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Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2023 Feb 24;616:128604. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.128604

Stability of a delayed SARS-CoV-2 reactivation model with logistic growth and adaptive immune response

AM Elaiw a,, AJ Alsaedi a,b, AD Hobiny a, S Aly c
PMCID: PMC9957504  PMID: 36909816

Abstract

This paper develops and analyzes a SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model with logistic growth of healthy epithelial cells, CTL immune and humoral (antibody) immune responses. The model is incorporated with four mixed (distributed/discrete) time delays, delay in the formation of latent infected epithelial cells, delay in the formation of active infected epithelial cells, delay in the activation of latent infected epithelial cells, and maturation delay of new SARS-CoV-2 particles. We establish that the model’s solutions are non-negative and ultimately bounded. We deduce that the model has five steady states and their existence and stability are perfectly determined by four threshold parameters. We study the global stability of the model’s steady states using Lyapunov method. The analytical results are enhanced by numerical simulations. The impact of intracellular time delays on the dynamical behavior of the SARS-CoV-2 is addressed. We noted that increasing the time delay period can suppress the viral replication and control the infection. This could be helpful to create new drugs that extend the delay time period.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, Latent infection, Adaptive immunity, Time delay, Lyapunov function, Global stability

1. Introduction

In November 2019, a dangerous type of virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) appeared, and it infects the human body and may lead to death. SARS-CoV-2 causes Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). World Health Organization (WHO) reported in the COVID-19 weekly epidemiological update of 16 January 2022 that, over 323 million confirmed cases and over 5.5 million deaths worldwide [1]. Some symptoms can appear on COVID-19 patients such as: fever, cough, fatigue, sputum production, headache, dyspnoea, diarrhea and hemoptysis [2]. The primary way that people become infected with SARS-CoV-2 is when they are exposed to respiratory fluids carrying the infectious virus. To reduce the SARS-CoV-2 transmission, preventive measures must be implemented such as hand washing, using of face masks, physical and social distancing, disinfection of surfaces and getting COVID-19 vaccine. Fortunately, WHO approved the following COVID-19 vaccines: Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Sinovac, Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinpharm (Beijing), Serum Institute of India, Novavax and Bharat Biotech [3]. Beside vaccination, scientists and researchers are working hard to create new effective drugs for COVID-19 patients.

SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus, belonging to the Coronaviridae family. Epithelial cells with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors are attacked by SARS-CoV-2 [4]. These target cells founded at the respiratory tracks including lungs, nasal and trachea/bronchial tissues [5]. The immune response plays an essential role in controlling the disease progression and clearing the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Adaptive immune response is based on Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) which kill virus-infected cells and antibodies which neutralize the viruses.

Beside biological and medical research, mathematical modeling of infection diseases were attracted the interest of several researchers. Several epidemiological mathematical models for COVID-19 were proposed to forecast disease severity and assist policy makers for inferring disease-control interventions (see e.g., [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17]).

1.1. Mathematical models of within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection

Mathematical models of within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics can help researchers to understand the replication cycle of SARS-CoV-2 and the immune system response to the viral infection. Moreover, these models enable the merits of different types of antiviral drug therapies to be assessed in individual COVID-19 patients [18]. Many scientists have been interested in modeling and analyzing SARS-CoV-2 dynamics within the host (see the review paper [19]).

  • Target cell-limited model:Hernandez-Vargas and Velasco-Hernandez [20] proposed the following target cell-limited model forSARS-CoV-2 infection:
    T˙(t)=ξV(t)T(t),I˙(t)=ξV(t)T(t)dII(t),V˙(t)=kI(t)dVV(t), (1)
    where T(t), I(t) and V(t) are the concentrations of healthy target cells, active infected cells and SARS-CoV-2 particles, at time t, respectively. Parameters dI and dV are death rate constants of infected cells and SARS-CoV-2 particles, respectively, ξ is the infection rate constant. Abuin et al. [21] studied the mathematical analysis of model (1). The effect of the antiviral Pharmacodynamic therapy which reduce the production of infectious SARS-CoV-2 particles was studied using control theory.
  • Target cell-limited model with latent infected cells:Model (1) was extended in [20] by including two classes of infected cells, latent infected cells and active infected cells as:
    T˙(t)=ξV(t)T(t),L˙(t)=ξV(t)T(t)αL(t),I˙(t)=αL(t)dII(t),V˙(t)=kI(t)dVV(t), (2)
    where L(t) is the concentration of latent infected cells. Parameter α represents the activation rate constant of latent infected cells. Ke et al. [22] developed some mathematical models for within-host dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and fitted them to real data. They supported a quantitative framework for concluding the influence of vaccines and therapeutics on the infectiousness of COVID-19 patients and for assessing rapid testing strategies. Based on model (2), Pinky and Dobrovolny developed a mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses coinfection within a host [23]. It was reported that SARS-CoV-2 progression can be suppressed by other viruses when the infections occur at the same time. Gonçalves et al. [24] modified model (2) by including the absorption effect. The last equation of model (2) was modified as: V˙(t)=kI(t)dVV(t)ξV(t)T(t). The model was fitted using real data. The results showed that, less drug efficacy is required to reduce the peak viral load when the treatment is starting before the symptom onset. Wang et al. [25] introduced a within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model with two types of target cells (pneumocytes and lymphocytes). They fitted their model, model (1) and model (2) with real data of COVID-19 patients and non-human primates. The results showed that model with two target cells significantly improves the fit. The effect of antiviral drugs or anti-inflammatory treatments combined with interferon on the viral load and recovery time were studied.
  • Model with effector cells: The following model describes the interaction between effector cells and SARS-CoV-2 [20]:
    V˙(t)=bV(t)1V(t)KdVV(t)cV(t)E(t),E˙(t)=s+hE(t)Vm(t)Vm(t)+amdEE(t), (3)
    where b is viral replication rate, K is the maximum carrying capacity of the viruses, E is the concentration of effector cells and c is killing rate constant of infected cells by effector cells. The parameter s=dEE(0) represents the effector cell homeostasis, h denotes the proliferation rate of effector cells and dE is death rate constant of the effector cells, a is a saturation constant, and m denotes the width of the sigmoidal function. Model (3) was used in many works (see e.g. [26], [27]). In [26], differential evolution algorithm was applied to fit model (3) in case of m=2 with experimental data. Blanco-Rodriguez et al. [27] elucidated the key parameters that define the course of the COVID-19 deviating from severe to critical case. Hernandez-Vargas and Velasco-Hernandez [20] used Akaike information criterion to compare between different models. The models were fitted with real data from 9 patients with COVID-19. It was shown that model (3) was better fitting than logarithmic decay and exponential growth models, model (1) and model (2).
  • Model with constant regeneration of target cells:Following the basic within-host viral dynamics model presented by Nowak and Bangham [28], Li et al. [29] formulated the following within host SARS-CoV-2 model:
    T˙(t)=dT(T(0)T(t))ξV(t)T(t),I˙(t)=ξV(t)T(t)dII(t),V˙(t)=kI(t)dVV(t), (4)
    where dTT(0) is the regeneration rate constant of the healthy epithelial cells and T(0) is the concentration of healthy epithelial cells without virus. The model’s parameters were estimated by using Chest radiograph score data in [29]. Sadria and Layton [30] formulated a within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection model with constant regeneration of target cells to simulate the effect of three drug therapies, Remdesivir, an alternative (hypothetical) therapy and transfusion therapy convalescent plasma. It was suggested that therapies are more effective when they applied early, one or two days post symptoms onset [30]. Danchin et al. [31] extended model (4) by including the effect of antibodies. Ghosh [32] formulated a mathematical model that describes the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics with constant regeneration of target cells. Both innate and adaptive immune responses were included. The model was fitted with real data and the effect of different antiviral drugs was addressed. Du and Yuan [5] proposed a within-host model of SARS-CoV-2 infection with constant regeneration of target cells. They studied the influence of the interaction between adaptive and innate immune responses on the peak of viral load in COVID-19 patients. They showed that, temporarily suppress the adaptive immune response to avoid interfering with the innate immune response, it may allow the innate immunity to get rid of the virus more efficiently.

Stability of analysis of within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics models is one of the powerful tools that can provide researchers with better understanding about the dynamics of the virus and how the immune system control and clear the virus. Stability analysis of model (3) was studied by Almocera et al. [33]. It was mentioned that the SARS-CoV-2 may replicate fast enough to overcome the response of the effector cells and cause infection. Hattaf and Yousfi [34] developed a SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model with CTL immune response and cell-to-cell infection. The global stability of the three steady states of the model was studied. Ghanbari [35] extended the model presented in [34] by using fractional derivatives by. Chatterjee and Al Basir [36] studied a SARS-CoV-2 infection model with treatment and CTL immune response. Mondal et al. [37] developed and analyzed a five-dimensional within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model which includes both CTL and antibody immune responses. Elaiw et al. [38] developed and proved the global stability of a SARS-CoV-2/cancer coinfection model with two immune responses: cancer-specific CTL immune response and SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody. Mathematical modeling and analysis of SARS-CoV-2/HIV coinfection dynamics were studied in [39] and [40]. Nath et al. [41] studied the mathematical analysis of model (4). They proved both local and global stability of the two steady states of the model.

