The impact of COVID-19 on the small and medium dairy farms and comparative analysis of customers’ behavior in Armenia

Abstract

The restrictions caused by the pandemic of COVID-19 have affected almost all economic sectors of different countries, including agriculture. At the global level of quarantine and lockdowns, the whole humanity has been faced with various problems, food insecurity being one of them. The current research aims to study the effect of the restraints imposed in Armenia upon COVID-19, in 2020 on the activities of small and medium dairy farms and to compare the retrieved data with those of pre-pandemic period. The study period covered March–August, 2020, when the most severe restrictions were working in Armenia, while the indicators were compared with the data of 2019 for the same period. Meanwhile, the changes of the customer behavior from the prospect of milk and dairy product purchase throughout the restriction period have been disclosed and their incentives have been enhanced. The investigations testify that in Armenia the milk production and sale prices haven't undergone any significant changes within the restriction period, which is mainly accounted for internal market sale and short run of severe restrictions. Considerable change has been recorded in the customer behavior, particularly in the first month after declaring state of emergency. An increase in the purchase rate of milk and dairy product per one-time buy, as well as a decrease in the visit frequency to the shops and supermarkets have been recorded.

1. Introduction

Armenia is an agricultural country, where for recent years an attempt is being made to develop the mentioned sector considering the practice of the developed countries via design and introduction of modern technologies and innovative approaches.

Agriculture is the main income source for the majority of the Armenian population. For instance, according to Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, (2019) in 2019 the number of people engaged in agriculture, forest enterprises and fish farming made 235.9 thousand, which made 21.9% of those employed in labor market. Besides, the overwhelming part made those employed by nongovernmental organizations (98.6%).

Animal husbandry has a key role in the agriculture of Armenia, the share of which in the gross agricultural product has considerably increased throughout the recent 5 years. So, if in 2015 the share of animal husbandry made 41.8 % in the gross agricultural product, then in 2019 it already amounted to 51.84 % (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ARMSTAT), 2020b). This comes to demonstrate that in Armenia there is an increasing tendency for the animal-based food production and animal husbandry on the whole.

Milk and dairy products manufacture and sale is one of the primary branches of livestock and food industry. In 2017, 2018 and 2019 the milk production made 758.2; 697.7 and 667.9 thousand tons respectively (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ARMSTAT), 2020b). Besides, the share of milk produced by the household plots (individual, rural households) made the overwhelming part (about 99%) of the total milk produced. Therefore, our studies have been conducted within the scope of individual households.

Dairy products are rather common food items and make the intrinsic part of the food diet among Armenian population. In 2015–2018 the average annual per capita milk and matsun (fermented milk product) consumption fluctuated within 19.0–21.6 l, while per capita cheese consumption – within 9.7–10.2 kg. It should be added that the total milk supply, as of 2019, made 867–4 thousand tons (667.9 thousand tons of which are of local production), while the self-sufficiency ratio was 84–3%. Besides, in the first three quarters of 2019, 574.9 thousand tons of milk was produced in Armenia, while for the same period of 2020, which coincided with the maximum prevalence of COVID-19 and with severe constraints in Armenia, 534.0 thousand tons of milk was manufactured (Statasitical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ARMSTAT), 2020; Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ARMSTAT), 2020a).

In 2020, the disease of COVID-19 broken out throughout the whole world, caused a number of challenges for almost all countries, including Armenia. Along with human health risk exposure, it also affected the food supply and provision system. Due to the aforementioned disease, different agricultural branches appeared in a quite new situation, where the timely implementation of the planned agricultural activities hardly became possible because of the imposed constraints, while the restrictions of transport communication entailed to the disruption of the agricultural food supply (Adhikari et al., 2021). On the other hand, in view of transport links restriction, the opposite picture was depicted, when the transportation of agricultural food products by sea, rail and car was partially facilitated due to the reduced demand for vehicles by other sectors of the economy (Gray, 2020).

The available data evidence that in 2020 the world prices for meat fell down by 7-18% and those for dairy products- by 4-7%, which is mainly due to the downswing in the economic growth (Elleby et al., 2020). The decline in economic growth affects such high value-added food products, as milk, dairy and meat products.

