Science policy frameworks for a post-pandemic green economic recovery

Theodoros Zachariadis; Elias Giannakis; Constantinos Taliotis; Marios Karmellos; Nestor Fylaktos; Mark Howells; Will Blyth; Stéphane Hallegatte

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2022.101035

. 2022 Dec 18;45:101035. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2022.101035

Science policy frameworks for a post-pandemic green economic recovery

Theodoros Zachariadis ^a,^∗, Elias Giannakis ^a, Constantinos Taliotis ^a, Marios Karmellos ^a, Nestor Fylaktos ^a, Mark Howells ^b, Will Blyth ^c, Stéphane Hallegatte ^d

PMCID: PMC9759924

Abstract

As current production and consumption patterns exceed planetary boundaries, many leaders have stressed the need to adopt green economic stimulus policies in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides an integrated multi-stakeholder framework to design an economic recovery strategy aligned with climate stabilisation objectives. We first employ quantitative energy and economic models, and then a multi-criteria decision process in which we engage social actors from government, enterprises and civil society. As a case study, we select green recovery measures that are relevant for a European Union country and assess their appropriateness with numerous criteria related to climate resilience and socio-economic sustainability. Results highlight trade-offs between immediate and long-run effects, economic and environmental objectives, and expert evidence and societal priorities. Importantly, we find that a ‘return-to-normal’ economic stimulus is environmentally unsustainable and economically inferior to most green recovery schemes.

Keywords: Climate-compatible growth, Energy systems model, Input-output model, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Stakeholder engagement, Sustainable development goals

1. Introduction

Since mid-2020, despite the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the response of governments around the world has partly moved from the provision of immediate relief to the design and implementation of economic recovery measures for the short and medium term. Leaders of international organisations have stressed the importance of adopting green economic stimulus policies in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) and the Paris agreement on Climate Change, as greener economies are more resilient to climate change, social unrest, and epidemics [[1], [2], [3], [4]]. Global economic support for relief and recovery from the pandemic has risen to significant levels since spring 2020 – but as regards the conformity of such stimulus measures with climate compatible growth, the picture is mixed [5,6].

The lockdown measures to contain spread of the pandemic led to a serious economic downturn in Cyprus, with GDP contracting by 11.9% in the second quarter of 2020 [7]. As in other world regions, economic stimulus packages had to be designed for rapid implementation and to contribute to positive growth and employment impacts in the short term, keeping in mind long-term development and decarbonisation objectives, such as the EU's 2030 energy and climate goals and the envisioned carbon neutrality for 2050, as foreseen in the ‘European Green Deal’ [8].

In this paper we develop a novel integrated assessment framework for the design of an economic recovery strategy that could have promising impacts on climate resilience and socio-economic sustainability. This involves multi-criteria decision analysis, which incorporates both quantitative data derived from models and qualitative input provided by several stakeholders (Fig. 1 ). The adopted quantitative models are open-source and transparent, which allows for their rapid adaptation to the needs of policymakers in a specific country; the appropriateness of such models for rapid policy formulation has been demonstrated very recently [9]. The use of qualitative input is not only necessary because models cannot adequately simulate all possible impacts; it is also essential for increasing the likelihood of social acceptance of the proposed recovery interventions, by reducing dependence on knowledge silos of academic experts or policy makers. This is in line with the need for broader mobilization of society for the transition to sustainability [10]. Although we applied this approach in the case of Cyprus, an EU member state in the Eastern Mediterranean, the framework has general application, and the underlying tools and processes can be adopted in other national or regional contexts.

Fig. 1 — Approach to designing and assessing a green economic recovery strategy.

This science-policy framework involves regular interaction with societal actors, which can help highlight the importance of thinking beyond purely short-term recovery measures and considering investments and reforms that may take time to materialise, but are essential for meeting medium- and long-term climate objectives [11]. A short-term recovery plan, no matter how green it is, cannot deliver the low-carbon transition by itself; it has to be complemented by structural reforms that can deliver environmental and economic benefits over the longer term [12]. Our approach highlighted this aspect to national stakeholders, some of whom were understandably interested in mitigating the immediate impacts of the pandemic and paid less attention to long-term green reforms. Based on quantitative evidence which is shown in this paper, we also emphasised the mediocre performance of a ‘return-to-normal’ economic stimulus, not only in environmental but also in economic terms. To encourage ownership of the measures by national decision makers we built on policies and measures that are largely based on existing national plans so that stakeholders are familiar with such interventions. This increases the likelihood for adoption of these measures in the national recovery strategy.

