Abstract
This paper develops and analyzes a SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model with logistic growth of healthy epithelial cells, CTL immune and humoral (antibody) immune responses. The model is incorporated with four mixed (distributed/discrete) time delays, delay in the formation of latent infected epithelial cells, delay in the formation of active infected epithelial cells, delay in the activation of latent infected epithelial cells, and maturation delay of new SARS-CoV-2 particles. We establish that the model’s solutions are non-negative and ultimately bounded. We deduce that the model has five steady states and their existence and stability are perfectly determined by four threshold parameters. We study the global stability of the model’s steady states using Lyapunov method. The analytical results are enhanced by numerical simulations. The impact of intracellular time delays on the dynamical behavior of the SARS-CoV-2 is addressed. We noted that increasing the time delay period can suppress the viral replication and control the infection. This could be helpful to create new drugs that extend the delay time period.
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, Latent infection, Adaptive immunity, Time delay, Lyapunov function, Global stability
1. Introduction
In November 2019, a dangerous type of virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) appeared, and it infects the human body and may lead to death. SARS-CoV-2 causes Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). World Health Organization (WHO) reported in the COVID-19 weekly epidemiological update of 16 January 2022 that, over 323 million confirmed cases and over 5.5 million deaths worldwide [1]. Some symptoms can appear on COVID-19 patients such as: fever, cough, fatigue, sputum production, headache, dyspnoea, diarrhea and hemoptysis [2]. The primary way that people become infected with SARS-CoV-2 is when they are exposed to respiratory fluids carrying the infectious virus. To reduce the SARS-CoV-2 transmission, preventive measures must be implemented such as hand washing, using of face masks, physical and social distancing, disinfection of surfaces and getting COVID-19 vaccine. Fortunately, WHO approved the following COVID-19 vaccines: Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Sinovac, Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinpharm (Beijing), Serum Institute of India, Novavax and Bharat Biotech [3]. Beside vaccination, scientists and researchers are working hard to create new effective drugs for COVID-19 patients.
SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus, belonging to the Coronaviridae family. Epithelial cells with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors are attacked by SARS-CoV-2 [4]. These target cells founded at the respiratory tracks including lungs, nasal and trachea/bronchial tissues [5]. The immune response plays an essential role in controlling the disease progression and clearing the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Adaptive immune response is based on Cytotoxic lymphocytes (CTLs) which kill virus-infected cells and antibodies which neutralize the viruses.
Beside biological and medical research, mathematical modeling of infection diseases were attracted the interest of several researchers. Several epidemiological mathematical models for COVID-19 were proposed to forecast disease severity and assist policy makers for inferring disease-control interventions (see e.g., [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17]).
1.1. Mathematical models of within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection
Mathematical models of within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics can help researchers to understand the replication cycle of SARS-CoV-2 and the immune system response to the viral infection. Moreover, these models enable the merits of different types of antiviral drug therapies to be assessed in individual COVID-19 patients [18]. Many scientists have been interested in modeling and analyzing SARS-CoV-2 dynamics within the host (see the review paper [19]).
-
•Target cell-limited model:Hernandez-Vargas and Velasco-Hernandez [20] proposed the following target cell-limited model forSARS-CoV-2 infection:
where , and are the concentrations of healthy target cells, active infected cells and SARS-CoV-2 particles, at time , respectively. Parameters and are death rate constants of infected cells and SARS-CoV-2 particles, respectively, is the infection rate constant. Abuin et al. [21] studied the mathematical analysis of model (1). The effect of the antiviral Pharmacodynamic therapy which reduce the production of infectious SARS-CoV-2 particles was studied using control theory.(1) -
•Target cell-limited model with latent infected cells:Model (1) was extended in [20] by including two classes of infected cells, latent infected cells and active infected cells as:
where is the concentration of latent infected cells. Parameter represents the activation rate constant of latent infected cells. Ke et al. [22] developed some mathematical models for within-host dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and fitted them to real data. They supported a quantitative framework for concluding the influence of vaccines and therapeutics on the infectiousness of COVID-19 patients and for assessing rapid testing strategies. Based on model (2), Pinky and Dobrovolny developed a mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses coinfection within a host [23]. It was reported that SARS-CoV-2 progression can be suppressed by other viruses when the infections occur at the same time. Gonçalves et al. [24] modified model (2) by including the absorption effect. The last equation of model (2) was modified as: . The model was fitted using real data. The results showed that, less drug efficacy is required to reduce the peak viral load when the treatment is starting before the symptom onset. Wang et al. [25] introduced a within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model with two types of target cells (pneumocytes and lymphocytes). They fitted their model, model (1) and model (2) with real data of COVID-19 patients and non-human primates. The results showed that model with two target cells significantly improves the fit. The effect of antiviral drugs or anti-inflammatory treatments combined with interferon on the viral load and recovery time were studied.(2) -
•Model with effector cells: The following model describes the interaction between effector cells and SARS-CoV-2 [20]:
