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Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2023 Feb 15;169:113256. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113256

Stationary distribution and probability density for a stochastic SEIR-type model of coronavirus (COVID-19) with asymptomatic carriers

Qun Liu a,, Daqing Jiang b
PMCID: PMC9928772  PMID: 36820073

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a stochastic SEIR-type model with asymptomatic carriers to describe the propagation mechanism of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the population. Firstly, we show that there exists a unique global positive solution of the stochastic system with any positive initial value. Then we adopt a stochastic Lyapunov function method to establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of positive solutions to the stochastic model. Especially, under the same conditions as the existence of a stationary distribution, we obtain the specific form of the probability density around the quasi-endemic equilibrium of the stochastic system. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to validate the theoretical findings.

Keywords: SEIR epidemic model, Asymptomatic carriers, Stationary distribution, Ergodicity, Probability density

1. Introduction

In early December of 2019, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) disease was reported as a major health hazard by the World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. This coronavirus is a kind of single stranded, enveloped and positive sense virus belonging to the RNA coronaviridae family [2], [3]. At present, this disease has drawn much attention of researchers from all over the world and different areas. To defeat the epidemic, many researchers have made great attempts to develop various mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of this epidemic [1], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], these models include the SEIR-type model and SEIRS-type model. In these models, the authors assumed that after a latent period, exposed individuals can show symptoms that make them easy to identify and isolate, thus they are not able to transmit the disease. However, exposed individuals can also exhibit asymptomatic after incubation, and they can continue to infect others because asymptomatic and susceptible individuals have the same set of characteristics, there is no effective way to identify them. Therefore, the classical SEIR model or SEIRS model fails to explain the discrepancy by distinguishing between the symptomatic and asymptomatic. Taking this into account, in this paper, we first develop an SEIR-type model to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 which takes the following form:

S˙=ΛμSβS(ηIA+IS),E˙=βS(ηIA+IS)(μ+θ)E,I˙S=pθE(μ+αS+γS)IS,I˙A=(1p)θE(μ+αA+γA)IA,R˙=γSIS+γAIAμR. (1.1)

Here the infectious population I is split into two degenerate infectious groups IA and IS, IA(t) and IS(t) denote the undetected asymptomatic and symptomatic members of the infected population at time t, respectively. S(t) denotes the number of individuals who are susceptible to the disease, E(t) represents the number of exposed (in the latent period) individuals and R(t) represents the number of individuals who have been infected and then removed from the possibility of being infected again at time t, respectively. All parameters are strictly positive and their descriptions are given in Table 1.

Table 1.

Summary of model parameters.

Parameter Description
Λ Recruitment rate of the population
μ Natural death rate of the population
β Transmission or contact rate in response to public health interventions
η Asymptomatic infectiousness
p Fraction of infection cases that are symptomatic
1p Fraction of infection cases that are asymptomatic
θ Latency rate
αS Disease-related death rate of the symptomatic infectious group
αA Disease-related death rate of the asymptomatic infectious group
γS Symptomatic recovery rate
γA Asymptomatic recovery rate

Note that the variable R of system (1.1) does not appear explicitly in the first four equations, which implies that the individuals in the compartment R do not transmit infection. By ignoring the equation for R, model (1.1) reduces to the following system:

S˙=ΛμSβS(ηIA+IS),E˙=βS(ηIA+IS)(μ+θ)E,I˙S=pθE(μ+αS+γS)IS,I˙A=(1p)θE(μ+αA+γA)IA. (1.2)

According to the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R0 for system (1.2) is defined by

R0=pβΛθμ(μ+θ)(μ+αS+γS)+(1p)βηΛθμ(μ+θ)(μ+αA+γA),

which is used to determine whether the disease occurs or not.

In addition, the corresponding dynamic behavior of system (1.2) is as follows:

If R01, system (1.2) has a disease-free equilibrium P0(S0,0,0,0)=(Λ/μ,0,0,0) and it is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) in the positive invariant set Ω, where

Ω{(S,E,IS,IA)R+4:SΛμ,S+E+IS+IAΛμ}.

If R0>1, P0 is unstable and there is a unique GAS endemic equilibrium P+(S+,E+,IS+,IA+) in the interior of Ω, where

S+=Λ(1p)(μ+αS+γS)βIA+[η(1p)(μ+αS+γS)+p(μ+αA+γA)]+μ(1p)(μ+αS+γS),
E+=ΛβIA+[η(1p)(μ+αS+γS)+p(μ+αA+γA)][βIA+(η(1p)(μ+αS+γS)+p(μ+αA+γA))+μ(1p)(μ+αS+γS)](μ+θ),
IS+=pIA+(μ+αA+γA)(1p)(μ+αS+γS),

and IA+ is the unique positive root of the following equation

(1p)(μ+αS+γS)+p(μ+αA+γA)βIA+[η(1p)(μ+αS+γS)+p(μ+αA+γA)]+μ(1p)(μ+αS+γS)(μ+αA+γA)(μ+θ)(1p)Λβθ=0.

On the other hand, it is supposed in system (1.2) that the individuals live in a constant environment. However, some parameters involved in epidemic models are always affected by the environmental noise. There has been a growing interest in considering the environmental noise in epidemiology models since it has turned out that the stochastic model can describe biological phenomena and infectious diseases in a more exact way [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16]. So far, there are different ways to introduce stochastic perturbations in the model. One of the most important ways is to assume that environmental fluctuations are of white noise type which are proportional to each variable, respectively. Given the above, in the present study it is assumed that the environmental noise is separately proportional to the compartments S, E, IS and IA. Then corresponding to the deterministic model (1.2), the stochastic system takes the following form:

dS=[ΛμSβS(ηIA+IS)]dt+ρ1SdB1(t),dE=[βS(ηIA+IS)(μ+θ)E]dt+ρ2EdB2(t),dIS=[pθE(μ+αS+γS)IS]dt+ρ3ISdB3(t),dIA=[(1p)θE(μ+αA+γA)IA]dt+ρ4IAdB4(t), (1.3)

where B1(t), B2(t), B3(t) and B4(t) are mutually independent standard Brownian motions defined on a complete probability space (Ω,F,{Ft}t0,P) with a filtration {Ft}t0 satisfying the usual conditions [17], ρi2>0 represent the intensity of white noises B˙i(t) (i=1,2,3,4), respectively.

Throughout this paper, we introduce the following notations:

R+d={x=(x1,,xd)TRd:xi>0,1id},R¯+d={x=(x1,,xd)TRd:xi0,1id},
xy=max{x,y}for anyx,yR.

Denote by C2(Rd;R¯+) the family of all nonnegative functions V(x) defined on Rd such that they are continuously twice differentiable in x. If G is a vector or matrix, we use the notation G to represent its norm and its transpose is defined by GT. For any real numbers ai (i=1,,n), we use the notation diag(a1,,an) to denote a n-order diagonal matrix. If G is an invertible matrix, we use the notation G1 to denote its inverse matrix. If G is a square matrix, its determinant is denoted by |G|. Moreover, if H and J are two d-dimensional symmetric matrices, we define

HJ:HJis at least a semi-positive definite matrix. (1.4)

In view of (1.4), we can obtain that the matrix H is also positive definite if J is a positive definite matrix.

The organization of this paper is summarized as follows: In Section 2, we verify that there is a unique global positive solution to the stochastic system (1.3) with any positive initial value. In Section 3, we adopt a stochastic Lyapunov function method to establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of positive solutions to the stochastic model (1.3). In Section 4, under the same conditions as in Theorem 3.1, we obtain the accurate expression of probability density around the quasi-endemic equilibrium of the stochastic system (1.3), which reflects the strong persistence of the disease. In Section 5, numerical simulations are given to confirm our analytical findings obtained in Sections 3, 4. Finally, a brief conclusion is given to end this paper.

2. Existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution

Before studying the dynamic behavior of an epidemic model, we should ensure that the solution is global and positive. The following theorem guarantees the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of system (1.3) with any positive initial value.

Theorem 2.1

For any initial value (S(0),E(0),IS(0),IA(0))TR+4 , there exists a unique solution (S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t))T to system (1.3) on t0 and the solution will remain in R+4 with probability one, namely, (S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t))TR+4 for all t0 almost surely (a.s.).

Proof

Note that all the coefficients of system (1.3) are locally Lipschitz continuous, then for any initial value (S(0),E(0),IS(0),IA(0))TR+4 there is a unique local solution (S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t))T on the interval [0,τe), where τe is an explosion time [17]. Now we validate this solution is global, i.e., to validate τe= a.s. To this end, let n01 be sufficiently large such that S(0), E(0), IS(0) and IA(0) all lie within the interval [1/n0,n0]. For each integer nn0, we define a stopping time by [17]

τn=inf{t[0,τe):min{S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t)}1normax{S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t)}n},

where throughout this paper we set inf= (commonly, represents the empty set). Apparently, τn is increasing as n. Denote by τ=limnτn, whence ττe a.s. If τ= a.s. is true, then τe= a.s. and (S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t))TR+4 a.s. for all t0. Namely, to confirm the proof we need to validate τ= a.s. If this statement is false, then there exists a pair of constants T>0 and ϵ(0,1) such that

P{τT}>ϵ.

