Abstract
Objective
To analyze the impact of COVID‐19 on the number of births in Yucatan, Mexico during 2020 and 2021.
Material and Methods
A total of 470 651 live births occurred in Yucatan from January 1st, 2008, to December 31st, 2021, and were included in the analysis. The monthly number of births observed during January 2008–February 2020 was used to describe pre‐pandemic trends. Time‐series analysis was applied to examine whether the number of births observed from December 2020 (9 months after the beginning of the pandemic) to December 2021 differed from the expected values. Trends in the number of births according to maternal age, parity and education were examined to identify changes differentiated by sociodemographic characteristics.
Results
The number of births in 2021 decreased by 18% (5869 births) compared with 2019, which represents a reduction from 12.89 to 12.48 per thousand inhabitants. The observed number of births from December 2020 to July 2021 was significantly lower than the figure expected. April (expected = 2863 vs. observed = 1722), May (expected = 2948 vs. observed = 1990), and June (expected = 2997 vs. observed = 1978) 2021 showed the largest differences between expected and observed values. Then, from August to December 2021, the observed number of births fell within the expected range. Birth decline was slightly more pronounced among mothers between 20 and 29 years of age and in those without previous offspring.
Conclusion
We provide evidence of birth decline in Yucatan during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Birth rate reduction in Yucatan doubled the world average and young women without children were the most affected.
1. INTRODUCTION
Human reproduction is a complex process, change‐sensitive and environment‐dependent, thus the conditions surrounding the individual desire and ability for reproduction are of key importance (Campbell & Wood, 1994). Persistent food deprivation, high levels of energy expenditure, stress, and disruptions in economic systems are factors known to affect the number of births in populations, both through direct effects on female and male reproductive capacity and through decisions about childbearing. Historical events, including wars, disasters, economic crises, and pandemics, have demonstrably caused changes in fertility (Chandra et al., 2018; Nobles et al., 2015; Sobotka et al., 2011; Vandenbroucke, 2014).
The SARS‐CoV‐2 (COVID‐19) pandemic has dramatically impacted mortality and morbidity rates and transformed the lives of people around the world. Lockdowns established by health authorities in various countries modified the lifestyles of individuals and families. In general, individuals remained at home with little contact with relatives and members of their social group; lockdown was also accompanied by psychological distress, loneliness, poor interpersonal relationships, and anxiety (Yamamoto et al., 2020). Public places, including restaurants, churches, libraries, cinemas, beaches, and schools were closed for a variable number of weeks.
Parents had to take on of childcare and home office and women bore the brunt of this situation. The COVID‐19 pandemic has also had severe economic consequences on households, some of which are related to job losses and reductions in income (Rougeaux et al., 2022). The economic impact is expected to be higher in countries or regions with a greater dependence on economic activities based on activities such as tourism, sales, construction, and manufacturing.
Isolation (and its psychosocial consequences), economic insecurity, and slowdowns in plans to conceive owing to fear of infection could represent the main factors that may have influenced fertility in the context of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Since COVID‐19 affects older people more than other age groups, the mortality of parents is an unlikely mechanism through which fertility can be impacted. Humans are eco biopsychosocial beings, meaning that even though the reproductive biology of the population of childbearing age may not have been affected by the pandemic, there is an effect at a community level. Having family members and friends become sick or even die due to SARS‐CoV‐2 in traditional communities may well have affected every member of each family, and at some point, it is plausible to expect a change in family planning and consequently in births.
The first studies on the short‐term effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic have shown significant reductions in the number of births from December 2020, that is, ~9 months after the beginning of the pandemic, to the first months of 2021 (Aassve et al., 2021; Berrington et al., 2022; De Rose et al., 2022; McLaren et al., 2021; Silverman et al., 2022). Most of these studies have analyzed populations resident in high‐income countries, including the United States, Germany, France, Italy, Denmark, and the United Kingdom. Some other studies have developed projections regarding the potential effects of the pandemic on the number of births during the next few years based on population‐specific demographic trends (Berrington et al., 2022; Charles‐Edwards et al., 2021). The number of studies undertaken in populations located in low‐ and middle‐income countries or regions is limited (Backhaus, 2021; Kc et al., 2020; Silverio‐Murillo et al., 2021). A preliminary study of the phenomenon in Mexico was conducted by Silverio‐Murillo et al. (2021), who found that the national fertility rate declined by 10% for births occurring during between the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. Then in March 2021, the fertility rate began to rise again, and by May it had reached baseline levels.