This novel combination of a) building on familiar national plans, b) employing open-source models that can be rapidly adapted to national particularities, c) comparing the performance of green versus business-as-usual stimulus plans and d) obtaining immediate qualitative input from national stakeholders can serve as a model for many countries around the world, which have requested assistance from international organisations on designing recovery packages during late 2020 and early 2021.

Section 2 of the paper describes the main stages of this approach, the recovery measures that were considered, and the sustainability criteria used for assessing these measures. Section 3 presents the results of the energy and economic models employed, while it also provides an overview of the multi-criteria assessment, which makes use of input from a targeted group of stakeholders. Finally, Section 4 outlines the lessons learnt from this study and their relevance for science-policy interactions in other national contexts.

2. Methods

2.1. Workflow

Post-pandemic stimulus packages have to promote short-term economic growth without compromising long-term energy and climate goals. To address these multiple requirements, it was necessary to assess promising green economic recovery measures that had already been identified in the public discourse.

We started from existing plans announced by the Finance Minister in May 2020 as well as from measures included in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) submitted to the European Commission in January 2020 [13]. Similarly, if the framework is applied in a non-EU country, the approach might begin with a breakdown of the measures included in a country's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. In summary, the approach involves proposing interventions which expand measures already announced or planned by national authorities; receiving feedback from stakeholders to obtain a first reality check; assessing measures with proper criteria that account for multiple sustainability objectives in the short (up to 2022) and long term (up to 2030); and prioritising measures on the basis of this assessment, considering budget availability.

Above all, it was important to ensure active participation of decision makers in the process, by using transparent workflows. This enables Ministry officers to provide input at various stages of this work, and ensures overall process accountability. In so doing we tend towards U4RIA guidelines. U4RIA is an acronym for Ubuntu,1 Retrievability, Reusability, Repeatability, Re-constructability, Interoperability and Auditability. It aims to further good governance and sound scientific principles to energy modelling for policy support [14].

Specifically, the workflow consisted of the following stages:

1.
Screening and preliminary assessment of potential green stimulus measures. In April 2020 we published a policy brief, alerting policymakers on the need to ensure that economic stimulus measures would enable the green transition [15]. We identified a first list of measures that could be implemented quickly, with positive employment and environmental impacts.
2.
Dissemination of the list of measures and stakeholders' feedback. The initial list of green recovery measures was circulated to Ministries of Finance, Environment, Energy and Transport, European Commission officials, NGO representatives and academics. Stakeholders focused on the need to ensure low administrative burden to allow fast implementation, and the importance of aligning the proposals with measures announced by the national government.
3.
Interaction with national business associations. In mid-May 2020, after the first wave of the pandemic had been contained and public discussions focused on the ‘return to normality’, the national Federation of Employers and Industrialists (OEB) set up a working group on the green restart of the economy, in which we participated. OEB used our proposals as a starting point and supplemented them with additional measures targeted to enterprises.
4.
Enriched list of stimulus measures. Based on the discussions in OEB's working group, a revised list of green stimulus measures was sent to the Finance Minister of Cyprus in mid-June 2020. Three types of measures were included:
- •
  Those which complemented general stimulus measures already announced by the Finance Minister;
- •
  Measures included in the official NECP;
- •
  New measures that could be implemented quickly, including institutional reforms that could facilitate the achievement of long-term climate neutrality.

Thirteen interventions were thus identified (Table 1 ). Details about each measure are provided in Appendix A.