Optimal control theory was applied to determine optimal treatment strategies for infected patients with different viruses such as HIV [42], [43], HBV [44], HCV [45]. On the basis of the basic within-host viral dynamics model presented by Nowak and Bangham [28], Chhetri et al. [46] formulated and analyzed within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model under the effect of immunomodulating and antiviral drug therapies. Optimal drug interventions were determined. It was suggested that the combination of immunomodulating and antiviral drug therapies is most effective. In [47], fractional differential equations were used in formulating within-host SARS-CoV-2 model with non-lytic and lytic immune responses. Two types of antiviral drugs were included as control inputs, one for blocking the infection and the other for inhibiting the viral production. Optimal antiviral drugs were determined by solving the fractional optimal control problem.

In most of the above mentioned works, the proliferation of the healthy target cells was not considered. Fatehi et al. [18] and Fadai et al. [48] developed SARS-CoV-2 dynamics models by assuming that the healthy epithelial cells follow logistic growth in the absence of SARS-CoV-2. However, mathematical analysis of these models was not studied.

It was observed experimentally that there exist a time lag between infection of a target cell and the release of new virions [49]. Therefore, several SARS-CoV-2 dynamics models were developed using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) by splitting the infected cells into two compartments, latent infected cells and active (productive) infected cells (see e.g. [18], [20], [22], [23], [25], [30], [50]). Latent infected cells contain viruses but do not produce them until they are activated. These model assumed that one infected, the cell immediately becomes a latent infected cell. Further, these models neglected the time for the latent infected cells to be activated [51]. Furthermore, the maturation time of the new viruses was not considered. To incorporate these time lags we need to formulate the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics using delay differential equations (DDEs). DDEs models can characterize the effect time delay on the dynamical behavior of the virus.

In a very recent work [52], we have studied the global stability of a delayed SARS-CoV-2 infection model with antibody immune response. However, the CTL immune response has not considered. Therefore, our contribution in the present paper is to develop and analyze a within-host SARS-CoV-2 infection model with both CTL and antibody immune responses. The model includes: (i) both latent and active infected epithelial cells, (ii) logistic growth term for the healthy epithelial cells, and (iii) four time delays, the times form the SARS-CoV-2 particles contact the healthy epithelial cells to become latent/active infected cells, the reactivation time of latent infected cells, and the maturation time of new virions. The basic and global properties of the model are studied. To support the theoretical results we performed some numerical simulations. The effect of time delay on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is addressed.

Overall, our proposed model and its analysis can be useful for better understanding the within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics under the effect of both CTL and antibody immune responses. In addition, our study can be helpful to develop coinfection dynamics model with more aggressive variants of SARS-CoV-2 like Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda and Omicron.

2. Model development

This section gives a brief description of the model under consideration. The model takes the form

T˙(t)=λdTT(t)+rT(t)1T(t)TmaxξT(t)V(t), (5)
L˙(t)=ηξ0τ1f(ψ)en1ψV(tψ)T(tψ)dψαL(t)dLL(t), (6)
I˙(t)=(1η)ξ0τ2g(ψ)en2ψV(tψ)T(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dII(t)ωI(t)C(t), (7)
V˙(t)=ken4τ4I(tτ4)dVV(t)uV(t)A(t), (8)
A˙(t)=qV(t)A(t)dAA(t), (9)
C˙(t)=σI(t)C(t)dCC(t), (10)

where T(t), L(t), I(t), V(t),A(t) and C(t) represent the concentrations of healthy epithelial cells, latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, antibodies and CTLs at time t, respectively. The healthy epithelial cells are regenerated with constant λ and are proliferated with logistic growth rate rT1TTmax, where r is the rate of growth and Tmax is the maximum capacity of healthy epithelial cells in the human body. Healthy epithelial cells are infected by SARS-CoV-2 at rate ξVT. Parameter η(0,1) is the part of the healthy epithelial cells that enters the latent state, while α is the activation rate constant of latent infected cells. kI is the rate at which active infected cells produces SARS-CoV-2 particles. The infected cells are killed by CTLs at rate ωCI. uAV is the neutralization rate of SARS-CoV-2 due to antibody immunity. The terms qAV and σCI refer to the proliferation rate of antibodies and CTLs, respectively. The parameters dT, dL, dI, dV, dA and dC are the death rate constants of healthy epithelial cells, latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, antibodies and CTLs, respectively. The factor f(ψ)en1ψ represents the probability that healthy epithelial cells touched by SARS-CoV-2 particles at time tψ survived ψ time units and become latent infected cells at time t. The factor g(ψ)en2ψ is the probability that healthy epithelial cells touched by SARS-CoV-2 particles at time tψ survived ψ time units and become active cells infected at time t. Here, ψ is random taken from probability distribution functions f(ψ) and g(ψ) over the intervals [0,τ1] and [0,τ2], respectively. τ1 and τ2 are the upper limits of the delay periods. τ3 is the period of time during which latent infected cells are activated to produce active infected cells. τ4 is the time it takes from the newly released viruses to be mature and then infectious. Factors en3τ3 and en4τ4 represent the survival rates of latent infected cells and viruses during their delay periods [tτ3,t] and [tτ4,t], respectively. The functions f(ψ):0,τ10, and g(ψ):0,τ20, are the distribution functions which satisfy the following conditions:

(i)f(ψ)>0,g(ψ)>0,
(ii)0τ1f(ψ)dψ=1,0τ2g(ψ)dψ=1,
(iii)0τ1f(ψ)en1ψdψ<,0τ2g(ψ)en2ψdψ<,n1,n2>0.

Let

F=0τ1f(ψ)en1ψdψandG=0τ2g(ψ)en2ψdψ.

Hence 0<F,G1.

The initial conditions of system (5)(10) are:

T(ϰ)=φ1(ϰ),L(ϰ)=φ2(ϰ),I(ϰ)=φ3(ϰ),V(ϰ)=φ4(ϰ),A(ϰ)=φ5(ϰ),C(ϰ)=φ6(ϰ),φi(ϰ)0,ϰ[κ,0],i=1,2,,6, (11)

where κ=max{τ1,τ2,τ3,τ4}, φiC([κ,0],R0),i=1,2,,6, and C is the Banach space of continuous functions mapping the interval [κ,0] to R0 with

φi=supκϰ0|φi(ϰ)|forφiC.

By the fundamental theory of functional differential equations [53], system (5)(10) with initial conditions (11) has a unique solution.

Remark 1

When the CTL immune response is not considered, then model (5)(10) will lead to the model presented in [52]. Further, if we neglect the logistic growth rate term, time delays, CTL immune response and antibody immune response, then system (5)(10) will lead to system (4), where λ=dT(T(0)).

3. Basic properties

This section proves the basic properties of system (5)(9) including the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions. Moreover, it lists all possible steady states and their existence conditions.

For the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions for the system (5)(10), we have the following theorem:

Theorem 1

LetT(t),L(t),I(t),V(t),A(t),C(t)be arbitrary solution of system(5)(10)with initial conditions (11) . Then, T(t),L(t),I(t),V(t),A(t),C(t) are non-negative on [0,+) and ultimately bounded.

Proof

Let us write system (5)(10) in the matrix form Θ˙(t)=HΘ(t), where Θ=(T,L,I,V,A,C), H=(H1,H2,H3,H4, H5,H6)T, and

HΘ(t)=H1Θ(t)H2Θ(t)H3Θ(t)H4Θ(t)H5Θ(t)H6Θ(t)=λdTT(t)+rT(t)1T(t)TmaxξV(t)T(t)ηξ0τ1f(ψ)en1ψV(tψ)T(tψ)dψαL(t)dLL(t)(1η)ξ0τ2g(ψ)en2ψV(tψ)T(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dII(t)ωI(t)C(t)ken4τ4I(tτ4)dVV(t)uV(t)A(t)qV(t)A(t)dAA(t)σI(t)C(t)dCC(t).

We see that the function H satisfies the following condition:

HiΘ(t)Θi=0,Θ(t)R060,i=1,2,,6.

Using Lemma 2 in [54], any solution of system (5)(10) with the initial states (11) is such that Θ(t)R06 for all t0. Hence, R06 is positively invariant for the system (5)(10).