The analysis of the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the birth rate is challenging because fluctuations and trends in fertility before the pandemic may produce imprecise interpretations of the changes occurring during and after the event. For example, in middle‐income countries such as Mexico, where noticeable economic disparities and cultural differences are present within and between regions, the average number of live births per woman has dramatically decreased in recent decades, from 6.7 in 1970 to 2.1 in 2020 (OECD, 2022). Therefore, analysis of the potential impacts of COVID‐19 should necessarily consider pre‐existing patterns of change in the number of births within these populations. Furthermore, the differential impact of COVID‐19 on the number of births in terms of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics is still poorly understood. Very few studies have found any differences in changes in birth rates depending on the type of health insurance used by women (Silverio‐Murillo et al., 2021; Silverman et al., 2022). For the present study, the underlying hypothesis is that the state of Yucatan faced an enhanced decrease in births during the pandemic, due to socioeconomic constraints from a prolonged lockdown period.
The main aim of this study was to analyze the variation in birth numbers during the COVID‐19 pandemic in the state of Yucatan, Mexico. For this purpose, we first examined birth counts from January 2008 to February 2020 to understand the trend before the COVID‐19 pandemic. We then compared the observed number of births from December 2020 (9 months after COVID‐19 reached Mexico) to December 2021 with expected values. To identify if a particular group of women was more affected by the pandemic, we examined the number of births according to categories of maternal age, number of previous offspring and education.
Yucatan is a state located in the southeast of Mexico, characterized by the preservation of customs, and by a tradition of living with and caring for extended families. In 2010, it had a population of 1 955 577 people and by 2020 it had reached 2 320 898 inhabitants, distributed in 106 rural and urban municipalities. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.9% in its total population (INEGI, 2010, 2020). Mexican authorities announced a countrywide lockdown starting on March 23rd, 2020, which lasted until May 31st, 2020. After this, every state regulated social movement and confluence in public places.
In Yucatan, restrictions on mobility and use of public spaces lasted until August 2020, when the second wave of COVID‐19 hit the state. By May 31st, 2022, the number of confirmed cases of COVID‐19 had reached 111 452 and deaths had risen to 6933 (DGE, 2022).
2. METHODS
A dataset on dates of birth used for the present study was obtained from datasets generated by the Mexican Subsystem of Birth Registration (SINAC, by its acronym in Spanish). Since 2008, SINAC has been responsible for the compilation and validation of data collected on every birth in Mexico and for the construction of annual datasets to provide reliable, accessible, and comparable information. In Yucatan, SINAC compiles information from more than 100 public and private hospitals distributed across the state. A very small proportion of infants (1%) were born in mothers' households with support given by traditional midwives. Mothers who gave birth in their households should attend the nearest hospital or health unit for a neonatal assessment and provide sociodemographic information to obtain the birth certificate of their infants. Therefore, infants born in mothers' households are included in this study. For this study, we used datasets corresponding to the births registered in Yucatan from January 1st, 2008, to December 31st, 2021. We restricted our analysis to those cases where mothers were resident in Yucatan (>98%). The final dataset consisted of 470 651 live births. We extracted from each dataset the following variables: date of birth, maternal age and years of education, and number of previous live offspring.
We define the pandemic as having started in Yucatan in March 2020. However, we expected to observe effects 9 months later, that is, starting in December 2020. Data on births observed from January 2008 to February 2020 were used to describe trends before COVID‐19 pandemic (pre‐pandemic period) and to estimate the expected number of births for the period December 2020–December 2021.
