility of the assets and to tame down the risk (through control of the debt level). To this end we consider eight financial indicators to assess SOP of the firms in line with the discussions and findings recorded in the previous work [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109], [110], [111], [112], [113], [114].

The criteria for assessing stock performance, DPC and SOP are described briefly in Table 4.

Table 4.

Criteria for comparing firm performance.

S/L Criteria Description Effect direction UOM References
Aspect 1: Stock performance

C11 Average Stock Return (AROR) AROR is derived by taking average of the monthly returns in a given financial year. The return for the tth month for the ith stock is defined as: Rit=ln(PtPt1) (Pt is the closing price for the tth month) Max Value [82], [83], [84], [85], [86], [87]
C12 Return on Net Worth (RONW) The return of equity (ROE) or RONW is calculated as RONW=Net IncomeShareholdersEquity A higher RONW is an indicator of the better utilization of the shareholder’s capital for generating income. Max %
C13 Earnings per Share (EPS) EPS is defined as the net profit divided by the number of outstanding common shares. A higher value of EPS gives an indication of higher earnings with respect to the share prices. Max Rs.
C14 Price to Book Value (P/B) The P/B ratio captures the market perception and is expressed in terms of the stock price divided by the book value per share. Max Times
C15 Turnover Indicator of liquidity of the stocks and is measured by dividing the number of shares traded and average number of common shares outstanding in a given period. Max Rs. Million
C16 Shares Traded The total number of shares of a specific company (i.e., equity stock) traded in a given period. Max Nos.
C17 Yield The amount of cash flow to the investor against the invested capital. Higher is the yield, better is the growth potential of the firm. Max %
C18 Alpha It is expressed as the average return of the stock/portfolio in excess of what is predicted by the CAPM. Hence, higher is the value better is the ability of the stock to beat the benchmark. Max Value
C19 Beta An indicator to capture the systematic risk. The value is calculated as Rit=α+βiRmt+eit
Where, Rmt is the market return at time t and α and βi are the intercept and slope respectively. Using the ordinary least square method, the beta value is calculated as
βi=Covar(Rit,Rmt)Var(Rmt)
Min Value

Aspect 2: Dividend payout capability

C21 Institutional Ownership (IO) % ownership by Non-promoters Maximize % [91], [92]
C22 Size of the Firm (S) Natural Log of total assets Maximize Value [93]
C23 Net Profit Margin (NPM) (Net Profit/Revenue)*100% Maximize % [94], [95]
C24 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (PBIT/Capital Employed)*100% Maximize % [97], [98]
C25 Sales Growth (SG) Natural Log of (Sales at t/Sales at (t 1)) Maximize Value [96]
C26 Market Cap/Enterprise Value (MCEV) Market capitalization/Enterprise Value Maximize Times [97], [98]
C27 Net Cash Flow (from operating activities) (NCF) Net amount of money being generated from regular business operations Maximize Rs. Million [97], [98]
C28 Leverage (L) Debt/PBITDA Minimize Times [95]

Aspect 3: Sales and operational performance

C31 Sales Growth (SG) Natural Log of (Sales at t/Sales at (t 1)) Max Value [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109]
C32 Return on Assets (ROA) Net income/total asset Max % [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109]
C33 Return on Working Capital (RWC) ((Op. Profit-tax)(current asset/total asset))/working capital Max Times [110]
C34 Operating Profit Margin (OPM) ratio of the earnings before income and taxes (i.e., a firm’s net operating income) to sales Max % [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109]
C35 Asset Turnover Ratio (ATR) Sales/total asset Max Times [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109]
C36 Net cash flow from operating activities (NCF) Net cash from operating activities. Max Rs. Million [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109]
C37 Cash to current liability (CCL) (cash + cash equivalents + marketable securities)/total current liabilities Max Times [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109]
C38 Net Working Capital Days (NWCD) Days account receivable + days inventory - days account payable Max Days [111], [112], [113], [114]
C39 Leverage (L) Debt/PBITDA Min Times [99], [100], [101], [102], [103], [104], [105], [106], [107], [108], [109]

4.4. FS

According to the definition given by the World Bank [115], FS is “….about resilience of financial systems to stress…..A stable financial system is capable of efficiently allocating resources, assessing and managing financial risks… dissipates financial imbalances that arise endogenously or as a result of significant adverse and unforeseen events..”

From the investment point of view, often the investors are concerned about the long-term wellbeing of the organizations and their stability at the market place. In other words, a stable firm is one that shows solvency under stress and safeguard the bankruptcy risk [116]. Hence, in this study we use Altman’s Z score as the indicator for financial stability wherein higher is the score stable is the organization [117], [118], [119], [120]. The Z score is calculated as:

Z=1.2X1+1.4X2+3.3X3+0.6X4+1.0X5 (1)

where,

X1= working capital/total assets

X2= retained earnings/total assets

X3= earnings before interest and taxes/total assets

X4= market value equity/book value of total liabilities

X5= sales/total assets, and

The Z value of 2.99 denotes the non-bankruptcy condition while below 1.81 indicates the bankruptcy. The zone between 1.81 and 2.99 is termed as the grey area [121].

Altman’s Z has been widely used in assessing the stability and predicting the bankruptcy risk of the firms. In what follows are some of the recent cases in the context of manufacturing organizations. For example, Swalih et al. [122] used Altman’s Z to evaluate the financial health of Indian automobile companies listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and confirmed that stability of the firms against financial distress in short to medium term. For evaluating the performance of a group of socially responsible firms (during 2015–2019) listed in BSE India, the authors [123] utilized MCDM based approach wherein Altman’s Z was calculated to gauge the bankruptcy profile of the organizations. Sareen and Sharma [124] recognized the importance of noting the signs of financial distress at early stage of investment decision making. The authors calculated Altman’s Z score to predict the financial soundness vis-à-vis stock prices for Indian automobile firms under the influence of financial crisis and implementation of goods and services tax (GST). A continuous assessment of bankruptcy risk and prediction of future state of financial stability is of utmost importance for the firms under the rapid changes in the external business environment and uncertainty prevailing over the market especially in the country like India. Siekelova et al. [125] used Altman’s Z score based calculations (using a window of five years) to predict the financial health of 105 Romanian manufacturing firms. Manaseer and Al-Oshaibat [126] examined the validity of the Altman’s Z score based model for prediction of financial distress for a sample of insurance firms listed on Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) during 2011–2016.

4.5. ES

Over the years the area corporate sustainability has garnered extensive interest of the researchers. There have been many models that tried to put forth several dimensions to assess the corporate sustainability. In a nutshell, sustainability is aimed to achieve an inclusive development of the triple bottom lines such as people, planet and profit [127]. In this work from the point of view of investment decision making, financial sustainability or ES is considered. ES is obtained through organization’s focus on achieving long-term growth through financial solidity. In this regard, Tobin’s Q is considered by several researchers as the indicator for long-term growth and economic sustainability. For instance, Fu et al. [128] confirmed the positive causal association between a higher Tobin’s Q and better future operating performance through a study on US firms. Gharaibeh and Qader [129] treated Tobin’s Q as a measure of firm value and reported a positive association with market capitalization, profitability, business growth and solvency. Singh et al. [130] utilized Tobin’s Q as a measure of corporate performance. Hence, we consider Tobin’s Q as a measure of ES in this work wherein higher is the value of Q, better is the sustainability and log-term prospect of the organization. The Tobin’s Q value is calculated [131], [132] follows.

Tobin’s Q = (Market value of equity + Book value of debts)/Book value of total assets

5. Methods

In this section we briefly discuss the methods used in the current work. The present paper utilizes a combined LOPCOW and EDAS framework for performance based ranking of the firms. To aggregate the year wise ranking results, we use a widely applied MCDM aggregation algorithm such as BC.

5.1. LOPCOW method

The procedural steps [37] are described below briefly:

Step 1. Construction of the normalized decision matrix

Let, X=xijm×n be the decision-matrix (m is the number of alternatives and n is the number of criteria). The decision matrix is expressed as

X=xijm×n=x11x1nxm1xmn (2)

where m and n are having usual meaning as given above Then by using the linear max–min type normalization scheme the elements of the normalized decision matrix R=rijm×n are calculated as

rij=xijxminjxmaxjxminj(when jj+, desired direction: maximizing) (3)
rij=xmaxjxijxmaxjxminj(when jj, desired direction: minimizing) (4)

Step 2. Find the Percentage Value (PV) for each criterion

The PV for each criterion is given by

Pj=|lni=1mrij2mσ.100| (5)

σ denotes the standard deviation. This step helps to reduce the gaps among the criteria weights.

Step 3. Calculation of the criteria weights

The weight for the jth criterion is given by

wj=Pjj=1nPj (6)

where, j=1nwj=1 (i.e., sum of the weights of all criteria = 1)

Table 5.

Decision matrix for stock performance (FY 2013–14).

Criteria
C11
C12
C13
C14
C15
C16
C17
C18
C19
Alternatives (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) ()
A1 0.1373 47.48 76.73 2.72 2.71 5295 1.25 1.65 0.67
A2 −0.0010 29.91 10.20 6.13 1.32 6043 2.99 0.32 0.63
A3 −0.0126 0.74 0.28 2.59 2.01 20 615 3.09 0.36 1.22
A4 0.0396 45.85 28.70 11.79 4.81 5737 1.01 0.43 0.35
A5 −0.1358 22.39 5.51 1.91 6.78 132 047 0.98 0.70 1.27
A6 0.0081 86.91 34.81 31.14 7.17 5216 1.97 0.45 0.23
A7 0.0225 38.84 3.86 16.46 4.61 25 714 0.89 0.49 0.30
A8 −0.0086 −0.22 −0.16 1.85 3.10 23 198 0.00 0.14 0.96
A9 −0.0269 37.12 13.95 10.63 5.41 12 374 1.92 0.59 0.78
A10 −0.0635 3.37 0.20 0.79 0.30 63 634 0.00 −0.30 0.27
A11 −0.0016 6.43 16.27 5.58 3.42 1720 0.76 0.35 0.42
A12 0.0128 16.56 175.58 2.86 1.06 330 1.25 0.53 0.62
A13 0.0074 19.40 16.49 9.59 26.56 31 579 0.59 0.73 0.38
A14 0.0888 49.30 7.01 16.37 1.28 4693 1.06 1.08 0.61
A15 0.0215 117.29 16.13 39.85 37.50 62 231 1.91 0.36 0.30
A16 0.0111 35.96 10.95 10.71 91.91 259 696 1.49 0.47 0.34
A17 0.0189 13.11 5.81 4.28 4.40 21 154 1.68 0.73 0.70
A18 0.0681 29.24 11.29 1.14 5.78 117 577 1.62 0.76 1.46
A19 −0.0010 29.51 9.07 6.85 1.63 7713 1.91 0.47 0.27
A20 0.0073 53.43 111.93 18.37 14.71 2945 0.72 0.46 0.16
A21 0.0196 33.87 80.24 10.21 9.43 2979 0.78 0.52 0.42
A22 0.0094 8.08 4.53 2.50 31.07 213 970 0.55 0.20 0.66
A23 0.0132 9.80 3.84 3.63 106.43 708 307 1.43 0.26 0.73
A24 0.0137 14.20 8.24 13.31 5.86 7120 0.09 0.79 0.91
A25 0.0113 31.14 23.19 5.97 1.71 3440 1.21 0.70 0.84
A26 −0.0265 9.03 7.69 1.01 11.00 124 420 1.12 0.40 1.18
A27 0.0595 47.04 26.31 10.46 10.50 14 358 1.15 1.88 0.76
A28 0.0019 33.73 8.53 9.23 80.35 304 394 0.80 0.62 0.74
A29 0.0631 11.07 5.15 3.33 44.23 272 910 0.99 0.17 1.49
A30 0.0040 18.03 9.46 4.03 2.37 10 267 0.00 0.71 1.02

5.2. EDAS method

The steps to carry out the comparative ranking using the EDAS method [27] is given below.