Next, we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions. From Eq. (5), we have

T˙(t)=λdTT(t)+rT(t)1T(t)TmaxξV(t)T(t)λdTT(t)+rT(t)1T(t)Tmax. (12)

From the inequality (12) and the comparison principle, we obtain lim suptT(t)T0, where T0 is the positive root of λdTT+rT1TTmax=0 and is given by:

T0=Tmax2rrdT+(rdT)2+4rλTmax. (13)

Now, we define

W1(t)=0τ1f(ψ)en1ψT(tψ)dψ+1ηL(t).

Then, we get

W˙1(t)=0τ1f(ψ)en1ψT˙(tψ)dψ+1ηL˙(t)=0τ1f(ψ)en1ψλdTT(tψ)+rT(tψ)1T(tψ)TmaxξV(tψ)T(tψ)dψ+ξ0τ1f(ψ)en1ψV(tψ)T(tψ)dψαηL(t)dLηL(t)=0τ1f(ψ)en1ψrTmaxT2(tψ)+rT(tψ)+λdψdT0τ1f(ψ)en1ψT(tψ)dψα+dLηL(t).

Let us define Γ(T)=rTmaxT2+rT+λ. Then to find the maximum value of Γ(T) we find

Γ(T)=2rTmaxT+r=0T=Tmax2

and

Γ(T)=2rTmax<0.

Then

ΓTmax2=rTmaxTmax22+rTmax2+λ=rTmax4+λ.

Let N1=rTmax+4λ4>0 and q1=min{dT,α+dL}, then

W˙1(t)FN1q1W1(t)N1q1W1(t).

Therefore, lim suptW1(t)N1q1. Since T(t)0 and L(t)0, then lim suptL(t)ηN1q1=p1. To prove the ultimate boundedness of I(t) and C(t), we define

W2(t)=0τ2g(ψ)en2ψT(tψ)dψ+11ηI(t)+ω(1η)σC(t).

Then, we obtain

W˙2(t)=0τ2g(ψ)en2ψT˙(tψ)dψ+11ηI˙(t)+ω(1η)σC˙(t)=0τ2g(ψ)en2ψλdTT(tψ)+rT(tψ)1T(tψ)TmaxξV(tψ)T(tψ)dψ+ξ0τ2g(ψ)en2ψV(tψ)T(tψ)dψdI1ηI(t)+αen3τ31ηL(tτ3)ω1ηC(t)I(t)+ω1ηI(t)C(t)ωdC(1η)σC(t)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψrTmaxT2(tψ)+rT(tψ)+λdψ+αen3τ31ηp1dT0τ2g(ψ)en2ψT(tψ)dψdI1ηI(t)ωdC(1η)σC(t)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψrTmax+4λ4dψ+αen3τ31ηp1dT0τ2g(ψ)en2ψT(tψ)dψdI1ηI(t)ωdC(1η)σC(t)rTmax+4λ4+α1ηp1dT0τ2g(ψ)en2ψT(tψ)dψdI1ηI(t)ωdC(1η)σC(t).

Let N2=rTmax+4λ4+α1ηp1>0 and q2=min{dT,dI,dC}, then

W˙2(t)N2q2W2(t).

This implies that lim suptW2(t)N2q2. Since I(t)0 and C(t)0, then lim suptI(t)(1η)N2q2=p2 and lim suptC(t)(1η)σN2ωq2=p3. To prove the ultimate boundedness of V(t) and A(t), we consider

W3(t)=V(t)+uqA(t).

This gives

W˙3(t)=ken4τ4I(tτ4)dVV(t)uAV(t)(t)+uV(t)A(t)udAqA(t)=ken4τ4I(tτ4)dVV(t)udAqA(t)ken4τ4I(tτ4)q3[V(t)+uqA(t)]kp2q3W3(t),

where q3=min{dV,dA}. Hence, lim suptW3(t)kp2q3=p4. Since V(t)0 and A(t)0, then lim suptV(t)p4, and lim suptA(t)qup4. The above analysis proves that T(t),L(t),I(t),V(t),A(t) and C(t) are ultimately bounded.

3.1. Steady states

This subsection computes all steady states of system (5)(10) and the threshold parameters that guarantee the existence of these steady states. For system (5)(10) we define the basic reproduction number R0 as [51]:

R0=kξen4τ4T0dIdVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψdψ+(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψdψ=kξen4τ4T0dIdVαηen3τ3α+dLF+(1η)G.

For convenience, let ρ=αηen3τ3α+dLF+(1η)G. Then, R0 can be rewritten as:

R0=kξen4τ4T0dIdVρ.

Let SS=(T,L,I,V,A,C) be any steady state of system (5)(10) satisfying the following system of equations:

0=λdTT+rT1TTmaxξTV, (14)
0=ηFξTV(α+dL)L, (15)
0=(1η)GξTV+αen3τ3LdIIωCI, (16)
0=ken4τ4IdVVuAV, (17)
0=qAVdAA, (18)
0=σCIdCC. (19)

By solving system (14)(19), we get five steady states:

  • (i)

    Healthy steady state SS0=(T0,0,0,0,0,0), where T0 is given by Eq. (13).

  • (ii)
    Infected steady state with inactive immune response SS1=(T1,L1,I1,V1,0,0), where
    T1=dIdVen4τ4kξρ=T0R0,
    L1=ηα+dLFξT1V1,
    I1=dVen4τ4kV1,
    V1=λken4τ4ρdIdV+rξdTξ+rdIdVen4τ4kξ2Tmaxρ.
    Assume that dTr+rT1Tmax>0, then we get
    dTr+rTmaxdIdVen4τ4kξρ>0. (20)
    We note that
    R0>1Tmax2rrdT+(rdT)2+4rλTmax>dIdVen4τ4kξρ(rdT)2+4rλTmax>2rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρ(rdT).
    From inequality (20) we have 2rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρ(rdT)>0. Then
    R0>14rλTmax>4r2dIdVe2n4τ4k2ξ2Tmax2ρ24rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρ(rdT)rλ>r2dIdVe2n4τ4k2ξ2Tmaxρ2r2dIdVen4τ4kξρ+rdTdIdVen4τ4kξρλken4τ4ρdIdV+rξdTξ+rdIdVen4τ4kξ2Tmaxρ>0V1>0.
    Thus, SS1 exists when R0>1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0. At this steady state the virus exists while the immune response is inhibited.
  • (iii)
    Infected steady state with only active antibody immunity SS2=(T2,L2,I2,V2,A2,0), where
    T2=Tmax2rrdTdAξq+rdTdAξq2+4rλTmax,
    L2=dAηξFq(α+dL)Tmax2rrdTdAξq+rdTdAξq2+4rλTmax=dAηξFT2q(α+dL),
    I2=dAξqdITmax2rrdTdAξq+rdTdAξq2+4rλTmaxρ=dAξT2qdIρ,
    V2=dAq,
    A2=dVukξen4τ4dIdVTmax2rrdTdAξq+rdTdAξq2+4rλTmaxρ1=dVukξen4τ4T2dIdVρ1.
    We note that SS2 exists when kξen4τ4T2dIdVρ>1. We define the antibody immunity activation number R1A as:
    R1A=kξen4τ4T2dIdVρ.
    which determines when the antibody immunity is activated. Thus, A2=dVuR1A1. We note that A2>0 when R1A>1. Thus, SS2 exists when R1A>1.
  • (iv)
    Infected steady state with only active CTL immunity SS3=(T3,L3,I3,V3,0,C3), where
    T3=Tmax2rrdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ+rdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ2+4rλTmax,
    L3=dCηkξFen4τ4dVσ(α+dL)Tmax2rrdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ+rdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ2+4rλTmax,=dCηkσξFen4τ4T3dVσ(α+dL),
    I3=dCσ,
    V3=dCken4τ4dVσ,
    C3=dIωkξen4τ4T3dIdVαηen3τ3α+dLF+(1η)G1=dIωkξen4τ4T3ρdIdV1.
    We note that C3>0 when kξen4τ4T3ρdIdV>1. Then, we define the CTL immunity activation number R1C as:
    R1C=kξen4τ4T3ρdIdV.

Therefore, SS3 exists when R1C>1.

  • 1.
    Infected steady state with both active antibody and CTL immune responses SS4=(T4,L4,I4,V4,A4,C4), where
    T4=Tmax2rrdTdAξq+rdTdAξq2+4rλTmax=T2,
    L4=dAηξFq(α+dL)Tmax2rrdTdAξq+rdTdAξq2+4rλTmax=dAηξFT4q(α+dL),
    I4=dCσ=I3,
    V4=dAq=V2,
    A4=dCkqen4τ4dAσudVu=dVudCkqen4τ4dVdAσ1,
    C4=σdCωdAξT4qαηen3τ3α+dLF+(1η)GdIdCσ=dIωdAσξT4dIdCqρ1.
    We see that A4 and C4 exist when dCkqen4τ4dVdAσ>1 and dAσξT4dIdCqρ>1. Now, we define
    R2C=dAσξT4dIdCqρ.
    Hence A4 and C4 can be rewritten as:
    A4=dVuR1AR2C1,C4=dIωR2C1.
    Therefore, SS4 exists when R1A>R2C and R2C>1. Here, R2C refers to the competed CTL immunity number.