2.1. Statistical analyses
Trends before the COVID‐19 pandemic were examined visually by plotting the annual number of births and tabling the monthly number of births. We also calculated the crude birth rate for the period under study; the crude birth rate per year was estimated as a ratio between live births that occurred in Yucatan and the number of person‐years residing in Yucatan in the period and expressed this as births per 1000 population.
Time‐series analysis was applied to examine whether the number of births observed from December 2020 (9 months after the beginning of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Mexico) to December 2021 differed from the expected values. For this purpose, we used the Box‐Jenkins ARIMA model for the 266 pre‐pandemic months (from January 2008 to February 2020) to estimate the expected number of births. The best fitting model estimates expected values that approximate to what would occur if the circumstances that produced earlier observed values had remained unchanged over the COVID‐19 period under study. We then estimated monthly differences between expected and observed numbers of births for the period of interest. An unexpected number of births was defined as an observed value outside the expected 95% prediction interval (95% PI). The residuals of ARIMA models satisfied the assumptions of normality. We finally examined the number of births (and percentages) by categories of maternal age (1: <20 years, 2: 20–29 years, 3: ≥30 years); the number of previous offspring (1: none, 2: one, 3: two or more); and education (1. low: primary and junior high school, 2. medium: high school, 3. high: university and more) during the entire period to identify if potential changes caused by the pandemic differed depending on the women's sociodemographic characteristics.
2.2. Ethical concerns
Retrospective, secondary, anonymized datasets were used under permission from the Ministry of Health of the State of Yucatan for the purpose of the present study. The health authorities exempted this research from ethical review because it involved non‐identifiable data and datasets are in the public domain.
3. RESULTS
Figure 1 shows the annual trend in the number of births registered in Yucatan during 2008–2021, and Table 1 presents the number of births per month and year for this period. Regarding the pre‐pandemic period, the yearly number of births remained relatively stable from 2008 to 2018. During 2019, the number of births decreased by about 5% in comparison to the previous year, and this decline was maintained for most of 2020. An analysis of birth rate variations since 2008 reveals that there has been a continuous decrease in the birth rate in Yucatan: the birth rate was 14.62 per thousand inhabitants and every year since it has been decreasing by 0.23 on average; most noticeably, in 2021 it registered the largest decrease in the period, with a 1.41 drop (to 11.48 × 1000 inhabitants).
FIGURE 1.
Trend in the number of births in Yucatan, Mexico, during 2008–2021
TABLE 1.
Absolute number of births by month and year in Yucatan State during 2008–2021
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2338 | 2372 | 2335 | 2515 | 2575 | 2702 | 3018 | 3200 | 3323 | 3206 | 2848 | 2769 | 33 201 |
| 2009 | 2727 | 2286 | 2648 | 2644 | 2661 | 2663 | 3043 | 3447 | 3455 | 3371 | 3000 | 2884 | 34 829 |
| 2010 | 2727 | 2319 | 2640 | 2493 | 2647 | 2651 | 2902 | 3018 | 3449 | 3289 | 3020 | 2891 | 34 046 |
| 2011 | 2726 | 2087 | 2516 | 2402 | 2503 | 2640 | 3130 | 3340 | 3391 | 3079 | 2929 | 2874 | 33 617 |
| 2012 | 2708 | 2462 | 2762 | 2699 | 2767 | 2751 | 3210 | 3451 | 3371 | 3403 | 2972 | 2811 | 35 367 |
| 2013 | 2860 | 2456 | 2830 | 2625 | 2686 | 2634 | 3116 | 3474 | 3552 | 3335 | 2897 | 2800 | 35 265 |
| 2014 | 2777 | 2483 | 2779 | 2809 | 2967 | 2781 | 3086 | 3280 | 3605 | 3448 | 3204 | 3127 | 36 346 |
| 2015 | 3007 | 2581 | 2894 | 2592 | 2757 | 2797 | 3088 | 3525 | 3782 | 3561 | 3117 | 3052 | 36 753 |
| 2016 | 2639 | 2485 | 2804 | 2584 | 2588 | 2475 | 2814 | 3355 | 3496 | 3391 | 3086 | 2879 | 34 596 |
| 2017 | 2712 | 2192 | 2668 | 2551 | 2598 | 2618 | 2974 | 3308 | 3329 | 3348 | 3073 | 2947 | 34 318 |
| 2018 | 2673 | 2270 | 2641 | 2576 | 2607 | 2581 | 2902 | 3362 | 3331 | 3337 | 2972 | 2762 | 34 014 |
| 2019 | 2636 | 2424 | 2524 | 2446 | 2527 | 2492 | 2731 | 2913 | 3252 | 3100 | 2628 | 2589 | 32 262 |
| 2020 | 2430 | 1946 | 2236 | 2247 | 2358 | 2416 | 2543 | 2880 | 3006 | 2914 | 2531 | 2137 | 29 644 |
| 2021 | 1810 | 1802 | 1986 | 1722 | 1990 | 1978 | 2323 | 2526 | 2832 | 2634 | 2447 | 2343 | 26 393 |
Note: Months in a calendar year (abbreviations in the order): January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December.