Step 1. Formation of the decision matrix

X=xijm×n=x11x1nxm1xmn

Table 6.

Normalized decision matrix for stock performance (FY 2013–14).

Alternatives Criteria
C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17 C18 C19
A1 1.0000 0.4059 0.4375 0.0494 0.0227 0.0070 0.4045 0.8945 0.6165
A2 0.4937 0.2564 0.0590 0.1367 0.0096 0.0081 0.9676 0.2844 0.6466
A3 0.4513 0.0082 0.0025 0.0461 0.0161 0.0287 1.0000 0.3028 0.2030
A4 0.6423 0.3921 0.1642 0.2816 0.0425 0.0076 0.3269 0.3349 0.8571
A5 0.0000 0.1924 0.0323 0.0287 0.0611 0.1860 0.3172 0.4587 0.1654
A6 0.5269 0.7415 0.1990 0.7770 0.0647 0.0069 0.6375 0.3440 0.9474
A7 0.5797 0.3324 0.0229 0.4012 0.0406 0.0359 0.2880 0.3624 0.8947
A8 0.4657 0.0000 0.0000 0.0271 0.0264 0.0323 0.0000 0.2018 0.3985
A9 0.3988 0.3178 0.0803 0.2519 0.0481 0.0170 0.6214 0.4083 0.5338
A10 0.2648 0.0306 0.0020 0.0000 0.0000 0.0894 0.0000 0.0000 0.9173
A11 0.4916 0.0566 0.0935 0.1226 0.0294 0.0020 0.2460 0.2982 0.8045
A12 0.5441 0.1428 1.0000 0.0530 0.0072 0.0000 0.4045 0.3807 0.6541
A13 0.5244 0.1670 0.0947 0.2253 0.2474 0.0441 0.1909 0.4725 0.8346
A14 0.8225 0.4214 0.0408 0.3989 0.0092 0.0062 0.3430 0.6330 0.6617
A15 0.5762 1.0000 0.0927 1.0000 0.3505 0.0874 0.6181 0.3028 0.8947
A16 0.5378 0.3079 0.0632 0.2540 0.8632 0.3663 0.4822 0.3532 0.8647
A17 0.5666 0.1134 0.0340 0.0893 0.0386 0.0294 0.5437 0.4725 0.5940
A18 0.7465 0.2507 0.0652 0.0090 0.0516 0.1656 0.5243 0.4862 0.0226
A19 0.4935 0.2530 0.0525 0.1551 0.0125 0.0104 0.6181 0.3532 0.9173
A20 0.5239 0.4566 0.6378 0.4501 0.1358 0.0037 0.2330 0.3486 1.0000
A21 0.5692 0.2901 0.4575 0.2412 0.0860 0.0037 0.2524 0.3761 0.8045
A22 0.5316 0.0706 0.0267 0.0438 0.2899 0.3018 0.1780 0.2294 0.6241
A23 0.5456 0.0853 0.0228 0.0727 1.0000 1.0000 0.4628 0.2569 0.5714
A24 0.5475 0.1227 0.0478 0.3205 0.0524 0.0096 0.0291 0.5000 0.4361
A25 0.5386 0.2669 0.1329 0.1326 0.0133 0.0044 0.3916 0.4587 0.4887
A26 0.4004 0.0787 0.0447 0.0056 0.1008 0.1753 0.3625 0.3211 0.2331
A27 0.7152 0.4022 0.1506 0.2476 0.0961 0.0198 0.3722 1.0000 0.5489
A28 0.5043 0.2889 0.0494 0.2161 0.7543 0.4295 0.2589 0.4220 0.5639
A29 0.7284 0.0961 0.0302 0.0650 0.4139 0.3850 0.3204 0.2156 0.0000
A30 0.5120 0.1553 0.0547 0.0829 0.0195 0.0140 0.0000 0.4633 0.3534

Step 2. Find out the average solution

The average solution is found as

xj(avg)=1m(i=1mxij);j=1,2,,n (7)

Step 3. Calculation of PDA and NDA

The PDA and NDA are calculated as follows

PDA:

PDAij=Max(0,(xijxj(avg)))xj(avg);jj+(maximizing)Max(0,(xj(avg)xij))xj(avg);jj(minimizing) (8)

NDA:

NDAij=Max(0,(xj(avg)xij))xj(avg);jj+(maximizing)Max(0,(xijxj(avg)))xj(avg);jj(minimizing) (9)

Step 4. Find out the weighted sum of PDA (SP) and NDA values (SN) for all the alternatives

The weighted sums of PDA and NDA, termed as SP and SN are calculated as sum products and given below

SPi=j=1nwjPDAij (10)
SNi=j=1nwjNDAij (11)

Here, wj is the weight of the jth criterion.

Step 5. Find out the normalized weighted sum of PDA (NSP) and NDA values (NSN)

For weighted sum of PDAs:

NSPi=SPiMax(SPi)i (12)

For weighted sum of NDAs:

NSNi=1SNiMax(SNi)i (13)

Step 6. Calculate the appraisal scores (AS) of the alternatives

The appraisal score of the ith alternative is computed as

ASi=12(NSPi+NSNi)Here, 0ASi1 (14)

The alternatives are ranked as per their appraisal scores in descending order.

5.3. Borda Count (BC) method

BC is a widely used for aggregating the preference based rankings [133]. The procedural steps are given below as described in [134]

Step 1. Obtain the ranking of the alternatives based on preferences of the various decision makers or methods

Step 2. Find out the preference based point of each alternative equal to the number of alternatives succeeding the present alternative. Therefore, first ranked alternative shall receive (m 1) points, the second one shall get (m 2) points and so on.

Step 3. Find out the sum of the points obtained by each alternative

Step 4. Order the alternatives based on the total points in descending order.

5.4. Copeland Method (CM)

The CM starts after the BC as an extended and modified version. The procedural steps are described below as [134]

Step 1. Calculation of the win score of each alternative with respect to others

Step 2. Calculation of the loss score of each alternative equal to the score obtained by the alternatives in the first stage subtracted from majority wins’ score

Step 3. Find out the final score for each alternative equal to the difference between the win and loss scores.

Step 4. Order the alternatives based on their final scores in descending order.

6. Results

In this section the findings of the step by step data analysis using the combined LOPCOW-EDAS framework are highlighted. First, we present the results of the analysis of stock performance. As mentioned earlier, the decision matrices (FY 2013–14 to FY 2020–21) are given in the supplementary MS Excel file attached to this paper. As a sample, the decision matrix for evaluation of the stock performance is given in Table 5.

Now using the procedural steps of LOPCOW method (see expressions (3) to (6)) the criteria weights are calculated. The normalized decision matrix for stock performance for FY 2013–14 is given in Table 6.

For example, the calculation of the normalized values for C11 and C19 are shown below For the criterion C11 the maximum and minimum values are given as

xmax1=max(x11,x21....xm1)=0.137xmin1=min(x11,x21....xm1)=0.136(Here, m=30)

Therefore, the difference is calculated as

xmax1xmin1=0.137(0.136)=0.273

Similarly, for C19 the values are

xmax9=max(x19,x29....xm9)=1.490xmin9=min(x19,x29....xm9)=0.160xmax9xmin9=1.4900.160=1.330

Now using the above-mentioned values, some of the calculations for finding out the normalized values are as given below

r11=x11xmin1xmax1xmin1=0.137(0.136)0.273=1.00r131=x131xmin1xmax1xmin1=0.007(0.136)0.273=0.524r99=xmax9x99xmax9xmin9=1.4900.7801.330=0.534

In this way, all other calculations are done to arrive at the normalized decision matrix for stock performance for FY 2013–14 (see Table 6).

Next, using the normalized decision matrix, the criteria weights are calculated using the expressions (5), (6). Examples of calculations are given below

P1=|lni=1mr131230σ.100|=ln(0.56680.1707)=120.03
w1=P1j=19Pj=120.03466.196=0.2575
w9=P9j=19Pj=86.1713466.196=0.1848

In this way, the criteria weights for stock performance for FY 2013–14 and all other FYs are calculated. Table 7 provides the summary of the criteria weight calculations and Table 8 shows the year wise criteria weights.

Table 7.

Year wise calculations for criteria weights (Stock performance).