5.
Preparing a list of criteria for the assessment of recovery measures. A list of sustainability criteria was created, using as a starting point a comprehensive checklist developed by the World Bank [16] especially for post-COVID19 economic stimulus interventions. Some of those criteria were less relevant for the measures considered here and were omitted. Two more criteria were added: the technical and/or financial viability of each measure, and its anticipated social acceptance, related to its affordability. Appendix B provides the final list of criteria.
6.
Identifying the appropriate methodology to assess impacts. For each measure, the energy, climate, and employment impact had to be assessed through simple calculations or with the aid of models available for Cyprus. For some measures, such as energy renovations in buildings, detailed building stock models were not available, so the analysis had to rely on simple calculations. For other measures, such as the promotion of sustainable modes of transport, an OSeMOSYS model of the Cypriot energy system provided short- and long-term projections on energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Economic impacts can sometimes be modelled through the available input-output model of the Cypriot economy, but others require a qualitative assessment based, for instance, on the percentage of domestic capital and labour inputs for the considered activity. Taliotis et al. [17] describe the energy and economic models in more detail. Since these models are open-source and have been used for preparing the NECP, national Ministries have full access to them and can conduct follow-up analyses if needed.
7.
Assignment of scores and weights for each sustainability criterion. After the model-based energy and economic assessment of the measures was completed, qualitative assessments followed for the rest of the criteria. Stakeholder input was sought, and a specific workshop was organised with representatives of different governmental departments, the private sector, and NGOs. Each stakeholder provided a score of each recovery measure by criterion and a weight for all criteria.
8.
Prioritisation of measures. Stakeholder data were processed and, along with model-based results, provided a final ranking of the proposed interventions. These were communicated to all decision makers (DMs). Governmental authorities are able to use these to prioritise recovery measures.

Table 1.

Green recovery measures considered in this paper.

Name of measure	Sector	Investment cost 2020–2022 (M€)	Investment cost 2020–2030 (M€)	of which from public funds
M1. Immediate launch of grants for energy renovations of buildings from unused budget of 2020–21	Buildings	30	30	50%
M2. New grant scheme for energy renovations of existing buildings, 2021-27	Buildings	70	140	50%
M3. Grants for energy renovations of buildings under construction for upgrade to Near-Zero Energy Buildings	Buildings	70	70	50%
M4. Installation of smart electricity meters	Electricity	35	55	100%
M5. Virtual net billing for encouragement of photovoltaic installations by enterprises	Electricity	29	136	0%
M6. Subsidy to loans of businesses certified with an environmental management system	Industry	2	2	100%
M7. Business4Climate scheme - grants to enterprises with a verified low-carbon action plan up to 2030	Industry	5	10	30%
M8. Implementation of existing Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMP)	Transport	80	100	100%
M9. Construction of tram in the capital city of Nicosia	Transport	0	225	100%
M10. Scrappage scheme for old cars to be replaced with battery electric vehicles	Transport	12	12	30%
M11. Replacement of streetlights in municipalities and villages with energy efficient lighting	Electricity	45	45	100%
M12. Tree planting along urban and intercity roads	Nature	17	85	100%
M13. Fiscally neutral carbon taxation for economic sectors out of the EU Emissions Trading System	Horizontal	0.5	0.5	100%
Total		395	911

Measure no.	Measure description
M13	Fiscally neutral carbon tax reform for sectors out of the EU Emissions Trading System
M5	Virtual net billing for encouragement of photovoltaic installations
M2	New grants for energy renovations of existing buildings, 2021-27
M7	Grants to enterprises with verified low-carbon action plan up to 2030
M1	Immediate launch of grants for energy renovations from unused budget of 2020–21
M8	Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans
M6	Subsidy to loans of green businesses
M9	Construction of tram in the capital city of Nicosia
M12	Tree planting
M3	Energy renovations of buildings under construction within 2020
M4	Installation of smart electricity meters
M11	Energy efficient street lighting
M10	Replacement of old cars with electric vehicles