where is viral replication rate, is the maximum carrying capacity of the viruses, is the concentration of effector cells and is killing rate constant of infected cells by effector cells. The parameter represents the effector cell homeostasis, denotes the proliferation rate of effector cells and is death rate constant of the effector cells, is a saturation constant, and denotes the width of the sigmoidal function. Model (3) was used in many works (see e.g. [26], [27]). In [26], differential evolution algorithm was applied to fit model (3) in case of with experimental data. Blanco-Rodriguez et al. [27] elucidated the key parameters that define the course of the COVID-19 deviating from severe to critical case. Hernandez-Vargas and Velasco-Hernandez [20] used Akaike information criterion to compare between different models. The models were fitted with real data from 9 patients with COVID-19. It was shown that model (3) was better fitting than logarithmic decay and exponential growth models, model (1) and model (2).(3) -
•Model with constant regeneration of target cells:Following the basic within-host viral dynamics model presented by Nowak and Bangham [28], Li et al. [29] formulated the following within host SARS-CoV-2 model:
where is the regeneration rate constant of the healthy epithelial cells and is the concentration of healthy epithelial cells without virus. The model’s parameters were estimated by using Chest radiograph score data in [29]. Sadria and Layton [30] formulated a within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection model with constant regeneration of target cells to simulate the effect of three drug therapies, Remdesivir, an alternative (hypothetical) therapy and transfusion therapy convalescent plasma. It was suggested that therapies are more effective when they applied early, one or two days post symptoms onset [30]. Danchin et al. [31] extended model (4) by including the effect of antibodies. Ghosh [32] formulated a mathematical model that describes the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics with constant regeneration of target cells. Both innate and adaptive immune responses were included. The model was fitted with real data and the effect of different antiviral drugs was addressed. Du and Yuan [5] proposed a within-host model of SARS-CoV-2 infection with constant regeneration of target cells. They studied the influence of the interaction between adaptive and innate immune responses on the peak of viral load in COVID-19 patients. They showed that, temporarily suppress the adaptive immune response to avoid interfering with the innate immune response, it may allow the innate immunity to get rid of the virus more efficiently.(4)
Stability of analysis of within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics models is one of the powerful tools that can provide researchers with better understanding about the dynamics of the virus and how the immune system control and clear the virus. Stability analysis of model (3) was studied by Almocera et al. [33]. It was mentioned that the SARS-CoV-2 may replicate fast enough to overcome the response of the effector cells and cause infection. Hattaf and Yousfi [34] developed a SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model with CTL immune response and cell-to-cell infection. The global stability of the three steady states of the model was studied. Ghanbari [35] extended the model presented in [34] by using fractional derivatives by. Chatterjee and Al Basir [36] studied a SARS-CoV-2 infection model with treatment and CTL immune response. Mondal et al. [37] developed and analyzed a five-dimensional within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model which includes both CTL and antibody immune responses. Elaiw et al. [38] developed and proved the global stability of a SARS-CoV-2/cancer coinfection model with two immune responses: cancer-specific CTL immune response and SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody. Mathematical modeling and analysis of SARS-CoV-2/HIV coinfection dynamics were studied in [39] and [40]. Nath et al. [41] studied the mathematical analysis of model (4). They proved both local and global stability of the two steady states of the model.
Optimal control theory was applied to determine optimal treatment strategies for infected patients with different viruses such as HIV [42], [43], HBV [44], HCV [45]. On the basis of the basic within-host viral dynamics model presented by Nowak and Bangham [28], Chhetri et al. [46] formulated and analyzed within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model under the effect of immunomodulating and antiviral drug therapies. Optimal drug interventions were determined. It was suggested that the combination of immunomodulating and antiviral drug therapies is most effective. In [47], fractional differential equations were used in formulating within-host SARS-CoV-2 model with non-lytic and lytic immune responses. Two types of antiviral drugs were included as control inputs, one for blocking the infection and the other for inhibiting the viral production. Optimal antiviral drugs were determined by solving the fractional optimal control problem.
In most of the above mentioned works, the proliferation of the healthy target cells was not considered. Fatehi et al. [18] and Fadai et al. [48] developed SARS-CoV-2 dynamics models by assuming that the healthy epithelial cells follow logistic growth in the absence of SARS-CoV-2. However, mathematical analysis of these models was not studied.
It was observed experimentally that there exist a time lag between infection of a target cell and the release of new virions [49]. Therefore, several SARS-CoV-2 dynamics models were developed using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) by splitting the infected cells into two compartments, latent infected cells and active (productive) infected cells (see e.g. [18], [20], [22], [23], [25], [30], [50]). Latent infected cells contain viruses but do not produce them until they are activated. These model assumed that one infected, the cell immediately becomes a latent infected cell. Further, these models neglected the time for the latent infected cells to be activated [51]. Furthermore, the maturation time of the new viruses was not considered. To incorporate these time lags we need to formulate the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics using delay differential equations (DDEs). DDEs models can characterize the effect time delay on the dynamical behavior of the virus.