In general, the number of births observed during 2021 decreased by 18% (5869 births) compared to 2019. As for time series analysis, Table 2 presents the expected and observed numbers of births, as well as the 95% PI for expected values from December 2020 to December 2021. The observed number of births fell outside the 95% PI from December 2020 to July 2021. In each month of this period, the observed number of births was smaller than expected. The largest differences, in absolute values and percentages, between the expected and observed numbers of births, were registered for April, May, and June 2021. From August to December 2021, the observed number of births fell within 95% PI for expected values.
TABLE 2.
Observed and expected numbers of births from December 2020 to December 2021
| Month/year | Observed | Expected | 95% PI | Absolute difference | % Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2020 | 2137 | 2636 | 2219–3053 | −499* | 19 |
| Jan 2021 | 1810 | 2627 | 2115–3138 | −817* | 31 |
| Feb 2021 | 1802 | 2676 | 2105–3247 | −874* | 33 |
| Mar 2021 | 1986 | 2764 | 2174–3355 | −778* | 28 |
| Apr 2021 | 1722 | 2863 | 2272–3454 | −1141* | 40 |
| May 2021 | 1990 | 2948 | 2350–3546 | −958* | 32 |
| Jun 2021 | 1978 | 2997 | 2376–3619 | −1019* | 34 |
| Jul 2021 | 2323 | 3005 | 2354–3655 | −682* | 23 |
| Ago 2021 | 2526 | 2973 | 2301–3645 | −447 | 15 |
| Sep 2021 | 2832 | 2916 | 2237–3596 | −84 | 3 |
| Oct 2021 | 2634 | 2851 | 2171–3538 | −217 | 8 |
| Nov 2021 | 2447 | 2795 | 2113–3478 | −348 | 12 |
| Dec 2021 | 2343 | 2762 | 2071–3453 | −419 | 15 |
p < .05.
Figure 2 shows the trends in the percentages of births according to maternal sociodemographic characteristics. For the pre‐pandemic period, the number of births to women under 30, those without previous offspring and those with low levels of education decreased slightly. In contrast, the number of births to women older than 30, those with one or more previous offspring and those with medium and high level of education increased slightly during this period (Table 3). During 2021, a more pronounced decline can be observed in the number of births to women between 20 and 29 years of age and those without previous offspring and a more pronounced increase in the number of births to women over 30 and those with two or more previous offspring, compared with the previous years.
FIGURE 2.
Trends in the percentages of births occurring in Yucatan State by categories of maternal age (A), parity (B) and education level (C) from 2008 to 2021
TABLE 3.
