An inquiry into the Pakistani statecraft in tackling COVID-19

Abstract

As the second largest country in South Asia, Pakistan has succeeded relatively well in tackling COVID-19 after it broke out in 2020. Due to this, it is necessary to inquire into Pakistan's statecraft to find out how it responded to the pandemic issue, first domestically and then globally. As one of the key neighboring countries of China where the large-scale pandemic started, Pakistan has been very vulnerable to the epidemic. However, the Pakistani government led by Imran Khan has achieved a remarkable record in controlling COVID-19. No doubt, the domestic progress in Pakistan is destined to enhance its reputation abroad. For example, the international community has extended encouraging words and deeds to Pakistan, while some developed EU countries have policies designed by Pakistani Goverment because Islamabad has adopted successful social security and financial stimulus strategies. This study aims to give a balanced understanding of what policy, approaches, and strategies have been used by the current ruling elites of Pakistan; and how the domestic achievements have effectively bolstered its prestigious image on the global stage.

Introduction

Pakistan, like other countries, initially was not fully able to tackle the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. In the early stages of the outbreak, coronavirus seriously affected the economic, health, and social system of the country (Shafi et al., 2020). However, the government handled the problem skillfully and strategically. The aim of our study is to document Pakistan's policy response to a pandemic. This article mainly studies the main research problem of how Pakistan responded to COVID-19 internally and externally. It argues that, domestically, Pakistan has adopted social protection strategies such as a nationwide and smart lockdown strategy, the Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program, the Ehsaas Savings Wallet (ESW), the Corona Relief Tiger Force (CRTF), and a financial stimulus program. Under the EEC program, the government provided 12,000 Pakistani rupees to 15 million families, which was enough to feed them for three months. This initiative has been widely praised by the international community, including by the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG), and has been emulated by Germany, Italy, and Portugal. The government then launched the ESW program, which focused on the economic situation of 7 million poor women. It then put forward the idea of the CRTF, the main focus of which was to cooperate with the government to implement COVID-19's standard operating procedures (SOPs) and to check the prices of goods on the market to ensure that no one derives illegal benefits from the circumstances (Ali and Ali, 2020). In order to recover the economic losses faced by many stakeholders, the government launched a financial stimulus package.

At the external level, the foreign policy responses were mainly to provide support for neighboring countries to achieve foreign policy goals, such as playing a leadership role in the region, providing humanitarian assistance, enhancing its regional and international image, and protecting its economy from outbreaks in neighboring countries such as India, Afghanistan, and China. This article is divided into two main parts. The first part is the domestic response, which is further divided into three parts: lockdown, social response, and economic response. The last part deals with the foreign policy responses to COVID-19. This study is a new contribution to research on the domestic and foreign policy responses to COVID-19, which has been neglected in academic writing. This research can be used in future strategies to overcome pandemics such as coronavirus and to achieve foreign policy goals in this context.

Domestic response

Pakistan filed its initial case of COVID-19 on February 26, 2020, in a traveler who had just returned from Iran (Abid et al., 2020). The outbreak occurred about 60 days after that in the Chinese city of Wuhan. In most states, outbreaks were caused by students and others who had traveled back from China, but in Pakistan the first case was imported from Iran rather than China. Over the next few days, Islamabad launched a series of protective standards, including temperature tests at ports of entry and demanding overseas immigrants share their travel records. As cases were mushrooming in the following weeks in March, the Pakistani administration led by Imran Khan halted international migration from states with high contagion rates on March 13, 2020. Subsequently, from mid-March, all international flights to Pakistan were banned for a limited time. Pakistan followed the quarantine strategy to isolate people infected with the virus to restrain the diffusion of the pandemic. In order to protect and treat infected people, the government established highly dependent wards and intensive care units. At first, due to the people's lack of trust in the government and the lack of understanding of the citizens themselves, there were mixed reactions in society. For these reasons, it was difficult for the Government of Pakistan to overcome an epidemic quickly because most people believed it was just a rumor and the government hoped to receive assistance from developed countries (Ali, 2020).