In a very recent work [52], we have studied the global stability of a delayed SARS-CoV-2 infection model with antibody immune response. However, the CTL immune response has not considered. Therefore, our contribution in the present paper is to develop and analyze a within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection model with both CTL and antibody immune responses. The model includes: (i) both latent and active infected epithelial cells, (ii) logistic growth term for the healthy epithelial cells, and (iii) four time delays, the times form the SARS-CoV-2 particles contact the healthy epithelial cells to become latent/active infected cells, the reactivation time of latent infected cells, and the maturation time of new virions. The basic and global properties of the model are studied. To support the theoretical results we performed some numerical simulations. The effect of time delay on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is addressed.
Overall, our proposed model and its analysis can be useful for better understanding the within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics under the effect of both CTL and antibody immune responses. In addition, our study can be helpful to develop coinfection dynamics model with more aggressive variants of SARS-CoV-2 like Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda and Omicron.
2. Model development
This section gives a brief description of the model under consideration. The model takes the form
| (5) |
| (6) |
| (7) |
| (8) |
| (9) |
| (10) |
where , , , and represent the concentrations of healthy epithelial cells, latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, antibodies and CTLs at time , respectively. The healthy epithelial cells are regenerated with constant and are proliferated with logistic growth rate , where is the rate of growth and is the maximum capacity of healthy epithelial cells in the human body. Healthy epithelial cells are infected by SARS-CoV-2 at rate . Parameter is the part of the healthy epithelial cells that enters the latent state, while is the activation rate constant of latent infected cells. is the rate at which active infected cells produces SARS-CoV-2 particles. The infected cells are killed by CTLs at rate . is the neutralization rate of SARS-CoV-2 due to antibody immunity. The terms and refer to the proliferation rate of antibodies and CTLs, respectively. The parameters , , , , and are the death rate constants of healthy epithelial cells, latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, antibodies and CTLs, respectively. The factor represents the probability that healthy epithelial cells touched by SARS-CoV-2 particles at time survived time units and become latent infected cells at time . The factor is the probability that healthy epithelial cells touched by SARS-CoV-2 particles at time survived time units and become active cells infected at time . Here, is random taken from probability distribution functions and over the intervals and , respectively. and are the upper limits of the delay periods. is the period of time during which latent infected cells are activated to produce active infected cells. is the time it takes from the newly released viruses to be mature and then infectious. Factors and represent the survival rates of latent infected cells and viruses during their delay periods and , respectively. The functions and are the distribution functions which satisfy the following conditions:
Let
Hence .
The initial conditions of system (5)–(10) are:
| (11) |
where , , and is the Banach space of continuous functions mapping the interval to with
By the fundamental theory of functional differential equations [53], system (5)–(10) with initial conditions (11) has a unique solution.
Remark 1
When the CTL immune response is not considered, then model (5)–(10) will lead to the model presented in [52]. Further, if we neglect the logistic growth rate term, time delays, CTL immune response and antibody immune response, then system (5)–(10) will lead to system (4), where .
3. Basic properties
This section proves the basic properties of system (5)–(9) including the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions. Moreover, it lists all possible steady states and their existence conditions.
For the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions for the system (5)–(10), we have the following theorem:
Theorem 1
Letbe arbitrary solution of system(5)–(10)with initial conditions (11) . Then, are non-negative on and ultimately bounded.
Proof
Let us write system (5)–(10) in the matrix form , where , , and
We see that the function satisfies the following condition:
Using Lemma 2 in [54], any solution of system (5)–(10) with the initial states (11) is such that for all . Hence, is positively invariant for the system (5)–(10).
Next, we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions. From Eq. (5), we have
(12) From the inequality (12) and the comparison principle, we obtain , where is the positive root of and is given by:
(13) Now, we define
Then, we get
Let us define . Then to find the maximum value of we find
and
Then
Let and , then
Therefore, . Since and , then . To prove the ultimate boundedness of and , we define
Then, we obtain
Let and , then
This implies that . Since and , then and . To prove the ultimate boundedness of and , we consider
This gives
where . Hence, . Since and , then , and . The above analysis proves that and are ultimately bounded.
3.1. Steady states
This subsection computes all steady states of system (5)–(10) and the threshold parameters that guarantee the existence of these steady states. For system (5)–(10) we define the basic reproduction number as [51]:
For convenience, let . Then, can be rewritten as:
Let be any steady state of system (5)–(10) satisfying the following system of equations:
| (14) |
| (15) |
| (16) |
| (17) |
| (18) |
| (19) |
By solving system (14)–(19), we get five steady states:
-
(i)
Healthy steady state , where is given by Eq. (13).
-
(ii)Infected steady state with inactive immune response , where
Assume that , then we get
We note that(20)
From inequality (20) we have . Then
Thus, exists when and . At this steady state the virus exists while the immune response is inhibited. -
(iii)Infected steady state with only active antibody immunity , where
We note that exists when . We define the antibody immunity activation number as:
which determines when the antibody immunity is activated. Thus, . We note that when . Thus, exists when . -
(iv)Infected steady state with only active CTL immunity , where
We note that when . Then, we define the CTL immunity activation number as:
Therefore, exists when .