Accordingly, there exists an integer n1n0 such that

P{τnT}ϵ,nn1.

For any (S,E,IS,IA)R+4, a nonnegative C2-function V is defined by

V(S,E,IS,IA)=(SaalnSa)+(E1lnE)+(IS1lnIS)+(IA1lnIA),

where a is a positive constant to be chosen later. It is noticed that the nonnegativity of the above function is ensured due to u1lnu0 for any u>0. Applying Itô’s formula to differentiate V, which is shown inAppendix, we have

dV(S,E,IS,IA)=LV(S,E,IS,IA)dt+ρ1(Sa)dB1(t)+ρ2(E1)dB2(t)+ρ3(IS1)dB3(t)+ρ4(IA1)dB4(t),

where LV:R+4R is defined by

LV=ΛμSβS(ηIA+IS)aΛS+aβηIA+aβIS+a(μ+ρ122)+βS(ηIA+IS)(μ+θ)EβS(ηIA+IS)E+μ+θ+ρ222+pθE(μ+αS+γS)ISpθEIS+μ+αS+γS+ρ322+(1p)θE(μ+αA+γA)IA(1p)θEIA+μ+αA+γA+ρ422Λ+aμ+3μ+θ+αS+αA+γS+γA+aρ122+ρ222+ρ322+ρ422+[aβ(αS+γS)]IS+[aβη(αA+γA)]IA.

Choose a=min{(αS+γS)/β,(αA+γA)/βη} such that aβ(αS+γS)0 and aβη(αA+γA)0, then we have

LVΛ+aμ+3μ+θ+αS+αA+γS+γA+aρ122+ρ222+ρ322+ρ422K.

Here K is a positive constant which is independent of the variables S, E, IS and IA. The remainder of the proof is similar to Theorem 2.1 in the literature [18] and so we omit it here. This completes the proof.

3. Existence of ergodic stationary distribution

In this section, we aim to establish sufficient criteria for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of positive solutions to the stochastic system (1.3). We first present some theories about the stationary distribution (see Khasminskii [19]).

Let X(t) be a regular time-homogeneous Markov process in Rd described by the stochastic differential equation

dX(t)=f(X(t))dt+r=1kgr(X(t))dBr(t).

The diffusion matrix of the process X(t) is defined as follows

A(x)=(aij(x)),aij(x)=r=1kgri(x)grj(x).

Lemma 3.1 [19]

The Markov process X(t) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution π() if there exists a bounded open domain URd with regular boundary Γ , having the following properties:

(A1) In the domain U and some neighborhood thereof, the smallest eigenvalue of the diffusion matrix A(x) is bounded away from zero.

(A2) If xRdU , the mean time τ at which a path issuing from x reaches the set U is finite, and supxDExτ< for every compact subset DRd .

Remark 3.1

To validate A1, we only need to prove that the operator F is uniformly elliptical in U, where Fu=b(x)ux+(tr(A(x)uxx))/2, i.e., there exists a positive number M such that

i,j=1daij(x)ξiξjMξ2,xU,ξRd

(see Chapter 3, p. 103 of [20] and Rayleigh’s principle in [[21], Chapter 6, p. 349]). To prove A2, we need to show that there are some neighborhood U and a nonnegative C2-function such that LV is negative for any RdU (for details the readers can refer to [[22], p. 1163]).

Theorem 3.1

If

R0S=pβΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αS+γS+ρ322)+(1p)βηΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αA+γA+ρ422)>1,

then system (1.3) has a unique stationary distribution π() and the ergodicity holds.

Proof

The proof process is divided into two steps: the first step is to prove that the uniform elliptic condition is satisfied, and the second step is to construct a nonnegative Lyapunov function which satisfies the condition (A2) of Lemma 3.1.

Step 1. The diffusion matrix of system (1.3) is given by

A=ρ12S20000ρ22E20000ρ32IS20000ρ42IA2.

Choosing M=min(S,E,IS,IA)TU¯kR+4{ρ12S2,ρ22E2,ρ32IS2,ρ42IA2}, we have

i,j=14aij(S,E,IS,IA)ζiζj=ρ12S2ζ12+ρ22E2ζ22+ρ32IS2ζ32+ρ42IA2ζ42Mζ2,

for any (S,E,IS,IA)TU¯k and ζ=(ζ1,ζ2,ζ3,ζ4)TR4, where U¯k=[1/k,k]×[1/k,k]×[1/k,k]×[1/k,k]. Accordingly, the condition A1 in Lemma 3.1 holds.

Step 2. Let

S¯=Λμ+ρ122,E¯=1,I¯S=pθE¯μ+αS+γS+ρ322,I¯A=(1p)θE¯μ+αA+γA+ρ422,S~=SS¯,E~=EE¯,I~S=ISI¯S,I~A=IAI¯A.

In view of system (1.3), we have

L(lnS)=ΛS+βηIA+βIS+μ+ρ122=ΛS¯1S~+μ+ρ122+βηIA+βISΛS¯(ln1S~+1)+μ+ρ122+βηIA+βIS=ΛS¯lnS~+βηIA+βIS, (3.1)

where in the inequality we have used the inequality

lnxx1for anyx>0.

Similarly, we have

L(lnE)=βηSIAEβSISE+μ+θ+ρ222=βηS¯I¯AE¯S~I~AE~βS¯I¯SE¯S~I~SE~+μ+θ+ρ222βηS¯I¯AE¯(lnS~I~AE~+1)βS¯I¯SE¯(lnS~I~SE~+1)+μ+θ+ρ222=βηS¯I¯AβS¯I¯S+μ+θ+ρ222βS¯(ηI¯A+I¯S)lnS~+βS¯(ηI¯A+I¯S)lnE~βηS¯I¯AlnI~AβS¯I¯SlnI~S, (3.2)
L(lnIS)=pθEIS+μ+αS+γS+ρ322=pθE¯I¯SE~I~S+μ+αS+γS+ρ322pθE¯I¯S(lnE~I~S+1)+μ+αS+γS+ρ322=pθE¯I¯SlnE~+pθE¯I¯SlnI~S, (3.3)

and

L(lnIA)=(1p)θEIA+μ+αA+γA+ρ422=(1p)θE¯I¯AE~I~A+μ+αA+γA+ρ422(1p)θE¯I¯A(lnE~I~A+1)+μ+αA+γA+ρ422=(1p)θE¯I¯AlnE~+(1p)θE¯I¯AlnI~A. (3.4)

Define

V1(S,E,IS,IA)=lnEc1lnSc2lnISc3lnIA+c1βμ+αS+γSIS+c1βημ+αA+γAIA,

where ci (i=1,2,3) are positive constants which will be determined later. Then from (3.1), (3.2), (3.3), (3.4) it follows that

LV1βηS¯I¯AβS¯I¯S+μ+θ+ρ222βS¯(ηI¯A+I¯S)lnS~+βS¯(ηI¯A+I¯S)lnE~βηS¯I¯AlnI~AβS¯I¯SlnI~S+c1ΛS¯lnS~+c1βηIA+c1βISc2pθE¯I¯SlnE~+c2pθE¯I¯SlnI~Sc3(1p)θE¯I¯AlnE~+c3(1p)θE¯I¯AlnI~A+c1pβθμ+αS+γSEc1βIS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γAEc1βηIA=βηS¯I¯AβS¯I¯S+μ+θ+ρ222+(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)E+(c1ΛS¯βS¯(ηI¯A+I¯S))lnS~+(βS¯(ηI¯A+I¯S)c2pθE¯I¯Sc3(1p)θE¯I¯A)lnE~+(c2pθE¯I¯SβS¯I¯S)lnI~S+(c3(1p)θE¯I¯AβηS¯I¯A)lnI~A.

Let

c1ΛS¯βS¯(ηI¯A+I¯S)=0,c2pθE¯I¯SβS¯I¯S=0,c3(1p)θE¯I¯AβηS¯I¯A=0,

then we obtain

c1=βS¯2(ηI¯A+I¯S)Λ,c2=βS¯I¯S2pθ,c3=βηS¯I¯A2(1p)θ.

Therefore

LV1βηS¯I¯AβS¯I¯S+μ+θ+ρ222+(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)E=(μ+θ+ρ222)(R0S1)+(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)E, (3.5)

where

R0SβηS¯I¯A+βS¯I¯Sμ+θ+ρ222=pβΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αS+γS+ρ322)+(1p)βηΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αA+γA+ρ422).