The lockdown caused by the pandemic of 2020 has also exerted its adverse effect on one of the most important branches of agriculture - milk and dairy products manufacturing branch. Moreover, here the changes were again observed in all stages of the value chain. During the pandemic, there was some feed supply decrease and delays related to the pandemic-driven restrictions. In some cases it resulted in the reduction of the cow weight, and, thereby in the decrease of milk amount (Bhandari and Ravishankara, n.d.; Hussain et al., 2020).

The activities of milk producing farms have been also retarded due to the breakdown of milk processing factories imposed by the pandemic-driven restrictions (Lammifyad, 2020). So, the studies conducted by Hussain et al., (2020) in Pakistan evidence that in certain cases (43%) the profit of dairy farms has been reduced just because of work cut-off in milk processing factories. The data on abrupt decline in the amount of agricultural food product and milk product, in particular, mostly in the first month of lockdown (March, 2020) are underpinned by the studies carried out in India. Here, 25–30% decline in milk demand and up to 50% decrease in milk sale price was registered, which, however, didn't ease the farmers’ labor intensity, particularly in those provinces where milk processing factories and cooperatives were missing (Bajwa, 2020; Biswal et al., 2020; Shashidhar, 2020). Meanwhile, supply delays and decrease in its sizes have been recorded in the milk and dairy supply chain (Bahadur Poudel et al., 2020; Khan et al., 2020).

The surveys conducted among the stakeholders of milk value chain in the USA testify on the sharp decrease in the milk prices, first of all, due to the breakup of schools and catering trade. The opposite picture is depicted for those farmers, who had the opportunities for primary milk processing, the latter being produced in their own farms. In this case some increase in milk sale price was observed unlike the cases when the farmers were only milk producers (Mulvey et al., 2020).

Due to the increase in milk supply and decrease in its demand, for the most cases untargeted milk consumption (misapplication) is recorded. In Canada, in some European countries and USA states, the dairy farmers had to dump their milk or to find alternative consumption ways. Some of these alternatives served for supplementary feeding of calves with milk, irrigating the lands with milk (as a fertilizer) and even for including milk in the diet of lactating cows (Liz Eckelkamp, 2020).

Considerable changes have been also observed in the milk processing phase. In the USA the processing enterprises engaged in retail trade have suffered least of all, while the organizations engaged in dairy retail and wholesale activities, had to reduce the total milk processing rates irrespective of the increased quantity of retail products (Mulvey et al., 2020). The comparative analyses conducted in the USA and China also provide evidence on the huge changes in the milk and dairy market during the pandemic, which again proves that the interruption of catering and hotel business, as well as activities of educational institutions has much affected both the price formation and the total sales volume (Qingbin et al., 2020).

Considerable changes have been observed in the consumer behavior as well, particularly those related to the buying procedure (customers). Everyone witnessed the fear among the consumers especially for the food deficit at the start of pandemic, as a result of which the most part started to buy and store a huge amount of food. Such phenomenon has been also recorded in the dairy market.

The pandemic has also affected the food ration of some people. On the one hand, people started to keep to the healthier diet, thereby regulating their weight, on the other hand the opposite situation has come forth, when people, being in self-isolation, started to use unlimited food variety and gained excess weight (Dawson and Golijani-Moghaddam, 2020; Snuggs and McGregor, 2021).

Creating a number of new opportunities in the field of milk export and consumption, COVID-19 enabled to realize milk sale, for instance, in India with alternative options. Numerous companies engaged in milk production embarked on the creation of new milk delivery services to apartments. Due to these opportunities not only was the milk sale sector regulated and balanced, but also new opportunities appeared, especially from the prospect of online sale of milk and dairy products (Gupta and Thakur, 2020).