-
1.Infected steady state with both active antibody and CTL immune responses , where
We see that and exist when and . Now, we define
Hence and can be rewritten as:
Therefore, exists when and . Here, refers to the competed CTL immunity number.
Lemma 1
System (5) – (10) has four threshold parameters , , and , such that:
- (i)
if , then there exists only one steady state ;
- (ii)
if , and , then there exist two steady states and ;
- (iii)
if and , then there exist only three steady states , and ;
- (iv)
if and , then there exist only three steady states , and ;
- (v)
if , then there exist five steady states , , , and .
Remark 2
We note that our proposed model has five steady states, while the model presented in [52] (where the CTL immune response is not considered) has three steady states. Therefore, our proposed model can be more suitable to describe the reaction of the immune system against SARS-CoV-2 infection.
4. Global properties
In this section, the global asymptotic stability of the five steady states , will be established by using Lyapunov approach and applying LaSalle’s invariance principle. Denote .
Theorem 2
Suppose that The steady state is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) when .
Proof
Let
and define a Lyapunov function as:
where and
Clearly, for all , and . The derivative of is computed as:
Hence, along the solutions of system (5)–(10) is given by:
By using system (5)–(10), we obtain
By using the steady state conditions at , we obtain , then
Therefore, we deduce that
At the steady state, we have which implies that . It follows that when . Also, when , and and . The solutions of system (5)–(10) converge to the largest invariant subset of . For any elements in we have and and
(21) Let us consider two cases:
(i) , then Eq. (21) yields . Since is invariant then and from Eq. (8) we get
(22) and hence . From Eq. (7) we obtain
(23) It follows that .
(ii) , we have , then . From Eq. (5) we obtain
Eqs. (22)–(23) give , for all and hence .
By LaSalle’s invariance principle (LIP) [55], we conclude that is GAS when .
Theorem 3
The steady state is GAS when , and .
Proof
Define a function as:
where
Clearly, for all , and . Then, is given by:
Hence, is given by:
By using the derivatives in Eqs. (5)–(10), we get
Then,
By using the steady state conditions at :
we get,
Further, we obtain
We have . Now, using the following equalities:
we get
(24) By using the equality:
and rearranging the . of (24), we get
Since , then we get
We obtain
Also, since , then we get
We obtain
Thus, when , and . Also, when , , , , and . Thus, the largest invariant subset of is . Using LIP we get that is GAS when , and .
Theorem 4
The steady state is GAS when , and .
Proof
Define a function as:
where
Clearly, for all , and . We have
Hence,
(25) Simplifying Eq. (25), we get
(26) At the steady state we have:
then we get,
By using the above conditions, the derivative in (26) is transformed into
The conditions of imply that
Now, using the following equalities:
we get
By using the equality:
and rearranging the . of , we get
We see that when , and . Also, when, , , , and . The solutions of system (5)–(10) tend to the largest invariant subset of . For each element in we have then and from Eq. (8) we have , which gives , for all . It follows that . By applying LIP we get that is GAS when , and .
Theorem 5
The steady state is GAS when , and .
Proof
Define a as:
where
We have for all , and . Then, we have
Hence,
(27) Simplifying Eq. (27) we get
(28) The components of satisfy
Then we get,
By using the above equalities, the derivative in Eq. (28) is transformed into
Now, using the following equalities:
we get
By using the equality:
and rearranging the . of , we get
We see that when , and . Also, when, , , , and . The solutions of system (5)–(10) tend to the largest invariant subset of . For each element in we have then and Eq. (7) becomes , which gives , for all . It follows that . LIP implies that is GAS when , and .
Theorem 6
The steady state is GAS when and .
Proof
Define a function as:
where
We have for all , and . Then, we have
Hence,
(29) Eq. (29) can be written as:
(30) The steady state satisfies the following:
then we get,
By using the above conditions, the derivative in (30) is transformed into
The steady state conditions of imply that
Now, using the following equalities:
we get
By using the equality:
and rearranging the . of , we get
We see that when and . Also, when, , , and . The solutions of system (5)–(10) tend to the largest invariant subset of . For each element in we have , then , and from Eq. (8) we have , which gives , for all . Further, from Eq. (7) we have , which gives , for all . It follows that . LIP implies that is GAS when and
Based on the above findings, we summarize the existence and global stability conditions for all steady state points in Table 1.
Table 1.
| Steady state | Global stability conditions |
|---|---|
| , and | |
| , and | |
| , and | |
| and |
5. Numerical simulations
In this section, we execute numerical simulations to enhance the results of Theorems 2–6. Besides, we study the impact of time delays on the dynamical behavior of the system. Let us take a particular form of the probability distributed functions as:
where is the Dirac delta function. When , we have
We have
Moreover,
Hence, model (5)–(10) becomes:
| (31) |
| (32) |
| (33) |
| (34) |
| (35) |
| (36) |
The basic reproduction number of model (31)–(36) is given by:
| (37) |
To solve system (31)–(36) we use the MATLAB solver dde23. Without loss of generality let us consider for simplicity that . The values of some parameters of model (31)–(36) are chosen as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and . The remaining parameters of the model will be varied. In fact, obtaining real measurements from COVID-19 patients is difficult, therefore we have chosen the values of the model’s parameters just to conduct the numerical simulations. However, if one can get real data, then the parameters of the model can be estimated and the model can be validated. We select three different sets of initial conditions for (31)–(36):
where .