Next, define

V2(S)=lnS,V3(IS)=lnIS,V4(IA)=lnIA,V5(S,E,IS,IA)=1ν+1(S+E+IS+IA)ν+1,

where ν(0,2μ/(ρ12ρ22ρ32ρ42)) is a sufficiently small constant. Applying Itô’s formula to V2, V3, V4 and V5, respectively, which is shown inAppendix, we have

LV2=ΛS+βηIA+βIS+μ+ρ122, (3.6)
LV3=pθEIS+μ+αS+γS+ρ322, (3.7)
LV4=(1p)θEIA+μ+αA+γA+ρ422, (3.8)

and

LV5=(S+E+IS+IA)ν[Λμ(S+E+IS+IA)(αS+γS)IS(αA+γA)IA]+ν2(S+E+IS+IA)ν1×(ρ12S2+ρ22E2+ρ32IS2+ρ42IA2)Λ(S+E+IS+IA)νμ(S+E+IS+IA)ν+1+ν2(ρ12ρ22ρ32ρ42)(S+E+IS+IA)ν+1J112(μν2(ρ12ρ22ρ32ρ42))(S+E+IS+IA)ν+1J112(μν2(ρ12ρ22ρ32ρ42))(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)=J1ϑ2(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1), (3.9)

where

J1sup(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4{Λ(S+E+IS+IA)νϑ2(S+E+IS+IA)ν+1}<,

and

ϑμν2(ρ12ρ22ρ32ρ42).

Define a C2-function V:R+4R in the following form

V(S,E,IS,IA)=MV1(S,E,IS,IA)+V2(S)+V3(IS)+V4(IA)+V5(S,E,IS,IA),

where M is a sufficiently large positive constant satisfying the following condition

M(μ+θ+ρ222)(R0S1)+J22, (3.10)

and

J2sup(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4{ϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422}<.

In addition, note that V(S,E,IS,IA) is not only continuous, but also tends to as (S,E,IS,IA)T approaches the boundary of R+4. Therefore, it must have a lower bound and achieve this lower bound at a point (S0,E0,IS0,IA0)T in the interior of R+4. Then we define a C2-function V¯:R+4R¯+ as follows

V¯(S,E,IS,IA)=V(S,E,IS,IA)V(S0,E0,IS0,IA0)=MV1(S,E,IS,IA)+V2(S)+V3(IS)+V4(IA)+V5(S,E,IS,IA)V(S0,E0,IS0,IA0).

According to (3.5), (3.6), (3.7), (3.8), (3.9), we have

LV¯M(μ+θ+ρ222)(R0S1)+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)EΛSpθEIS(1p)θEIAϑ2(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422. (3.11)

Now we are in the position to construct a bounded closed domain Uϵ as follows

Uϵ={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:ϵS1ϵ,ϵE1ϵ,ϵ2IS1ϵ2,ϵ2IA1ϵ2},

where 0<ϵ<1 is a sufficiently small constant. In the set R+4Uϵ, we can choose ϵ small enough such that the following conditions hold

Λϵ+J31, (3.12)
ϵ1M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA), (3.13)
pθϵ+J31, (3.14)
(1p)θϵ+J31, (3.15)
ϑ4ϵν+1+J31, (3.16)
ϑ4ϵ2(ν+1)+J31. (3.17)

Here J3 is a positive constant which is given explicitly in the expression (3.19). For convenience, we can divide R+4Uϵ into eight domains,

U1={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:S<ϵ},U2={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:E<ϵ},U3={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:IS<ϵ2,Eϵ},
U4={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:IA<ϵ2,Eϵ},U5={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:S>1ϵ},
U6={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:E>1ϵ},U7={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:IS>1ϵ2},U8={(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4:IA>1ϵ2}.

Apparently, R+4Uϵ=U1U8. Next, we will prove that LV¯1 for any (S,E,IS,IA)TUϵc, which is equivalent to proving it on the above eight domains, respectively.

Case 1. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU1, according to (3.11), we have

LV¯ΛS+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422ΛS+J3Λϵ+J31, (3.18)

which follows from (3.12) and

J3sup(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4{ϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)E+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422}<. (3.19)

Case 2. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU2, in view of (3.11), we obtain

LV¯M(μ+θ+ρ222)(R0S1)+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422M(μ+θ+ρ222)(R0S1)+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)E+J2M(μ+θ+ρ222)(R0S1)+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)ϵ+J21, (3.20)

which follows from (3.10), (3.13) and

J2sup(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4{ϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422}<.

Case 3. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU3, by (3.11), we get

LV¯pθEIS+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422pθEIS+J3pθϵϵ2+J3pθϵ+J31, (3.21)

which follows from (3.14).

Case 4. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU4, by (3.11), we derive

LV¯(1p)θEIA+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422(1p)θEIA+J3(1p)θϵϵ2+J3(1p)θϵ+J31, (3.22)

which follows from (3.15).

Case 5. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU5, according to (3.11), we have

LV¯ϑ4Sν+1+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422ϑ4Sν+1+J3ϑ4ϵν+1+J31, (3.23)

which follows from (3.16).

Case 6. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU6, in view of (3.11), we obtain

LV¯ϑ4Eν+1+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422ϑ4Eν+1+J3ϑ4ϵν+1+J31, (3.24)

which follows from (3.16).

Case 7. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU7, by (3.11), we get

LV¯ϑ4ISν+1+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422ϑ4ISν+1+J3ϑ4ϵ2(ν+1)+J31, (3.25)

which follows from (3.17).

Case 8. For any (S,E,IS,IA)TU8, according to (3.11), we derive

LV¯ϑ4IAν+1+M(c1pβθμ+αS+γS+c1(1p)βηθμ+αA+γA)Eϑ4(Sν+1+Eν+1+ISν+1+IAν+1)+βηIA+βIS+J1+3μ+αS+αA+γS+γA+ρ122+ρ322+ρ422ϑ4IAν+1+J3ϑ4ϵ2(ν+1)+J31, (3.26)

which follows from (3.17).

Thus, according to (3.18), (3.20), (3.21), (3.22), (3.23), (3.24), (3.25), (3.26), we derive that for a sufficiently small ϵ,

LV¯1for any(S,E,IS,IA)TR+4Uϵ,

which implies that the condition (A2) in Lemma 3.1 also holds. In view of Lemma 3.1, we obtain that system (1.3) has a unique stationary distribution π() and the ergodicity holds. This completes the proof.

4. Probability density for system (1.3)

By Theorem 3.1, we obtain that the global positive solution (S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t))T admits a unique ergodic stationary distribution π() if R0S>1. In this section, we will obtain the explicit expression of the probability density of the distribution π(). Although there are many works that have used the Lyapunov equation (see (4.7) below) to find the probability distribution, such as the papers [23], [24], [25], [26], the monograph of van Kampen [27], and other works. But most of them have used numerical methods, while here we will give an analytical solution which is very interesting since there are few works on it. Firstly, two necessary transformations of system (1.3) should be introduced.

4.1. Two important transformations of system (1.3)

(I) (Logarithmic transformation) Let (u1,u2,u3,u4)T=(lnS,lnE,lnIS,lnIA)T. Then by Itô’s formula, which is shown inAppendix, and system (1.3), we have

du1=[Λeu1βeu3βηeu4(μ+ρ122)]dt+ρ1dB1(t),du2=[βeu1+u3u2+βηeu1+u4u2(μ+θ+ρ222)]dt+ρ2dB2(t),du3=[pθeu2u3(μ+αS+γS+ρ322)]dt+ρ3dB3(t),du4=[(1p)θeu2u4(μ+αA+γA+ρ422)]dt+ρ4dB4(t). (4.1)

Assume that R0S>1, there is the quasi-endemic equilibrium P(S,E,IS,IA)=(eu1,eu2,eu3,eu4)TR+4 determined by the following equations:

Λeu1βeu3βηeu4μ1=0,βeu1+u3u2+βηeu1+u4u2(μ2+θ)=0,pθeu2u3(μ3+αS+γS)=0,(1p)θeu2u4(μ4+αA+γA)=0, (4.2)

where μi=μ+ρi2/2 for any i=1,2,3,4. Therefore, in view of (4.2), we can obtain that

S=Λ(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)βIA[η(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)+p(μ4+αA+γA)]+μ1(1p)(μ3+αS+γS),
E=ΛβIA[η(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)+p(μ4+αA+γA)][βIA(η(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)+p(μ4+αA+γA))+μ1(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)](μ2+θ),
IS=pIA(μ4+αA+γA)(1p)(μ3+αS+γS),

and IA is the unique positive root of the following quadratic equation

(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)+p(μ4+αA+γA)βIA[η(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)+p(μ4+αA+γA)]+μ1(1p)(μ3+αS+γS)(μ4+αA+γA)(μ2+θ)(1p)Λβθ=0.