Absolute number and percentages of births occurring in Yucatan State by maternal age, number of previous offspring and education levels from 2008 to 2021
| Year | Age | Number of previous offspring | Education level | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <20 years | 20–29 years | ≥30 years | None | One | Two or more | Low | Medium | High | |
| 2008 | 5903 (18.0%) | 18 408 (56.3%) | 8407 (25.7%) | 12 695 (38.5%) | 9900 (30.0%) | 10 363 (31.4%) | 23 677 (73.5%) | 4886 (15.2%) | 3642 (11.3%) |
| 2009 | 6243 (18.2%) | 19 320 (56.2%) | 8824 (25.7%) | 13 737 (39.6%) | 10 207 (29.4%) | 10 790 (31.1%) | 24 653 (72.9%) | 5313 (15.7%) | 3860 (11.4%) |
| 2010 | 6112 (18.1%) | 18 931 (56.0%) | 8758 (25.9%) | 13 027 (38.3%) | 10 545 (31.0%) | 10 406 (30.6%) | 23 585 (71.7%) | 5250 (15.9%) | 4064 (12.4%) |
| 2011 | 6218 (18.5%) | 18 731 (55.8%) | 8639 (25.7%) | 12 731 (38.0%) | 10 469 (31.3%) | 10 295 (30.7%) | 23 012 (70.9%) | 5449 (16.8%) | 4000 (12.3%) |
| 2012 | 6448 (18.2%) | 19 517 (55.2%) | 9394 (26.6%) | 13 808 (39.1%) | 10 869 (30.8%) | 10 604 (30.1%) | 23 830 (69.1%) | 5921 (17.2%) | 4743 (13.8%) |
| 2013 | 6731 (19.1%) | 19 356 (54.9%) | 9176 (26.0%) | 13 800 (39.2%) | 10 819 (30.7%) | 10 598 (30.1%) | 23 784 (69.2%) | 6290 (18.3%) | 4317 (12.6%) |
| 2014 | 6744 (18.6%) | 19 888 (54.7%) | 9714 (26.7%) | 14 186 (39.1%) | 11 310 (31.1%) | 10 819 (29.8%) | 23 703 (66.9%) | 6614 (18.7%) | 5065 (14.3%) |
| 2015 | 6571 (18.0%) | 20 053 (54.9%) | 9842 (26.9%) | 14 139 (38.6%) | 11 618 (31.7%) | 10 888 (29.7%) | 23 335 (66.1%) | 6704 (18.9%) | 5282 (14.9%) |
| 2016 | 6099 (17.6%) | 19 175 (55.4%) | 9316 (26.9%) | 13 078 (38.0%) | 11 062 (32.2%) | 10 261 (29.8%) | 19 377 (58.4%) | 8528 (25.7%) | 5283 (15.9%) |
| 2017 | 6183 (18.0%) | 18 585 (54.2%) | 9540 (27.8%) | 12 784 (37.3%) | 11 168 (32.6%) | 10 336 (30.1%) | 18 941 (57.8%) | 8740 (26.7%) | 5120 (15.6%) |
| 2018 | 5730 (16.9%) | 18 478 (54.3%) | 9796 (28.8%) | 12 323 (36.3%) | 11 088 (32.6%) | 10 570 (31.1%) | 18 839 (57.8%) | 8664 (26.6%) | 5102 (15.7%) |
| 2019 | 5260 (16.3%) | 17 438 (54.1%) | 9564 (29.6%) | 11 457 (35.6%) | 10 549 (32.7%) | 10 222 (31.7%) | 17 580 (56.6%) | 8303 (26.7%) | 5168 (16.6%) |
| 2020 | 4591 (15.5%) | 16 042 (54.1%) | 9020 (30.4%) | 10 713 (36.1%) | 9540 (32.2%) | 9388 (31.7%) | 15 462 (52.8%) | 7990 (27.3%) | 5815 (19.9%) |
| 2021 | 3814 (14.5%) | 13 920 (52.7%) | 8659 (32.8%) | 8997 (34.1%) | 8686 (32.9%) | 8706 (33.0%) | 13 696 (53.0%) | 6767 (26.2%) | 5377 (20.8%) |
4. DISCUSSION
In the present study, we present the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the number of births in the state of Yucatan, in Mexico. Even though social distancing measures may have been comparable to those in other regions, cultural and socially‐rooted traditions and lifestyles in Yucatan may have had an influence on family planning during the pandemic. The birth rate trends indicate an average continuous annual decline of 0.23, which increased with the pandemic to 0.70 in 2021, according to the World Health Organization Global Observatory (2022); but our results show that the decrease in Yucatan was double the global reduction in birth rates, that is, a decrease of 1.41 per 1000 inhabitants.