FY Values C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17 C18 C19
FY 2013–14 Mean square 0.3213 0.1108 0.0659 0.0921 0.0941 0.0558 0.2029 0.1932 0.4376
SD 0.1707 0.2154 0.2191 0.2266 0.2640 0.2093 0.2462 0.1900 0.2794
PV 120.0313 43.5296 15.8580 29.2398 15.0061 12.0794 60.3993 83.8811 86.1713
Wj 0.2575 0.0934 0.0340 0.0627 0.0322 0.0259 0.1296 0.1799 0.1848

FY 2014–15 Mean square 0.5531 0.1515 0.1002 0.1048 0.0360 0.0384 0.1556 0.1293 0.5098
SD 0.1885 0.2009 0.2571 0.2262 0.1832 0.1888 0.2340 0.1962 0.2827
PV 137.2718 66.1469 20.8005 35.8097 3.4896 3.7943 52.2041 60.5688 92.6395
Wj 0.2904 0.1399 0.0440 0.0758 0.0074 0.0080 0.1104 0.1281 0.1960

FY 2015–16 Mean square 0.3187 0.2082 0.0942 0.1714 0.0422 0.0450 0.1899 0.1198 0.5113
SD 0.1845 0.2080 0.2228 0.2537 0.1869 0.1954 0.2545 0.1957 0.2808
PV 111.8184 78.5812 32.0544 48.9709 9.4575 8.1926 53.8030 57.0345 93.4594
Wj 0.2266 0.1593 0.0650 0.0993 0.0192 0.0166 0.1091 0.1156 0.1894

FY 2016–17 Mean square 0.2989 0.2633 0.0873 0.1659 0.1020 0.0668 0.1120 0.1693 0.5274
SD 0.2030 0.2174 0.2254 0.2416 0.2624 0.2318 0.2358 0.2333 0.2449
PV 99.0550 85.8899 27.0595 52.2429 19.6315 10.8815 35.0415 56.7218 108.6903
Wj 0.2000 0.1734 0.0546 0.1055 0.0396 0.0220 0.0708 0.1145 0.2195

FY 2017–18 Mean square 0.2327 0.2559 0.1194 0.1396 0.0751 0.0768 0.0941 0.1693 0.5274
SD 0.2127 0.1909 0.2619 0.2496 0.2292 0.2499 0.2246 0.2333 0.2449
PV 81.9083 97.4805 27.7131 40.3727 17.8739 10.3230 31.1785 56.7218 108.6903
Wj 0.1734 0.2064 0.0587 0.0855 0.0378 0.0219 0.0660 0.1201 0.2301

FY 2018–19 Mean square 0.6183 0.1791 0.0741 0.1186 0.0477 0.0500 0.0844 0.1074 0.5042
SD 0.2105 0.1862 0.2076 0.2521 0.2078 0.2059 0.2010 0.2061 0.2364
PV 131.8125 82.1021 27.1173 31.1715 5.0471 8.2205 36.8093 46.3480 109.9958
Wj 0.2754 0.1715 0.0567 0.0651 0.0105 0.0172 0.0769 0.0968 0.2298

FY 2019–20 Mean square 0.5064 0.1717 0.0667 0.0905 0.0546 0.0415 0.1361 0.3928 0.4552
SD 0.1982 0.2062 0.2019 0.2491 0.2126 0.1965 0.2645 0.2352 0.2631
PV 127.8145 69.7626 24.6094 18.8861 9.5149 3.5664 33.2761 98.0092 94.1707
Wj 0.2665 0.1455 0.0513 0.0394 0.0198 0.0074 0.0694 0.2044 0.1963

FY 2020–21 Mean square 0.2284 0.1974 0.1049 0.0876 0.0696 0.0597 0.0670 0.3862 0.4183
SD 0.2358 0.1862 0.2205 0.2241 0.2309 0.2344 0.2173 0.2350 0.2893
PV 70.6451 86.9628 38.4570 27.8116 13.3597 4.1427 17.4762 97.2287 80.4578
Wj 0.1618 0.1992 0.0881 0.0637 0.0306 0.0095 0.0400 0.2227 0.1843

Table 8.

Year wise criteria weights (Stock performance).

Criteria C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17 C18 C19
2013–14 0.2575 0.0934 0.0340 0.0627 0.0322 0.0259 0.1296 0.1799 0.1848
2014–15 0.2904 0.1399 0.0440 0.0758 0.0074 0.0080 0.1104 0.1281 0.1960
2015–16 0.2266 0.1593 0.0650 0.0993 0.0192 0.0166 0.1091 0.1156 0.1894
2016–17 0.2000 0.1734 0.0546 0.1055 0.0396 0.0220 0.0708 0.1145 0.2195
2017–18 0.1734 0.2064 0.0587 0.0855 0.0378 0.0219 0.0660 0.1201 0.2301
2018–19 0.2754 0.1715 0.0567 0.0651 0.0105 0.0172 0.0769 0.0968 0.2298
2019–20 0.2665 0.1455 0.0513 0.0394 0.0198 0.0074 0.0694 0.2044 0.1963
2020–21 0.1618 0.1992 0.0881 0.0637 0.0306 0.0095 0.0400 0.2227 0.1843

Next, we move to rank the alternatives based on their performances using EDAS method. The procedural steps are defined by the expressions (7) to (14). For example,

x1(avg)=130(i=130xij)=0.137+(0.001)+(0.013)+0.040++0.00430=0.01206
x9(avg)=130(i=130xij)=0.670+0.630+1.220+0.350++1.02030=0.690
PDA11=Max(0,(x11x1(avg)))x1(avg)=Max(0,(0.1370.01206))0.01206=0.124940.01206=10.360
NDA11=Max(0,(x1(avg)x11))x1(avg)=Max(0,(0.012060.137))0.01206=0.0000.01206=0.000
PDA89=Max(0,(x9(avg)x89))x9(avg)=Max(0,(0.6900.960))0.690=0.0000.01206=0.000

It may be noted that criterion 9 is a non-beneficial (i.e., minimizing effect) one.

Proceeding further we calculate SPi, SNi, NSPi, NSNi and ASi values which are recorded in Table 9.

Table 9.

Ranking based on stock performance (FY 2013–14).

Alternatives SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 3.1590 0.0949 1.0000 0.9725 0.9863 1
A2 0.2165 0.4501 0.0685 0.8697 0.4691 21
A3 0.2115 0.9504 0.0670 0.7248 0.3959 25
A4 0.7557 0.1091 0.2392 0.9684 0.6038 7
A5 0.0577 3.4534 0.0183 0.0000 0.0091 30
A6 0.5613 0.1654 0.1777 0.9521 0.5649 8
A7 0.4092 0.1261 0.1296 0.9635 0.5465 9
A8 0.0000 1.0022 0.0000 0.7098 0.3549 27
A9 0.1246 0.9150 0.0394 0.7350 0.3872 26
A10 0.1125 2.2291 0.0356 0.3545 0.1951 29
A11 0.0723 0.5644 0.0229 0.8366 0.4297 24
A12 0.2537 0.1521 0.0803 0.9560 0.5181 14
A13 0.1561 0.2236 0.0494 0.9352 0.4923 16
A14 1.9367 0.0911 0.6131 0.9736 0.7933 2
A15 0.9167 0.0836 0.2902 0.9758 0.6330 5
A16 0.3518 0.0711 0.1114 0.9794 0.5454 10
A17 0.2545 0.1570 0.0806 0.9545 0.5176 15
A18 1.3176 0.3032 0.4171 0.9122 0.6646 4
A19 0.1938 0.4003 0.0613 0.8841 0.4727 20
A20 0.4048 0.2166 0.1281 0.9373 0.5327 12
A21 0.3339 0.0984 0.1057 0.9715 0.5386 11
A22 0.0738 0.3836 0.0234 0.8889 0.4561 22
A23 0.4112 0.2367 0.1302 0.9314 0.5308 13
A24 0.1379 0.2955 0.0436 0.9144 0.4790 19
A25 0.0498 0.1325 0.0158 0.9616 0.4887 18
A26 0.0132 1.1689 0.0042 0.6615 0.3328 28
A27 1.4968 0.0559 0.4738 0.9838 0.7288 3
A28 0.2154 0.2935 0.0682 0.9150 0.4916 17
A29 1.1988 0.4856 0.3795 0.8594 0.6194 6
A30 0.0452 0.5327 0.0143 0.8458 0.4300 23

In the similar way we rank the alternatives based on their stock performance for other FYs (refer Appendix A). We then apply the steps of the BC method and the Copeland method to figure out the aggregated ranking of the alternatives from FY 2013–14 to FY 2019–20. Table 10, Table 11, Table 12 provides the summary of the year wise ranking of the stock performances and the aggregated ranking.

Table 10.

Summary of year wise ranking based on stock performance.

Alternatives Rank
Rank_2020–21
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Aggregate
A1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 1 13
A2 21 6 6 8 9 4 21 8 23
A3 25 10 10 13 28 28 24 23 20
A4 7 4 23 6 6 5 11 4 5
A5 30 13 22 7 26 18 9 19 22
A6 8 5 2 10 10 19 18 6 4
A7 9 16 15 16 11 25 25 16 16
A8 27 27 25 25 29 11 28 29 21
A9 26 9 14 17 21 2 17 15 19
A10 29 19 28 18 12 13 1 18 30
A11 24 12 13 20 4 9 22 13 14
A12 14 30 29 30 30 30 10 30 29
A13 16 23 26 19 27 6 20 22 18
A14 2 21 24 5 8 15 14 10 7
A15 5 3 16 2 3 16 5 2 8
A16 10 15 18 15 19 23 4 14 15
A17 15 24 20 14 18 3 8 12 24
A18 4 11 27 4 17 7 2 7 26
A19 20 18 3 12 14 17 16 11 12
A20 12 7 5 11 7 21 3 5 1
A21 11 8 9 3 2 10 12 3 2
A22 22 29 21 24 13 27 7 26 3
A23 13 28 7 28 23 12 30 24 6
A24 19 25 8 29 25 29 26 28 25
A25 18 17 4 21 16 24 29 20 17
A26 28 20 30 26 20 14 13 27 28
A27 3 2 12 27 15 8 19 9 27
A28 17 22 11 23 5 26 15 17 9
A29 6 26 19 22 24 22 23 25 10
A30 23 14 17 9 22 20 27 21 11

Table 11.

Calculation of the aggregated ranking (BC method) for stock performance.

Alternatives Rank based number
Borda count Aggregated rank
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20
A1 29 29 29 29 29 29 24 198 1
A2 9 24 24 22 21 26 9 135 8
A3 5 20 20 17 2 2 6 72 23
A4 23 26 7 24 24 25 19 148 4
A5 0 17 8 23 4 12 21 85 19
A6 22 25 28 20 20 11 12 138 6
A7 21 14 15 14 19 5 5 93 16
A8 3 3 5 5 1 19 2 38 29
A9 4 21 16 13 9 28 13 104 15
A10 1 11 2 12 18 17 29 90 18
A11 6 18 17 10 26 21 8 106 13
A12 16 0 1 0 0 0 20 37 30
A13 14 7 4 11 3 24 10 73 22
A14 28 9 6 25 22 15 16 121 10
A15 25 27 14 28 27 14 25 160 2
A16 20 15 12 15 11 7 26 106 14
A17 15 6 10 16 12 27 22 108 12
A18 26 19 3 26 13 23 28 138 7
A19 10 12 27 18 16 13 14 110 11
A20 18 23 25 19 23 9 27 144 5
A21 19 22 21 27 28 20 18 155 3
A22 8 1 9 6 17 3 23 67 26
A23 17 2 23 2 7 18 0 69 24
A24 11 5 22 1 5 1 4 49 28
A25 12 13 26 9 14 6 1 81 20
A26 2 10 0 4 10 16 17 59 27
A27 27 28 18 3 15 22 11 124 9
A28 13 8 19 7 25 4 15 91 17
A29 24 4 11 8 6 8 7 68 25
A30 7 16 13 21 8 10 3 78 21

Sum 3045

Table 12.