Food safety and security issues in the situation created by COVID-19 have been also addressed by FAO. In the latter's report it has been mentioned that the population of less developed or developing countries have become the most vulnerable during the pandemic. At the same time it has been stated that the disruptions appeared in food chain are also the consequences of logistic restrictions and lack of labor force (FAO, 2020c). There are also other data testifying that vulnerable social groups have been highly susceptible to the hardships caused by COVID-19 (Devereux et al., 2020; Hooper et al., 2020; Nagata et al., 2020).

Despite the various changes found out in the agricultural and particularly in the food industry sector of different countries, it was foreseen that the demand and supply of the agricultural products could fall down related to the decline of overall economic activity, to the decrease of the population's profit and the increase of unemployment rate (FAO, 2020a). Meanwhile the observance of personal hygiene, sanitary norms set in food industry, as well as additional security and sanitary norms during the pandemic is considered to be of prior importance (FAO, 2020d).

Still other investigations related to pandemic-driven circumstances come to prove once again that the observance of hygiene and sanitary norms presented to the working staff and the products should be viewed as vital priority. If in ordinary conditions the observance of sanitary and hygiene norms is important from the prospect of preventing spread of foodborne diseases and consumers᾿ health risks, then in case of pandemic, the observance of personal hygiene is of particular significance for the prevention of the very pandemic disease.

2. Materials and methods

The main hypothesis of the study was that COVID-19 restrictions could have an impact on the milk and dairy market in Armenia. However, the scope of this effect and the changes that could occur in the initial stage of milk production were unknown. At the same time, it was obvious that there was a change in the behavior of the customers, but there was no clearly studied data on them.

2.1. The format of questionnaire on the dairy manufacture and sale, survey methodology

The needed data collection were conducted through the preliminarily developed and validated questionnaires. The questionnaire was tested on four farmers who were chosen at random. They were given a questionnaire, and we used it to determine how obvious the questions were for the farmers, as well as which ones were impossible for them to answer. After that, various revisions to the preliminary questionnaire were done before the final version was created. The questions addressed to the farmers of small and medium dairy farms were classified into 5 main groups. The data were collected from March, 2020 up to the August of the same year, when the disease of COVID-19 was widely spread in Armenia and the maximum restrictions were set up, thereafter they were compared with the data received for the same period in 2019.

The first group included questions requesting general information on the farms and farmers participating in the survey (farm location, its name /if available/, owner). The questions of the second group were related to the general quantitative changes in milk production for 2019 (before pandemic) and 2020 and to the disclosure of their reasons (if available). Upon the questions of the third group the total quantity of the sold milk, as well as the reasons affecting the sales volume in 2019 and 2020 has been identified. By means of the questions formed for the fourth group the data on the average price per liter of sold milk and its variations per months throughout 2019 and 2020 have been collected to estimate the economic efficiency. Through the questions summed up in the fifth group it has been found out whether the milk producing farmers benefited from any state support programs, which had been approved by the government of Armenia.

Thirty individual farmers participated in the survey. The farms have been chosen randomly taking into account the stock number of dairy cows and the farms location. Farms, where minimum cow number was 5 and the production served for sale, have been included in survey. The surveyed farms were located in 5 regions of Armenia.

2.2. The format of questionnaire on the change of customer behavior and survey methodology

There are data testifying that the quarantine and lockdown imposed by COVID-19 have also affected the customers᾿ food purchase behavior and psychology. Upon our research, we have tried to find out how the aforementioned conditions have affected milk and dairy purchase process and the customer behavior in Armenia.

For that reason, questionnaire was formed the questions of which enabled to study the dynamics in the quantity of one-time purchase of milk and dairy products and in their buying frequency for the period of March–April–May, 2020 during the severe restrictions set up in Armenia. We also tried to disclose the factors (anxiety about the price increase for milk and dairy products, about their insufficient quantity, restrictions on free movement, etc.) which influenced the customer behavior. Besides, to make the data more demonstrative, the dynamics of milk and dairy product purchase were fixed for every 10 days per March, April and May.

We also revealed which dairy product was of higher privilege among the customers in that period and what was the reason for it. At the same time, it has been found out whether the shelf life of the milk and dairy product influenced their purchase rate and what is the shelf life of the products which have been bought by the customers most of all.