However, the government continued its efforts to respond to the global pandemic by creating a powerful emergency operations center and using a strategy to detect the route of the pandemic spread in the country. Because of the nature of the pandemic, this strategy was most appropriate because it was spread as a result of the travel of citizens from different countries to Pakistan. Because of this strategy, Islamabad tracked people with a history of overseas travel to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. It was also important to prevent people from coming into contact with the rest of the community, which is the second root cause of the global spread of the pandemic. The second response of the government was to monitor the border, as most of the cases were imported from Iran and Afghanistan, and the European Union. This was another challenge for the new government led by Khan. Opposition leaders and the Pakistani people continued to strike against the government and put pressure on it to resume international travel so that citizens could return home (Raza et al., 2021). In a democracy, the voice of citizens is important because the government comes to power through its support. In this context, the government took another positive initiative to establish quarantine centers near borders and airports, particularly at the borders of Iran. However, this was another challenge for the government because of the country's economic situation. At the end of March 2020, the government decided to redeploy quarantine centers to their respective provinces, where the provincial government could contribute to the fight against this terrible epidemic and reduce the burden on the federal government.

The quarantined housing strategy was crucial for three reasons. First of all, the people stranded at the border and their families were asked to bring them back. Secondly, it was vital to isolate these people in specific quarantine places for 14 days so that others living safely in the country would not be threatened. The third reason was that the government did not know how to deal with the pressure of the public, the opposition, and the epidemic. As a result, isolating people in different places may make it easier for governments to make other decisions and strategies that may encounter outbreaks. The government's next most urgent response was the implementation of the lockdown strategy, which will be discussed in detail in the next section.

Nationwide and smart lockdown

To restrain mushrooming of the pandemic, Islamabad implemented a national blockade strategy at the end of March. The protection of the Pakistani people and other foreigners living in the country at that time was an important decision of the government. All commercial and non-commercial centers, including educational institutions, shopping centers, parks, sports centers, restaurants, and government offices, were closed down to minimize the mushrooming of the epidemic. Only hospitals, pharmacies, grocery stores, and vegetable and fruit stores were kept open. The lockdown was announced by Khan and effectively implemented with his approval. However, the government faced challenges in implementing the strategy as political parties were divided over what they saw as the worst possible economic situation in the country (Siddiqi, 2021). The opposition argued that the strategy would pose a huge threat to the fragile economy and would mainly affect daily wage workers. However, the government was sure that there was no solution to the problem other than imposing a lockdown, particularly in areas considered to be high risk. Initially, the number of cases did not peak, so this strategy was vital to reduce the surge of the pandemic.

Here, too, it was logical and meaningful for Khan’s government to build solidarity and a sense of community among its citizens as a vital component of its response to the outbreak. The unity of Pakistanis has been a fundamental concern and challenge for any government in Pakistan since its independence. However, because of the pandemic, for the first time, the people of Pakistan came together to fight the pandemic. In the second wave of COVID-19, the rate of positive cases was 8 to 11 percent, so the administration determined to impose a partial (smart) lockdown rather than a complete lockdown (Asghar et al., 2020). The main focus of this strategy was high-risk areas and complete closures in those areas to diminish the diffusion of COVID-19. This time, the opposition was blackmailing the government because they believed the only answer to the outbreak was a nationwide lockdown, not a smart lockdown. The opposition was asking the government to learn from rival India, which had imposed a nationwide lockdown. However, Khan was not in favor of this, and the smart blockade continued because of the country's fragile economy and the problem of daily wage workers. Khan responded, “Their [the Indian] government imposed a lockdown at once without thinking anything of the public. They only thought of the upper class and elite like us” (Dawn, 2021b).

The international community appreciated and recognized Pakistan’s smart lockdown measures against the COVID-19 pandemic because this strategy valued the balance between life and livelihood. Khan mentioned in a tweet: “The world has discovered the only solution [to COVID-19] a smart lockdown which allows for economic activity with the standard operating procedure. We are amongst the pioneers of this approach” (Tribune, 2020). Ferdinando Giugliano (2020), a well-known columnist for Bloomberg, mentioned in his report that Germany, Italy, and Portugal were among the first to follow Khan's idea of smart lockdown. The epidemic was mushrooming in these countries; the only urgent solution was a smart lockdown, where Pakistan had already achieved fruitful results. Giugliano (2020) stated:

But if Europe is successful in this new phase of its fight against the pandemic, the economic and social benefits could be huge. Only a vaccine or a benign mutation will ensure that the COVID-19 threat is over. Until then, smart lockdowns are the best hope we have.

Khan believed that people would not die of epidemics, but would certainly die of hunger. He stated that “You cannot keep hungry people under a lockdown if you do not have the resources to bring them food” (Dawn, 2021b). Even in the face of the third wave, the smart lockdown strategy continued. According a report by Oxfam (2020):

By the end of the year, 12,000 people per day could die from hunger linked to Covid-19, potentially more than will die from the disease itself. This is more than the peak global coronavirus death rate of 10,000 per day in April [2020].