(II) (Equilibrium offset transformation) Let X=(x1,x2,x3,x4)T=(u1u1,u2u2,u3u3,u4u4)T, the corresponding linearized system of (4.1) is as follows

dx1=(a11x1a13x3a14x4)dt+ρ1dB1(t),dx2=(a21x1a21x2+a23x3+a24x4)dt+ρ2dB2(t),dx3=(a32x2a32x3)dt+ρ3dB3(t),dx4=(a42x2a42x4)dt+ρ4dB4(t), (4.3)

where

a11=ΛS>0,a13=βIS>0,a14=βηIA>0,a21=βS(ηIA+IS)E>0,a23=βSISE>0,
a24=βηSIAE>0,a32=pθEIS>0,a42=(1p)θEIA>0.

It is easy to obtain that a13a24a14a23=0, a13a21a11a23<0, a14a21a11a24<0.

Before introducing the corresponding probability density, we still need to introduce an important definition and two necessary lemmas.

Definition 4.1 [28]

The characteristic polynomial of the square matrix An is defined as φAn(λ)=λn+a1λn1++an1λ+an, then An is called a Hurwitz matrix if and only if An has all negative real-part eigenvalues, i.e., 

Hk=a1a3a5a2k11a2a4a2k20a1a3a2k301a2a2k4000ak>0,k=1,2,,n,

where the complementary definition is aj=0, j>n. Additionally, the corresponding necessary conditions for An to be a Hurwitz matrix are as follows

(i)aj>0,j=1,2,,n;(ii)aiai+1>ai1ai+2,i=1,2,,n2(a0=1).

Lemma 4.1 [29], [30]

For the algebraic equation H02+C0Σ0+Σ0C0T=0 , where H0=diag(1,0,0,0) and Σ0 is a real symmetric matrix, and the standard matrix

C0=τ1τ2τ3τ4100001000010.

If τ1>0 , τ3>0 , τ4>0 and τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4>0 , then Σ0 is a positive definite matrix, where

Σ0=τ2τ3τ1τ42(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ1τ2τ32τ4(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4).

Here C0 in this form is called the standard R1 matrix.

Lemma 4.2 [29]

For the algebraic equation H02+C~0Θ0+Θ0C~0T=0 , where H0=diag(1,0,0,0) , Θ0 is a real symmetric matrix, and the standard matrix

C~0=l1l2l3l410000100000a21.

If l1>0 , l3>0 and l1l2l3>0 , then the matrix Θ0 is semi-positive definite which follows

Θ0=l22(l1l2l3)012(l1l2l3)0012(l1l2l3)0012(l1l2l3)0l12l3(l1l2l3)00000.

Here C~0 in this form is called the standard R2 matrix.

4.2. Probability density of stationary distribution π()

Theorem 4.1

If R0S>1 , then the stationary solution (S(t),E(t),IS(t),IA(t))T of system (1.3) around P follows a unique log-normal probability density Φ(S,E,IS,IA) , which takes the form

Φ(S,E,IS,IA)=(2π)2|Σ|12e12(lnSS,lnEE,lnISIS,lnIAIA)Σ1(lnSS,lnEE,lnISIS,lnIAIA)T,

where the covariance matrix Σ is positive definite, and the specific form of Σ is given as follows.

(1) If m10 , m30 and m50 .

If m20 , m40 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 , m4=0 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T;

If m20 , m40 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T;

If m20 , m4=0 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 , m40 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m20 , m4=0 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 , m40 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 , m4=0 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T.

(2) If m1=0 , m3=0 and m5=0 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T.

(3) If m10 , m3=0 and m5=0 .

If m20 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T.

(4) If m1=0 , m30 and m5=0 .

If m40 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T;

If m4=0 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T.

(5) If m1=0 , m3=0 and m50 .

If m60 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T.

(6) If m10 , m30 and m5=0 .

If m20 and m40 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T;

If m20 and m4=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 and m40 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 and m4=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T.

(7) If m10 , m3=0 and m50 .

If m20 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m20 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m2=0 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T+ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T.

(8) If m1=0 , m30 and m50 .

If m40 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m40 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T;

If m4=0 and m60 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T;

If m4=0 and m6=0 , then

Σ=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T+ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T+ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T+ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T,

with

J1=10000100001000a42a321,J3=a21a32a32(a21+a32)(a23a32+a24a42+a322)a24a320a32a32000100001,
J2=a21a32m1a32(a21+a32+a42)m1(a23a32+a24a42+a322+a32a42+a422)m1a24a32m1a4230a32m1(a32+a42)m1a42200m1a420001,
J4=0100001010000001,J5=1000010000100a42a3201,J6=10000100001000a42(a32a42)a13a32+a14a421,
J7=(a13a32+a14a42)m2j7(12)j7(13)j7(14)0a13a32+a14a42a32m2(a11+a42)m2j7(24)00m2a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a420001,
J8=(a13a32+a14a42)a11a13+a13a32+a14a42(a11+a42)a32(a11+a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)2a14(a11+a42)0a13a32+a14a42a32a11a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a1400100001
J9=(a13a32+a14a42)(a11a13+a13a32+a14a42+a11a14a42a32)a112a14(a11+a42)0a13a32+a14a42a32a11a1400100001,
J10=0010010000011000,J11=1000010000100a13a2301,J12=10000100001000m3a421,
J13=a23a42m4a42(a11+a21+a42)m4j13(13)j13(14)0a42m4(a13a21a23a11a42)m4(a13a21a11a23)2a23200m4a13a21a11a23a230001,
J14=a23a42a42(a21+a42+a13a21a23)a24a42+a21m3+a422a21a420a42a42000100001,
J15=a23a42a42(a21+a42+a13a21a23)a42(a24+a42)a21a420a42a42000100001,
J16=0001010000101000,J17=1000010000100a14a2401,J18=10000100001000m5a321,
J19=a24a32m6a32(a11+a21+a32)m6j19(13)j19(14)0a32m6(a14a21a24a11a32)m6(a14a21a11a24)2a24200m6a14a21a11a24a240001,
J20=a24a32a32(a21+a32+a14a21a24)a23a32+a322+a21m5a21a320a32a32000100001
J21=a24a32a32(a21+a32+a14a21a24)a32(a23+a32)a21a320a32a32000100001,
Σ0=τ2τ3τ1τ42(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ1τ2τ32τ4(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4),
Θ¯0=l¯22(l¯1l¯2l¯3)012(l¯1l¯2l¯3)0012(l¯1l¯2l¯3)0012(l¯1l¯2l¯3)0l¯12l¯3(l¯1l¯2l¯3)00000,
Θ~0=l~22(l~1l~2l~3)012(l~1l~2l~3)0012(l~1l~2l~3)0012(l~1l~2l~3)0l~12l~3(l~1l~2l~3)00000,
Θˆ0=lˆ22(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)012(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)0012(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)0012(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)0lˆ12lˆ3(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)00000,Θˇ0=lˇ22(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)012(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)0012(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)0012(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)0lˇ12lˇ3(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)00000,
Θ1=p22(p1p2p3)012(p1p2p3)0012(p1p2p3)0012(p1p2p3)0p12p3(p1p2p3)00000,
Θ¯1=p¯22(p¯1p¯2p¯3)012(p¯1p¯2p¯3)0012(p¯1p¯2p¯3)0012(p¯1p¯2p¯3)0p¯12p¯3(p¯1p¯2p¯3)00000,
Θ~1=p~22(p~1p~2p~3)012(p~1p~2p~3)0012(p~1p~2p~3)0012(p~1p~2p~3)0p~12p~3(p~1p~2p~3)00000,
j7(12)=(a11a13+a13a42+a13a32+a14a42+a14a42(a11+a42)a32)m2,
j7(13)=(a11+a42)(a11+a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)m2+(a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42)2m2a14m22,
j7(14)=a14(a11+2a42a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)m2+(a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42)3,
j7(24)=(a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42)2a14m2,
j13(13)=(a112+a11a42+a24a42+a422a13(a11a21+a212+a21a42)a23)m4,j13(14)=(a13a21a11a23)3a233+a21a42m4,
j19(13)=(a112+a11a32+a23a32+a322a14a21(a11+a21+a32)a24)m6,j19(14)=(a14a21a11a24)3a243+a21a32m6,
m1=a42(a32a42)a32,m2=a42(a11a42)(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42+a14a422(a42a32)2(a13a32+a14a42)2,m3=a13(a11a21)a23a132a21a232,
m4=a13a21+a23a42a11a23a23a42m3,m5=a14(a11a21)a24a142a21a242,m6=a14a21+a24a32a11a24a24a32m5,
ϱ1=a21a32m1ρ1,ϱ¯1=a21a32ρ1,ϱ2=(a13a32+a14a42)m2ρ2,ϱ~2=(a13a32+a14a42)ρ2,
ϱ3=a23a42m4ρ3,ϱˇ3=a23a42ρ3,ϱ4=a24a32m6ρ4,ϖ1=a23a42ρ3,ϖ2=a24a32ρ4,ϖ3=a24a32ρ4,
τ1=a11+a21+a32+a42,τ2=a11a21+a11a32+a11a42+a21a32+a21a42+a32a42a23a32a24a42,
τ3=a11a21a32+a11a21a42+a11a32a42+a13a21a32+a14a21a42+a21a32a42a11a23a32a11a24a42a23a32a42a24a32a42,
τ4=a11a21a32a42+a13a21a32a42+a14a21a32a42a11a23a32a42a11a24a32a42,l¯1=a11+a21+a32,
l¯2=a11a21+a11a32+a21a32a23a32a24a42,l¯3=a11a21a32+a11a24a42+a13a21a32a11a23a32a14a21a42,
l~1=a21a11a13a322+a14a422a13a32+a14a42,l~2=a11a21+a11a32+a14a32a42(a42a32)+a21(a13a322+a14a422)a13a32+a14a42a23a32a24a42,
l~3=(a21a32a23a32a24a42)(a11+a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)+a21(a13a32+a14a42+a42(a42a32)),
lˆ1=a11+a21+a32,lˆ2=a11a21+a11a32+a21a32a23a32a24a42,
lˆ3=a11a21a32+a13a21a32+a14a21a42a11a23a32a11a24a42,
lˇ1=a21+a32+a42+a13a21a23,lˇ2=a21a32+a21a42+a32a42+a13a21a23(a32+a42)a23a32a24a42a21m3,
lˇ3=a32a42(a13a21a23+a21a23a24a21m3a42),
p1=a21+a32+a42+a13a21a23,p2=a13a21(a32+a42)a23+a21a32+a21a42+a32a42a23a32a24a42,
p3=a32a42(a13a21a23+a21a23a24),p¯1=a21+a32+a42+a14a21a24,
p¯2=(a32+a42)(a21+a32+a14a21a24)a23a32a322a24a42a21m5,p¯3=a32a42(a14a21a24+a21a23a24)a21a42m5,
p~1=a21+a32+a42+a14a21a24,p~2=a21a32+a21a42+a32a42+a14a21(a32+a42)a24a23a32a24a42,
p~3=a32a42(a14a21a24+a21a23a24).