Lemma 1

System (5) (10) has four threshold parameters R0>0 , R1A>0 , R1C>0 and R2C>0 , such that:

  • (i)

    if R01 , then there exists only one steady state SS0 ;

  • (ii)

    if R1A1<R0 , R1C1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0 , then there exist two steady states SS0 and SS1 ;

  • (iii)

    if R1A>1 and R2C1 , then there exist only three steady states SS0 , SS1 and SS2 ;

  • (iv)

    if R1C>1 and R1AR2C , then there exist only three steady states SS0 , SS1 and SS3 ;

  • (v)

    if R1A>R2C>1 , then there exist five steady states SS0 , SS1 , SS2 , SS3 and SS4 .

Remark 2

We note that our proposed model has five steady states, while the model presented in [52] (where the CTL immune response is not considered) has three steady states. Therefore, our proposed model can be more suitable to describe the reaction of the immune system against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

4. Global properties

In this section, the global asymptotic stability of the five steady states SSi, i=0,1,2,3,4 will be established by using Lyapunov approach and applying LaSalle’s invariance principle. Denote (T,L,I,V,A,C)=T(t),L(t),I(t),V(t),A(t),C(t).

Theorem 2

Suppose that The steady state SS0 is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) when R01 .

Proof

Let

H(x)=x1lnx,

and define a Lyapunov function V0(T,L,I,V,A,C) as:

V0=ρT0HTT0+αen3τ3α+dLL+I+dIen4τ4kV+dIuen4τ4kqA+ωσC+U0(t),

where and

U0(t)=αηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψtψtξT(ϕ)V(ϕ)dϕdψ+(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψtψtξT(ϕ)V(ϕ)dϕdψ+αen3τ3tτ3tL(ϕ)dϕ+dItτ4tI(ϕ)dϕ.

Clearly, V0(T,L,I,V,A,C)>0 for all T,L,I,V,A,C>0, and V0(T0,0,0,0,0,0)=0. The derivative of U0(t) is computed as:

dU0(t)dt=αηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξTVdψαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξTVdψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3Lαen3τ3L(tτ3)+dIIdII(tτ4)=ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3Lαen3τ3L(tτ3)+dIIdII(tτ4).

Hence, dV0(t)dt along the solutions of system (5)(10) is given by:

dV0dt=ρ1T0TT˙+αen3τ3α+dLL˙+I˙+dIen4τ4kV˙+dIuen4τ4kqA˙+ωσC˙+dU0(t)dt.

By using system (5)(10), we obtain

dV0dt=ρ1T0TλdTT+rT1TTmaxξTV+αen3τ3α+dLη0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(α+dL)L+(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dIIωCI+dIen4τ4kken4τ4I(tτ4)dVVuAV+dIuen4τ4kqqAVdAA+ωσσCIdCC+ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3Lαen3τ3L(tτ3)+dIIdII(tτ4).

By using the steady state conditions at SS0, we obtain λ=dTT0rT01T0Tmax, then

λdTT+rT1TTmax=(T0T)dTr+rT0Tmax+rTTmax.

Therefore, we deduce that

dV0dt=ρdTr+rT0Tmax+rTTmax(TT0)2T+ρξT0dIdVen4τ4kVdIdAuen4τ4kqAdCωσCρdTr+rT0Tmax(TT0)2T+ρξT0dIdVen4τ4kVdIdAuen4τ4kqAdCωσC=ρdTr+rT0Tmax(TT0)2T+dIdVen4τ4kρξT0ken4τ4dIdV1VdIdAuen4τ4kqAdCωσC=ρdTr+rT0Tmax(TT0)2T+dIdVen4τ4kR01VdIdAuen4τ4kqAdCωσC.

At the steady state, we have λ=dTT0rT01T0Tmax which implies that dTr+rT0Tmax>0. It follows that dV0dt0 when R01. Also, dV0dt=0 when T=T0, A=0 and C=0 and R01V=0. The solutions of system (5)(10) converge to M0 the largest invariant subset of M0={(T,L,I,V,A,C)|dV0dt=0}. For any elements in M0we have T=T0 and A=C=0 and

R01V=0. (21)

Let us consider two cases:

(i) R0<1, then Eq. (21) yields V=0. Since M0is invariant then V˙=0 and from Eq. (8) we get

0=V˙=ken4τ4II(t)=0, for all t (22)

and hence I˙=0. From Eq. (7) we obtain

0=I˙=αen3τ3LL(t)=0, for all t. (23)

It follows that M0={SS0}.

(ii) R0=1, we have T=T0, then T˙=0. From Eq. (5) we obtain

0=T˙(t)=λdTT0+rT01T0TmaxξT0V(t)V(t)=0, for all t.

Eqs. (22)(23) give L(t)=I(t)=0, for all tand hence M0={SS0}.

By LaSalle’s invariance principle (LIP) [55], we conclude that SS0 is GAS when R01.

Theorem 3

The steady state SS1 is GAS when R1A1<R0 , R1C1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0 .

Proof

Define a function V1(T,L,I,V,A,C) as:

V1=ρT1HTT1+αen3τ3α+dLL1HLL1+I1HII1+dIen4τ4kV1HVV1+dIuen4τ4kqA+ωσC+U1(t),

where

U1(t)=αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T1V1dϕdψ+(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T1V1dϕdψ+αen3τ3L1tτ3tHL(ϕ)L1dϕ+dII1tτ4tHI(ϕ)I1dϕ.

Clearly, V1(T,L,I,V,A,C)>0 for all T,L,I,V,A,C>0, and V1(T1,L1,I1,V1,0,0)=0. Then, dU1(t)dt is given by:

dU1(t)dt=ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L1lnL(tτ3)L+dIII(tτ4)+I1lnI(tτ4)I.

Hence, dV1(t)dt is given by:

dV1dt=ρ1T1TT˙+αen3τ3α+dL1L1LL˙+1I1II˙+dIen4τ4k1V1VV˙+dIuen4τ4kqA˙+ωσC˙+dU1(t)dt.

By using the derivatives in Eqs. (5)(10), we get

dV1dt=ρ1T1TλdTT+rT1TTmaxξTV+αen3τ3α+dL1L1Lη0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(α+dL)L+1I1I(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dIIωCI+dIen4τ4k1V1Vken4τ4I(tτ4)dVVuAV+dIuen4τ4kqqAVdAA+ωσσCIdCC+ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L1lnL(tτ3)L+dIII(tτ4)+I1lnI(tτ4)I.

Then,

dV1dt=ρ1T1TλdTT+rT1TTmax+ρξT1Vαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψL1ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Ldψ+αen3τ3L1(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψI1ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Idψαen3τ3I1L(tτ3)I+dII1+ωI1CdIdVen4τ4kVdIV1I(tτ4)V+dIdVen4τ4kV1+dIuen4τ4kV1AdIdAuen4τ4kqAdCωσC+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3L1lnL(tτ3)L+dII1lnI(tτ4)I.

By using the steady state conditions at SS1:

λ=dTT1rT11T1Tmax+ξT1V1,
αen3τ3L1=αηen3τ3α+dLFξT1V1,
dII1=ρξT1V1=dIdVen4τ4kV1,

we get,

λdTT+rT1TTmax=(T1T)dTr+rT1Tmax+rTTmax+ξT1V1.

Further, we obtain

dV1dtρdTr+rT1Tmax(TT1)2T+ρξT1V1ρξT1V1T1T+ρξT1dIdVen4τ4kVαηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψL1T(tψ)V(tψ)LT1V1dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1F(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψI1T(tψ)V(tψ)IT1V1dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FI1L(tτ3)IL1+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1F+(1η)ξT1V1GρξT1V1V1I(tτ4)VI1+ρξT1V1+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FlnL(tτ3)L+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FlnI(tτ4)I+(1η)ξT1V1GlnI(tτ4)I+dIuen4τ4kV1dAqA+ωI1dCσC.