#	Title	Description	Comments
M1	Immediate launch of grant scheme for energy renovations of buildings from unused budget of 2020–21	For energy renovations in existing residential, commercial and public buildings which can become near-zero energy buildings or can yield energy savings of at least 40%.	€30 million (national and EU funds) can be used immediately because €15 million are still available from EU Structural Funds of the period 2014–2020. Proposal: Spend this amount by December 31, 2021.
M2	New grant scheme for energy renovations of existing buildings, 2021-27	For energy renovations in existing residential, commercial and public buildings which can become near-zero energy buildings or can yield energy savings of at least 40%.	€70 million (national and EU funds) have been requested for the period 2021–27 (50% of the total cost). Proposal: Spend this amount by December 31, 2022, with the prospect to increase it later. The previous similar programme was successful. As the proposed scheme is much larger, simpler procedures are needed to ensure fast implementation.
M3	Grants for energy renovations of buildings under construction for upgrade to Near-Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB)	Increased state guarantees and/or grants and/or tax credits to residential & commercial buildings under construction (which have not been connected to the electricity grid yet) and to buildings that have obtained a building permit after January 1, 2018, so that they can immediately be upgraded to NZEB.	Grants of €70 million could be allocated between residential & commercial buildings (maximum: 7000 buildings). If increased state guarantees are adopted there is no immediate cost. This measure will yield immediate improvement in energy efficiency of new buildings beyond mandatory requirements. New proposal, currently not included in National Energy and Climate Plan.
M4	Installation of smart electricity meters	Installation of 400.000 smart meters by EAC	Important measure to enable high penetration of renewable electricity, in implementation of Directive 2019/944/EU. The installation is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2027. Proposal: complete this installation by December 31, 2023 in collaboration with private installers. Implementation cost estimated at €55 million.
M5	Virtual net billing for encouragement of photovoltaic installations by enterprises	PV installation by enterprises with virtual net billing (or virtual net-metering for multi-apartment buildings) method and/or from individuals through renting the roofs of their houses	Regulatory change is required with the consent of CERA. It is a low-cost measure with large benefits for the penetration of renewable electricity. Administrative cost estimated at €500,000. New proposal, currently not included in National Energy and Climate Plan.
M6	Subsidy to loans of businesses certified with an environmental management system	As an economic stimulus measure, Interest rates of business loans will be subsidised by the government. It is proposed that the interest rate to be subsidised is 0.5% higher for those firms that have adopted or will adopt the EU Eco-Management and Labelling Scheme EMAS by December 31, 2021. The certification process can be subsidised with a small grant of the order of €2000 per firm.	This measure will cost approximately €2 million and can yield fast improvement in energy efficiency and/or environmental performance of businesses. New proposal, currently not included in National Energy and Climate Plan.
M7	Business4Climate scheme – grants to enterprises with a verified low-carbon action plan up to 2030	Continuation of the pilot scheme ‘Business4Climate’, which provides grants to firms of all sectors which provide a credible Action Plan to reduce their carbon footprint by 2030	Grants of €20 million can be allocated. This measure will yield fast improvement in energy efficiency and/or environmental performance of businesses.
M8	Implementation of existing Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans	Immediate implementation of the SUMP of Limassol which has been completed. Implementation of SUMPs of Nicosia and Larnaca as soon as the respective plans have been finished. (Does not include cost of additional buses)	SUMPs are extremely important for the elimination of fossil fuel use in transport. Implementation cost of Limassol SUMP: €170 million up to 2032. Proposal: Provide €100 million for fast application of SUMP of Limassol + start of implementation of SUMPs of the cities of Larnaca & Nicosia by December 31, 2022.
M9	Construction of tram in the capital city of Nicosia	Construction of tram lines in Nicosia	This is s a longer-term measure, with an investment cost of €225 million, but with potentially significant impact, hence it is added separately from the broader SUMP measure. Also, even though focused on international rail travel, the EU's draft Green Recovery Plan puts an emphasis on shifting passenger transport to rail services.
M10	Scrappage scheme for old cars to be replaced with battery electric vehicles	Grant to scrap an old car and replace it with a fully electric car; scheme to last for two years, 2021 and 2022	5000 Euros grant for each old car that is scrapped and replaced with a fully electric one. The total budget of the measures is €10 million.
M11	Replacement of streetlights in municipalities and villages with energy efficient lighting	Replacement of street lighting in municipalities and communities. In 2018 a financial instrument was established for Municipalities and Communities, through which they can apply for a loan to the Ministry of the Interior for the replacement of street lighting. At the moment, eleven municipalities have been approved. It is expected that more Municipalities will participate in the financial instrument in 2020 and 2021.	Very cost-effective measure. Total cost estimated at €45 million. Target: Change 300.000 lamps by December 31, 2021 - currently about half of these lamps are planned to change by that time.
M12	Tree planting along urban and intercity roads	Extensive tree planting of up to 650,000 trees along the urban road network and up to 350,000 trees along the interurban road network.	1. Shading, lowering temperatures and better walking and cycling conditions may cause an additional shift from car to sustainable modes of transport. 2. CO₂ absorption. 3. Aesthetic upgrade and urban landscaping of all cities and rural routes. Total cost of implementation is estimated at €85 million.
M13	Fiscally neutral carbon taxation for economic sectors out of the EU Emissions Trading System	Tax up to €120/tonne of carbon dioxide on non-ETS sectors, i.e. on all fossil fuels except those used for power generation and by cement plant and brick factories.	Gradual introduction within 5 years. Expected public revenues in full implementation: €100–150 million/year. Tax revenues could be rebated to all households to increase political acceptance. Administrative cost estimated at €500,000.

