In a 2016 article, “A systematic review of physician retirement planning” by Silver et al, both expected and actual retirement ages appear to have occurred between 50-59 years of age (see table 1). A smaller number of physicians across studies predicted a later retirement age between 60-69 years of age.1
Table 1. Expected and Actual Physician Retirement Age1.
| 50-59 Years | 60-69 Years | >70 Years | “Never” | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected Retirement Age | Burke [76] Eagles [30] Luce [7] Fletcher [38] Mears [41] Goldberg [57] Sansom [28] French [36] French [23] Gee [82] Pit [45] Rayburn [31] Shanafelt [[53] Smith [91] Wakeford [18] |
Anderson [37] Dietch [48] Dodds [46] Farley [39] Florence [81] Grondin [61] Mears [41] |
Batchelor [22] | Draper [40] |
| Actual retirement age | Baker [52] Eagles [30] Sansom [28] Farley [39] Fletcher [38] French [36] Jonasson [84] Meghea [54] Luce [7] Orkin [34] Rayburn [31] Rowe [90] Van Greuningen [17] Wakeford [18] |
Anderson [37] Austrom [58] Batchelor [22] |
Joyce [42] Rayburn [31] |
– |
In a study by the American Dental Association’s Health Policy Institute, 49.8% of dentists aged 65-74 were projected to retire. That number increases to a projected 79.2% for those aged 75-84.2
Delaware data show on the facing page shows a steady increase in the number of physicians (both M.D., and D.O.) retiring starting at age 57 (individuals born in 1965). It appears that dentists follow a similar trend starting five years later (individuals born in 1960).
In figure 1, the blue dashed line between 1954 and 1955 roughly illustrates retirement age for those born in that range who can retire with full social security benefit when they turn 67 sometime in 2022. The red gradient box illustrates the increasing likelihood of end of career. The data does indicate that there are both physicians and dentists who maintain a license and practice significantly longer that their peers.
Figure 1.
Delaware Active License Physician and Dentist Age Demographics
Future data will aid in development of a projection model for retirement of physicians and dentists as well as other types of healthcare providers.
References
- 1.Silver, M. P., Hamilton, A. D., Biswas, A., & Warrick, N. I. (2016, November 15). A systematic review of physician retirement planning. Human Resources for Health, 14(1), 67. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5109800/ 10.1186/s12960-016-0166-z [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 2.Munson, B., & Vuujicic, M. (2021, May). Projected supply of dentists in the United States, 2020-2040. Health Policy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.ada.org/-/media/project/ada-organization/ada/ada-org/files/resources/research/hpi/hpibrief_0521_1.pdf