Seventy-seven customers were randomly selected for the survey, who made purchases throughout the restriction period, and dairy products were permanently included in their purchase items. Residents from different districts of Yerevan city have participated in the survey; they were all adults (45 men and 32 women), from age 20 to 59. The food markets and supermarkets, where the research was carried out, were served about 7500 customers per day. The surveys have been carried out virtually (via phone calls) and face-to-face.

2.3. Data analysis

All survey data have been summed up in the common database. The retrieved data were subjected to statistical processing, their arithmetic mean and standard deviation was determined. Since the quantity of the produced milk is not viewed generally, at national level, but it was done per individual farms and animals, the amount of milk produced by the same farmer in 2020 was compared with the same index recorded in the previous year. As to the data on the dynamics of the customers᾿ behavior, they are presented in percentages.

Independent t-test was used to identify statistically significant differences between the milk production data. The level of significance was determined at p<0.05 to see whether there are statistical differences between the mean values.

3. Results and discussions

3.1. Research results on dairy production and sale

Upon the current work, for the first time, the impact of restrictions set up throughout the pandemic of COVID-19 on the agricultural field of the Republic of Armenia, particularly on the activities of small and medium dairy farms and on the farmers’ profits has been examined, as well as the sectors suffering considerable changes have been enhanced.

According to the data provided by the farmers the milk quantity produced in their farms throughout March-August, 2020, didn't undergo considerable changes, as compared to the data fixed for the same period in 2019 (P>0.05). This is due to the circumstance that the farmers were mostly provided with the needed feed during the pandemic and no marked deficit or shortage for their required amount was ever recorded, which could affect animal feeding and, hence, the milk manufacturing process. Changes in the milk production have been registered in individual farms, anyhow, it was related to the changes in the animal stock number and if under such conditions the total milk amount is estimated per an animal, it turns out that there are no remarkable changes in the milk quantity for the years of 2019 and 2020.

In 2019 and 2020 the sales price of the milk produced by the farmers fluctuated within 120–150 AMD (approximately 0.20–0.24 EUR). During the pandemic-driven restrictions the milk sale and its sale-based pricing didn't change (P>0.05). There are different factors which can neutralize these changes. One of them is the self-sufficiency level (84% and more) of the milk market in Armenia, that is why the border closure and the reduction of milk and dairy export haven't considerably affected the milk market. On the other hand, it should be noted, that though the schools, nursery schools and higher education institutions were closed down from the mid of March, up to August, 2020, the public catering facilities (restaurants, eating places and food production units, food courts) remained closed for a relatively short time and started to work again from the 10^th day of May with some restrictions. This was also an obstacle for the decrease of dairy product sales rate and its price.

Nevertheless, not in all countries did the milk sales and sell prices stay unchanged during the pandemic. In the dailies of Madagascar an article was published on March 31,2020, which considered the fact that the daily milk amount demanded from the farmers came down from 1000 l to 600 l and, as a result, the primary sales price declined by about 40%. Restrictions are considered to be as the main reasons for deflation. Besides, the main reason for milk amount decrease is mainly connected with the termination of the activities in the cheese factories, which used to consume about 70% of the produced milk (Vall et al., 2021). This fact, once again, serves as an evidence, that the consumption changes of the primary milk product were greatly related to different factors, particularly to the activities of the milk processing factories.

Lack of decline in the quantity of milk and dairy product manufacture and in its price can be also accounted for a very remarkable phenomenon, which is one of the characteristic traits of Armenia; there are many people in Armenia who go abroad for work. According to the official data, in 2018 and 2019, the number of short-term labor emigrants in Armenia made 60.6 and 68.4 thousand people respectively (though according to the unofficial data their number is much higher) (Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ARMSTAT), 2019). Establishment of quarantine and the border closure by many countries have created a situation where the major part of labor emigrants was unable to go abroad and stayed in Armenia. Naturally, under such circumstances the foodstuff consumption rate, including milk and dairy product, becomes higher in the domestic market.