Proof

For convenience and simplicity, let B(t)=(B1(t),B2(t),B3(t),B4(t))T and

C=a110a13a14a21a21a23a240a32a3200a420a42,H=ρ10000ρ20000ρ30000ρ4.

With these notations, system (4.3) can be simplified to the following equivalent form

dX(t)=CX(t)dt+HdB(t).

In the light of the continuous Markov processes theory [31], system (4.3) has a unique density function Φ(x1,x2,x3,x4,t), which can be determined by the following four-dimensional Fokker–Planck equation

tΦ(X(t),t)+X(t)[CX(t)Φ(X(t),t)]i=14ρi222xi2Φ(X(t),t)=0. (4.4)

Next, we will give the exact expression of the probability density by solving Eq. (4.4). Note that Φ(X(t),t)/t=0 under a stationary case, then (4.4) becomes

x1[(a11x1a13x3a14x4)Φ]+x2[(a21x1a21x2+a23x3+a24x4)Φ]+x3[(a32x2a32x3)Φ]+x4[(a42x2a42x4)Φ]i=14ρi222Φxi2=0. (4.5)

Additionally, since the diffusion matrix H is a constant matrix, then the probability density Φ(X) can be described by a Gaussian distribution through the study of Roozen [32], that is,

Φ(X)=cexp{12XQXT},

where Q is a real symmetric matrix and c is a positive constant satisfying the normalization condition R4Φ(X)dX=1.

Substituting these results into (4.5), we can obtain the constant c=(2π)2|Σ|12 and Q satisfies the following algebraic equation

QH2Q+QC+CTQ=0. (4.6)

If the matrix Q is positive definite, hence it is invertible, we define Q1=Σ, then the algebraic equation (4.6) can be equivalently rewritten as

H2+CΣ+ΣCT=0. (4.7)

By the finite independent superposition principle [31], (4.7) is equivalent to the sum of the following four algebraic sub-equations,

Hi2+CΣi+ΣiCT=0,i=1,2,3,4,

where H1=diag(ρ1,0,0,0), H2=diag(0,ρ2,0,0), H3=diag(0,0,ρ3,0), H4=diag(0,0,0,ρ4), and the symmetric matrices Σi (i=1,2,3,4) are their solutions, respectively. Obviously, Σ=Σ1+Σ2+Σ3+Σ4 and H2=H12+H22+H32+H42.

In order to obtain the positive definiteness of Σ, we define the characteristic equation of matrix C as

φC(λ)=λ4+τ1λ3+τ2λ2+τ3λ+τ4=0, (4.8)

where

τ1=a11+a21+a32+a42,τ2=a11a21+a11a32+a11a42+a21a32+a21a42+a32a42a23a32a24a42,

τ3=a11a21a32+a11a21a42+a11a32a42+a13a21a32+a14a21a42+a21a32a42a11a23a32a11a24a42a23a32a42a24a32a42,

τ4=a11a21a32a42+a13a21a32a42+a14a21a32a42a11a23a32a42a11a24a32a42.

According to the expressions of S, E, IS, IA and R0S>1, we can prove that

τ1>0,τ3>0,τ4>0,τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4>0,

which implies that all the roots of the characteristic equation (4.8) have negative real-parts and so the matrix C is a Hurwitz matrix.

Since the matrices C and C2 (see (4.10) below) are similar, in view of the similarity invariant of the characteristic polynomial in linear algebra, we obtain that φC(λ) is the similarity invariant of matrix C. It is easy to get that τ1, τ2, τ3 and τ4 are also similarity invariants. Thus, there exists a unique standard R1 matrix of C.

Now we are in the position to give the specific form of Σ and prove its positive definiteness. We divide the proof process into four steps.

Step 1. Consider the algebraic equation

H12+CΣ1+Σ1CT=0. (4.9)

Let C1=J1CJ11, where the elimination matrix J1 is given by

J1=10000100001000a42a321.

Direct calculation leads to that

C1=a110a13a32+a14a42a32a14a21a21a23a32+a24a42a32a240a32a32000m1a42,

where

m1=a42(a32a42)a32.

Based on the value of m1, we will consider the following two cases:

(1) m10; (2) m1=0.

Case 1. If m10, let C2=J2C1J21, where the standardized transformation matrix J2 takes the form

J2=a21a32m1a32(a21+a32+a42)m1(a23a32+a24a42+a322+a32a42+a422)m1a24a32m1a4230a32m1(a32+a42)m1a42200m1a420001.

By direct computation, we have

C2=C0=τ1τ2τ3τ4100001000010 (4.10)

where τ1, τ2, τ3 and τ4 are the same as above. Moreover, Eq. (4.9) can be equivalently transformed into the following form

(J2J1)H12(J2J1)T+C2[(J2J1)Σ1(J2J1)T]+[(J2J1)Σ1(J2J1)T]C2T=0,

i.e., 

H02+C2Σ0+Σ0C2T=0,

where Σ0=ϱ12(J2J1)Σ1(J2J1)T, ϱ1=a21a32m1ρ1. It is noticed that the matrix C has all negative real-part eigenvalues, then C2 is a standard R1 matrix. According to Lemma 4.1, we can obtain that the matrix Σ0 is positive definite whose explicit form is

Σ0=τ2τ3τ1τ42(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ1τ2τ32τ4(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4).

Therefore, the matrix Σ1=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T is also positive definite.

Case 2. If m1=0, let C3=J3C1J31, where the standardized transformation matrix J3 takes the form

J3=a21a32a32(a21+a32)(a23a32+a24a42+a322)a24a320a32a32000100001.

Then we obtain

C3=l¯1l¯2l¯3l¯410000100000a42

where

l¯1=a11+a21+a32,l¯2=a11a21+a11a32+a21a32a23a32a24a42,
l¯3=a11a21a32+a11a24a42+a13a21a32a11a23a32a14a21a42,l¯4=a32(a14a21+a24a42a11a24).

Then Eq. (4.9) can be transformed into the following equivalent form

(J3J1)H12(J3J1)T+C3[(J3J1)Θ¯0(J3J1)T]+[(J3J1)Θ¯0(J3J1)T]C3T=0,

i.e., 

H02+C3Θ¯0+Θ¯0C3T=0,

where Θ¯0=ϱ¯12(J3J1)Σ1(J3J1)T, ϱ¯1=a21a32ρ1. In view of Lemma 4.2, we get that the matrix Θ¯0 is semi-positive definite whose explicit form is

Θ¯0=l¯22(l¯1l¯2l¯3)012(l¯1l¯2l¯3)0012(l¯1l¯2l¯3)0012(l¯1l¯2l¯3)0l¯12l¯3(l¯1l¯2l¯3)00000.