We have ρξT1dIdVen4τ4k=0.  Now, using the following equalities:

lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnL(tτ3)L=lnT1T+lnL(tτ3)V1L1V+lnL1T(tψ)V(tψ)LT1V1,
lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnI(tτ4)I=lnT1T+lnI(tτ4)V1I1V+lnI1T(tψ)V(tψ)IT1V1,

we get

dV1dtρdTr+rT1Tmax(TT1)2T+ρξT1V1ρξT1V1T1Tαηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψL1T(tψ)V(tψ)LT1V1dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1F(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψI1T(tψ)V(tψ)IT1V1dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FI1L(tτ3)IL1+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1F+(1η)ξT1V1GρξT1V1V1I(tτ4)VI1+ρξT1V1+ρξT1V1lnT1T+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnL1T(tψ)V(tψ)LT1V1dψ+(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnI1T(tψ)V(tψ)IT1V1dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FlnL(tτ3)V1L1V+(1η)ξT1V1GlnI(tτ4)V1I1V+αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FlnI(tτ4)I+dIuen4τ4kV1dAqA+ωI1dCσC. (24)

By using the equality:

lnL(tτ3)V1L1V+lnI(tτ4)I=lnI1L(tτ3)IL1+lnV1I(tτ4)VI1,

and rearranging the R.H.S. of (24), we get

dV1dtρdTr+rT1Tmax(TT1)2TρξT1V1T1T1lnT1TρξT1V1V1I(tτ4)VI11lnV1I(tτ4)VI1αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψL1T(tψ)V(tψ)LT1V11lnL1T(tψ)V(tψ)LT1V1dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FI1L(tτ3)IL11lnI1L(tτ3)IL1(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψI1T(tψ)V(tψ)IT1V11lnI1T(tψ)V(tψ)IT1V1dψ+dIuen4τ4kV1dAqA+ωI1dCσC=ρdTr+rT1Tmax(TT1)2TξT1V1HT1TρξT1V1HV1I(tτ4)VI1αηen3τ3α+dLξT1V10τ1f(ψ)en1ψHL1T(tψ)V(tψ)LT1V1dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT1V1FHI1L(tτ3)IL1(1η)ξT1V10τ2g(ψ)en2ψHI1T(tψ)V(tψ)IT1V1dψ+dIuen4τ4kV1dAqA+ωI1dCσC.

Since dTr+rT1Tmax>0, then we get

dTr+rT1Tmax=dTr+rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρ>0dTr+dAξq+2rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρ>02rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρrdTdAξq>0.

We obtain

R1A1Tmax2rrdTdAξq+rdTdAξq2+4rλTmaxdIdVen4τ4kξρrdTdAξq2+4rλTmax2rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρrdTdAξq4rλTmax4r2dI2dV2e2n4τ4k2ξ2Tmax2ρ24rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρrdTdAξqrλr2dI2dV2e2n4τ4k2ξ2Tmaxρ2r2dIdVen4τ4kξρ+rdTdIdVen4τ4kξρ+rdIdVdAen4τ4kqρλken4τ4ρdIdV+rξdTξ+rdIdVen4τ4kξ2TmaxρdAqV1dAq.

Also, since dTr+rT1Tmax>0, then we get

dTr+rT1Tmax=dTr+rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρ>0dTr+dCkξen4τ4dVσ+2rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρ>02rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρrdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ>0.

We obtain

R1C1Tmax2rrdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ+rdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ2+4rλTmaxdIdVen4τ4kξρrdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ2+4rλTmax2rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρrdTdCkξen4τ4dVσ4rλTmax4r2dI2dV2e2n4τ4k2ξ2Tmax2ρ24rdIdVen4τ4kξTmaxρrdTdCkξen4τ4dVσrλr2dI2dV2e2n4τ4k2ξ2Tmaxρ2r2dIdVen4τ4kξρ+rdTdIdVen4τ4kξρ+rdIdCσρdVen4τ4kλkren4τ4dV+r2dIξρrdTdIξρ+r2dI2dVen4τ4kξ2TmaxρrdIdCσρdVen4τ4kλken4τ4ρdIdV+rξdTξ+rdIdVen4τ4kξ2TmaxρdCσI1dCσ.

Thus, dV1dt0 when R1A1, R1C1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0. Also, dV1dt=0 when T=T1, L=L1, I=I1, V=V1, A=0 and C=0. Thus, the largest invariant subset of M1=(T,L,I,V,A,C)|dV1dt=0 is M1={SS1}. Using LIP we get that SS1 is GAS when R1A1<R0, R1C1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0.

Theorem 4

The steady state SS2 is GAS when R1A>1 , R2C1 and dTr+rT2Tmax>0 .

Proof

Define a function V2(T,L,I,V,A,C) as:

V2=ρT2HTT2+αen3τ3α+dLL2HLL2+I2HII2+dIen4τ4kV2HVV2+dIuen4τ4kqA2HAA2+ωσC+U2(t),

where

U2(t)=αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T2V2dϕdψ+(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T2V2dϕdψ+αen3τ3L2tτ3tHL(ϕ)L2dϕ+dII2tτ4tHI(ϕ)I2dϕ.

Clearly, V2(T,L,I,V,A,C)>0 for all T,L,I,V,A,C>0, and V2(T2,L2,I2,V2,A2,0)=0. We have

dU2(t)dt=ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L2lnL(tτ3)L+dIII(tτ4)+I2lnI(tτ4)I.

Hence,

dV2dt=ρ1T2TT˙+αen3τ3α+dL1L2LL˙+1I2II˙+dIen4τ4k1V2VV˙+dIuen4τ4kq1A2AA˙+ωσC˙+dU2(t)dt=ρ1T2TλdTT+rT1TTmaxξTV+αen3τ3α+dL1L2Lη0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(α+dL)L+1I2I(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dIIωCI+dIen4τ4k1V2Vken4τ4I(tτ4)dVVuAV+dIuen4τ4kq1A2AqAVdAA+ωσσCIdCC+ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L2lnL(tτ3)L+dIII(tτ4)+I2lnI(tτ4)I. (25)

Simplifying Eq. (25), we get

dV2dt=ρ1T2TλdTT+rT1TTmax+ρξT2Vαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψL2ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Ldψ+αen3τ3L2(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψI2ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Idψαen3τ3I2L(tτ3)I+dII2+ωI2CdIdVen4τ4kVdIV2I(tτ4)V+dIdVen4τ4kV2+dIuen4τ4kV2AdIdAuen4τ4kqAdIuen4τ4kA2V+dIdAuen4τ4kqA2dCωσC+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ2f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3L2lnL(tτ3)L+dII2lnI(tτ4)I. (26)

At the steady state SS2 we have:

λ=dTT2rT21T2Tmax+ξT2V2,
αen3τ3L2=αηen3τ3α+dLFξT2V2,
dII2=ρξT2V2=dIdVen4τ4kV2+dIuen4τ4kA2V2,
V2=dAq,

then we get,

λdTT+rT1TTmax=(T2T)dTr+rT2Tmax+rTTmax+ξT2V2.

By using the above conditions, the derivative in (26) is transformed into

dV2dtρdTr+rT2Tmax(TT2)2T+ρξT2V2ρξT2V2T2T+ρξT2dIdVen4τ4kdIuen4τ4kA2Vαηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψL2T(tψ)V(tψ)LT2V2dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2F(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψI2T(tψ)V(tψ)IT2V2dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FI2L(tτ3)IL2+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2F+(1η)ξT2V2GρξT2V2V2I(tτ4)VI2+ρξT2V2+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FlnL(tτ3)L+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FlnI(tτ4)I+(1η)ξT2V2GlnI(tτ4)I+ωI2dCσC.

The conditions of SS2 imply that

ρξT2dIdVen4τ4kdIuen4τ4kA2=0.

Now, using the following equalities:

lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnL(tτ3)L=lnT2T+lnL(tτ3)V2L2V+lnL2T(tψ)V(tψ)LT2V2,
lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnI(tτ4)I=lnT2T+lnI(tτ4)V2I2V+lnI2T(tψ)V(tψ)IT2V2,

we get

dV2dtρdTr+rT2Tmax(TT2)2T+ρξT2V2ρξT2V2T2Tαηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψL2T(tψ)V(tψ)LT2V2dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2F(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψI2T(tψ)V(tψ)IT2V2dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FI2L(tτ3)IL2+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2F+(1η)ξT2V2GρξT2V2V2I(tτ4)VI2+ρξT2V2+ρξT2V2lnT2T+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnL2T(tψ)V(tψ)LT2V2dψ+(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnI2T(tψ)V(tψ)IT2V2dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FlnL(tτ3)V2L2V+(1η)ξT2V2GlnI(tτ4)V2I2V+αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FlnI(tτ4)I+dCωσdAσξT4dIdCqρ1C.