The governments and many other responsible bodies of different countries developed and introduced various support programs and approaches, starting from the financial support ending with tax concessions, in order to sustain different manufacturers, including farmers and those engaged in milk production and processing works in the new situation occurred by COVID-19. The agricultural field was also involved in these support programs. In 2020, the Armenian government also approved 22 packages of state support measures to eliminate the economic and social consequences caused by coronavirus. We have found out that none of the farmers participated in the survey has ever been the stakeholder of the abovementioned support programs. The main reasons are that some of them didn't meet the standards set up in these measures, while some others stated that they were not interested in applying for these programs and didn't find out whether they meet the demands of target groups and could receive any support.

Different state support programs were adopted by the governments of different countries (Khan et al., 2020). For example, in March, 2020, the Indian government approved a package for providing support, particularly to vulnerable groups, and the investigations testify that the support packages, for the most part, did find the addressees, and about 89-94% of household plots benefited from the direct money transfers intended for the support (Varshney et al., 2021). There are reports that the situation caused by COVID-19 in Kenya didn't affect the milk production sector. In support to the farmers engaged in milk production, the government of Kenya established a structure, which used to purchase milk from the farmers, as a result of which no decrease in milk prices was recorded (Vall et al., 2021). Whereas, among the farmers of Bangladesh an urgent need for state support appeared. This was due to the obstacles related to the sale of the produced milk. According to daily estimates,12–15 million liters of milk was left unsold, resulting in the daily loss with the amount of 570 million BDT among the marginal dairy farmers (Begum et al., 2020).

There are proceedings touching upon the changes recorded in the agricultural sector of different countries. For example, the Canadian food industry has been basically able to handle the challenges posed by COVID-19 getting adapted to the current situation and keeping on the food supply to the domestic and foreign markets (Holland, 2020). The farmers have been the main responsible entities for this. Anyhow, the role of the state support is of no less significance, since in such situations the government can promote the process of primary food production and food provision upon the policy change and/or its mere assistance. Many research works evidence that pandemic-driven restrictions have made the very prior phase of agri-food production vulnerable, interfering with timely supply of diesel oil, seeds required for seeding and raw material. Investigations carried out in member countries of Asian Productivity Organization indicate that irrespective of some differences, in all those countries there was a need for fertilizers and safe seeds, and only in case of their sufficient amounts it would be possible to properly manage the agricultural activities (Bahadur Poudel et al., 2020; Hossain, 2020).

All units involved in different agricultural branches and engaged in specific activities, starting from the primary producers (farmers) up to the policymakers in the agri-food safety system of the given country (government and respective bodies) should draw relevant conclusions based on the pandemic-driven situation, comprehensively analyze the gaps disclosed in all phases of foodstuff industry and failures resulted during the pandemic, then, on the background of the results of these analyses they should develop and, if necessary, implement new approaches and policy which could later mitigate the adverse effects on the foodstuff industry in such extreme situations and ensure food safety and security.

In post-pandemic conditions not only relevant events aimed at the restoration of affected agricultural sectors should be implemented, but also a policy should be developed by the policymakers, so as not to put the main burden only on the farmers in such situations and to enable all agricultural stakeholders to rapidly get adapted to this new environment. All this requires new managerial approaches in food sector and consciousness by all stakeholders of their new roles, as well as introduction of new approaches for agriculture management, availability of the plan to give adequate response in emergency situations and, as it comes to prove once more, the application of good hygiene and manufacturing practices in the food, and particularly in the dairy industry (Djekic et al., 2021; FAO, 2020b; Hellin et al., 2020; Poppe, 2020; Savary et al., 2020; Song et al., 2020; Vesković-Moračanin et al., 2020).

It can be stated that the circumstances resulted from the pandemic have greatly influenced the entire process of milk and dairy production and sales. Besides, the restrictions had different effects on individual farmers of different countries. The determinant factors were austerity and duration of the restrictions, availability of the own milk processing production plant, as well as the markets (domestic or foreign/export) where the products were mainly realized.