5.1. Stability of steady states
In this subsection we address the stability of the five steady states with , and and are varied.
Case 1 (Stability of): , and . Using these data, we compute . According to Theorem 2, is GAS and the SARS-CoV-2 is predicted to be completely removed from the body. From Fig. 1, we can see that the numerical results agree with the results of Theorem 2. We observe that, the concentration of healthy epithelial cells is increased and converged to its normal value , while the concentrations of latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, antibodies and CTLs are extremely decaying and tend to zero.
Fig. 1.
Solutions of system (31)–(36) with three initial conditions when . (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.
Case 2 (Stability of): , and . Using these data, we compute , and . According to Theorem 3, is GAS. From Fig. 2, we see that there is an agreement between the numerical and results of Theorem 3. In addition, the states of the system converge to the steady state .
Fig. 2.
Solutions of system (31)–(36) with three initial conditions when , and . (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.
Case 3 (Stability of): , and . Using these data, we compute and . According to Theorem 4, is GAS. The numerical solutions displayed in Fig. 3 is consistent with results of Theorem 4. Further, the states of the system converge to the steady state .
Fig. 3.
Solutions of system (31)–(36) with three initial conditions when , and . (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTL cells.
Case 4 (Stability of): , and . Using these data, we compute and . According to Theorem 5, is GAS and this is shown in Fig. 4. We can see that, the states of the system converge to the steady state .
Fig. 4.
Solutions of system (31)–(36) with three initial conditions when , and . (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.
Case 5 (Stability of): , and . Using these data, we compute and . According to Theorem 6, is GAS and this is clarified numerically in Fig. 5. The states of the system converge to the steady state .
Fig. 5.
Solutions of system (31)–(36) with three initial conditions when and . (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTL cells.
5.2. Effect of the time delay on the SAR-CoV-2 dynamics
In this subsection, we explore the impact of time delays on the stability of the steady states. We observe from Eq. (37) that the parameter relies on the delay parameter which causes a significant change in the stability of the system. To clarify this situation, we choose , , and is varied. Moreover, we consider the initial condition initial-3. Fig. 6 shows the influence of time delay on the solution trajectories of the system. We notice that as time delay is increased the number of the healthy epithelial cells is increased, while the numbers of latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, CTLs and antibodies are decreased. When all other parameters are fixed and delays are varied,can be written as:
We can see that is a decreasing function of . When the delay length becomes sufficiently large, becomes less than or equal one, which makes the healthy steady state is GAS. From a biological viewpoint, time delays play positive roles in the SARS-CoV-2 infection process in order to eliminate the virus. Sufficiently large time delays makes the SARS-CoV-2 development slower, and the SARS-CoV-2 is controlled and disappears. This gives us some suggestions on new drugs to prolong the time of formation of latent infected epithelial cells, or the time of formation of active infected epithelial cells, or the time of activation of latent infected epithelial cells, or the time for SARS-CoV-2 particles to mature (infectious). Now we calculate the range of the time delay which makes . Let us compute the minimum delay length that solves the equation and makes the system has only one steady state . Using the values of the parameters we get, . From Fig. 6 we can see the following scenarios:
Fig. 6.
Solutions of system (31)–(36) under the influence of the time delays . (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.
(i) if , then and the system has a single steady state and it is GAS;
(ii) if , then and one of the other steady states is GAS.
6. Conclusion
In this paper, we formulated a SARS-CoV-2 infection model with distributed and discrete delays and adaptive immune response. Four time delays are included in the model: delay in the formation of latent infected cells, delay in the formation of active infected cells, delay in the activation of latent infected cells, maturation delay of new SARS-CoV-2 particles. We consider a logistic term for the healthy epithelial cells. The non-negativity and boundedness of the solutions of the models have been shown. Further, we derived four threshold parameters, the basic infection reproductive ratio , the active antibody immunity reproductive ratio , the active CTL immunity reproductive ratio and the competed CTL immunity reproductive ratio . The global stability of all steady states of the models was investigated by constructing Lyapunov functions and LaSalle’s invariance principal. We obtained that the infection-free steady state is GAS when . When , and the infected steady state with inactive immune response is GAS. When , and the infected steady state with only active antibody immune response is GAS. While, the infected steady state with only active CTL immune response is globally asymptotically stable when , and . Finally, we found that the infected steady state with both active antibody and CTL immune responses is GAS when and . We performed the numerical simulations for the model and we showed that both numerical and theoretical results are consistent. Moreover, we have demonstrated that the increase of time delays period can play the same influence as the antiviral treatment.