Calculation of the aggregated ranking (Copeland method) for stock performance.

Alternatives Wins Losses Final score Final rank Alternatives Wins Losses Final score Final rank
A1 198 2847 −2649 1 A16 106 2939 −2833 14
A2 135 2910 −2775 8 A17 108 2937 −2829 12
A3 72 2973 −2901 23 A18 138 2907 −2769 7
A4 148 2897 −2749 4 A19 110 2935 −2825 11
A5 85 2960 −2875 19 A20 144 2901 −2757 5
A6 138 2907 −2769 6 A21 155 2890 −2735 3
A7 93 2952 −2859 16 A22 67 2978 −2911 26
A8 38 3007 −2969 29 A23 69 2976 −2907 24
A9 104 2941 −2837 15 A24 49 2996 −2947 28
A10 90 2955 −2865 18 A25 81 2964 −2883 20
A11 106 2939 −2833 13 A26 59 2986 −2927 27
A12 37 3008 −2971 30 A27 124 2921 −2797 9
A13 73 2972 −2899 22 A28 91 2954 −2863 17
A14 121 2924 −2803 10 A29 68 2977 −2909 25
A15 160 2885 −2725 2 A30 78 2967 −2889 21

Next, we move to find out the DPC of the alternatives year wise and rank them. Proceeding in the same way as described above, the comparative rankings of the alternatives are derived. Table 13 exhibits the year wise criteria weights and Table 14 provides the summary of the year wise ranking of the alternatives as per their DPC.

Table 13.

Year wise criteria weights (for finding out DPC).

Criteria C21 C22 C23 C24 C25 C26 C27 C28
2013–14 0.0597 0.1226 0.0771 0.0615 0.1831 0.1532 0.1489 0.1940
2014–15 0.0986 0.1891 0.2256 0.1537 0.1479 0.1272 0.0394 0.0186
2015–16 0.0596 0.1148 0.1515 0.0984 0.1533 0.1779 0.0165 0.2279
2016–17 0.0749 0.1216 0.1643 0.1411 0.1908 0.0074 0.0241 0.2759
2017–18 0.0601 0.1060 0.1818 0.1124 0.1553 0.0019 0.0990 0.2835
2018–19 0.0564 0.0952 0.1225 0.0765 0.2130 0.2299 0.0199 0.1867
2019–20 0.0751 0.1072 0.1788 0.0840 0.0919 0.2119 0.0157 0.2355
2020–21 0.0459 0.0624 0.1604 0.0734 0.1653 0.1774 0.1359 0.1792

Table 14.

Year wise ranking of the Alternatives (based on DPC).

Alternatives Rank
Rank_2020–21
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Aggregate
A1 3 8 2 7 2 26 9 3 21
A2 12 7 11 6 11 10 8 4 8
A3 27 29 30 30 30 25 29 30 27
A4 10 14 7 9 14 15 13 9 14
A5 22 17 21 18 12 27 10 19 13
A6 6 4 10 10 19 19 11 8 7
A7 8 11 17 19 18 12 14 13 11
A8 9 1 9 27 28 29 28 21 28
A9 13 5 12 14 21 22 21 15 15
A10 29 30 27 29 5 13 1 23 5
A11 24 22 23 17 23 16 25 26 19
A12 16 25 26 12 25 30 7 25 17
A13 11 15 19 20 17 9 16 14 16
A14 20 26 5 11 26 20 24 22 25
A15 2 3 4 4 3 5 5 2 2
A16 1 2 3 2 1 6 3 1 1
A17 19 19 20 21 27 23 27 27 24
A18 14 20 16 25 22 3 15 16 12
A19 15 9 13 16 9 11 18 11 9
A20 5 13 29 5 10 8 6 6 3
A21 7 12 14 8 15 2 12 5 10
A22 21 27 1 23 6 1 19 12 26
A23 17 21 22 26 20 24 4 24 29
A24 23 24 6 24 8 17 26 20 20
A25 18 6 8 3 4 14 30 10 30
A26 30 28 25 28 29 4 20 29 4
A27 4 10 18 1 13 28 2 7 6
A28 26 16 28 15 7 7 22 17 22
A29 28 23 24 22 24 18 23 28 18
A30 25 18 15 13 16 21 17 18 23

In the similar fashion we derive the criteria weights and appraisal scores for ranking the alternatives based on their SOP (see Table 15, Table 16)

Table 15.

Year wise criteria weights for ranking based on SOP.

Criteria C31 C32 C33 C34 C35 C36 C37 C38 C39
2013–14 0.1780 0.1026 0.1024 0.0531 0.1157 0.1449 0.0195 0.0952 0.1886
2014–15 0.1229 0.1877 0.2405 0.1116 0.1506 0.0327 0.0213 0.1171 0.0154
2015–16 0.1446 0.1232 0.2618 0.0521 0.1073 0.0155 0.0046 0.0759 0.2150
2016–17 0.1832 0.1548 0.0397 0.0728 0.1445 0.0231 0.0137 0.1033 0.2649
2017–18 0.1272 0.1094 0.2021 0.0536 0.1064 0.0811 0.0100 0.0778 0.2323
2018–19 0.2527 0.1224 0.0683 0.0675 0.1079 0.0236 0.0400 0.0959 0.2215
2019–20 0.0852 0.1181 0.2156 0.1292 0.1010 0.0145 0.0392 0.0791 0.2182
2020–21 0.1709 0.1126 0.0970 0.1591 0.0592 0.1404 0.0236 0.0521 0.1852

Table 16.

Year wise ranking of the Alternatives (based on SOP).

Alternatives Rank
Rank_2020–21
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Aggregate
A1 3 2 5 5 5 18 9 3 17
A2 10 9 11 10 6 13 14 7 16
A3 26 27 28 27 27 22 28 30 20
A4 7 4 8 11 9 15 1 4 27
A5 13 17 6 13 19 17 8 14 13
A6 24 30 29 3 30 19 29 27 11
A7 11 7 10 22 8 14 17 10 15
A8 28 24 17 30 26 29 27 29 8
A9 14 10 27 21 28 25 16 21 19
A10 29 29 30 29 20 12 6 26 3
A11 21 18 21 14 4 16 18 18 21
A12 8 12 18 2 17 30 2 11 12
A13 22 1 2 25 29 8 21 17 23
A14 17 26 15 7 25 20 24 19 25
A15 2 5 3 9 3 6 10 2 4
A16 1 3 12 4 7 5 5 1 1
A17 18 28 25 24 2 27 23 24 28
A18 9 13 13 15 16 1 11 8 9
A19 15 15 14 16 10 10 12 13 10
A20 6 20 26 12 15 7 4 12 2
A21 5 11 16 17 1 4 13 6 7
A22 16 25 9 20 12 2 15 15 24
A23 19 22 23 23 24 23 7 22 29
A24 12 8 1 19 11 11 19 9 14
A25 20 14 22 8 22 26 30 23 30
A26 30 19 4 28 21 9 26 20 5
A27 4 6 7 1 14 28 3 5 6
A28 23 16 24 6 13 3 20 16 18
A29 27 23 19 26 23 21 25 28 22
A30 25 21 20 18 18 24 22 25 26

We now use the expression (1) to calculate the Altman’s Z scores for the alternatives year wise to find out their financial stability (see Table 17). It may be noted that higher is the value of Z, better is the financial stability of the company or alternative. Hence, we sort the Z values in descending manner and find out the comparative ranking of the alternatives for each FY. After that we apply the ranking aggregation methods such as BC and Copeland. Table 18 provides the summary of the comparative positions of the alternatives in terms of their FS.

Table 17.

Year wise Altman’s Z scores of the alternatives.

Altman’s Z score
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21
A1 17.88 22.187 22.999 17.097 16.038 21.038 18.425 17.452
A2 19.31 19.307 16.790 15.105 13.495 12.147 13.715 14.884
A3 16.82 10.115 10.810 10.744 9.590 8.362 6.680 3.742
A4 48.77 54.687 52.529 41.133 34.999 20.501 15.783 14.809
A5 19.08 18.936 18.626 21.288 10.012 7.025 7.217 7.433
A6 14.73 13.273 11.082 10.238 8.796 8.761 7.007 7.664
A7 33.94 30.356 28.420 24.857 37.463 35.578 37.229 27.739
A8 2.37 2.510 2.656 3.543 2.680 2.982 2.619 4.937
A9 25.26 38.578 13.772 18.004 21.014 24.585 19.295 22.209
A10 2.90 1.007 1.501 1.656 1.896 1.908 1.325 −0.333
A11 25.61 23.632 21.951 22.361 22.074 25.463 24.364 18.607
A12 7.18 7.212 8.494 9.624 8.218 5.864 4.836 4.577
A13 23.14 22.919 17.583 16.117 14.743 14.089 14.838 14.867
A14 20.23 16.594 15.515 12.374 8.869 10.120 8.478 7.638
A15 38.36 47.578 43.363 37.001 36.199 33.355 17.639 18.058
A16 17.93 26.567 24.622 20.984 19.483 20.747 18.265 17.315
A17 4.30 4.651 4.749 4.630 5.585 5.065 5.714 5.568
A18 3.77 3.703 3.883 4.217 4.260 3.858 4.975 5.925
A19 25.96 43.630 46.471 41.240 32.358 33.082 29.498 29.429
A20 37.41 33.123 30.986 28.683 25.655 22.452 20.851 20.391
A21 55.39 40.558 54.699 44.360 45.699 40.957 42.255 32.928
A22 7.87 7.788 6.131 7.503 9.161 11.770 9.878 11.011
A23 17.56 42.597 64.968 61.394 72.446 33.943 19.343 18.154
A24 13.92 15.047 13.681 14.226 15.170 14.481 14.284 12.719
A25 76.08 197.495 122.599 120.874 3.797 3.818 60.676 64.858
A26 3.85 3.671 2.821 2.954 2.732 2.956 3.659 3.077
A27 43.73 38.618 37.833 28.487 28.075 27.399 25.423 24.376
A28 41.29 26.878 30.213 29.847 23.464 19.753 15.487 13.021
A29 9.54 9.453 8.047 7.501 7.217 6.769 7.042 6.002
A30 15.95 14.256 11.173 11.332 10.407 9.251 7.805 8.075

Table 18.

Comparative year wise ranking of the Alternatives based on FS.