During the restrictions imposed by COVID-19 some interrelated but sometimes mutually exclusive, noteworthy changes were observed in the milk and dairy value chain. So, in the result of interruption of work activities or productivity decline in the milk processing enterprises, excessive milk amount could be accumulated in the dairy farms entailing to the decrease in milk prices. On the other hand, this could be interfered with the reduction of milk production sizes caused by the feed supply decrease. Constraints imposed on public places like catering business, educational institutions and other food consumption places have significantly reduced the sales level of milk and dairy products, which could lead to the decrease in the prices of the mentioned products. Anyhow, on the other hand this was counterbalanced by the bulk purchase of various food products, including milk and dairy products, by the customers in supermarkets, which was particularly obvious at the start of restrictions, which in its turn was evidently related to the population's fear for food deficit. Thus, different interactive factors have designated various changes taking place in the milk and dairy value chain. Moreover, the vector (decrease-increase) of these changes and its size varied in different countries depending on the sum of the aforementioned factors.

3.2. The research results on customers behavior

Apart from the study of pre-pandemic and pandemic changes of milk production rate, the behavioral changes of the dairy customers from the prospect of purchase of the mentioned product and the change-related factors have been also investigated.

In March–May, 2020, an emergency situation and quarantine were established in Armenia. Severe restrictions on the people's free movement and on the activities of various food service centers were set up or they were closed at all.

Table 1 presents the data of our studies on the changes in the purchase of milk and dairy product and its frequency, their reasons, as well as the changing dynamics of the mentioned products purchase per months. The results show that rapid changes in the customer behavior were observed particularly in the first month of quarantine and emergency situation. So, throughout one-time purchase 64.94% of the buyers purchased more dairy products than usual, whereas, the purchase quantity of those products remained unchanged only in case of 28.57% buyers. The reasons for higher amount of one-time purchases were different. The majority of people (84%) had a fear that a price boost can occur related to the pandemic, thus, they mainly preferred to buy and store a considerable amount of food.

Table 1.

The data on milk and dairy product purchase by the customer.

1– Purchase amount of milk and dairy product
	Increased				Decreased					Unchanged
Customers (%)	64.94				6.49					28.57
2– Purchase rate (frequency) of milk and dairy product
	Increased				Decreased					Unchanged
Customers (%)	6–49				72.73					20.78
3– Increase in milk and dairy product purchase per months
Months	March					April					May
Per 10 Days (decade)	I	II	III			I	II		III		I	II		III
Customers (%)	46.75	63.64	59.74			49.35	40.26		31.17		19.48	6.49		2.60
4. Reasons for the increase in the amount of milk and dairy product purchase
	Further increase in the food price			Further decrease in the food quantity				Restriction on the free movement					Others
Customers (%)	84.00			84.00				78.00					6.00

Similar changes have been reported by the other authors as well. For example, in Kenya during the pandemic a sharp increase in the purchase of milk and dairy products, particularly in those of having long shelf life was recorded. Abrupt demand growth was noticeable especially for value-added food products, such as yoghurt, fermented milk, which was due to the tendency to buy and store products with longer shelf life, so as to avoid frequent visits to the supermarkets (Vall et al., 2021).

The 84% of the survey respondents also backed up the increase of their one-time purchase amount with the anxiety that the established constraints during the quarantine could affect the activities of milk and dairy product households which would later entail to the deficit or shortage of the mentioned products. And the 78% of the survey respondents justified their large one-time purchases with restrictions on free movement. Almost all respondents emphasized that another reason of their one-time bulk purchase was the avoidance of unnecessary visits to the shops and supermarkets, which could pave ways for getting infected with COVID-19.

On the first days of the lockdown a consumption boom for the consumer goods, particularly for milk and dairy products was recorded in India as well, which was related to the concerns about the envisioned decline in the food quantity among the consumers. Anyhow, later on the demand for the dairy products fell down, which was related not only to the disappearance of the consumers’ concerns, but also to the interruption of the activities in the public catering facilities and networks. The high demand for the food items on the first days of quarantine along with the envisioned quantity decrease was also related to the people's movements restrictions, which made people conduct one-time purchases for 5-6 days and store the bought items (Biswal et al., 2020; Shashidhar, 2020).