	Short name	Explanation	Related SDGs
Environmental impact	Energy	Energy savings (ktoe) per million Euros invested	7
	CO2	CO₂ emission savings (tn) per million Euros invested	13
	Other Environmental Impact	Other short-term environmental impact (on air quality, nature, water resources, land productivity, biodiversity etc)	3, 6, 11
Economic/social impact	Economic multiplier	Economic output generation (million €) per million Euros invested	8
	Jobs	Net employment generation (persons) per million Euros invested	8
	Demand in affected sectors	Does the initiative generate demand in the most affected sectors? Or does this initiative target new or different sectors? If in a different sector, can the workforce easily shift to this new sector? Does the initiative include measures to facilitate the transition of workers and the required investments?	4, 8
	Time to Implement	How long will it take to fully implement this initiative and to create jobs and activity (including project design, consultation processes, budget mobilization, procurement, etc.)?	8
	Infrastructure & Productivity	Does the measure improve existing infrastructure? Does this affect productivity in the short term?	9
	Technical feasibility	Is the intervention technically feasible with the country's capacity and know-how?
	Affordability	Is there a risk that vulnerable households or firms will incur high costs due to the measure?	1, 10
	Social acceptance	Is the measure socially acceptable? Can it contribute to social objectives like reducing poverty and precarity?	1, 10

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Agriculture	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Forestry	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mining	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Food Manufacturing	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Textile	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Wood and Paper	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Chemical and Plastic Products	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Metal Products	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Machinery and Equipment	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
Energy	0.09	0.12	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07
Construction	0.35	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Trade	0.42	0.33	−0.19	−0.19	−0.19	−0.19	−0.20	−0.20	−0.20	−0.20
Accommodation and Food Services	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
Transportation	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Banking-Financing	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Real Estate	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Public Administration	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Education	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
Health	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
Other Services	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Agriculture	0.22	3.37	2.29	1.42	1.19	1.18	1.18	1.18	0.20	0.19
Forestry	0.01	0.18	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01
Mining	0.01	0.18	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01
Food Manufacturing	0.72	10.88	7.41	4.59	3.84	3.83	3.82	3.81	0.64	0.62
Textile	0.19	2.92	1.99	1.23	1.03	1.03	1.03	1.02	0.17	0.17
Wood and Paper	0.04	0.62	0.42	0.26	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.04	0.04
Chemical and Plastic Products	0.63	9.48	6.45	4.00	3.35	3.34	3.33	3.32	0.55	0.54
Metal Products	0.10	1.50	1.02	0.63	0.53	0.53	0.52	0.52	0.09	0.09
Machinery and Equipment	1.65	24.71	16.83	10.43	8.73	8.70	8.68	8.65	1.44	1.42
Energy	0.10	1.50	1.02	0.63	0.53	0.53	0.53	0.53	0.09	0.09
Construction	0.60	9.04	6.16	3.82	3.19	3.18	3.18	3.17	0.53	0.52
Trade	0.94	14.18	9.66	5.99	5.01	4.99	4.98	4.96	0.83	0.81
Accommodation and Food Services	1.08	16.21	11.04	6.84	5.72	5.71	5.69	5.67	0.95	0.93
Transportation	1.51	22.66	15.43	9.57	8.00	7.98	7.96	7.93	1.32	1.30
Banking-Financing	2.22	33.32	22.69	14.07	11.77	11.73	11.70	11.66	1.95	1.91
Real Estate	0.79	11.90	8.10	5.02	4.20	4.19	4.18	4.17	0.69	0.68
Public Administration	0.76	11.42	7.78	4.82	4.03	4.02	4.01	4.00	0.67	0.66
Education	0.56	8.34	5.68	3.52	2.94	2.94	2.93	2.92	0.49	0.48
Health	0.51	7.59	5.17	3.21	2.68	2.67	2.66	2.66	0.44	0.44
Other Services	2.01	30.23	20.58	12.76	10.67	10.64	10.61	10.58	1.77	1.73