Alternatives Rank
Rank_2020–21
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Final
A1 17 15 12 15 13 10 10 14 11
A2 14 16 16 17 16 16 17 16 13
A3 19 22 22 21 19 21 24 21 28
A4 3 2 4 5 5 12 13 5 15
A5 15 17 14 12 18 22 21 17 22
A6 21 21 21 22 22 20 23 22 20
A7 8 10 10 10 3 2 3 7 4
A8 30 29 29 28 29 28 29 29 26
A9 11 8 18 14 11 8 9 12 6
A10 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
A11 10 13 13 11 10 7 6 11 8
A12 25 25 23 23 23 24 27 25 27
A13 12 14 15 16 15 15 15 15 14
A14 13 18 17 19 21 18 19 19 21
A15 6 3 6 6 4 4 12 4 10
A16 16 12 11 13 12 11 11 13 12
A17 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 26 25
A18 28 27 27 27 26 26 26 27 24
A19 9 4 5 4 6 5 4 2 3
A20 7 9 8 8 8 9 7 8 7
A21 2 6 3 3 2 1 2 1 2
A22 24 24 25 24 20 17 18 23 18
A23 18 5 2 2 1 3 8 3 9
A24 22 19 19 18 14 14 16 18 17
A25 1 1 1 1 27 27 1 9 1
A26 27 28 28 29 28 29 28 28 29
A27 4 7 7 9 7 6 5 6 5
A28 5 11 9 7 9 13 14 10 16
A29 23 23 24 25 24 23 22 24 23
A30 20 20 20 20 17 19 20 20 19

We move forward to calculate the Tobin’s Q values for the alternatives year wise which is seen in Table 19. It is suggested to have a higher Q value for an organization (i.e., alternative) to have ES with growth potential. Hence, the alternatives are ranked in terms of their Q values wherein higher is the Q value, preferred is the alternative. The results are summarized in Table 20.

Table 19.

Year wise Tobin’s Q scores of the Alternatives.

Alternatives Tobin’s Q values
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21
A1 14.44 12.842 10.043 7.401 5.110 5.006 4.392 3.624
A2 3.80 3.908 3.739 3.688 3.881 3.101 2.788 2.634
A3 13.65 10.561 10.698 9.852 9.733 9.385 8.773 5.543
A4 37.58 29.892 25.145 19.776 15.927 12.697 12.715 13.783
A5 10.22 9.312 8.741 7.801 5.863 4.907 4.366 4.109
A6 15.72 13.452 11.501 10.014 9.141 8.902 8.159 7.695
A7 26.24 22.406 18.763 16.058 16.719 17.260 15.854 12.988
A8 2.85 2.807 3.087 3.194 2.910 2.943 2.823 2.641
A9 14.25 13.470 8.477 8.728 8.189 8.150 8.586 8.994
A10 0.47 0.665 0.732 0.568 0.573 0.599 0.713 0.749
A11 15.92 14.023 11.806 17.162 14.281 13.988 12.373 12.210
A12 3.26 3.096 2.959 2.895 2.638 2.355 2.121 1.896
A13 15.77 14.436 11.976 11.144 10.347 10.050 9.027 7.883
A14 23.08 18.760 17.554 13.229 10.192 9.130 7.855 6.892
A15 42.83 41.273 39.093 33.825 31.920 30.040 8.828 8.870
A16 8.30 7.294 6.766 5.972 5.314 4.955 5.168 4.984
A17 3.43 4.749 4.265 4.007 3.920 4.122 3.773 3.771
A18 2.51 2.299 2.275 2.085 1.896 1.637 1.608 1.457
A19 16.66 18.789 17.338 16.402 13.734 15.850 14.847 14.724
A20 30.45 28.849 26.005 24.233 21.677 24.769 22.761 22.393
A21 30.06 24.028 21.471 39.102 31.765 28.339 24.639 28.162
A22 6.46 6.324 5.144 5.559 5.647 5.714 4.789 4.617
A23 14.29 15.877 15.924 14.480 13.966 5.900 5.388 5.265
A24 11.45 11.456 10.155 9.873 9.260 8.177 7.838 7.650
A25 21.16 20.255 16.919 13.660 2.343 2.404 2.508 2.526
A26 2.34 1.976 1.745 1.667 1.697 1.611 1.691 2.342
A27 19.30 16.011 15.352 10.339 8.369 7.626 7.564 6.675
A28 30.72 23.953 23.167 20.753 16.691 14.512 12.292 10.100
A29 7.99 6.955 5.987 5.248 4.903 4.554 4.290 3.790
A30 11.48 9.774 7.739 6.972 6.028 5.154 4.644 4.656

Table 20.

Comparative year wise ranking of the Alternatives based on Tobin’s Q scores.

Alternatives Rank
Rank_2020–21
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Aggregate
A1 14 16 17 19 21 19 20 18 23
A2 24 25 25 25 24 24 25 25 25
A3 17 18 15 16 12 10 10 14 15
A4 2 2 3 5 6 8 5 4 4
A5 20 20 18 18 18 21 21 20 20
A6 13 15 14 14 14 12 12 13 11
A7 6 6 6 8 4 4 3 6 5
A8 27 27 26 26 25 25 24 26 24
A9 16 14 19 17 16 14 11 15 8
A10 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
A11 11 13 13 6 7 7 6 8 6
A12 26 26 27 27 26 27 27 27 28
A13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 10 10
A14 7 9 7 11 11 11 13 9 13
A15 1 1 1 2 1 1 9 1 9
A16 21 21 21 21 20 20 17 21 17
A17 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 24 22
A18 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 28 29
A19 10 8 8 7 9 5 4 7 3
A20 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2
A21 5 4 5 1 2 2 1 3 1
A22 23 23 23 22 19 17 18 22 19
A23 15 11 10 9 8 16 16 11 16
A24 19 17 16 15 13 13 14 16 12
A25 8 7 9 10 27 26 26 17 26
A26 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 29 27
A27 9 10 11 13 15 15 15 12 14
A28 3 5 4 4 5 6 7 5 7
A29 22 22 22 23 22 22 22 23 21
A30 18 19 20 20 17 18 19 19 18

Next, we attempt to discern the effect of COVID-19 on the performance of the alternatives. Table 21, Table 22, Table 23, Table 24, Table 25, Table 26 show the comparative analysis of the rankings for both periods, i.e., pre COVID-19 (FY 13–14 to FY 19–20) and post COVID 19 (FY 20–21) for stock performance, DPC, SOP, FS and ES respectively.

Table 21.

COVID-19 impact on ranking of Alternatives based on stock performance.

Alternatives Category Pre-Covid Post-Covid Difference Alternatives Category Pre-Covid Post-Covid Difference
A1 FMCG 1 13 −12 A7 FMCG 16 16 0
A15 FMCG 2 8 −6 A28 CD 17 9 8
A21 FMCG 3 2 1 A10 FMCG 18 30 −12
A4 FMCG 4 5 −1 A5 FMCG 19 22 −3
A20 FMCG 5 1 4 A25 FMCG 20 17 3
A6 FMCG 6 4 2 A30 CD 21 11 10
A18 FMCG 7 26 −19 A13 FMCG 22 18 4
A2 FMCG 8 23 −15 A3 FMCG 23 20 3
A27 CD 9 27 −18 A23 FMCG 24 6 18
A14 FMCG 10 7 3 A29 CD 25 10 15
A19 FMCG 11 12 −1 A22 FMCG 26 3 23
A17 FMCG 12 24 −12 A26 CD 27 28 −1
A11 FMCG 13 14 −1 A24 FMCG 28 25 3
A16 FMCG 14 15 −1 A8 FMCG 29 21 8
A9 FMCG 15 19 −4 A12 FMCG 30 29 1

Pre-Covid: Aggregated ranking based on stock performance during FY 2013–14 to FY 2019–20

Post-Covid: Stock performance during FY 2020–21.

Table 22.

COVID-19 impact on ranking of Alternatives based on DPC.

Alternatives Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference Alternatives Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference
A16 FMCG 1 1 0 A18 FMCG 16 12 4
A15 FMCG 2 2 0 A28 CD 17 22 −5
A1 FMCG 3 21 −18 A30 CD 18 23 −5
A2 FMCG 4 8 −4 A5 FMCG 19 13 6
A21 FMCG 5 10 −5 A24 FMCG 20 20 0
A20 FMCG 6 3 3 A8 FMCG 21 28 −7
A27 CD 7 6 1 A14 FMCG 22 25 −3
A6 FMCG 8 7 1 A10 FMCG 23 5 18
A4 FMCG 9 14 −5 A23 FMCG 24 29 −5
A25 FMCG 10 30 −20 A12 FMCG 25 17 8
A19 FMCG 11 9 2 A11 FMCG 26 19 7
A22 FMCG 12 26 −14 A17 FMCG 27 24 3
A7 FMCG 13 11 2 A29 CD 28 18 10
A13 FMCG 14 16 −2 A26 CD 29 4 25
A9 FMCG 15 15 0 A3 FMCG 30 27 3

Table 23.

COVID-19 impact on ranking of Alternatives based on SOP.

Alternatives Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference Alternatives Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference
A16 FMCG 1 1 0 A28 CD 16 18 −2
A15 FMCG 2 4 −2 A13 FMCG 17 23 −6
A1 FMCG 3 17 −14 A11 FMCG 18 21 −3
A4 FMCG 4 27 −23 A14 FMCG 19 25 −6
A27 CD 5 6 −1 A26 CD 20 5 15
A21 FMCG 6 7 −1 A9 FMCG 21 19 2
A2 FMCG 7 16 −9 A23 FMCG 22 29 −7
A18 FMCG 8 9 −1 A25 FMCG 23 30 −7
A24 FMCG 9 14 −5 A17 FMCG 24 28 −4
A7 FMCG 10 15 −5 A30 CD 25 26 −1
A12 FMCG 11 12 −1 A10 FMCG 26 3 23
A20 FMCG 12 2 10 A6 FMCG 27 11 16
A19 FMCG 13 10 3 A29 CD 28 22 6
A5 FMCG 14 13 1 A8 FMCG 29 8 21
A22 FMCG 15 24 −9 A3 FMCG 30 20 10

Table 24.

COVID-19 impact on ranking of Alternatives based on FS.