A demand growth for the dairy products has been also observed in Brazil, which was associated by the increase in milk price, i.e. in the second half of March it grew up by 22.7% and at the end of March- by 24.8%. These changes have also affected the cheese market; particularly the price of mozzarella in March fell down by 0.97%. Nevertheless, in the first half of April the prices of milk and mozzarella decreased by 4% and 4.2% respectively (Khan et al., 2020).

For 28.57% respondents the quantity of one-time dairy purchase remained the same, as compared to that of recorded in pre-pandemic period. They all confirmed their unwillingness to buy extra food amount, since they believed that the supply rate of milk and dairy products to the shops and supermarkets wouldn't change so much under the impact of quarantine and that they would be always available for sale. It is noteworthy, that there were also people in that group, who possessed small sales points (shops), where along with other food products, milk and dairy products were sold. It is evident that such people would view on the possible food deficit more sceptically and wouldn't buy and store extra amount of food.

The 6.49% of the respondents noticed a decrease in the amount of food purchased. About 15.58% of the respondents said that the number of purchases of milk and dairy products remained the same or decreased due to the lack of finances available during the one-time purchase.

The quantitative analyses conducted on the one-time purchase within March–May show that compare to 2019, during one-time purchase the customers bought more milk and dairy product in the second (63.64% of responders) and third (59.74% of responders) decade of March 2020. The purchase quantity was rather high in the first decade of April as well; during that period 49.35% of people also bought more food items than usual, before pandemic. It should be added that in Armenia the first case of COVID-19 was officially recorded on the first of March and already from the second half of March strict restrictions on the free movement were imposed, public eating places stopped their activities, educational institutions closed and passed to the remote learning mode.

In the second and especially third ten days (decades) of April the number of people buying extra amount of food relatively dropped; in the second ten days 40.26% of the customers purchased more milk and dairy products than usual, while in the third ten days – this was true only for 31.17% customers. As to May, in the first ten days, only 19.48% of the customers made extra purchases, while for the rest of the period the most part of customers bought no more than the needed food amount during one-time purchase without any intention to store it. As a matter of fact, the purchase amount was as much as it was in pre-pandemic period. Such an approach in May was reasonable, since from May, 4, the restrictions on the people's free movements were lifted in Armenia and despite the fact that quarantine was still working, there was no more concern about the food deficit and the sharp rise in prices. Thereupon, already from mid-April most customers were back to their habitual manners of making purchase with required amount.

Buying and storing huge amount of food products was motivated by the fear resulted from the restraints on the people's free movement and by the fact that people had to eat at home instead of public places. Besides, the sharp rise in the food purchase amount was clearly observed at the start of the pandemic; in some countries it was in February–March. Afterwards, the quantity of the food purchase relatively declined (Lusk and Anderson, 2020). This can be attributed both to complete or partial relief of constraints and to the decrease of stress and fear among the customers regarding the food shortage.

The frequency of the visit to the shops or other relevant places for food purchase has also significantly fluctuated. Thus, 72.73% of the respondents asserted that the frequency of store and supermarket visits throughout the quarantine remarkably fell down. Only in case of 20.78% customers, the frequency of sale point visits stayed the same, while 6.49% stated that the frequency of their shop visits and dairy food purchase increased.

Attempts have been also made to find out what is the shelf life of the most purchased food during the restrictions. There are evidences that in some cases not only did the customers buy more products than usual, but they also preferred to purchase food products with a longer shelf life (Mead et al., 2020; Mulvey et al., 2020).

97.40% of the surveyed customers preferred to buy cheese, 90.91% of them preferred matsun, 75.32% - cottage cheese and 71.43% preferred to buy sour cream. The data on the purchase of these and other dairy products are introduced in Table 2 . As it is known cheese and yoghurt have relatively long shelf life. While the high amount of matsun consumption is easy to explain: it is one of the most widespread and frequently consumed dairy products by the Armenians.

Table 2.