Thus, the matrix Σ1=ϱ¯12(J3J1)1Θ¯0[(J3J1)1]T is also semi-positive definite and there exists a positive constant ν1 such that

Σ1ν11000000000000000.

Step 2. Consider the algebraic equation

H22+CΣ2+Σ2CT=0. (4.11)

Let C4=J4CJ41, where

J4=0100001010000001,C4=a21a23a21a24a32a32000a13a11a14a4200a42.

Let C5=J5C4J51, where the elimination matrix J5 takes the form

J5=1000010000100a42a3201.

Direct calculation leads to that

C5=a21a23a32+a24a42a32a21a24a32a32000a13a32+a14a42a32a11a140m10a42,

where

m1=a42(a32a42)a32.

In view of the value of m1, we will consider the following two cases:

(1) m10; (2) m1=0.

Case 1. If m10, let C6=J6C5J61, where the elimination matrix J6 is given by

J6=10000100001000a42(a32a42)a13a32+a14a421.

Then

C6=a21a23a32+a24a42a32a21+a24a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a24a32a32000a13a32+a14a42a32a11a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a1400m2a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42,

and

m2=a42(a11a42)(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42+a14a422(a42a32)2(a13a32+a14a42)2.

Considering the following two cases:

(i) m20; (ii) m2=0.

Case 1.1. If m20, let C7=J7C6J71, where the standardized transformation matrix J7 is given by

J7=(a13a32+a14a42)m2j7(12)j7(13)j7(14)0a13a32+a14a42a32m2(a11+a42)m2j7(24)00m2a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a420001,

and

j7(12)=(a11a13+a13a42+a13a32+a14a42+a14a42(a11+a42)a32)m2,
j7(13)=(a11+a42)(a11+a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)m2+(a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42)2m2a14m22,
j7(14)=a14(a11+2a42a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)m2+(a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42)3,
j7(24)=(a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42)2a14m2.

By direct computation, we have

C7=τ1τ2τ3τ4100001000010

Then Eq. (4.11) can be equivalently transformed into the following form

(J7J6J5J4)H22(J7J6J5J4)T+C7[(J7J6J5J4)Σ2(J7J6J5J4)T]+[(J7J6J5J4)Σ2(J7J6J5J4)T]C7T=0,

that is,

H02+C7Σ0+Σ0C7T=0.

Note that the matrix C has all negative real-part eigenvalues, then C7 is a standard R1 matrix. According to Lemma 4.1, this means that Σ0 is positive definite, which takes the form

Σ0=τ2τ3τ1τ42(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)τ32(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)00τ12(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4)0τ1τ2τ32τ4(τ1τ2τ3τ32τ12τ4),

where Σ0=ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)Σ2(J7J6J5J4)T and ϱ2=(a13a32+a14a42)m2ρ2. Thus, the matrix Σ2=ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T is also positive definite.

Case 1.2. If m2=0, let C8=J8C6J81, where the transformation matrix J8 takes the form

J8=(a13a32+a14a42)a11a13+a13a32+a14a42(a11+a42)a32(a11+a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)2a14(a11+a42)0a13a32+a14a42a32a11a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a1400100001.

By simple computation, we obtain

C8=l~1l~2l~3l~410000100000a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42a42,

where

l~1=a21a11a13a322+a14a422a13a32+a14a42,l~2=a11a21+a11a32+a14a32a42(a42a32)+a21(a13a322+a14a422)a13a32+a14a42a23a32a24a42,
l~3=(a21a32a23a32a24a42)(a11+a14a42(a42a32)a13a32+a14a42)+a21[a13a32+a14a42+a42(a42a32)],
l~4=a14(a13a32+a14a42+a422a23a32a24a42)a13a14a21a32(a42a32)+a14(a13a323+a14a423)a13a32+a14a42a13a14a32(a42a32)(a13a322+a14a422)(a13a32+a14a42)2.

So Eq. (4.11) can be equivalently transformed into the following form

(J8J6J5J4)H22(J8J6J5J4)T+C8[(J8J6J5J4)Σ2(J8J6J5J4)T]+[(J8J6J5J4)Σ2(J8J6J5J4)T]C8T=0,

i.e., 

H02+C8Θ~0+Θ~0C8T=0,

where Θ~0=ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)Σ2(J8J6J5J4)T, ϱ~2=(a13a32+a14a42)ρ2. By Lemma 4.2, we obtain that the matrix Θ~0 is semi-positive definite whose explicit form is

Θ~0=l~22(l~1l~2l~3)012(l~1l~2l~3)0012(l~1l~2l~3)0012(l~1l~2l~3)0l~12l~3(l~1l~2l~3)00000.

Hence, the matrix Σ2=ϱ~22(J8J6J5J4)1Θ~0[(J8J6J5J4)1]T is also semi-positive definite and there exists a positive constant ν2 such that

Σ2ν20000010000000000.

Case 2. If m1=0, let C9=J9C5J91, where the standard transformation matrix J9 is given by

J9=(a13a32+a14a42)(a11a13+a13a32+a14a42+a11a14a42a32)a112a14(a11+a42)0a13a32+a14a42a32a11a1400100001.

By direct calculation, we obtain

C9=lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3lˆ410000100000a42

where

lˆ1=a11+a21+a32,lˆ2=a11a21+a11a32+a21a32a23a32a24a42,
lˆ3=a11a21a32+a13a21a32+a14a21a42a11a23a32a11a24a42,
lˆ4=a13a24a32+a14a21a32+a14a422a14a21a42a14a23a32a14a32a42.

In addition, Eq. (4.11) can be transformed into the following form

(J9J5J4)H22(J9J5J4)T+C9[(J9J5J4)Σ2(J9J5J4)T]+[(J9J5J4)Σ2(J9J5J4)T]C9T=0,

that is,

H02+C9Θˆ0+Θˆ0C9T=0,

where Θˆ0=ϱ~22(J9J5J4)Σ2(J9J5J4)T, ϱ~2=(a13a32+a14a42)ρ2. According to Lemma 4.2, it can be concluded that the matrix Θˆ0 is semi-positive definite whose explicit form is

Θˆ0=lˆ22(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)012(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)0012(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)0012(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)0lˆ12lˆ3(lˆ1lˆ2lˆ3)00000.

Therefore, the matrix Σ2=ϱ~22(J9J5J4)1Θˆ0[(J9J5J4)1]T is also semi-positive definite and there exists a positive constant κ1 such that

Σ2κ10000010000000000.

Step 3. Consider the algebraic equation

H32+CΣ3+Σ3CT=0. (4.12)

Let C10=J10CJ101, where the ordering matrix J10 takes the form

J10=0010010000011000.

Then we have

C10=a32a3200a23a21a24a210a42a420a130a14a11.

Let C11=J11C10J111, where the elimination matrix J11 is given by

J11=1000010000100a13a2301.

Direct calculation leads to that

C11=a32a3200a23a21(a13+a23)a23a24a210a42a4200m30a13a21a11a23a23,

where

m3=a13(a11a21)a23a132a21a232.

Next, we will consider the following two conditions:

(1) m30; (2) m3=0.

Case 1. If m30, let C12=J12C11J121, where the elimination matrix J12 is given by

J12=10000100001000m3a421,

then

C12=a32a3200a23a21(a13+a23)a23a24a42+a21m3a42a210a42a42000m4a13a21a11a23a23,

where

m4=a13a21+a23a42a11a23a23a42m3.

Considering the following two conditions:

(i) m40; (ii) m4=0.

Case 1.1. If m40, let C13=J13C12J131, where the standardized transformation matrix J13 takes the form

J13=a23a42m4a42(a11+a21+a42)m4j13(13)j13(14)0a42m4(a13a21a23a11a42)m4(a13a21a11a23)2a23200m4a13a21a11a23a230001,

and

j13(13)=(a112+a11a42+a24a42+a422a13(a11a21+a212+a21a42)a23)m4,j13(14)=(a13a21a11a23)3a233+a21a42m4.

In view of the uniqueness of the standard R1 matrix, we can conclude that

C13=τ1τ2τ3τ4100001000010.

By letting Σ0=ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)Σ3(J13J12J11J10)T, where ϱ3=a23a42m4ρ3, then Eq. (4.12) is equivalent to the following form

H02+C13Σ0+Σ0C13T=0.

By Lemma 4.1, we can obtain that Σ0 is positive definite and so the matrix Σ3=ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T is also positive definite.