Because of this reality, the smart lockdown policy continued even in the face of the fourth wave of the global pandemic. The fourth wave was mainly the Delta virus, which originated in India and was considered more powerful than the other variants. In July 2021, a day after the National Command and Operations Centre (NCOC) announced the existence of other variants such as Beta (South America) and Alpha (UK), Khan addressed the nation and asked them to cooperate in complying with standard operating procedures to overcome the fourth wave.

Social policy responses

The lockdown in the country mainly affected the middle classes, especially daily wage workers. As noted above, at the initial stage, the government imposed a blockade throughout the country, which was not conducive to day-to-day work. However, this strategy made no sense and was unlikely to be followed by people unless they were given free food. Khan worried about the daily wage workers, stating that “A lockdown is not a curfew, when you enforce a curfew what will your poorest segment of society do?” and that “A lockdown is necessary to control the virus outbreak but we need to be taken care of as well” (Global Security, 2020). In this regard, his government launched the EEC program within days of the lockdown to support the middle class and the daily wage workers. Initially, under the plan, the government decided to give 12 million people 12,000 Pakistani rupees so that they could buy food for at least three months. This task was assigned to Dr Sania Nishtar, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister for poverty alleviation and social protection. The government later determined to increase the total number of families enrolled in the cash transfer program to 15 million. It launched a digital system to reach qualified people and to control hunger. Citizens were asked to send their national identity card number to 8171 to check whether they were eligible to be paid. The government also launched a portal where people could easily register and check their eligibility. The web-based portal made the job easier, and was a key step in reducing outbreaks, as the government required people to visit district administrative offices by April 2020. The government collaborated with private banks and other businesses to establish centers where people could get cash. This was one of the biggest challenges for the newly formed government because of the lack of technology and data of the middle class and daily wage workers. Another big challenge was connectivity. Later, the government overcame the problem and shifted policy from banks to small retailers because bank branches were not available in most places.

The EEC strategy was highly praised by the international community, including the IPC-IG, which noted in its report (Nishtar, 2021) that Pakistan has responded to the pandemic very effectively and wisely. The report further noted that:

The Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program demonstrated how cash transfer programs can be deployed to counter the socio-economic fallout due to external shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic. The lockdown in Pakistan—the fifth most populous country in the world—affected the livelihood of 24.9 million. (Nishtar, 2021)

Such social responses of Pakistan could be applied to epidemics and general social protection in the future. The World Bank also highly appreciated the EEC, and listed Pakistan as the fourth largest social protection intervention state in the world by the number of people covered. On July 7, 2021, Khan thanked the NCOC, the EEC team, and the State Bank of Pakistan because the economists ranked Pakistan as the best country to handle the coronavirus and ranked it third. In the Economist's ranking of each country based on its 100th score, Pakistan scored 84.4, Hong Kong 96.3, New Zealand 87.8, and India 46.5 (ranked 48th) (News, 2021).

In May 2021, the Prime Minister launched the ESW social initiative (Ehsaas Bachat Bank Account), which focused on the economic situation of 7 million poor women. This was significant for middle-class women because women's financial inclusion can help them become mainstream and reduce poverty. Speaking at his inauguration, Khan said:

I believe savings can help families to climb out the poverty, access to saving accounts is often the first step towards broader financial inclusion. By paying for emergency expenditures through savings, vulnerable families are also protected from falling further into the poverty trap. (Government of Pakistan, 2021)

Another important initiative in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic was the creation of the CRTF, an idea proposed by Khan himself. As an athlete, Khan knows how to mobilize and encourage people to cooperate with the government in certain situations. The CRTF was a 1 million volunteer-based community group responsible for implementing the coronavirus SOPs, guiding and informing people, checking the prices of daily necessities on the market, and implementing the 20-point SOPs specially designed for the holy month of Ramadan. CRTF members were mostly young students, retired doctors, teachers, engineers, and military personnel. They went door-to-door instructing people, tracking the COVID-19 pandemic, and providing people with readymade food.