Company Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference Company Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference
A21 FMCG 1 2 −1 A2 FMCG 16 13 3
A19 FMCG 2 3 −1 A5 FMCG 17 22 −5
A23 FMCG 3 9 −6 A24 FMCG 18 17 1
A15 FMCG 4 10 −6 A14 FMCG 19 21 −2
A4 FMCG 5 15 −10 A30 CD 20 19 1
A27 CD 6 5 1 A3 FMCG 21 28 −7
A7 FMCG 7 4 3 A6 FMCG 22 20 2
A20 FMCG 8 7 1 A22 FMCG 23 18 5
A25 FMCG 9 1 8 A29 CD 24 23 1
A28 CD 10 16 −6 A12 FMCG 25 27 −2
A11 FMCG 11 8 3 A17 FMCG 26 25 1
A9 FMCG 12 6 6 A18 FMCG 27 24 3
A16 FMCG 13 12 1 A26 CD 28 29 −1
A1 FMCG 14 11 3 A8 FMCG 29 26 3
A13 FMCG 15 14 1 A10 FMCG 30 30 0

Table 25.

COVID-19 impact on ranking of Alternatives based on ES.

Company Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference Company Category Pre-COVID Post-COVID Difference
A15 FMCG 1 9 −8 A24 FMCG 16 12 4
A20 FMCG 2 2 0 A25 FMCG 17 26 −9
A21 FMCG 3 1 2 A1 FMCG 18 23 −5
A4 FMCG 4 4 0 A30 CD 19 18 1
A28 CD 5 7 −2 A5 FMCG 20 20 0
A7 FMCG 6 5 1 A16 FMCG 21 17 4
A19 FMCG 7 3 4 A22 FMCG 22 19 3
A11 FMCG 8 6 2 A29 CD 23 21 2
A14 FMCG 9 13 −4 A17 FMCG 24 22 2
A13 FMCG 10 10 0 A2 FMCG 25 25 0
A23 FMCG 11 16 −5 A8 FMCG 26 24 2
A27 CD 12 14 −2 A12 FMCG 27 28 −1
A6 FMCG 13 11 2 A18 FMCG 28 29 −1
A3 FMCG 14 15 −1 A26 CD 29 27 2
A9 FMCG 15 8 7 A10 FMCG 30 30 0

We also check for statistically significant association between pre and post COVID 19 performance related to stock performance, DPC, SOP, FS and ES using Spearman’s rank correlation test (see Table 28)

Table 28.

Rank correlation (EDAS and COPRAS) for post COVID 19 period.

Aspect Correlation EDAS
SP COPRAS Spearman’s rho .999⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000

Correlation EDAS

DPC COPRAS Spearman’s rho 0.927⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000

Correlation EDAS

SOP COPRAS Spearman’s rho 0.966⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000
**

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Table 26.

Rank correlation test: Before and after COVID-19.

Aspect Correlation Rank_Post Covid
SP Rank_ Pre Covid Spearman’s rho .380
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.038

Correlation Rank_Post Covid

DPC Rank_ Pre Covid Spearman’s rho .472⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.008

Correlation Rank_Post Covid

SOP Rank_ Pre Covid Spearman’s rho .367
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.046

Correlation Rank_Post Covid

FS Rank_ Pre Covid Spearman’s rho .892⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000

Correlation Rank_Post Covid

ES Rank_ Pre Covid Spearman’s rho .920⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000
*

Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

**

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

6.1. Validation of the MCDM result

The analysis using MCDM methods are based on the selection of the alternatives and criteria, the relative priorities of the criteria and their influences on the performance values of the alternatives and many other assumptions on given conditions [135]. Hence, it is important to check the reliability of the results before drawing any conclusions. To this end the extant literature shows umpteen evidences of comparative analysis of result by the given MCDM model with that obtained by applying other established algorithms (for instance, [136], [137], [138], [139]). In the present paper we compare our result with another popular model such as the Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) method [140]. Table 21, Table 22 show the results of the comparison of EDAS and COPRAS methods for both pre COVID-19 (i.e., aggregated performance during FY 2013–14 to FY 2019–20) and post COVID-19 (i.e., FY 2020–21) periods and confirm the reasonable reliability of our result (see Table 27).

Table 27.

Rank correlation (EDAS and COPRAS) for pre COVID 19 period.

Aspect Correlation EDAS
SP COPRAS Spearman’s rho .992⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000

Correlation EDAS

DPC COPRAS Spearman’s rho 0.972⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000

Correlation EDAS

SOP COPRAS Spearman’s rho 0.987⁎⁎
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000
**

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

6.2. Sensitivity analysis

For any MCDM based comparative ranking, stability of the outcome is of paramount importance. The stability of results get disturbed by the external changes in the underlying conditions. The changes in the criteria weights is one such major issue [141]. To check the stability of the result we perform the sensitivity analysis using the scheme as demonstrated in [35]. We generate the experimental cases by reducing the weight of the most prioritized criterion by 2% at each stage and subsequently, add to the other criteria proportionately. Table 28 showcases one sample experiment for doing the sensitivity analysis for the stock performance for FY 2019–20. The result of the sensitivity analysis is pictorially shown in Fig. 2. It is seen that the result is considerably stable (see Table 29).

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Result of sensitivity analysis (Stock performance for FY 2019–20).

Table 29.

Experimental cases for sensitivity analysis (Stock performance for FY 2019–20).

Cases C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 Sum
Original 0.2665 0.1455 0.0513 0.0394 0.0198 0.0074 0.0694 0.2044 0.1963 1.0000
Exp 1 0.2532 0.1471 0.0530 0.0410 0.0215 0.0091 0.0710 0.2060 0.1980 1.0000
Exp 2 0.2405 0.1487 0.0546 0.0426 0.0231 0.0107 0.0726 0.2076 0.1996 1.0000
Exp 3 0.2285 0.1502 0.0561 0.0441 0.0246 0.0122 0.0741 0.2091 0.2011 1.0000
Exp 4 0.2171 0.1516 0.0575 0.0456 0.0260 0.0136 0.0756 0.2105 0.2025 1.0000
Exp 5 0.2062 0.1530 0.0588 0.0469 0.0274 0.0150 0.0769 0.2119 0.2039 1.0000
Exp 6 0.1959 0.1543 0.0601 0.0482 0.0287 0.0163 0.0782 0.2132 0.2052 1.0000
Exp 7 0.1861 0.1555 0.0614 0.0494 0.0299 0.0175 0.0794 0.2144 0.2064 1.0000
Exp 8 0.1768 0.1567 0.0625 0.0506 0.0311 0.0186 0.0806 0.2156 0.2076 1.0000
Exp 9 0.1680 0.1578 0.0636 0.0517 0.0322 0.0198 0.0817 0.2167 0.2087 1.0000
Exp 10 0.1596 0.1588 0.0647 0.0527 0.0332 0.0208 0.0827 0.2177 0.2097 1.0000

In the similar way we have carried the sensitivity analysis of all results and notice no significant variations. Hence, we contend that the results obtained by using our model is stable in nature.

7. Discussions

The present study shows some interesting observations. It is evident from Table 8 that for stock performance comparison, return and risk get more weightage than others which supports the modern portfolio theory started with the work of Markowitz [88]. Further, it may be noted that the distribution of the weights shows reasonable evenness despite substantial variations in the performance values of the alternatives (including the presence of some negative values), which justifies the use of the LOPCOW method for calculating the criteria weights. Table 10 shows that the stock’s performance maintains considerably steady positions until the spread of COVID-19. The FMCG firms dominate the top half (i.e., first 15 positions) with only one representative (A27, Symphony Ltd.) from the CD segment. We observe that mostly the large-cap multinational, multiproduct FMCG firms like Hindustan Unilever Ltd., Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Ltd., Nestle India Ltd. etc. dominate the top positions. However, the relative positions vary notably during the early post-pandemic period (FY 20–21). It is further noticed (see Table 23) that the stocks which held top positions prior to COVID-19 suffer more afterward than the bottom performers. The results of the rank correlation test (see Table 28) show that pre and post-COVID-19 rankings for stock performance hold a weak statistically significant correlation with the sig value close to 0.05. This finding is a reflection of the past work (for example, [47], [48], [49]).

Moving to the comparative analysis of DPC, we observe that leverage (C28) and profitability (C23) assume a higher weightage than others (see Table 13). For the performance-based ranking considering DPC (see Table 14, Table 22), we find the same pattern as the stock performance. However, we find a slightly better correlation between pre and post-COVID-19 ranking with strong statistical significance (see Table 26). In the case of SOP, we find that sales growth (C31) and leverage (C39) carry higher weightage (Table 15). Further from the comparative ranking, it is also seen that (ref Table 15, Table 23) there has been a significant variation in the ranking. The correlation test (see Table 26) also suggests the same.

Immediately after the spread of COVID-19 in the country, the Government took several countermeasures, including a complete lockdown for a prolonged period. With the fear of an unknown future coupled with the shutdown of trades and businesses, the stock market showed abnormal behaviors [142] alongside SOP and dividend payments by the firms. In that sense, the variations are not uncommon. We notice different outcomes while assessing the financial stabilities (Altman’s Z), economic sustainability, and growth prospects (Tobin’s Q). We find that there was no effect of COVID-19 on the comparative rankings, as may be seen in Table 24, Table 25, Table 26 (very high values for correlation coefficients with strong statistical significance). On the aggregation of the performance-based rankings (considering stock performance, DPC, SOP, FS, and ES), we find that the firms like Hindustan Unilever Ltd., Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Ltd., Britannia Industries Ltd., Nestle India Ltd., Avanti Feeds Ltd., Symphony Ltd., Marico Ltd., ITC Ltd., Dabur India Ltd., and Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd. have performed well during the pre-COVID 19 period. Nevertheless, their performance in the stock market, DPC, and SOP have been affected notably by the ‘black swan’ event COVID-19. However, the firms could maintain their FS and ES.

From the technical point of view, the comparative analysis of EDAS and COPRAS based rankings (see Table 28) assures the reliability of the results used in this paper. We notice very high correlation with strong evidences of statistical significance. We observe that the model provides considerably stable results as the changes in the influencing conditions like criteria weights do not disturb the overall ranking much. The results of the sensitivity analysis reflects the stability of the model. In the present work the size of the decision matrices are reasonably large. Therefore, we contend that our model can be applied to various real-life complex issues. It is noticed that LOPCOW can work fine with the presence of negative values in the decision matrix which supports its superiority. Besides many advantages of our model, there are some limitations. In the present work we have not considered any subjective information. Therefore, the efficacy of LOPCOW in the presence of subjective bias has not been tested. The model (LOPCOW-EDAS) may be extended and tested by using fuzzy and rough set based models as demonstrated in various recently published work (for instance, [143], [144], [145], [146], [147]). Secondly, while aggregating the year wise rankings the BC model does not consider priority of any single year. It may be a limitation as the most recent performance is sometime given more priority over the others.