Case 1.2. If m4=0, let C14=J14C12J141, where the standardized transformation matrix J14 is given by

J14=a23a42a42(a21+a42+a13a21a23)a24a42+a21m3+a422a21a420a42a42000100001,

then

C14=lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3lˇ410000100000a13a21a11a23a23

where

lˇ1=a21+a32+a42+a13a21a23,lˇ2=a21a32+a21a42+a32a42+a13a21a23(a32+a42)a23a32a24a42a21m3,
lˇ3=a32a42(a13a21a23+a21a23a24a21m3a42),lˇ4=a21a42(a11a32a13a21a23).

Then we can transform Eq. (4.12) into the following form

(J14J12J11J10)H32(J14J12J11J10)T+C14[(J14J12J11J10)Σ3(J14J12J11J10)T]+[(J14J12J11J10)Σ3(J14J12J11J10)T]C14T=0,

i.e., 

H02+C14Θˇ0+Θˇ0C14T=0,

where Θˇ0=ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)Σ3(J14J12J11J10)T, ϱˇ3=a23a42ρ3. By Lemma 4.2, we can conclude that the matrix Θˇ0 is semi-positive definite whose explicit form is as follows

Θˇ0=lˇ22(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)012(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)0012(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)0012(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)0lˇ12lˇ3(lˇ1lˇ2lˇ3)00000.

Hence, the matrix Σ3=ϱˇ32(J14J12J11J10)1Θˇ0[(J14J12J11J10)1]T is also semi-positive definite and there exists a positive constant ν3 such that

Σ3ν30000000000100000.

Case 2. If m3=0, then

C11=a32a3200a23a21(a13+a23)a23a24a210a42a420000a13a21a11a23a23.

Let C15=J15C11J151, where the standardized transformation matrix J15 takes the form

J15=a23a42a42(a21+a42+a13a21a23)a42(a24+a42)a21a420a42a42000100001,

then

C15=p1p2p3p410000100000a13a21a11a23a23

where

p1=a21+a32+a42+a13a21a23,p2=a13a21(a32+a42)a23+a21a32+a21a42+a32a42a23a32a24a42,
p3=a32a42(a13a21a23+a21a23a24),p4=a21a42(a11a32a13a21a23).

Then Eq. (4.12) can be transformed into the following equivalent form

(J15J11J10)H32(J15J11J10)T+C15[(J15J11J10)Σ3(J15J11J10)T]+[(J15J11J10)Σ3(J15J11J10)T]C15T=0,

that is,

H02+C15Θ1+Θ1C15T=0,

where Θ1=ϖ12(J15J11J10)Σ3(J15J11J10)T, ϖ1=a23a42ρ3. From Lemma 4.2 it follows that the matrix Θ1 is semi-positive definite whose explicit form is as follows

Θ1=p22(p1p2p3)012(p1p2p3)0012(p1p2p3)0012(p1p2p3)0p12p3(p1p2p3)00000.

Consequently, the matrix Σ3=ϖ12(J15J11J10)1Θ1[(J15J11J10)1]T is also semi-positive definite and there exists a positive constant κ2 such that

Σ3κ20000000000100000.

Step 4. Consider the algebraic equation

H42+CΣ4+Σ4CT=0. (4.13)

Let C16=J16CJ161, where

J16=0001010000101000,C16=a42a4200a24a21a23a210a32a320a140a13a11.

Let C17=J17C16J171, where the elimination matrix J17 is given by

J17=1000010000100a14a2401.

Direct calculation leads to that

C17=a42a4200a24a21(a14+a24)a24a23a210a32a3200m50a14a21a11a24a24,

where

m5=a14(a11a21)a24a142a21a242.

Next, we will consider the following two conditions:

(1) m50; (2) m5=0.

Case 1. If m50, let C18=J18C17J181, where the elimination matrix J18 takes the form

J18=10000100001000m5a321.

Then we have

C18=a42a4200a24a21(a14+a24)a24a23a32+a21m5a32a210a32a32000m6a14a21a11a24a24,

where

m6=a14a21+a24a32a11a24a24a32m5.

Considering the following two conditions:

(i) m60; (ii) m6=0.

Case 1.1. If m60, let C19=J19C18J191, where the standardized transformation matrix J19 is given by

J19=a24a32m6a32(a11+a21+a32)m6j17(13)j17(14)0a32m6(a14a21a24a11a32)m6(a14a21a11a24)2a24200m6a14a21a11a24a240001,

and

j19(13)=(a112+a11a32+a23a32+a322a14a21(a11+a21+a32)a24)m6,j19(14)=(a14a21a11a24)3a243+a21a32m6.

By direct calculation and the uniqueness of the standard R1 matrix, we obtain that

C19=τ1τ2τ3τ4100001000010

Then Eq. (4.13) can be equivalently transformed into the following form

(J19J18J17J16)H42(J19J18J17J16)T+C19[(J19J18J17J16)Σ4(J19J18J17J16)T]+[(J19J18J17J16)Σ4(J19J18J17J16)T]C19T=0,

that is,

H02+C19Σ0+Σ0C19T=0,

where Σ0=ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)Σ4(J19J18J17J16)T and ϱ4=a24a32m6ρ4. According to Lemma 4.1, we derive that the matrix Σ0 is positive definite and hence the matrix Σ4=ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T is also positive definite.

Case 1.2. If m6=0, let C20=J20C18J201, where the transformation matrix J20 takes the form

J20=a24a32a32(a21+a32+a14a21a24)a23a32+a322+a21m5a21a320a32a32000100001

Direct calculation leads to that

C20=p¯1p¯2p¯3p¯410000100000a14a21a11a24a24,

where

p¯1=a21+a32+a42+a14a21a24,p¯2=(a32+a42)(a21+a32+a14a21a24)a23a32a322a24a42a21m5,
p¯3=a32a42(a14a21a24+a21a23a24)a21a42m5,p¯4=a21a32(a11a42a14a21a24).

Then we can transform Eq. (4.13) into the following equivalent form

(J20J18J17J16)H42(J20J18J17J16)T+C20[(J20J18J17J16)Σ4(J20J18J17J16)T]+[(J20J18J17J16)Σ4(J20J18J17J16)T]C20T=0,

that is,

H02+C20Θ¯1+Θ¯1C20T=0,

where Θ¯1=ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)Σ4(J20J18J17J16)T and ϖ2=a24a32ρ4. In view of Lemma 4.2, we get that the matrix Θ¯1 is semi-positive definite whose explicit form is as follows

Θ¯1=p¯22(p¯1p¯2p¯3)012(p¯1p¯2p¯3)0012(p¯1p¯2p¯3)0012(p¯1p¯2p¯3)0p¯12p¯3(p¯1p¯2p¯3)00000.

Accordingly, the matrix Σ4=ϖ22(J20J18J17J16)1Θ¯1[(J20J18J17J16)1]T is also semi-positive definite and there exists a positive constant ν4 such that

Σ4ν40000000000000001.

Case 2. If m5=0, then

C17=a42a4200a24a21(a14+a24)a24a23a210a32a320000a14a21a11a24a24.

Let C21=J21C17J211, where the standardized transformation matrix J21 is given by

J21=a24a32a32(a21+a32+a14a21a24)a32(a23+a32)a21a320a32a32000100001,

then

C21=p~1p~2p~3p~410000100000a14a21a11a24a24

where

p~1=a21+a32+a42+a14a21a24,p~2=a21a32+a21a42+a32a42+a14a21(a32+a42)a24a23a32a24a42,
p~3=a32a42(a14a21a24+a21a23a24),p~4=a21a32(a11a42a14a21a24).

Then Eq. (4.13) can be transformed into the following equivalent form

(J21J17J16)H42(J21J17J16)T+C21[(J21J17J16)Σ4(J21J17J16)T]+[(J21J17J16)Σ4(J21J17J16)T]C21T=0,

that is,

H02+C21Θ~1+Θ~1C21T=0,

where Θ~1=ϖ32(J21J17J16)Σ4(J21J17J16)T, ϖ3=a24a32ρ4. In view of Lemma 4.2, we obtain that the matrix Θ~1 is semi-positive definite whose explicit form is as follows

Θ~1=p~22(p~1p~2p~3)012(p~1p~2p~3)0012(p~1p~2p~3)0012(p~1p~2p~3)0p~12p~3(p~1p~2p~3)00000.

Thus, the matrix Σ4=ϖ32(J21J17J16)1Θ~1[(J21J17J16)1]T is also semi-positive definite and there exists a positive constant κ3 such that

Σ4κ30000000000000001.

Now we are in the position to prove the matrix Σ=Σ1+Σ2+Σ3+Σ4 in Eq. (4.7) is positive definite. If m1=0, m3=0 and m5=0, then the covariance matrix

Σ=Σ1+Σ2+Σ3+Σ4ν11000000000000000+κ10000010000000000+κ20000000000100000+κ30000000000000001(ν1κ1κ2κ3)1000010000100001.