Sector	Description NACE
Agriculture	A01, A03
Forestry	A02
Mining	Β
Food Manufacturing	C10, C11, C12
Textile	C13, C15
Wood and Paper	C16, C17, C18
Chemical and Plastic Products	C19–C23
Metal Products	C24, C25
Machinery and Equipment	C26–C33
Energy	D
Construction	F
Trade	G45--G47
Accommodation and Food Services	I
Transportation	H49–H53
Banking-Financing	K64–K66
Real Estate	L68
Public Administration	O
Education	P
Health	Q
Other Services	E, J58–63, M69–75, N, R, S, T, U

	Economic multiplier	Net new jobs	Demand in affected sectors	Time to Implement	Infrastructure & Productivity	Technical feasibility	Affordability	Social acceptance
Economic multiplier	1
Net new jobs		1
Demand in affected sectors			1
Time to Implement				1
Infrastructure & Productivity					1
Technical feasibility						1
Affordability							1
Social acceptance								1

	Energy savings	CO2 savings	Environmental Impact	Low-carbon technologies/strategies
Energy savings	1
CO2 savings		1
Environmental Impact			1
Low-carbon technologies/strategies				1

	Economic multiplier	Net new jobs	Energy security	Infrastructure & Productivity	R&D and innovation	Market Failures	Economic/Climate Resilience	Decarbonisation/Effect on NDC
Economic multiplier	1
Net new jobs		1
Energy security			1
Infrastructure & Productivity				1
R&D and innovation					1
Market Failures						1
Economic/Climate Resilience							1
Decarbonisation/Effect on NDC								1

		Short-term Impacts
		Energy/Environmental	Economic/Social
		Environmental Impact	Demand in affected sectors	Time to Implement	Infrastructure & Productivity	Technical feasibility	Affordability	Social acceptance
M1	Immediate launch of grant scheme for energy renovations of buildings from unused budget of 2020–21
M2	New grant scheme for energy renovations of existing buildings, 2021–27
M3	Grants for energy renovations of buildings under construction for upgrade to Near-Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB)
M4	Installation of smart electricity meters
M5	Virtual net billing for encouragement of photovoltaic installations by enterprises
M6	Subsidy to loans of businesses certified with an environmental management system
M7	Business4Climate scheme – grants to enterprises with a verified low-carbon actin plan up to 2030
M8	Implementation of existing Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans
M9	Construction of tram in the capital city of Nicosia
M10	Scrappage scheme for old cars to be replaced with battery electric vehicles
M11	Replacement of streetlights in municipalities and villages with energy efficient lighting
M12	Tree planting along urban and intercity roads
M13	Fiscally neutral carbon taxation for economic sectors out of the EU Emissions Trading System

	A.1.1	A.1.2	A.1.3	A2.1	A2.2	A2.3	A2.4	A2.5	A2.6	A2.7	A2.8
DM1	0.016	0.016	0.031	0.007	0.006	0.006	0.008	0.005	0.014	0.004	0.012
DM2	0.006	0.019	0.059	0.003	0.017	0.003	0.004	0.004	0.015	0.012	0.025
DM3	0.005	0.014	0.014	0.007	0.017	0.048	0.048	0.011	0.008	0.002	0.025
DM4	0.007	0.007	0.007	0.003	0.007	0.005	0.016	0.011	0.035	0.035	0.035
DM5	0.006	0.041	0.036	0.004	0.021	0.008	0.007	0.008	0.010	0.012	0.013
DM6	0.254	0.254	0.254	0.019	0.005	0.043	0.014	0.005	0.005	0.002	0.002
DM7	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.006	0.004	0.055	0.003	0.009	0.015	0.012
DM8	0.002	0.009	0.009	0.004	0.004	0.021	0.006	0.021	0.021	0.021	0.004
DM9	0.001	0.006	0.007	0.005	0.011	0.032	0.032	0.008	0.005	0.002	0.017
DM10	0.008	0.042	0.017	0.009	0.013	0.009	0.021	0.010	0.008	0.031	0.031