Our work supports the views of contemporary work. However, it provides a multi-perspective objective evaluation of the firm performance. Further, our work reveals a mixed impact of COVID-19. The pandemic affects the stock market reactions and the operational performance and reduce DPC, but the financial health and long-term growth prospect remain unaltered. Hence, we contend that the early effect of a catastrophic event like COVID-19 might affect the performance of a fundamentally stable organization, reflecting financial health and long-term growth prospect that may be given priority when selecting securities for investment during turbulent times.

The present analysis sheds light on important policy implications. The extant literature has been increasingly contributed with scholarly works that utilize the predictive models for forecasting the effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance and/or statistical time series based analysis to discern the causal effect on market performance. The present study is a distinguished from the past work in this regard. It provides a robust analytical framework for multi-period and multi-perspective evaluations of the performance based on market indicators and accounting measures considering the both top line and bottom line performance. Our reliable and stable yet easy to use MCDM model shall enable the policy makers to investigate the inclusive growth of the organizations and shall be able to bring to surface the possible areas of vulnerabilities. In effect, the organizations shall plan for resilience planning and management of disruption risks. From the investment decision making point of view, the present work also add value to the consultants and common investors in the market as it provides a holistic view to analyze the investment prospect of the stocks.

8. Conclusion and future scope

In the current work we have attempted to put forth a multi-perspective evaluation of the performance of the selected FMCG and CD firms listed in BSE, India. The underlying intention is to descry the effect of the recent pandemic on the performance-based ranking of the firms. We have selected multiple features to carry out the comparative analysis of the firms regarding their stock performance, capabilities to pay dividends, operational performance, financial solidity, economic sustainability and long term growth prospect. A total of 30 firms (i.e., alternatives) have been considered out of which 25 are from the FMCG sector and rest 5 belong to the CD sector. A period of seven consecutive FYs (FY 13–14 to FY 19–20) has been considered for comparing the performance of alternatives in the pre-pandemic phase while the early effect of COVID-19 has been considered (FY 20–21). To compare the alternatives, a combined MCDM framework of LOPCOW and EDAS has been utilized wherein for aggregation of MCDM rankings popular methods like Borda count and Copeland methods have been applied. We have noticed that the relative positions (while assessing stock performance, DPC and SOP) vary notably during the early post-pandemic period (FY 20–21). It is further noticed that the alternatives which held top positions prior to COVID-19 suffer more afterward than the bottom performers. However, there has not been any major effect of COVID-19 on firms’ financial health and long-term growth prospect. The results show substantial stability as revealed through the sensitivity analysis. The comparison with other MCDM models reflect on the reliability of the results provided by our model.

The present work is one of its kind that fills the gap in the literature by providing a comprehensive multi-dimensional comparative assessment of FMCG and CD firms in Indian context. However, we do find some of the future scope of research. Firstly, the present paper only considers FMCG and CD sectors which may be further extended by including other sectors to have a deeper inspection of the effect of pandemic on sector wise performance. Secondly, the current work is based on a limited number of features or ratios (i.e., proxy variables) which may further be expanded. Thirdly, we have not considered some of the other essential dimensions like innovativeness, CSR performance, corporate governance, marketing performance and human capital management which may be interesting to be worked upon. Fourthly, behavioral finance aspects are not addressed in this paper. Fifth, a future work may be carried out using panel regression based causal analysis to enfold the impact of DPC, SOP, FS and ES on the stock performance vis-à-vis COVID-19. Sixth, from the technical point of view, the LOPCOW model may be further tested for its consistency aspect while dealing with subjective opinions. In this regard, the extensions using fuzzy and rough numbers may be developed. We plan to extend the framework (LOPCOW-EDAS) with intuitionistic fuzzy, picture fuzzy, neutrosophic fuzzy, spherical fuzzy, q rung orthopair fuzzy, fermatean fuzzy and other variants along with grey and rough numbers. Seventh, we also plan to use LOPCOW method in conjunction with the other weighting methods like entropy, SECA, CRITIC, PIPRECIA, LBWA, FUCOM among others.

Nevertheless, we are hopeful that the current paper shall meet the expectations of the readers and invoke further work in the directions laid down. Our reliable and stable yet easy to use MCDM model shall enable the policy makers to investigate the inclusive growth of the organizations and shall be able to bring to surface the possible areas of vulnerabilities. In effect, the organizations shall plan for resilience planning and management of disruption risks. The policymakers and top managers of the firms shall also use the present framework as a supportive tool for comprehensive assessment of the sustainability performance of the firms.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Footnotes

Appendix B

Supplementary material related to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dajour.2022.100143.

Appendix A.

See Table A.1, Table A.2, Table A.3, Table A.4, Table A.5, Table A.6, Table A.7

Table A.1.

Ranking of DMUs based on stock performance (FY 2014–15).

DMU SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 1.1209 0.0586 1.0000 0.9648 0.9824 1
A2 0.4295 0.0381 0.3832 0.9771 0.6802 6
A3 0.5778 0.4758 0.5155 0.7146 0.6150 10
A4 0.5028 0.0472 0.4486 0.9717 0.7101 4
A5 0.4590 0.3761 0.4095 0.7744 0.5919 13
A6 0.5403 0.1164 0.4821 0.9302 0.7061 5
A7 0.1820 0.1406 0.1624 0.9157 0.5390 16
A8 0.0467 0.5793 0.0417 0.6525 0.3471 27
A9 0.3128 0.0225 0.2791 0.9865 0.6328 9
A10 0.3535 0.4653 0.3154 0.7209 0.5181 19
A11 0.3314 0.1579 0.2956 0.9053 0.6005 12
A12 0.1954 1.6669 0.1743 0.0000 0.0872 30
A13 0.0661 0.2984 0.0590 0.8210 0.4400 23
A14 0.1622 0.3983 0.1447 0.7610 0.4529 21
A15 0.7915 0.1030 0.7061 0.9382 0.8222 3
A16 0.4683 0.4299 0.4178 0.7421 0.5800 15
A17 0.0224 0.3197 0.0199 0.8082 0.4141 24
A18 0.4424 0.2830 0.3947 0.8302 0.6125 11
A19 0.1493 0.1028 0.1332 0.9383 0.5358 18
A20 0.4619 0.1530 0.4121 0.9082 0.6601 7
A21 0.4056 0.0811 0.3619 0.9513 0.6566 8
A22 0.0413 0.9322 0.0368 0.4408 0.2388 29
A23 0.1163 0.6850 0.1038 0.5891 0.3464 28
A24 0.0413 0.4043 0.0369 0.7575 0.3972 25
A25 0.1511 0.0990 0.1348 0.9406 0.5377 17
A26 0.1478 0.3158 0.1319 0.8106 0.4712 20
A27 0.8410 0.1346 0.7503 0.9192 0.8348 2
A28 0.0044 0.1825 0.0039 0.8905 0.4472 22
A29 0.0251 0.4310 0.0224 0.7414 0.3819 26
A30 0.3532 0.2450 0.3151 0.8530 0.5840 14

Table A.2.

Ranking of DMUs based on stock performance (FY 2015–16).

DMU SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 0.5641 −22.6655 0.9401 35.8557 18.3979 1
A2 0.3985 −2.6801 0.6642 5.1216 2.8929 6
A3 0.0185 −2.1256 0.0309 4.2688 2.1498 10
A4 −3.4328 0.0601 −5.7216 0.9076 −2.4070 23
A5 −1.5749 0.2904 −2.6249 0.5535 −1.0357 22
A6 0.4334 −14.8377 0.7224 23.8178 12.2701 2
A7 0.1869 −0.7294 0.3115 2.1216 1.2166 15
A8 −3.8578 0.6503 −6.4300 0.0000 −3.2150 25
A9 0.0950 −0.9512 0.1583 2.4628 1.3106 14
A10 −9.1410 0.4514 −15.2357 0.3058 −7.4649 28
A11 0.2165 −1.1240 0.3609 2.7286 1.5447 13
A12 −17.7054 0.2173 −29.5106 0.6658 −14.4224 29
A13 −4.9520 0.1243 −8.2538 0.8088 −3.7225 26
A14 −4.3524 0.0763 −7.2543 0.8827 −3.1858 24
A15 0.6000 0.0128 1.0000 0.9803 0.9902 16
A16 0.1452 0.1316 0.2420 0.7976 0.5198 18
A17 −1.3666 0.1877 −2.2777 0.7114 −0.7832 20
A18 −4.9813 0.1781 −8.3025 0.7262 −3.7882 27
A19 0.1654 −7.6695 0.2756 12.7943 6.5350 3
A20 0.4816 −2.7954 0.8026 5.2988 3.0507 5
A21 0.4667 −2.0232 0.7779 4.1113 2.4446 9
A22 −1.3979 0.4353 −2.3300 0.3306 −0.9997 21
A23 0.0900 −2.8334 0.1499 5.3572 2.7536 7
A24 0.0047 −2.8222 0.0078 5.3400 2.6739 8
A25 0.0959 −4.9050 0.1599 8.5431 4.3515 4
A26 −19.7157 0.2052 −32.8612 0.6845 −16.0884 30
A27 0.4608 −1.0957 0.7680 2.6850 1.7265 12
A28 0.0273 −2.0762 0.0456 4.1928 2.1192 11
A29 −0.0537 0.4565 −0.0895 0.2980 0.1043 19
A30 0.0000 −0.2240 0.0000 1.3445 0.6722 17

Table A.3.

Ranking of DMUs based on stock performance (FY 2016–17).

DMU SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 0.8401 0.0933 1.0000 0.8925 0.9462 1
A2 0.4489 0.2591 0.5343 0.7012 0.6178 8
A3 0.6848 0.6568 0.8151 0.2427 0.5289 13
A4 0.3506 0.0289 0.4173 0.9666 0.6920 6
A5 0.5310 0.2711 0.6321 0.6874 0.6598 7
A6 0.3419 0.1599 0.4070 0.8156 0.6113 10
A7 0.1699 0.1767 0.2022 0.7963 0.4992 16
A8 0.1197 0.4613 0.1425 0.4681 0.3053 25
A9 0.1343 0.1446 0.1599 0.8333 0.4966 17
A10 0.2797 0.3772 0.3329 0.5651 0.4490 18
A11 0.2492 0.4018 0.2966 0.5367 0.4167 20
A12 0.0012 0.6632 0.0014 0.2353 0.1184 30
A13 0.0452 0.1455 0.0538 0.8322 0.4430 19
A14 0.4958 0.1493 0.5902 0.8278 0.7090 5
A15 0.7785 0.2139 0.9266 0.7534 0.8400 2
A16 0.5175 0.5132 0.6160 0.4082 0.5121 15
A17 0.1664 0.1363 0.1981 0.8428 0.5205 14
A18 0.6101 0.1699 0.7262 0.8041 0.7651 4
A19 0.1876 0.0857 0.2233 0.9012 0.5622 12
A20 0.3818 0.2084 0.4545 0.7597 0.6071 11
A21 0.6339 0.0693 0.7545 0.9201 0.8373 3
A22 0.1538 0.4381 0.1831 0.4948 0.3390 24
A23 0.0852 0.5756 0.1015 0.3363 0.2189 28
A24 0.0094 0.6506 0.0112 0.2499 0.1305 29
A25 0.0898 0.2377 0.1069 0.7259 0.4164 21
A26 0.0951 0.4724 0.1132 0.4552 0.2842 26
A27 0.3685 0.8673 0.4386 0.0000 0.2193 27
A28 0.0934 0.2672 0.1111 0.6919 0.4015 23
A29 0.2400 0.3954 0.2856 0.5441 0.4148 22
A30 0.4092 0.2229 0.4871 0.7429 0.6150 9

Table A.4.