Purchase preference for meat and dairy products among the customers.

Food Product	Customers’ Preference (%)
Cheese	97.40
Matsun	90–91
Cottage Cheese	75–32
Sour Cream	71.43
Yoghurt	68–83
Condensed Milk	67–53
Butter	53–25
Sour Cream+Curd	46–75
Milk	22–08
Kefir	19–48

The prices of different food products in the foodstuff industry and their supply prices have also varied during the pandemic. This is partially due to the perishable and nonperishable food properties. The investigations conducted in Italy testify that the damage was mostly caused to the perishable food products, while the nonperishable foods (those having long shelf life) suffered minimum changes. As to the milk sale prices, in 2020, they were subjected to partial decline as compared to those recorded in 2019 (Coluccia et al., 2021; Cesaro et al., 2020).

All survey respondents stated that, when making purchases, they definitely paid attention to the expiry date of dairy products. This is natural, since people have recently started to put a specific stress on wholesome and high-quality food products. The 92.21% of customers preferred foods with long shelf life. The 89.61% of customers simultaneously preferred new (manufactured) products. This is sensible, since, as it has been already mentioned, throughout one-time buy most customers purchased much more food products than usual with the aim to store and use them for a long time. Hence, they preferred foods which could be kept at home for a long time. Only 6.49% of the survey respondents mentioned that they were merely interested in the availability of the expiry date without any special concerns whether the product can be kept for a long time without spoiling or whether it was a new product.

Hobbs and the co-authors (2020) have also documented consumers’ panic regarding the buying process, noting that it is necessary to make comprehensive analyses and to identify its reasons and mechanisms so that the industry and policy responses could later mitigate it in case of analogous situations.

Conclusion

The whole world has appeared in a new situation imposed by the pandemic of COVID-19, where in most cases free movement was paralyzed, the educational, cultural and economic activities including those of agriculture were restrained or interrupted at all.

Emergency situation and quarantine caused by the pandemic in Armenia haven't exerted any considerable impact on the course of milk production and on its prices, since its overwhelming part was consumed in the domestic market. Therefore, Armenia avoided encountering serious problems related to the exports of milk and dairy products, which was evidently recorded in a number of countries due to the borders closure. This is also due to the fact that Armenia is a relatively small country and the milk production and processing units are not so far from each other. Thus, no obstacles in the milk supply chain, and hence, no sales problems and barriers were observed in Armenia as it happened in many other countries.

In Armenia, like in the whole world, behavioral changes in the purchase of food products and particularly in those of milk and dairy products have been recorded. Throughout the first 2-3 weeks after setting up an emergency situation, restrictions on free movement and other types of constraints, the customers bought much more dairy products per one-time purchase than in pre-pandemic period. Most of them preferred relatively fresh food products with longer shelf life. There are mainly three reasons for this: a) fear for the pandemic-driven deficit of milk and dairy products, b) increase in the prices of milk and dairy products caused by the pandemic c) restrictions on people's free movement. Nevertheless, already in May, when many restrictions were abolished in Armenia, the customers’ behavior in dairy product purchase came to its initial, that is, to pre-pandemic mode.

The research findings testify that the most part of the farmers haven't benefited from the support programs approved by the Armenian government. It is recommended to make supplementary analyses and investigations to identify their relevance for the entities engaged in agricultural sector. Though, this time no fundamental changes in milk and dairy market have been recorded, yet, the state bodies should develop and possess such package of mechanisms and plans, which would enable to take urgent measures, support the farmers and ensure sufficient and high-quality food products during the quarantine, restrictions and emergency situations.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Declaration of Competing Interests

The Authors declares that there is no conflict of interest with other organizations and persons.

Ethical Statement – Studies in humans and animals

The research was done taking into account the ethical norms, which are connected to the implementation of surveys to customers. All farmers and customers were introduced to the main aim of the research, the expected outcomes and usage of the final results. They were aware, that the results will be published in one of the international journals and all results will be presented anonymously. Only farmers and customers participated in the survey, who agreed with the above-mentioned rules and were ready to share their personal experience and data.