By using the equality:

lnL(tτ3)V2L2V+lnI(tτ4)I=lnI2L(tτ3)IL2+lnV2I(tτ4)VI2,

and rearranging the R.H.S. of dV2dt, we get

dV2dtρdTr+rT2Tmax(TT2)2TρξT2V2T2T1lnT2TρξT2V2V2I(tτ4)VI21lnV2I(tτ4)VI2αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψL2T(tψ)V(tψ)LT2V21lnL2T(tψ)V(tψ)LT2V2dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FI2L(tτ3)IL21lnI2L(tτ3)IL2(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψI2T(tψ)V(tψ)IT2V21lnI2T(tψ)V(tψ)IT2V2dψ.+dCωσR2C1C.=ρdTr+rT2Tmax(TT2)2TρξT2V2HT2TρξT2V2HV2I(tτ4)VI2αηen3τ3α+dLξT2V20τ1f(ψ)en1ψHL2T(tψ)V(tψ)LT2V2dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT2V2FHI2L(tτ3)IL2(1η)ξT2V20τ2g(ψ)en2ψHI2T(tψ)V(tψ)IT2V2dψ+dCωσR2C1C.

We see that dV2dt0 when R1A>1, R2C1 and dTr+rT2Tmax>0. Also, dV2dt=0 when, T=T2, L=L2, I=I2, V=V2 and C=0. The solutions of system (5)(10) tend to M2 the largest invariant subset of M2={(T,L,I,V,A,C)|dV2dt=0}. For each element in M2 we have V=V2 then V˙=0 and from Eq. (8) we have 0=V˙=ken4τ4I2dVV2uAV2, which gives A(t)=A2, for all t. It follows that M2={SS2}. By applying LIP we get that SS2 is GAS when R1A>1, R2C1 and dTr+rT2Tmax>0.

Theorem 5

The steady state SS3 is GAS when R1C>1 , R1AR2C1 and dTr+rT3Tmax>0 .

Proof

Define a V3(T,L,I,V,A,C) as:

V3=ρT3HTT3+αen3τ3α+dLL3HLL3+I3HII3+(dI+ωC3)en4τ4kV3HVV3+(dI+ωC3)uen4τ4kqA+ωσC3HCC3+U3(t),

where

U3(t)=αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T3V3dϕdψ+(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T3V3dϕdψ+αen3τ3L3tτ3tHL(ϕ)L3dϕ+(dI+ωC3)I3tτ4tHI(ϕ)I3dϕ.

We have V3(T,L,I,V,A,C)>0 for all T,L,I,V,A,C>0, and V3(T3,L3,I3,V3,0,C3)=0. Then, we have

dU3(t)dt=ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L3lnL(tτ3)L+(dI+ωC3)II(tτ4)+I3lnI(tτ4)I.

Hence,

dV3dt=ρ1T3TT˙+αen3τ3α+dL1L3LL˙+1I3II˙+(dI+ωC3)en4τ4k1V3VV˙+(dI+ωC3)uen4τ4kqA˙+ωσ1C3CC˙+dU3(t)dt=ρ1T3TλdTT+rT1TTmaxξTV+αen3τ3α+dL1L3Lη0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(α+dL)L+1I3I(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dIIωCI+(dI+ωC3)en4τ4k1V3Vken4τ4I(tτ4)dVVuAV+(dI+ωC3)uen4τ4kqqAVdAA+ωσ1C3CσCIdCC+ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L3lnL(tτ3)L+(dI+ωC3)II(tτ4)+I3lnI(tτ4)I. (27)

Simplifying Eq. (27) we get

dV3dt=ρ1T3TλdTT+rT1TTmax+ρξT3Vαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψL3ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Ldψ+αen3τ3L3(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψI3ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Idψαen3τ3I3L(tτ3)I+dII3+ωI3C(dI+ωC3)dVen4τ4kV(dI+ωC3)V3I(tτ4)V+(dI+ωC3)dVen4τ4kV3+(dI+ωC3)uen4τ4kV3A(dI+ωC3)dAuen4τ4kqAdCωσC+dCωσC3+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3L3lnL(tτ3)L+(dI+ωC3)I3lnI(tτ4)I. (28)

The components of SS3 satisfy

λ=dTT3rT31T3Tmax+ξT3V3,
αen3τ3L3=αηen3τ3α+dLFξT3V3,(dI+ωC3)I3=ρξT3V3=(dI+ωC3)dVen4τ4kV3,
I3=dCσ.

Then we get,

λdTT+rT1TTmax=(T3T)dTr+rT3Tmax+rTTmax+ξT3V3.

By using the above equalities, the derivative in Eq. (28) is transformed into

dV3dtρdTr+rT3Tmax(TT3)2T+ρξT3V3ρξT3V3T3Tαηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψL3T(tψ)V(tψ)LT3V3dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3F(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψI3T(tψ)V(tψ)IT3V3dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FI3L(tτ3)IL3+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3F+(1η)ξT3V3GρξT3V3V3I(tτ4)VI3+ρξT3V3+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FlnL(tτ3)L+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FlnI(tτ4)I+(1η)ξT3V3GlnI(tτ4)I+(dI+ωC3)uen4τ4kV3dAqA.

Now, using the following equalities:

lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnL(tτ3)L=lnT3T+lnL(tτ3)V3L3V+lnL3T(tψ)V(tψ)LT3V3,
lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnI(tτ4)I=lnT3T+lnI(tτ4)V3I3V+lnI3T(tψ)V(tψ)IT3V3,

we get

dV3dtρdTr+rT3Tmax(TT3)2T+ρξT3V3ρξT3V3T3Tαηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψL3T(tψ)V(tψ)LT3V3dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3F(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψI3T(tψ)V(tψ)IT3V3dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FI3L(tτ3)IL3+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3F+(1η)ξT3V3GρξT3V3V3I(tτ4)VI3+ρξT3V3+ρξT3V3lnT3T+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnL3T(tψ)V(tψ)LT3V3dψ+(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnI3T(tψ)V(tψ)IT3V3dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FlnL(tτ3)V3L3V+(1η)ξT3V3GlnI(tτ4)V3I3V+αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FlnI(tτ4)I+(dI+ωC3)dAuen4τ4kqdCkqen4τ4dVdAσ1A.

By using the equality:

lnL(tτ3)V3L3V+lnI(tτ4)I=lnI3L(tτ3)IL3+lnV3I(tτ4)VI3,

and rearranging the R.H.S. of dV3dt, we get

dV3dtρdTr+rT3Tmax(TT3)2TρξT3V3T3T1lnT3TρξT3V3V3I(tτ4)VI31lnV3I(tτ4)VI3αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψL3T(tψ)V(tψ)LT3V31lnL3T(tψ)V(tψ)LT3V3dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FI3L(tτ3)IL31lnI3L(tτ3)IL3(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψI3T(tψ)V(tψ)IT3V31lnI3T(tψ)V(tψ)IT3V3dψ+(dI+ωC3)dAuen4τ4kqR1AR2C1A.=ρdTr+rT3Tmax(TT3)2TρξT3V3HT3TρξT3V3HV3I(tτ4)VI3αηen3τ3α+dLξT3V30τ1f(ψ)en1ψHL3T(tψ)V(tψ)LT3V3dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT3V3FHI3L(tτ3)IL3(1η)ξT3V30τ2g(ψ)en2ψHI3T(tψ)V(tψ)IT3V3dψ+(dI+ωC3)dAuen4τ4kqR1AR2C1A.

We see that dV3dt0 when R1C>1, R1AR2C1 and dTr+rT3Tmax>0. Also, dV3dt=0 when, T=T3, L=L3, I=I3, V=V3 and A=0. The solutions of system (5)(10) tend to M3 the largest invariant subset of M3={(T,L,I,V,A,C)|dV3dt=0}. For each element in M3 we have I=I3 then I˙=0 and Eq. (7) becomes 0=I˙=(1η)GξT3V3+αen3τ3L3dII3ωI3C, which gives C(t)=C3, for all t. It follows that M3={SS3}. LIP implies that SS3 is GAS when R1C>1, R1AR2C1 and dTr+rT3Tmax>0.

Theorem 6

The steady state SS4 is GAS when R1A>R2C>1 and dTr+rT4Tmax>0 .

Proof

Define a function V4(T,L,I,V,A,C) as:

V4=ρT4HTT4+αen3τ3α+dLL4HLL4+I4HII4+(dI+ωC4)en4τ4kV4HVV4+(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kqA4HAA4+ωσC4HCC4+U4(t),

where

U4(t)=αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T4V4dϕdψ+(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψtψtHT(ϕ)V(ϕ)T4V4dϕdψ+αen3τ3L4tτ3tHL(ϕ)L4dϕ+(dI+ωC4)I4tτ4tHI(ϕ)I4dϕ.

We have V4(T,L,I,V,A,C)>0 for all T,L,I,V,A,C>0, and V4(T4,L4,I4,V4,A4,C4)=0. Then, we have

dU4(t)dt=ρξTVαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L4lnL(tτ3)L+(dI+ωC4)II(tτ4)+I4lnI(tτ4)I.