Ranking of DMUs based on stock performance (FY 2017–18).

Company SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 1.3214 0.0716 1.0000 0.9159 0.9580 1
A2 0.3733 0.1311 0.2825 0.8459 0.5642 9
A3 0.1423 0.8188 0.1077 0.0377 0.0727 28
A4 0.4160 0.0510 0.3148 0.9401 0.6274 6
A5 0.2099 0.6034 0.1589 0.2908 0.2248 26
A6 0.3285 0.2670 0.2486 0.6862 0.4674 10
A7 0.1305 0.1542 0.0987 0.8188 0.4588 11
A8 0.0000 0.8168 0.0000 0.0401 0.0200 29
A9 0.0909 0.3504 0.0688 0.5882 0.3285 21
A10 0.4467 0.3695 0.3380 0.5657 0.4519 12
A11 0.6885 0.1398 0.5211 0.8357 0.6784 4
A12 0.0083 0.8509 0.0062 0.0000 0.0031 30
A13 0.0350 0.5946 0.0265 0.3012 0.1638 27
A14 0.3698 0.1229 0.2799 0.8556 0.5677 8
A15 0.8893 0.0576 0.6730 0.9323 0.8026 3
A16 0.3762 0.4341 0.2847 0.4898 0.3873 19
A17 0.1466 0.2612 0.1109 0.6930 0.4019 18
A18 0.2382 0.3199 0.1802 0.6241 0.4021 17
A19 0.1275 0.2033 0.0965 0.7610 0.4287 14
A20 0.4798 0.1502 0.3631 0.8234 0.5933 7
A21 1.0560 0.0555 0.7991 0.9348 0.8669 2
A22 0.5070 0.4288 0.3837 0.4961 0.4399 13
A23 0.2580 0.5089 0.1952 0.4019 0.2986 23
A24 0.0098 0.3789 0.0074 0.5547 0.2811 25
A25 0.1357 0.2451 0.1027 0.7119 0.4073 16
A26 0.0997 0.3009 0.0755 0.6463 0.3609 20
A27 0.2501 0.2952 0.1893 0.6531 0.4212 15
A28 0.6114 0.1583 0.4627 0.8140 0.6383 5
A29 0.1248 0.4387 0.0945 0.4844 0.2895 24
A30 0.0153 0.3081 0.0116 0.6379 0.3247 22

Table A.5.

Ranking of DMUs based on stock performance (FY 2018–19).

Company SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 0.3933 −3.6593 0.7315 6.0334 3.3825 1
A2 0.5376 −0.6155 1.0000 1.8466 1.4233 4
A3 −0.4035 0.7270 −0.7505 0.0000 −0.3753 28
A4 0.2612 −0.7997 0.4859 2.1001 1.2930 5
A5 −0.2418 0.1720 −0.4497 0.7634 0.1568 18
A6 −0.3626 0.0867 −0.6744 0.8807 0.1032 19
A7 −0.5681 0.0908 −1.0567 0.8751 −0.0908 25
A8 0.1178 0.1472 0.2190 0.7975 0.5083 11
A9 0.0533 −1.8688 0.0992 3.5706 1.8349 2
A10 0.0407 0.2045 0.0757 0.7188 0.3972 13
A11 0.0840 0.0384 0.1562 0.9472 0.5517 9
A12 −1.0454 0.4272 −1.9445 0.4123 −0.7661 30
A13 0.1762 −0.7333 0.3278 2.0087 1.1683 6
A14 −0.0572 0.1286 −0.1064 0.8232 0.3584 15
A15 −0.1495 0.0268 −0.2781 0.9632 0.3425 16
A16 −0.4097 0.1804 −0.7620 0.7519 −0.0050 23
A17 0.0773 −1.3356 0.1437 2.8371 1.4904 3
A18 0.1606 −0.1794 0.2987 1.2468 0.7727 7
A19 −0.2443 0.0683 −0.4544 0.9061 0.2259 17
A20 −0.3604 0.0986 −0.6703 0.8644 0.0970 21
A21 0.0519 0.0450 0.0966 0.9381 0.5174 10
A22 −0.6942 0.2993 −1.2912 0.5883 −0.3514 27
A23 0.0443 0.1721 0.0823 0.7632 0.4228 12
A24 −0.9020 0.2398 −1.6778 0.6701 −0.5038 29
A25 −0.4241 0.2702 −0.7889 0.6283 −0.0803 24
A26 0.0702 0.2459 0.1306 0.6617 0.3962 14
A27 0.0714 −0.1016 0.1328 1.1398 0.6363 8
A28 −0.7000 0.0980 −1.3020 0.8652 −0.2184 26
A29 −0.2904 0.3265 −0.5401 0.5509 0.0054 22
A30 −0.2647 0.2219 −0.4924 0.6948 0.1012 20

Table A.6.

Ranking of DMUs based on stock performance (FY 2019–20).

Company SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 0.4676 0.1640 1.0000 0.6526 0.8263 6
A2 0.1106 0.2647 0.2365 0.4394 0.3379 21
A3 0.1618 0.3348 0.3460 0.2910 0.3185 24
A4 0.1861 0.0516 0.3980 0.8906 0.6443 11
A5 0.2211 0.0394 0.4729 0.9166 0.6947 9
A6 0.0393 0.0832 0.0840 0.8238 0.4539 18
A7 −0.2226 0.0842 −0.4760 0.8216 0.1728 25
A8 0.0000 0.4722 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 28
A9 0.1351 0.1526 0.2890 0.6768 0.4829 17
A10 0.0475 −0.6215 0.1017 2.3162 1.2089 1
A11 0.0602 0.2252 0.1287 0.5230 0.3259 22
A12 0.3928 0.2508 0.8400 0.4688 0.6544 10
A13 −0.0173 0.0575 −0.0369 0.8783 0.4207 20
A14 0.2444 0.1673 0.5226 0.6456 0.5841 14
A15 0.3583 0.0287 0.7662 0.9392 0.8527 5
A16 0.4193 0.0717 0.8967 0.8481 0.8724 4
A17 0.2339 0.0452 0.5003 0.9043 0.7023 8
A18 0.1289 −0.3211 0.2757 1.6801 0.9779 2
A19 0.0816 0.0865 0.1746 0.8168 0.4957 16
A20 0.3744 0.0072 0.8007 0.9848 0.8927 3
A21 0.2369 0.1033 0.5067 0.7812 0.6440 12
A22 0.3715 0.1587 0.7946 0.6639 0.7293 7
A23 −0.4858 0.2818 −1.0388 0.4031 −0.3179 30
A24 0.0000 0.3105 0.0000 0.3423 0.1712 26
A25 −0.2089 0.3967 −0.4468 0.1599 −0.1434 29
A26 0.3320 0.2362 0.7099 0.4997 0.6048 13
A27 0.0864 0.1471 0.1848 0.6884 0.4366 19
A28 0.0967 0.0734 0.2069 0.8446 0.5257 15
A29 0.0105 0.1772 0.0225 0.6248 0.3236 23
A30 −0.2182 0.1152 −0.4667 0.7560 0.1446 27

Table A.7.

Ranking of DMUs based on stock performance (FY 2020–21).

Company SP SN NSP NSN AS Rank
A1 0.4064 0.2928 0.2011 0.8747 0.5379 13
A2 0.2964 0.8341 0.1466 0.6431 0.3949 23
A3 0.2747 0.5375 0.1359 0.7700 0.4529 20
A4 0.8457 0.0303 0.4185 0.9870 0.7028 5
A5 0.0407 0.4739 0.0202 0.7972 0.4087 22
A6 0.8969 0.0861 0.4438 0.9632 0.7035 4
A7 0.2829 0.1868 0.1400 0.9201 0.5300 16
A8 0.2206 0.5321 0.1092 0.7723 0.4407 21
A9 0.3837 0.6429 0.1899 0.7249 0.4574 19
A10 0.1071 2.3367 0.0530 0.0000 0.0265 30
A11 0.4406 0.3543 0.2180 0.8484 0.5332 14
A12 0.0934 1.2299 0.0462 0.4737 0.2599 29
A13 0.1271 0.2837 0.0629 0.8786 0.4707 18
A14 0.7113 0.1044 0.3520 0.9553 0.6536 7
A15 0.6095 0.1484 0.3016 0.9365 0.6190 8
A16 0.5776 0.5219 0.2858 0.7767 0.5312 15
A17 0.0364 0.6727 0.0180 0.7121 0.3651 24
A18 0.0000 0.6831 0.0000 0.7077 0.3538 26
A19 0.2971 0.0974 0.1470 0.9583 0.5527 12
A20 2.0209 0.1470 1.0000 0.9371 0.9685 1
A21 1.3416 0.1153 0.6638 0.9507 0.8073 2
A22 1.1092 0.2475 0.5489 0.8941 0.7215 3
A23 1.0554 0.3192 0.5222 0.8634 0.6928 6
A24 0.0000 0.6433 0.0000 0.7247 0.3624 25
A25 0.4883 0.5367 0.2416 0.7703 0.5060 17
A26 0.1062 1.0777 0.0525 0.5388 0.2957 28
A27 0.0555 0.7627 0.0275 0.6736 0.3505 27
A28 0.6476 0.2281 0.3204 0.9024 0.6114 9
A29 0.5870 0.2307 0.2905 0.9013 0.5959 10
A30 0.5493 0.2522 0.2718 0.8921 0.5819 11

Appendix B. Supplementary data

The following is the Supplementary material related to this article.

MMC S1

Dataset.

mmc1.xls (200.5KB, xls)

Data availability

Data will be made available on request.

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Supplementary Materials

MMC S1

Dataset.

mmc1.xls (200.5KB, xls)

Data Availability Statement

Data will be made available on request.


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