Economic policy response

COVID-19 has seriously affected Pakistan’s already fragile economy. At the initial stage, the government implemented a complete nationwide lockdown strategy, due to which many commercial centers, industries, restaurants, retailers, and supermarkets closed. As the supply chain was cut off and imports and exports were banned, people worried about their jobs, investment, and trade. Investors in Pakistan were looking for options to protect their assets, but this was not an easy task at the initial stage. Pakistan's stock market initially fell 1500 points in early March 2020, which had a big impact on the country's economy. Khan cleverly solved this problem and shifted from a complete blockade to a smart lockdown to protect the economy. He launched a financial stimulus package to overcome difficulties in the economy. Here are 12 key points of this package:

1) Labour: The premier announced that a sum of Rs200 billion was being allotted for labourers across the country. He further said that his government was coordinating with provinces to convince businesses not to lay off labourers. 2) Industries and export: While saying that the export industry was the most affected industry in the country, the prime minister announced that the export sector would be given tax refunds of Rs100 billion immediately. Their interest payments would be deferred as well. 3) Small and medium industries and agriculture: A further Rs100 billion are to be earmarked for small and medium industries and the agriculture sector. Their interest payments will be deferred and they will also be able to enjoy concessional loans at low interest rates. Farmers across the country will also enjoy lower costs of input. 4) Low-income families: The premier announced that a package of Rs150 billion would be allocated for low-income families and would be distributed among them over a period of 4 months. The prime minister also promised that these families would be given cash payments of Rs3,000 each month. 5) Sanctuaries: The prime minister also announced an expansion of sanctuaries to accommodate more people. He pointed out that the existing sanctuaries were being overwhelmed in the wake of the outbreak and therefore a mechanism for medical screening for new entrants was also being constituted. 6) Utility stores: A sum of Rs50 billion is to be earmarked for utility stores to ensure the constant availability of food and other necessities. For wheat procurement, the prime minister announced that the government was budgeting Rs280 billion so that wheat farmers do not face cash flow issues during the outbreak. 8) Petrol prices: The prime minister also announced a reduction of Rs15 in the prices of petroleum, diesel, light diesel and kerosene. The premier pointed out that this was set to impact the government by up to Rs75 billion. 9) Electricity and gas: The prime minister announced that consumers who were utilising 300 units of electricity would be allowed to pay their bills in installments over the next three months. This would mean that 81 per cent of consumers who incur a bill of around Rs2000 each month would also be able to pay the [sic] in installments over three months. 10) Medical workers: The prime minister announced that a sum of Rs50 billion was being set aside for the purchase of personal protective equipment for health workers. He also assured them of the government's full support in their fight against the novel coronavirus. 11) Food items: The premier announced that taxes on food items such as sugar, wheat and pulses would either be reduced or eradicated completely. 12) Emergency: The premier also stated that a sum of Rs100 billion was budgeted in case of emergencies. (Dawn, 2020)

Foreign policy response

With the first case of COVID-19 in Pakistan at the end of February 2020, it was difficult to predict how much loss the pandemic would do to the Pakistani economy, and if the country could easily recover and contain the pandemic. With a large number of cases springing up in Pakistan, the initial focus of the media was that China was at the root of the problem. When the virus initially originated in Wuhan, China, global media commenced to report on the virus; Pakistani media began to report on Pakistani students at Wuhan University. The Pakistani media did not report the problem unless some Pakistani students went viral about their situation on social media. According to a report by China’s Ministry of Education in 2018, more than 28,023 Pakistani students were studying in different universities in China (Ashraf, 2020). Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed that 500 students from different universities in Wuhan were trapped where five people were infected with the virus. However, a technical committee set up by the Pakistani government decided not to withdraw the students for the time being. This decision not only showed Pakistan was not ready for such an arrangement, but also assured Islamabad’s solidarity with Beijing in such a difficult situation. The Pakistani government assured the Chinese government that Pakistani students in China were willing to help the Chinese people. The most typical example is of Dr Usman, who volunteered to help the Chinese people. The Chinese Embassy in Pakistan said, “We appreciate Dr. Muhammad Usman Janjua, a foreign doctor to join the fight against coronavirus in China as a volunteer. He is a teacher from Changsha Medical University, China, and hails from Deena, Jhelum, Pakistan” (Hongrui, 2020).

Islamabad's first response to the virus outbreak in China was to express sympathy, and support for the Chinese people. In a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Khan ensured the Chinese government that Islamabad would defend Beijing in its fight against the pandemic. He stated Pakistan's “Unequivocal solidarity with the Chinese leadership and people in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak” (Khan, 2020). He also assured him that Islamabad was ready to send a medical team to China to help them. Pakistan's Senate was the first in the world to pass a resolution supporting China's fight against COVID-19. The Senate:

expresses its appreciation to the government of China for treating Pakistani citizens, especially students in Wuhan just like their own citizens, providing them with protection and comfort. The Senate extends full cooperation to [their] Chinese brethren in this difficult moment of the coronavirus crisis. (Junaidi, 2020)

In this section, we have examined Pakistan's foreign policy responses to global epidemics, which is what this article calls Pakistan's dual diplomatic objectives: 1) to help formulate global policies to deal with epidemics, as far as possible to avoid major economic disasters that could have serious internal consequences. (2) To support the brother country in this difficult situation that would further strengthen both states’ relations. The next section will discuss Pakistan’s foreign policy response to hostile India.