Model (5)–(10) assumes that viruses and cells are well mixed and neglected the mobility of them. Viruses and cells can move and go from high concentration regions to low concentration regions [56], [57], [58], [59]. Taking into account the mobility of viruses and cells, model (5)–(9) can be extended as:
where , is the Laplacian operator and is the diffusion coefficient corresponding to compartment of the model.
Our model can also be extended by (i) expanding to multiscale model to get a deeper understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics [60], [61] and (ii) considering stochastic interactions [62], [63], [64], [65], [66].
CRediT authorship contribution statement
A.M. Elaiw: Conceptualization, Methodology. A.J. Alsaedi: Formal analysis, Writing – original draft. A.D. Hobiny: Investigation. S. Aly: Writing – review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This project was funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia under grant no. (201/130/1434). The authors, therefore, acknowledge with thanks DSR technical and financial support.
Data availability
No data was used for the research described in the article.
References
- 1.Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) World Health Organization (WHO); 2022. Weekly Epidemiological Update (16 January 2022) Available online: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports. [Google Scholar]
- 2.Huang C., Wang Y., Li X., Ren L., Zhao J., Hu Y., Zhang L., Fan G., Xu J., Gu X., et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet. 2020;395(10223):497–506. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 3.Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) World Health Organization (WHO); 2021. Vaccine Tracker. Available online: https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/agency/who/ [Google Scholar]
- 4.Varga Z., Flammer A.J., Steiger P., Haberecker M., Andermatt R., Zinkernagel A.S., et al. Endothelial cell infection and endotheliitis in COVID-19. Lancet. 2020;395:1417–1418. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30937-5. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 5.Du S.Q., Yuan W. Mathematical modeling of interaction between innate and adaptive immune responses in COVID-19 and implications for viral pathogenesis. J. Med. Virol. 2020;92(9):1615–1628. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25866. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 6.Currie C., Fowler J., Kotiadis K., Monks T. How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of COVID-19. J. Simul. 2020;14(2):83–97. [Google Scholar]
- 7.Browne C.J., Gulbudak H., Macdonald J.C. Differential impacts of contact tracing and lockdowns on outbreak size in COVID-19 model applied to China. J. Theoret. Biol. 2022;532 doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110919. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 8.Anderson R.M., Heesterbeek H., Klinkenberg D., Hollingsworth T.D. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Lancet. 2020;395:931–934. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 9.Davies N.G.D., Kucharski A.J., Eggo R.M., Gimma A., Edmunds W.J., Jombart T., et al. Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: A modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020;5:375–385. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30133-X. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 10.Ferretti L., Wymant C., Kendall M., Zhao L., Nurtay A., Abeler-Dorner L., et al. Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing. Science. 2020;368 doi: 10.1126/science.abb6936. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 11.Krishna M.V., Prakash J. Mathematical modelling on phase based transmissibility of coronavirus. Infect. Dis. Model. 2020;5:375–385. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.005. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 12.Rajagopal K., Hasanzadeh N., Parastesh F., Hamarash I., et al. A fractional-order model for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Nonlinear Dynam. 2020;101:711–718. doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05757-6. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 13.Chen T., Rui J., Wang Q., Zhao Z., et al. A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infect. Dis. Poverty. 2020;9(24):1–8. doi: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 14.Yang C., Wang J. A mathematical model for the novel coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan, China. Math. Biosci. Eng. 2020;17(3):2708–2724. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020148. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 15.Liu Z., Magal P., Seydi O., Webb G. Understanding unreported cases in the 2019-nCoV epidemic outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the importance of major public health interventions. SSRN Electron. J. 2020:1–12. doi: 10.3390/biology9030050. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 16.Sabbar Y., Kiouach D., Rajasekar S.P., El-Idrissi S.E.A. The influence of quadratic lévy noise on the dynamic of an SIC contagious illness model: New framework, critical comparison and an application to COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) case. Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2022;159 doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112110. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 17.Ferguson N.M., Laydon D., Nedjati-Gilani G., Imai N., Ainslie K., Baguelin M., et al. Imperial College London; London, UK: 2020. Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand: Technical Report. [Google Scholar]