Hence,

dV4dt=ρ1T4TT˙+αen3τ3α+dL1L4LL˙+1I4II˙+(dI+ωC4)en4τ4k1V4VV˙+(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kq1A4AA˙+ωσ1C4CC˙+dU4(t)dt=ρ1T4TλdTT+rT1TTmaxξTV+αen3τ3α+dL1L4Lη0τ1f(ψ)en1ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ(α+dL)L+1I4I(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψξT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dIIωCI+(dI+ωC4)en4τ4k1V4Vken4τ4I(tτ4)dVVuAV+(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kq1A4AqAVdAA+ωσ1C4CσCIdCC+ρξTV+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3LL(tτ3)+L4lnL(tτ3)L+(dI+ωC4)II(tτ4)+I4lnI(tτ4)I. (29)

Eq. (29) can be written as:

dV4dt=ρ1T4TλdTT+rT1TTmax+ρξT4Vαηen3τ3α+dL0τ1f(ψ)en1ψL4ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Ldψ+αen3τ3L4(1η)0τ2g(ψ)en2ψI4ξT(tψ)V(tψ)Idψαen3τ3I4L(tτ3)I+dII4+ωI4C(dI+ωC4)dVen4τ4kV(dI+ωC4)V4I(tτ4)V+(dI+ωC4)dVen4τ4kV4+(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kV4A(dI+ωC4)dAuen4τ4kqA(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kA4V+(dI+ωC4)dAuen4τ4kqA4dCωσC+dCωσC4+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αen3τ3L4lnL(tτ3)L+(dI+ωC4)I4lnI(tτ4)I. (30)

The steady state SS4 satisfies the following:

λ=dTT4rT41T4Tmax+ξT4V4,
αen3τ3L4=αηen3τ3α+dLFξT4V4,(dI+ωC4)I4=ρξT4V4=(dI+ωC4)dVen4τ4kV4+(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kV4A4,
V4=dAq,I4=dCσ,

then we get,

λdTT+rT1TTmax=(T4T)dTr+rT4Tmax+rTTmax+ξT4V4.

By using the above conditions, the derivative in (30) is transformed into

dV4dtρdTr+rT4Tmax(TT4)2T+ρξT4V4ρξT4V4T4T+ρξT4(dI+ωC4)dVen4τ4k(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kA4Vαηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψL4T(tψ)V(tψ)LT4V4dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4F(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψI4T(tψ)V(tψ)IT4V4dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT4V2FI4L(tτ3)IL4+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4F+(1η)ξT4V2GρξT4V4V4I(tτ4)VI4+ρξT4V4+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnT(tψ)V(tψ)TVdψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4FlnL(tτ3)L+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4FlnI(tτ4)I+(1η)ξT4V4GlnI(tτ4)I.

The steady state conditions of SS4 imply that

ρξT4(dI+ωC4)dVen4τ4k(dI+ωC4)uen4τ4kA4=0.

Now, using the following equalities:

lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnL(tτ3)L=lnT4T+lnL(tτ3)V4L4V+lnL4T(tψ)V(tψ)LT4V4,
lnT(tψ)V(tψ)TV+lnI(tτ4)I=lnT4T+lnI(tτ4)V4I4V+lnI4T(tψ)V(tψ)IT4V4,

we get

dV4dtρdTr+rT4Tmax(TT4)2T+ρξT4V4ρξT4V4T4Tαηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψL4T(tψ)V(tψ)LT4V4dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4F(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψI4T(tψ)V(tψ)IT4V4dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4FI4L(tτ3)IL4+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4F+(1η)ξT4V4GρξT4V4V4I(tτ4)VI4+ρξT4V4+ρξT4V4lnT4T+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψlnL4T(tψ)V(tψ)LT4V4dψ+(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψlnI4T(tψ)V(tψ)IT4V4dψ+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4FlnL(tτ3)V4L4V+(1η)ξT4V4GlnI(tτ4)V4I4V+αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4FlnI(tτ4)I.

By using the equality:

lnL(tτ3)V4L4V+lnI(tτ4)I=lnI4L(tτ3)IL4+lnV4I(tτ4)VI4,

and rearranging the R.H.S. of dV4dt, we get

dV4dtρdTr+rT4Tmax(TT4)2TρξT4V4T4T1lnT4TρξT4V4V4I(tτ4)VI41lnV4I(tτ4)VI4αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψL4T(tψ)V(tψ)LT4V41lnL4T(tψ)V(tψ)LT4V4dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4FI4L(tτ3)IL41lnI4L(tτ3)IL4(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψI4T(tψ)V(tψ)IT4V41lnI4T(tψ)V(tψ)IT4V4dψ.=ρdTr+rT4Tmax(TT4)2TρξT4V4HT4TρξT4V4HV4I(tτ4)VI4αηen3τ3α+dLξT4V40τ1f(ψ)en1ψHL4T(tψ)V(tψ)LT4V4dψαηen3τ3α+dLξT4V4FHI4L(tτ3)IL4(1η)ξT4V40τ2g(ψ)en2ψHI4T(tψ)V(tψ)IT4V4dψ.

We see that dV4dt0 when R1A>R2C>1 and dTr+rT4Tmax>0. Also, dV4dt=0 when, T=T4, L=L4, I=I4 and V=V4. The solutions of system (5)(10) tend to M4 the largest invariant subset of M4={(T,L,I,V,A,C)|dV4dt=0}. For each element in M4 we have V=V4, I=I4 then V˙=0, I˙=0 and from Eq. (8) we have 0=V˙=ken4τ4I4dVV4uAV4, which gives A(t)=A4, for all t. Further, from Eq. (7) we have 0=I˙=(1η)GξT4V4+αen3τ3L4dII4ωI4C, which gives C(t)=C4, for all t. It follows that M4={SS4}. LIP implies that SS4 is GAS when R1A>R2C>1 and dTr+rT4Tmax>0

Based on the above findings, we summarize the existence and global stability conditions for all steady state points in Table 1.

Table 1.

Steady states and their global stability conditions for model (5)(10).

Steady state Global stability conditions
SS0=(T0,0,0,0,0,0) R01
SS1=(T1,L1,I1,V1,0,0) R1A1<R0, R1C1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0
SS2=(T2,L2,I2,V2,A2,0) R1A>1, R2C1 and dTr+rT2Tmax>0
SS3=(T3,L3,I3,V3,0,C3) R1C>1, R1AR2C and dTr+rT3Tmax>0
SS4=(T4,L4,I4,V4,A4,C4) R1A>R2C>1 and dTr+rT4Tmax>0

5. Numerical simulations

In this section, we execute numerical simulations to enhance the results of Theorems 2–6. Besides, we study the impact of time delays on the dynamical behavior of the system. Let us take a particular form of the probability distributed functions as:

f(ψ)=δ(ψψ1),g(ψ)=δ(ψψ2),

where δ(.) is the Dirac delta function. When τi,i=1,2, we have

0f(ψ)dψ=1,0g(ψ)dψ=1.

We have

0δ(ψψi)eniψdψ=eniψi,i=1,2.

Moreover,

0δ(ψψi)eniψT(tψ)V(tψ)dψ=eniψiT(tψi)V(tψi),i=1,2.

Hence, model (5)(10) becomes:

T˙(t)=λdTT(t)+rT(t)1T(t)TmaxξV(t)T(t), (31)
L˙(t)=ηξen1ψ1V(tψ1)T(tψ1)αL(t)dLL(t), (32)
I˙(t)=(1η)ξen2ψ2V(tψ2)T(tψ2)+αen3τ3L(tτ3)dII(t)ωC(t)I(t), (33)
V˙(t)=ken4τ4I(tτ4)dVV(t)uV(t)A(t), (34)
A˙(t)=qV(t)A(t)dAA(t), (35)
C˙(t)=σC(t)I(t)dCC(t). (36)

The basic reproduction number of model (31)(36) is given by:

R0=ξT0ken4τ4dIdVαηen3τ3α+dLen1ψ1+(1η)en2ψ2. (37)

To solve system (31)(36) we use the MATLAB solver dde23. Without loss of generality let us consider for simplicity that ψ1=ψ2=τ3=τ4=τ. The values of some parameters of model (31)(36) are chosen as λ=0.11, r=0.01, Tmax=12, η=0.5, α=4.08, ω=0.001, k=0.22, u=0.05, dT=0.01, dL=103, dI=0.13, dV=4.36, dA=0.028, dC=0.06, n1=103, n2=0.11, n3=1, and n4=1. The remaining parameters of the model will be varied. In fact, obtaining real measurements from COVID-19 patients is difficult, therefore we have chosen the values of the model’s parameters just to conduct the numerical simulations. However, if one can get real data, then the parameters of the model can be estimated and the model can be validated. We select three different sets of initial conditions for (31)(36):

Initial-1:T(ϰ),L(ϰ),I(ϰ),V(ϰ),A(ϰ),C(ϰ)=(8,0.004,0.2,0.01,14,20),
Initial-2:T(ϰ),L(ϰ),I(ϰ),V(ϰ),A(ϰ),C(ϰ)=(7,0.006,0.4,0.02,15,30),
Initial-3:T(ϰ),L(ϰ),I(ϰ),V(ϰ),A(ϰ),C(ϰ)=(6,0.008,0.6,0.03,16,40),

where ϰ[τ,0].