Pakistan's response to India

Pakistan and India have been historical rival states since independence and have fought four wars since then. However, COVID-19 was the first international remedy to ease relations and cooperation between the two countries. According to the theory of realism in international relations, the international system is anarchist, with only zero-sum games and no positive-sum games (Jervis, 1999). However, Pakistan was the first country to try to create opportunities for a positive-sum game in this terrible situation, forget all the bad relations of the past, and concentrate on cooperation with India. It deftly handled COVID-19 internally and was ready to start its external responses to the global pandemic. Prime Minister Imran Khan tweeted:

I want to express our solidarity with the people of India as they battle a dangerous wave of COVID-19. Our prayers for a speedy recovery go to all those suffering from the pandemic in our neighborhood & the world. We must fight this global challenge confronting humanity together. (Mohan, 2021)

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qurashi said in a Tweet: “On behalf of the people of Pakistan, I extend our heartfelt sympathies to the affected families in India” (Mohan, 2021).

The Government of Pakistan provided India with basic medical supplies, including ventilators, personal protective equipment, digital X-ray machines, and other related equipment. The international community appreciated this; as Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program, said: “This is a very generous and significant offer, not just because it's offering to provide supplies to its enemy, but because Pakistan itself is facing a rapidly growing COVID surge” (Gul, 2021). The basic aim of the Pakistani government was to achieve foreign policy objectives: 1) to improve Pakistan's image in the eyes of Indian citizens, 2) to play a leadership role in the region, and 3) to assure the world that humanitarian issues require responses that go beyond political considerations.

Pakistan's response to Afghanistan

The third foreign response to the global epidemic in Pakistan was to help Afghanistan. Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed voiced his support of Afghanistan in the difficult situation. He stated: “They [Afghans] are our brothers, they are our neighbors” (Dawn, 2021a). The Pakistani government continued to support Afghanistan in the fight against COVID-19 even after August 2021 when the Taliban took over Afghanistan and the US fully withdrew its troops from the country. Pakistan sent several trucks of basic aid, confirmed by Pakistan's special representative to Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq. He tweeted: “Pakistan sends yet another convoy of trucks full of material to fight COVID-19. Pakistan stands with Afghanistan in its fight against Corona. Hope and pray both our countries are free of the virus as soon as possible” (Tribune, 2021). There are two reasons for Pakistan's foreign policy responses, firstly to raise the image of Pakistan in the eyes of Afghan leaders and citizens, and secondly to play the role of regional leadership in the region.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated how Pakistan responded to the COVID-19 pandemic on the domestic and global stages. The health, economic, and foreign policy challenges facing Pakistan are enormous. However, Khan's clever strategy and boldness enabled Pakistan to respond to the policy challenges posed by the pandemic. Pakistan's domestic responses are important and have been widely recognized by the international community. It adopted social protection strategies such as the nationwide and smart lockdown strategies, the EEC program, the ESW program, the CRTF, and the financial stimulus program. At first, Pakistan relied on a nationwide lockdown, but Khan soon realized that such a strategy was not the solution. It would weaken the economy and wipe out millions of lives every day. As a result, the government transformed its policy from a nationwide lockdown to a partial smart lockdown. Another idea put forward by the government was to give the poor enough money to support themselves for at least three months. In this context, the government launched the EEC and ESW programs. Another vital domestic policy was the creation of the CRTF and the launching of a financial stimulus program.

In the area of foreign policy, Pakistan took bold initiatives at the regional and global levels to develop a multilateral response to the epidemic. It took the initiative to provide support to friends and adversaries in response to COVID-19 to demonstrate leadership on the global stage. The Government of Pakistan sought to exert and enhance positive influence and regional leadership in addressing the global epidemic, using all available diplomatic channels. It has tried to raise its image, play a leading role in the region, and express sympathy and solidarity with friendly and hostile countries. Pakistan's international image was promoted as it emerged quickly from the epidemic and provided support to other countries. Its policies have been praised by the international community and followed by developed countries such as Germany, Italy, and Portugal.