Our results show that the number of births observed from December 2020 (9 months after the COVID‐19 outbreak) to July 2021 was significantly lower than the expected figure. The absolute reduction in the number of births in 2021 was 18% compared to 2019. Birth rate decline in Yucatan during the pandemic is consistent with that found in other populations. Results of comparisons among populations regarding the size of reductions in the number of births are difficult to interpret due to differences in the periods studied in each population and the parameters used in the analyses of available studies. Short‐term effects of COVID‐19 have been studied in England and Wales by Berrington et al. (2022) who found a reduction in fertility rate during 2020, which was largely due to fewer births in December, a drop of 8% in comparison with December 2019. In their study conducted in New York, McLaren et al. (2021) compared the number of births occurring between January and March 2021 and those occurring in the same months of the previous year, finding a reduction of about 23%, a figure higher than ours. De Rose et al. (2022) found a 12% reduction in the number of births in Genoa, Italy, from November 2020–January 2021 when compared to November 2019–January 2020. In Mexico, Silverio‐Murillo et al. (2021) found that the fertility rate declined in the country by about 10% during December 2020–February 2021. After this period, the authors found that the fertility rate gradually recovered and by May 2021 the rate was back to its pre‐pandemic levels.
In our study, April, May, and June 2021 were the months with the most pronounced declines in the number of births during the whole period under study. This result suggests a reduction in the number of conceptions occurring during July–September 2020, the period with the highest number of new cases of COVID‐19 in Yucatan during the first wave of the pandemic. Our results also show that from August 2021 to the end of this year the number of births seems to return to the trend observed during the pre‐pandemic period, which is consistent with the findings of Silverio‐Murillo et al. (2021) for all of Mexico.
Our research does not allow us to identify which factors related to the COVID‐19 pandemic led to a reduction in the number of births in Yucatan. In general, these factors may be population‐specific and depend mostly on the prevailing economic circumstances in particular societies and the stage of demographic transition at which they are found (Aassve et al., 2020). We believe that birth decline in Yucatan during the end 2020 and the first half 2021 was mainly guided by the economic impact of the pandemic. According to the state government, the Gross Domestic Product in Yucatan decreased during 2020 by about 8% compared to 2019, due to a reduction in economic activity (INEGI, 2021). The rates of unemployment in Merida, the capital city of Yucatan, increased by 90% during July–September 2020 in comparison to January–March of the same year, which represents a loss of more than 20 000 jobs in activities such as tourism, manufacturing, trade, and construction (INEGI, 2022a, 2022b). This situation necessarily impacted the income of an important proportion of individuals and families, increasing economic uncertainty. Previous studies on the effects of economic recessions and crises on fertility have shown that unemployment is the main driver of birth decline, particularly among young childless adults, which may be explained by postponement and revision of plans for starting a family (e.g., Goldstein et al., 2013; Sobotka et al., 2011). In this regard, conducting a survey before and after the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic in 2020 in Moldova, a middle‐income country, Emery and Koops (2022) found that participants interviewed during the pandemic (July–November 2020) were 34.5% less likely to be trying to conceive. Interestingly, the frequency of sexual activity among respondents was greater during lockdown than before the pandemic breakout and the use of contraceptives was similar in both periods.
In agreement with previous studies, our results seem to show that the decline in birth rate we found in Yucatan in 2021 was slightly more pronounced among young adult women (20–29 years of age) and among those without previous offspring. Our results suggest that the COVID‐19 pandemic accentuated trends in reproduction that had already existed in previous years. Young couples without children may be more vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic as they commonly have lower incomes, less stable jobs and less access to social security, all of which impacts on the direct cost of having children (Berrington et al., 2022). A very limited number of studies have analyzed the impact of the pandemic according to the socioeconomic characteristics of individuals. In their study undertaken in New York, Silverman et al. (2022) found that the decline in births observed during January–March 2021 was explained by a significantly lower number of births among women using commercial payors or self‐paying compared to those with Medicaid payors. The authors interpreted this as a more pronounced decline among individuals living in higher socioeconomic conditions. In Mexico, Silverio‐Murillo et al. (2021) found differences in the evolution of birth rates depending on the type of medical service. Specifically, they found that the decline in the number of births in private hospitals lasted until June 2021, whereas in public hospitals the reduction in the number of births was observed during January–February 2021, followed by a gradual recovery beginning in March.