	B.1.1	B.1.2	B.1.3	B.1.4	B2.1	B2.2	B2.3	B2.4	B2.5	B2.6	B2.7	B2.8
DM1	0.136	0.136	0.229	0.081	0.033	0.033	0.039	0.023	0.021	0.016	0.055	0.073
DM2	0.019	0.039	0.263	0.096	0.014	0.045	0.047	0.017	0.046	0.013	0.132	0.105
DM3	0.022	0.158	0.158	0.063	0.034	0.077	0.058	0.038	0.030	0.018	0.074	0.071
DM4	0.009	0.009	0.009	0.076	0.027	0.012	0.012	0.119	0.174	0.038	0.174	0.174
DM5	0.017	0.135	0.135	0.130	0.012	0.044	0.047	0.015	0.043	0.020	0.102	0.134
DM6	0.019	0.025	0.029	0.052	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.001	0.002	0.003	0.003	0.001
DM7	0.191	0.191	0.191	0.191	0.004	0.004	0.018	0.018	0.010	0.007	0.023	0.026
DM8	0.006	0.023	0.023	0.073	0.016	0.168	0.168	0.168	0.037	0.106	0.016	0.071
DM9	0.027	0.027	0.027	0.027	0.064	0.064	0.064	0.064	0.064	0.064	0.191	0.191
DM10	0.076	0.185	0.116	0.266	0.019	0.023	0.021	0.020	0.015	0.007	0.019	0.032

	Environmental			Economic/Social
	A.1.1	A.1.2	A.1.3	A2.1	A2.2	A2.3	A2.4	A2.5	A2.6	A2.7	A2.8
M1	0.025	0.149	4.000	0.000	7.935	4.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	4.000
M2	0.011	0.065	4.000	24.211	27.645	4.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	4.000
M3	0.015	0.063	4.000	5.504	9.819	4.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	4.000
M4	0.014	0.085	3.000	42.417	45.326	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000
M5	1.087	4.412	3.000	42.225	45.326	3.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	4.000
M6	0.272	1.103	3.000	8.083	14.601	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	3.000
M7	0.027	0.110	2.000	8.083	14.601	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	3.000
M8	0.307	0.581	4.000	29.061	2.065	4.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	3.000
M9	0.000	0.000	4.000	100.000	100.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	3.000
M10	0.022	0.037	3.000	6.967	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000
M11	0.077	0.451	4.000	2.771	13.007	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	4.000
M12	0.000	0.043	2.000	8.083	14.601	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	5.000
M13	100.000	100.000	3.000	8.083	14.601	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000

	Environmental				Economic/Social
	B.1.1	B.1.2	B.1.3	B.1.4	B2.1	B2.2	B2.3	B2.4	B2.5	B2.6	B2.7	B2.8
M1	0.044	0.260	4.000	4.000	30.072	92.328	4.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000
M2	0.019	0.105	5.000	5.000	9.420	87.621	5.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	5.000
M3	0.005	0.007	3.000	3.000	30.072	88.781	3.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
M4	0.011	0.049	4.000	4.000	30.072	89.555	3.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
M5	0.333	1.584	4.000	4.000	100.000	100.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
M6	0.083	0.384	3.000	3.000	26.812	88.072	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	3.000
M7	0.009	0.024	3.000	3.000	26.812	88.072	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	3.000
M8	0.194	0.344	5.000	5.000	21.739	0.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	5.000
M9	0.022	0.028	5.000	5.000	0.000	66.925	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	4.000
M10	0.008	0.000	3.000	3.000	21.739	79.884	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
M11	0.037	0.230	3.000	3.000	31.159	90.135	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000
M12	0.000	0.078	5.000	5.000	26.812	88.072	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000
M13	100.000	100.000	4.000	4.000	26.812	88.072	4.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	4.000

		Long-term Impacts
		Energy/Environmental		Economic/Social
		Low-carbon technologies / strategies	Environmental Impact	Energy security	Infrastructure & Productivity	R&D and innovation	Market Failures	Economic/Climate Resilience	Decarbonisation/Effect on NDC
M1	Immediate launch of grant scheme for energy renovations of buildings from unused budget of 2020–21
M2	New grant scheme for energy renovations of existing buildings, 2021–27
M3	Grants for energy renovations of buildings under construction for upgrade to Near-Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB)
M4	Installation of smart electricity meters
M5	Virtual net billing for encouragement of photovoltaic installations by enterprises
M6	Subsidy to loans of businesses certified with an environmental management system
M7	Business4Climate scheme – grants to enterprises with a verified low-carbon actin plan up to 2030
M8	Implementation of existing Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans
M9	Construction of tram in the capital city of Nicosia
M10	Scrappage scheme for old cars to be replaced with battery electric vehicles
M11	Replacement of streetlights in municipalities and villages with energy efficient lighting
M12	Tree planting along urban and intercity roads
M13	Fiscally neutral carbon taxation for economic sectors out of the EU Emissions Trading System