5.1. Stability of steady states

In this subsection we address the stability of the five steady states with τ=0.1, and ξ,q and σ are varied.

Case 1 (Stability ofSS0): ξ=0.05, q=0.5 and σ =0.09. Using these data, we compute R0=0.1910<1. According to Theorem 2, SS0 is GAS and the SARS-CoV-2 is predicted to be completely removed from the body. From Fig. 1, we can see that the numerical results agree with the results of Theorem 2. We observe that, the concentration of healthy epithelial cells is increased and converged to its normal value T0=11.4891, while the concentrations of latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, antibodies and CTLs are extremely decaying and tend to zero.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Solutions of system (31)(36) with three initial conditions when R01. (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.

Case 2 (Stability ofSS1): ξ=0.5, q=0.5 and σ =0.05. Using these data, we compute R1A=0.5907<1, R1C=0.6014<1<R0=1.9102 and dTr+rT1Tmax=0.005>0. According to Theorem 3, SS1 is GAS. From Fig. 2, we see that there is an agreement between the numerical and results of Theorem 3. In addition, the states of the system converge to the steady state SS1=(6.0147,0.0098,0.5816,0.0266,0,0).

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Solutions of system (31)(36) with three initial conditions when R1A1<R0, R1C1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0. (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.

Case 3 (Stability ofSS2): ξ=0.5, q=1.4 and σ=0.05. Using these data, we compute R1A=1.1574>1,R2C=0.6014<1 and dTr+rT2Tmax=0.0058>0. According to Theorem 4, SS2 is GAS. The numerical solutions displayed in Fig. 3 is consistent with results of Theorem 4. Further, the states of the system converge to the steady state SS2=(6.9615,0.0085,0.507,0.02,13.7267,0).

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Solutions of system (31)(36) with three initial conditions when R1A>1, R2C1 and dTr+rT2Tmax>0. (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTL cells.

Case 4 (Stability ofSS3): ξ=0.5, q=1.4 and σ =0.16. Using these data, we compute R1C=1.2384>1,R1AR2C=0.8561<1 and dTr+rT3Tmax=0.0062>0. According to Theorem 5, SS3 is GAS and this is shown in Fig. 4. We can see that, the states of the system converge to the steady state SS3=(7.4490,0.0078,0.375,0.0171,0,30.993).

Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

Solutions of system (31)(36) with three initial conditions when R1C>1, R1AR2C1 and dTr+rT3Tmax>0. (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.

Case 5 (Stability ofSS4): ξ=0.5, q=1.9 and σ=0.16. Using these data, we compute R1AR2C=1.1618>1,R2C=1.1290>1 and dTr+rT4Tmax=0.0066>0. According to Theorem 6, SS4 is GAS and this is clarified numerically in Fig. 5. The states of the system converge to the steady state SS4=(7.8893,0.0071,0.375,0.0147,14.1094,16.7705).

Fig. 5.

Fig. 5

Solutions of system (31)(36) with three initial conditions when R1A>R2C>1 and dTr+rT4Tmax>0. (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTL cells.

5.2. Effect of the time delay on the SAR-CoV-2 dynamics

In this subsection, we explore the impact of time delays τ on the stability of the steady states. We observe from Eq. (37) that the parameter R0 relies on the delay parameter τ which causes a significant change in the stability of the system. To clarify this situation, we choose ξ =0.5, q=1.9, σ =0.16 and τ is varied. Moreover, we consider the initial condition initial-3. Fig. 6 shows the influence of time delay on the solution trajectories of the system. We notice that as time delay τ is increased the number of the healthy epithelial cells is increased, while the numbers of latent infected cells, active infected cells, SARS-CoV-2 particles, CTLs and antibodies are decreased. When all other parameters are fixed and delays are varied,R0can be written as:

R0(τ)=kξen4τT0dIdVαηen3τα+dLen1τ+(1η)en2τ.

We can see that R0 is a decreasing function of τ. When the delay length becomes sufficiently large, R0 becomes less than or equal one, which makes the healthy steady state SS0 is GAS. From a biological viewpoint, time delays play positive roles in the SARS-CoV-2 infection process in order to eliminate the virus. Sufficiently large time delays makes the SARS-CoV-2 development slower, and the SARS-CoV-2 is controlled and disappears. This gives us some suggestions on new drugs to prolong the time of formation of latent infected epithelial cells, or the time of formation of active infected epithelial cells, or the time of activation of latent infected epithelial cells, or the time for SARS-CoV-2 particles to mature (infectious). Now we calculate the range of the time delay which makes R01. Let us compute the minimum delay length τcr that solves the equation R0(τcr)=1 and makes the system has only one steady state SS0. Using the values of the parameters we get, τcr=0.533434. From Fig. 6 we can see the following scenarios:

Fig. 6.

Fig. 6

Solutions of system (31)(36) under the influence of the time delays τ. (a) Healthy epithelial cell; (b) Latent infected cells; (c) Active infected cells; (d) SARS-CoV-2 particles; (e) Antibodies; (f) CTLs.

(i) if τ0.533434, then R01 and the system has a single steady state SS0 and it is GAS;

(ii) if 0τ<0.533434, then R0>1 and one of the other steady states is GAS.

6. Conclusion

In this paper, we formulated a SARS-CoV-2 infection model with distributed and discrete delays and adaptive immune response. Four time delays are included in the model: delay in the formation of latent infected cells, delay in the formation of active infected cells, delay in the activation of latent infected cells, maturation delay of new SARS-CoV-2 particles. We consider a logistic term for the healthy epithelial cells. The non-negativity and boundedness of the solutions of the models have been shown. Further, we derived four threshold parameters, the basic infection reproductive ratio R0, the active antibody immunity reproductive ratio R1A, the active CTL immunity reproductive ratio R1C and the competed CTL immunity reproductive ratio R2C. The global stability of all steady states of the models was investigated by constructing Lyapunov functions and LaSalle’s invariance principal. We obtained that the infection-free steady state SS0 is GAS when R01. When R1A1<R0, R1C1 and dTr+rT1Tmax>0 the infected steady state with inactive immune response SS1 is GAS. When R1A>1, R2C1 and dTr+rT2Tmax>0 the infected steady state with only active antibody immune response SS2 is GAS. While, the infected steady state with only active CTL immune response SS3 is globally asymptotically stable when R1C>1, R2A1 and dTr+rT3Tmax>0. Finally, we found that the infected steady state with both active antibody and CTL immune responses SS4 is GAS when R1A>R2C>1 and dTr+rT4Tmax>0. We performed the numerical simulations for the model and we showed that both numerical and theoretical results are consistent. Moreover, we have demonstrated that the increase of time delays period can play the same influence as the antiviral treatment.

Model (5)(10) assumes that viruses and cells are well mixed and neglected the mobility of them. Viruses and cells can move and go from high concentration regions to low concentration regions [56], [57], [58], [59]. Taking into account the mobility of viruses and cells, model (5)(9) can be extended as:

Tx,tt=DTΔTx,t+λdTTx,t+rTx,t1Tx,tTmaxξTx,tVx,t,
Lx,tt=DLΔLx,t+ηξ0τ1f(ψ)en1ψV(x,tψ)T(x,tψ)dψαLx,tdLLx,t,
Ix,tt=DIΔIx,t+(1η)ξ0τ2g(ψ)en2ψV(x,tψ)T(x,tψ)dψ+αen3τ3L(x,tτ3)dIIx,tωIx,tCx,t,
Vx,tt=DVΔVx,t+ken4τ4I(x,tτ4)dVVx,tuVx,tAx,t,
Ax,tt=DAΔAx,t+qVx,tAx,tdAAx,t,
Cx,tt=DCΔCx,t+σIx,tCx,tdCCx,t,

where x=x1,x2,,xmΩ, Δ=2x2 is the Laplacian operator and Dχ is the diffusion coefficient corresponding to compartment χ of the model.

Our model can also be extended by (i) expanding to multiscale model to get a deeper understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics [60], [61] and (ii) considering stochastic interactions [62], [63], [64], [65], [66].

CRediT authorship contribution statement

A.M. Elaiw: Conceptualization, Methodology. A.J. Alsaedi: Formal analysis, Writing – original draft. A.D. Hobiny: Investigation. S. Aly: Writing – review & editing.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

This project was funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia under grant no. (201/130/1434). The authors, therefore, acknowledge with thanks DSR technical and financial support.

Data availability

No data was used for the research described in the article.

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