Some other factors in addition to economic uncertainties may have contributed to decisions on postponing having a baby during the pandemic, including concerns about potential negative effects of COVID‐19 on the health of both mothers and offspring during pregnancy, the lack of social (familial and institutional) support for childcare after birth and the postponement of marriages. Although COVID‐19 was the main cause of maternal death during the last weeks of 2020 and all of 2021 (Mendez‐Dominguez et al., 2021), we think that the small number of these unfortunate events in Yucatan does not explain the reduction in the number of births in Yucatan during the period studied.
From 1982 to 1994 Mexico experienced macro‐economic processes that, among other consequences, resulted in a fall in oil prices, an increase in the foreign debt and the devaluation of the national currency. In that period, the Mexican population experienced a gradual and continued economic crises, affecting the economy of families through the price increase of basic products and food. However, these national crises did not affect fertility rates in the Yucatecan population. The economic impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic was largely driven by the abrupt loss of employment and the close of business and commercial services, which affected the economy of families severely and unexpectedly.
Our results show a slight decrease in the number of births occurring during 2019 and the months prior to the COVID‐19 breakout in 2020. We do not know the causes of this phenomenon; however, it may be related to the national decline in fertility, the postponement of reproductive events in young adult women and the reduction in adolescent pregnancies. Nonetheless, our results do highlight the importance of considering previous trends in birth rates when studying the impact of such events as disasters, economic crises, and pandemics on the numbers of births, particularly in those populations that experience significant sociodemographic changes. Our results also contribute to knowledge regarding biological responses in human reproductive ecology during disruptions in populations with marked socioeconomic disparities, which additionally experience demographic transitions.
5. CONCLUSION
The observed number of births in Yucatan was significantly lower than the expected figure from December 2020 (9 months after the COVID‐19 breakout) to July 2021. The months of April, May and June showed the largest differences between expected and observed values, which suggests a lesser number of conceptions during July–September 2020, the period with the highest number of new cases of COVID‐19 during the first wave of the pandemic. From August to December 2021, the observed number of births fell within the range of expected values. In 2021, the birth decline was slightly more pronounced in mothers between 20 and 29 years of age and in those without previous offspring. The birth decline in Yucatan during the pandemic seems to be driven by the postponement of plans to conceive due to the economic impact of the pandemic. We provide evidence of the birth decline in Yucatan, and even though birth rate reduction is a consistent global trend, during the pandemic years the birth rate reduction in Yucatan was double the world tendency.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Hugo Azcorra first proposed carrying out this study and wrote the first draft of the manuscript; Juan Carlos Salazar‐Rendón developed a quality check of datasets and contributed to literature review; Luis Rodríguez performed the main statistical analyses; Adriana Vázquez‐Vázquez contributed to the initial idea of the research; Nina Mendez‐Dominguez contribute to the interpretations of results. All co‐authors contributed to the first and subsequent drafts and provided input on all sections of the paper.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors wish to thank the Subsystem of Births Information (SINAC) and the Ministry of Health of the State of Yucatan for providing us with access to the dataset.
Azcorra, H. , Salazar‐Rendón, J. C. , Rodríguez, L. , Vázquez‐Vázquez, A. , & Mendez‐Dominguez, N. (2022). The impact of COVID‐19 on the number of births in Yucatan, Mexico. American Journal of Human Biology, e23849. 10.1002/ajhb.23849
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The data used in this study are publicly available on the Mexican Health Secretary (Secretaria de Salud) website Datos abierto: Nacimientos (salud.gob.mx).
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Associated Data
This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.
Data Availability Statement
The data used in this study are publicly available on the Mexican Health Secretary (Secretaria de Salud) website Datos abierto: Nacimientos (salud.gob.mx).