	A.1.1	A.1.2	A.1.3	A2.1	A2.2	A2.3	A2.4	A2.5	A2.6	A2.7	A2.8
q	1	2	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
p	5	5	2	5	5	2	2	2	2	2	2
	B.1.1	B.1.2	B.1.3	B.1.4	B2.1	B2.2	B2.3	B2.4	B2.5	B2.6	B2.7	B2.8
q	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
p	5	5	2	2	5	5	2	2	2	2	2	2

	DM1	DM2	DM3	DM4	DM5	DM6	DM7	DM8	DM9	DM10
M1	0.024	0.128	0.153	−0.027	−0.319	−0.050	0.142	0.044	0.060	−0.008
M2	0.193	0.163	0.105	−0.001	−0.104	−0.055	0.148	−0.047	−0.054	−0.020
M3	−0.185	0.070	0.128	−0.022	−0.125	−0.076	−0.103	0.054	0.019	−0.108
M4	−0.066	−0.181	0.093	−0.318	0.050	−0.122	0.085	−0.431	0.068	0.031
M5	0.011	0.032	0.241	0.174	0.002	0.193	−0.059	−0.090	0.142	0.271
M6	−0.165	−0.180	−0.192	0.216	0.161	−0.059	−0.111	0.348	−0.019	−0.177
M7	−0.182	−0.018	0.054	0.208	0.056	0.022	−0.110	0.388	0.089	−0.096
M8	0.160	0.058	−0.467	0.011	0.104	−0.020	−0.056	0.037	−0.100	0.124
M9	0.147	0.032	−0.110	−0.038	0.015	−0.162	−0.075	−0.042	−0.237	0.126
M10	−0.266	−0.156	0.080	0.127	0.078	−0.074	−0.121	−0.378	−0.120	−0.226
M11	−0.162	−0.125	0.165	−0.143	−0.139	−0.025	−0.143	−0.022	0.018	−0.150
M12	0.156	0.144	0.069	−0.126	−0.160	−0.115	−0.018	−0.309	0.032	−0.124
M13	0.335	0.034	−0.320	−0.061	0.382	0.542	0.421	0.449	0.102	0.357

PERMALINK

Science policy frameworks for a post-pandemic green economic recovery

Theodoros Zachariadis

Elias Giannakis

Constantinos Taliotis

Marios Karmellos

Nestor Fylaktos

Mark Howells

Will Blyth

Stéphane Hallegatte

Abstract

1. Introduction

Fig. 1.

2. Methods

2.1. Workflow

Table 1.

2.2. Quantitative analysis

2.2.1. Energy modelling

2.2.2. Economic modelling

2.3. Multi-criteria assessment

2.3.1. Overview of the assessment framework

2.3.2. Stakeholder input

2.3.3. Sensitivity analysis

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Energy and economy model results

Fig. 2.

3.2. Multi-criteria assessment results

Fig. 3.

Table 2.

4. Conclusions

Author contributions statement

Declaration of competing interest

Acknowledgements

Footnotes

Appendices.

Appendix A. List of Green Recovery Measures

Table A. 1.

Appendix B. Assessment Criteria

Table B.1.

Appendix C. Input-Output model

Table C. 1.

Table C.2.

Table C. 3.

Table C. 4.

Table C. 5.

Table C. 6.

Table C. 7.

Table C. 8.

Table C. 9.

Table C.10.

Appendix D. Description of the AHP and PROMETHEE Methods

D.1. AHP Method

Fig. D.1.

Fig. D.2.

Fig. D.3.

D.2. PROMETHEE Method

Fig. D.4.

Appendix E. AHP and PROMETHEE Input Tables

Appendix F. Examples of Stakeholder Input

Table F.1.

Table F.2.

Table F.3.

Table F.4.

Table F.5.

Table F.6.

Data availability

References

Associated Data

Data Availability Statement

ACTIONS

PERMALINK

RESOURCES

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