Since the parameters ν1 and κi (i=1,2,3) are positive, so the matrix Σ is positive definite. Similarly, we can prove that in other cases, the covariance matrix Σ is also positive definite. Hence, according to the relationship between systems (4.1), (4.3), we get that the stationary distribution π() around P follows a unique log-normal probability density Φ(S,E,IS,IA), which takes the form

Φ(S,E,IS,IA)=(2π)2|Σ|12e12(lnSS,lnEE,lnISIS,lnIAIA)Σ1(lnSS,lnEE,lnISIS,lnIAIA)T,

where the specific form of Σ can be determined by the above discussion. This completes the proof.

5. Numerical simulations

In this section, numerical simulations are carried out to verify the theoretical results. For the stochastic system (1.3), we adopt the Milstein higher-order method developed in [33] and the discretization form of the stochastic system is given by:

Sk+1=Sk+[ΛμSkβSk(ηIAk+ISk)]Δt+Sk[ρ1Δtϖ1,k+ρ122(ϖ1,k21)Δt],Ek+1=Ek+[βSk(ηIAk+ISk)(μ+θ)Ek]Δt+Ek[ρ2Δtϖ2,k+ρ222(ϖ2,k21)Δt],ISk+1=ISk+[pθEk(μ+αS+γS)ISk]Δt+ISk[ρ3Δtϖ3,k+ρ322(ϖ3,k21)Δt],IAk+1=IAk+[(1p)θEk(μ+αA+γA)IAk]Δt+IAk[ρ4Δtϖ4,k+ρ422(ϖ4,k21)Δt],

where the time step Δt>0, ρi2 denote the intensity of white noises, ϖi,k (i=1,2,3,4;k=1,2,,n) are mutually independent Gaussian random variables following the distribution N(0,1). Based on the realistic parameter values in the literature, the parameter values in all the simulations are chosen from Table 2.

Table 2.

List of parameters.

Parameter Units Range References
Λ day1 0.05812 [34]
μ day1 [833650000,180.3×365] CIAc
β day1 0.4417 [6]
η day1 0.75 CDCa
p day1 0.5 Assumed
θ day1 [114,12] [35], [36], [37]
αS day1 0.05 Estimated
αA day1 0.04 Estimated
γS day1 0.24 Assumed
γA day1 110.5 [8]

Next, by numerical simulations, we mainly pay attention to validate two aspects:

(i) there is a unique ergodic stationary distribution if the condition R0S>1 holds;

(ii) the existence of the probability density.

Example 5.1

In order to obtain the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution numerically, we choose μ=83/3650000, θ=1/2, σ1=σ2=σ3=σ4=0.15 and the other parameter values are given in Table 2. Direct calculation leads to that

R0S=pβΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αS+γS+ρ322)+(1p)βηΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αA+γA+ρ422)9.3965>1.

In other words, the condition of Theorem 3.1 is satisfied. By Theorem 3.1, we obtain that system (1.3) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution π() which shows that the disease is persistent a.s. Fig. 1 confirms this.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

The left column shows the time series diagrams of the susceptible population, the exposed population, the asymptomatic population and the symptomatic population in the stochastic model (1.3) and their corresponding deterministic model (1.2) with μ=83/3650000, θ=1/2, σ1=σ2=σ3=σ4=0.15. The right column displays the marginal density function and frequency histogram of each population.

Example 5.2

To show the existence of the probability density around the quasi-endemic equilibrium, we choose μ=83/3650000, θ=1/2, σ1=σ2=σ3=σ4=0.15 and the other parameter values are shown in Table 2. By direct calculation, we obtain P=(S,E,IS,IA)T=(0.5035,0.1162,0.1002,0.2148)T and

R0S=pβΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αS+γS+ρ322)+(1p)βηΛθ(μ+ρ122)(μ+θ+ρ222)(μ+αA+γA+ρ422)9.3965>1.

That is to say, the condition of Theorem 4.1 holds. Hence, system (1.3) has a log-normal probability density around the quasi-endemic equilibrium P. Furthermore, we have m1=0.0932055>0, m2=0.08528<0, m3=0.586066<0, m4=0.03658>0, m5=1.8849<0 and m6=0.37849>0. Thus, according to the first case of Theorem 4.1, we calculate the specific expression of the covariance matrix Σ,

Σ=ϱ12(J2J1)1Σ0[(J2J1)1]T+ϱ22(J7J6J5J4)1Σ0[(J7J6J5J4)1]T+ϱ32(J13J12J11J10)1Σ0[(J13J12J11J10)1]T+ϱ42(J19J18J17J16)1Σ0[(J19J18J17J16)1]T=0.14400.046260.0037520.073150.046260.22270.20440.15760.0037520.20440.23030.16870.073150.15760.16870.2407,

and the corresponding probability density Φ(S,E,IS,IA) is as follows

Φ(S,E,IS,IA)=(2π)2|Σ|12e12(lnSS,lnEE,lnISIS,lnIAIA)Σ1(lnSS,lnEE,lnISIS,lnIAIA)T=4.4792exp{12(lnS0.5035,lnE0.1162,lnIS0.1002,lnIA0.2148)Σ1(lnS0.5035,lnE0.1162,lnIS0.1002,lnIA0.2148)T}.

Fig. 2 shows this.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Numerical simulations for: (i) the frequency histogram fitting density curves of S, E, IS and IA of system (1.3) with 50 000 iteration points, respectively. (ii) The marginal probability densities of S, E, IS and IA of system (1.3). All of the parameter values are the same as in Fig. 1.

6. Conclusion

In this paper, we formulate and analyze a stochastic SEIR-type model which is used to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in the population. Firstly, we prove that system (1.3) has a unique global positive solution with any given positive initial value. Then we use a stochastic Lyapunov function method to obtain sufficient criteria for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution, which is a probability distribution with some invariant properties. In particular, under the same conditions as the existence of a stationary distribution, we get the exact expression of the probability density, which is a function that describes the probability of the output value of the random variable around the quasi-endemic equilibrium of system (1.3). Mathematically, the existence of a stationary distribution implies the weak stability in stochastic sense while the existence of the probability density of system (1.3) is more in-depth and specific than that of the stationary distribution. Biologically, the existence of a stationary distribution and probability density indicates the persistence and coexistence of all individuals.

Numerically, based on the actual parameter values in the existing literature, we obtain two important results: (i) small environmental noise makes each population fluctuate very little and hence it can retain some stochastic weak stability to some extent; (ii) we get the specific expression of the probability density around the quasi-endemic equilibrium of system (1.3).

On the other hand, there are still many important topics worthy of further study. For example, in this paper, we assume that the compartment R acquires permanent immunity and cannot be infected by the infectious individuals. However, in fact, some people who had been infected COVID-19 may be infected once again if they are in close contact with someone who has COVID-19 and thus they will become susceptible. With that in mind, using an SEIRS-type model to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 may be more proper. But for the SEIRS-type model, because of its high dimension, when we calculate the local probability density, the discussion will become more complicated. In addition, it is also interesting to study the effects of other types of random perturbations (such as nonlinear perturbations, Poisson jumps et al.) on COVID-19 models. So far as we know, there is little literature to analyze five-dimensional epidemic models with nonlinear perturbations [38], [39], [40] since there are many obstacles to solving the corresponding Fokker–Planck equation due to the limitations of mathematical methods. We look forward to fully addressing it in the near future. The relevant work is now underway.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Qun Liu: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Writing – original draft, Formal analysis, Supervision, Writing – review & editing, Funding acquisition.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 12001090) and the Jilin Provincial Science and Technology Development Plan Project, China (No. YDZJ202201ZYTS633).

Appendix. Preliminaries of SDEs

Here we give some basic theories of stochastic differential equations (see [17] for a detailed introduction).

Consider a d-dimensional stochastic differential equation

dX(t)=f(X(t),t)dt+g(X(t),t)dB(t)fortt0, (A.1)

with the initial value X(t0)=X0Rd, where B(t) is a d-dimensional standard Brownian motion defined on the complete probability space (Ω,F,{Ft}t0,P). Let C2,1(Rd×[t0,];R¯+) be the family of all nonnegative functions V(X,t) defined on Rd×[t0,] such that they are continuously twice differentiable in X and once in t. The differential operator L related to Eq. (A.1) is defined by [17]

L=t+i=1dfi(X,t)Xi+12i,j=1d[gT(X,t)g(X,t)]ij2XiXj. (A.2)

By operating L on a function VC2,1(Rd×[t0,];R¯+), we have

LV(X,t)=Vt(X,t)+VX(X,t)f(X,t)+12trace[gT(X,t)VXX(X,t)g(X,t)],

where Vt=V/t, VX=(V/X1,,V/Xd) and VXX=(2V/(XiXj))d×d. If X(t)Rd, then the Itô’s formula is described as follows:

dV(X(t),t)=LV(X(t),t)dt+VX(X(t),t)g(X(t),t)dB(t).

Data availability

No data was used for the research described in the article.

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Data Availability Statement

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