- 18.Fatehi F., Bingham R.J., Dykeman E.C., Stockley P.G., Twarock R. Comparing antiviral strategies against COVID-19 via multiscale within-host modelling. R. Soc. Open Sci. 2021;8 doi: 10.1098/rsos.210082. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 19.Perelson A.S., Ke R. Mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics. Clin. Pharmacol. Ther. 2021;109(4):829–840. doi: 10.1002/cpt.2160. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 20.Hernandez-Vargas E.A., Velasco-Hernandez J.X. In-host mathematical modelling of COVID-19 in humans. Annu. Rev. Control. 2020;50:448–456. doi: 10.1016/j.arcontrol.2020.09.006. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 21.Abuin P., Anderson A., Ferramosca A., Hernandez-Vargas E.A., Gonzalez A.H. Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the host. Annu. Rev. Control. 2020;50:457–468. doi: 10.1016/j.arcontrol.2020.09.008. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 22.Ke R., Zitzmann C., Ho D.D., Ribeiro R.M., Perelson A.S. In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person’s infectiousness. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2021;118(49) doi: 10.1073/pnas.2111477118. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 23.Pinky L., Dobrovolny H.M. SARS-CoV-2 coinfections: could influenza and the common cold be beneficial? J. Med. Virol. 2020;92:2623–2630. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26098. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 24.Gonçalves A., Bertrand J., Ke R., Comets E., De Lamballerie X., Malvy D., et al. Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load. CPT: Pharmacomet. Syst. Pharmacol. 2020;9(9):509–514. doi: 10.1002/psp4.12543. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 25.Wang S., Pan Y., Wang Q., Miao H., Brown A.N., Rong L. Modeling the viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Math. Biosci. 2020;328 doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108438. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 26.Blanco-Rodríguez R., Du X., Hernández-Vargas E.A. Computational simulations to dissect the cell immune response dynamics for severe and critical cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Comput. Methods Programs Biomed. 2021;211 doi: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2021.106412. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 27.Blanco-Rodríguez R., Du X., Hernández-Vargas E.A. 2020. Untangling the cell immune response dynamic for severe and critical cases, of SARS-CoV-2 infection. bioRxiv. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 28.Nowak M.A., Bangham C.R.M. Population dynamics of immune responses to persistent viruses. Science. 1996;272:74–79. doi: 10.1126/science.272.5258.74. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 29.Li C., Xu J., Liu J., Zhou Y. The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2. Math. Biosci. Eng. 2020;17(4):2853–2861. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020159. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 30.Sadria M., Layton A.T. Modeling within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and potential treatments. Viruses. 2021;13(6):1141. doi: 10.3390/v13061141. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 31.Danchin A., Pagani-Azizi O., Turinici G., Yahiaoui G. 2020. COVID-19 adaptive humoral immunity models: non-neutralizing versus antibody-disease enhancement scenarios. medRxiv. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 32.Ghosh I. Within host dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in humans: modeling immune responses and antiviral treatments. SN Comput. Sci. 2021;2(6):482. doi: 10.1007/s42979-021-00919-8. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 33.Almoceraa A.E.S., Quiroz G., Hernandez-Vargas E.A. Stability analysis in COVID-19 within-host model with immune response. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 2021;95 doi: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2020.105584. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 34.Hattaf K., Yousfi N. Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection model with two modes of transmission and immune response. Math. Biosci. Eng. 2020;17(5):5326–5340. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020288. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 35.Ghanbari B. On fractional approaches to the dynamics of a SARS-CoV-2 infection model including singular and non-singular kernels. Results Phys. 2021;28 doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104600. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 36.Chatterjee A.N., Al Basir F. A model for SARS-CoV-2 infection with treatment. Comput. Math. Methods Med. 2020;2020 doi: 10.1155/2020/1352982. Article ID 1352982. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 37.Mondal J., Samui P., Chatterjee A.N. Dynamical demeanour of SARS-CoV-2 virus undergoing immune response mechanism in COVID-19 pandemic. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 2022 doi: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00437-5. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 38.Elaiw A.M., Hobiny A.D., Al Agha A.D. Global dynamics of SARS-CoV-2/cancer model with immune responses. Appl. Math. Comput. 2021;408 doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2021.126364. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 39.Elaiw A.M., Al Agha A.D., Azoz S.A., Ramadan E. Global analysis of within-host SARS-CoV-2/HIV coinfection model with latency. Eur. Phys. J. Plus. 2022;137(2):174. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-022-02387-2. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 40.Al Agha A.D., Elaiw A.M., Azoz S.A., Ramadan E. Stability analysis of within-host SARS-CoV-2/HIV coinfection model. Math. Methods Appl. Sci. 2022:1–20. doi: 10.1002/mma.8457. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 41.Nath B.J., Dehingia K., Mishra V.N., Chu Y.-M., Sarmah H.K. Mathematical analysis of a within-host model of SARS-CoV-2. Adv. Difference Equ. 2021;2021:113. doi: 10.1186/s13662-021-03276-1. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 42.Kirschner D., Lenhart S., Serbin S. Optimal control of the chemotherapy of HIV. J. Math. Biol. 1997;35(7):775–792. doi: 10.1007/s002850050076. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 43.Elaiw A.M., Xia X. HIV dynamics: Analysis and robust multirate MPC-based treatment schedules. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 2009;359(1):285–301. [Google Scholar]
- 44.Alrabaiah H., Safi M.A., DarAssi M.H., Al-Hdaibat B., Ullah S., Khan M.A., Shah S.A.A. Optimal control analysis of hepatitis B virus with treatment and vaccination. Results Phys. 2020;19 [Google Scholar]
- 45.Mojaver A., Kheiri H. Dynamical analysis of a class of hepatitis C virus infection models with application of optimal control. Int. J. Biomath. 2016;9(03) [Google Scholar]
- 46.Chhetri B., Bhagat V.M., Vamsi D.K.K., Ananth V.S., Prakash D.B., Mandale R., Muthusamy S., Sanjeevi C.B. Within-host mathematical modeling on crucial inflammatory mediators and drug interventions in COVID-19 identifies combination therapy to be most effective and optimal. Alex. Eng. J. 2021;60(2):2491–2512. [Google Scholar]
- 47.Chatterjee A.N., Al Basir F., Almuqrin M.A., Mondal J., Khan I. SARS-CoV-2 infection with lytic and nonlytic immune responses: a fractional order optimal control theoretical study. Results Phys. 2021;26 doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104260. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 48.Fadai N.T., Sachak-Patwa R., Byrne H.M., Maini P.K., Bafadhel M., Nicolau D.V., Jr. Infection, inflammation and intervention: mechanistic modelling of epithelial cells in COVID-19. J. R. Soc. Interface. 2021;18(175) doi: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0950. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 49.Bar-On Y.M., Flamholz A., Phillips R., Milo R. Science forum: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) by the numbers. eLife. 2020;9 doi: 10.7554/eLife.57309. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 50.Néant N., Lingas G., Le Hingrat Q., Ghosn J., Engelmann I., Lepiller Q., Gaymard A., Ferré V., Hartard C., Plantier J.-C., et al. Modeling SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and association with mortality in hospitalized patients from the French COVID cohort. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2021;118(8) doi: 10.1073/pnas.2017962118. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 51.Zhou X., Zhang L., Zheng T., Li H., Teng Z. Global stability for a delayed HIV reactivation model with latent infection and Beddington–DeAngelis incidence. Appl. Math. Lett. 2021;117:1–10. [Google Scholar]
- 52.Elaiw A.M., Alsaedi A.J., Al Agha A.D., Hobiny A.D. Global stability of a humoral immunity COVID-19 model with logistic growth and delays. Mathematics. 2022;10(11):1857. [Google Scholar]
- 53.Hale J.K., Verduyn Lunel S.M. Springer-Verlag; New York: 1993. Introduction to Functional Differential Equations. [Google Scholar]
- 54.Yang X., Chen S., Chen J. Permanence and positive periodic solution for the single-species nonautonomous delay diffusive models. Comput. Math. Appl. 1996;32(4):109–116. [Google Scholar]
- 55.LaSalle J.P. SIAM; Philadelphia: 1976. The Stability of Dynamical Systems. [Google Scholar]
- 56.Bellomo N., Painter K.J., Tao Y., Winkler M. Occurrence vs. Absence of taxis-driven instabilities in a May-Nowak model for virus infection. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 2019;79(5):1990–2010. [Google Scholar]
- 57.Elaiw A.M., Al Agha A.D., Alshaikh M.A. Global stability of a within-host SARS-CoV-2/cancer model with immunity and diffusion. Int. J. Biomath. 2021;15(2) [Google Scholar]
- 58.Pitchaimani M., Rajasekar S.P. Global analysis of stochastic SIR model with variable diffusion rates. Tamkang J. Math. 2018;49(2):155–182. [Google Scholar]
- 59.Bellomo N., Outada N., Soler J., Tao Y., Winkler M. Chemotaxis and cross diffusion models in complex environments: Models and analytic problems toward a multiscale vision. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. 2022;32(4):713–792. [Google Scholar]
- 60.Bellomo N., Burini D., Outada N. Multiscale models of Covid-19 with mutations and variants. Netw. Heterog. Media Networks. 2022;17(3):293–310. [Google Scholar]
- 61.Bellomo N., Burini D., Outada N. Pandemics of mutating virus and society: a multi-scale active particles approach. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 2022;380(2224):1–14. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0161. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 62.Rajasekar S.P., Zhu Q. Higher order stochastically perturbed SIRS epidemic model with relapse and media impact. Math. Methods Appl. Sci. 2022;45(2):843–863. [Google Scholar]
- 63.Qi K., Jiang D., Hayat T., Alsaedi A. Virus dynamic behavior of a stochastic HIV/AIDS infection model including two kinds of target cell infections and CTL immune. Math. Comput. Simulation. 2021;188:548–570. [Google Scholar]
- 64.Rajasekar S.P., Pitchaimani M., Zhu Q., Shi K. Exploring the stochastic host-pathogen tuberculosis model with adaptive immune response. Math. Probl. Eng. 2021;2021 Article ID 8879538. [Google Scholar]
- 65.Gibelli L., Elaiw A.M., Alghamdi M.A., Althiabi A.M. Heterogeneous population dynamics of active particles: Progression, mutations, and selection dynamics. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. 2017;27(4):617–640. [Google Scholar]
- 66.Rajasekar S.P., Pitchaimani M., Zhu Q. Probing a stochastic epidemic hepatitis C virus model with a chronically infected treated population. Acta Math. Sci. 2022;42(5):2087–2112. doi: 10.1007/s10473-022-0521-1. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
Associated Data
This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.
Data Availability Statement
No data was used for the research described in the article.






