Abstract
Carpooling is a sustainable, economical, and environmentally friendly solution to reduce air pollution and ease traffic congestion in urban areas. However, existing regret theories lack consideration of the heterogeneity of attribute perception in different ways and the psychological factors that affect regret, so they cannot accurately portray urban residents’ carpool travel decisions and cannot provide a correct explanation of the actual carpool choice behavior. In this paper, based on the analysis of classical random regret minimization models and random regret minimization models considering heterogeneity, the concept of psychological distance is introduced to address shortcomings of the existing models and construct an improved random regret minimization model considering heterogeneity and psychological distance. The results show that the fit and explanatory effect of the improved model proposed in this paper is better than that of the other two models. The psychological distance of travel residents during the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) affects the anticipated regret value and the willingness to carpool. The model can better describe the carpool travel choice mechanism of travelers and effectively explain the carpool travel choice behavior of travelers.
Key words: carpool travel behavior, random regret minimization theory, anticipated regret value, perceived heterogeneity, psychological distance
Abstract
合乘是一种可持续、经济和环保的解决方案,可以有效减少城市地区的空气污染和缓解交通拥堵。然而现有的后悔理论缺少考虑不同方式属性感知异质性以及影响后悔的心理因素,不能对城市居民合乘出行决策进行准确刻画,也不能对真实合乘选择行为做出正确的解释。本文在分析经典随机后悔最小化模型和考虑异质性随机后悔最小化模型的基础上,针对现有模型的不足,引入心理距离概念,构建了考虑异质性和心理距离的随机后悔最小化改进模型。结果表明,本文提出的改进模型的拟合度和解释效果相较于其他两种模型均较优,出行居民在2019冠状病毒病疫情期间的心理距离会影响出行决策的预期后悔值和合乘意愿。该模型可以更好地描述出行居民合乘出行选择机理,有效地解释出行居民的合乘选择行为。
关键词: 合乘出行行为, 随机后悔最小化理论, 预期后悔值, 感知异质性, 心理距离
Footnotes
Foundation item
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52062026), the Educational Commission of Gansu Province of China (No. 2019A-041), and the Double-First Class Major Research Programs of Educational Department of Gansu Province (No. GSSYLXM-04)
References
- [1].Quirós C, Portela J, Marín R. Differentiated models in the collaborative transport economy: A mixture analysis for Blablacar and Uber [J] Technology in Society. 2021;67:101727. doi: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101727. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [2].Seddighi H, Baharmand H. Exploring the role of the sharing economy in disasters management [J] Technology in Society. 2020;63:101363. doi: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101363. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [3].Wang Y L, Kutadinata R, Winter S. The evolutionary interaction between taxi-sharing behaviours and social networks [J] Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2019;119:170–180. [Google Scholar]
- [4].Bachmann F, Hanimann A, Artho J, et al. What drives people to carpool? Explaining carpooling intention from the perspectives of carpooling passengers and drivers [J] Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. 2018;59:260–268. doi: 10.1016/j.trf.2018.08.022. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [5].Xiao Q, He R C, Yu J N. Evaluation of taxi car-pooling feasibility in different urban areas through the K-means matter-element analysis method [J] Technology in Society. 2018;53:135–143. doi: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2018.01.008. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [6].Sofi DINESH, Rejikumar G, Sisodia G S. An empirical investigation into carpooling behaviour for sustainability [J] Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. 2021;77:181–196. doi: 10.1016/j.trf.2021.01.005. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [7].Ou H, Tang T Q. Impacts of carpooling on trip costs under car-following model [J] Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications. 2018;505:136–143. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.03.042. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [8].Wu J R, Wang Y Q, Chen X H. Impact analysis of commuting rideshare design and organizational efficiency during public health emergencies [J] China Journal of Highway and Transport. 2020;33(11):20–29. [Google Scholar]
- [9].Xu A F, Chen J M, Liu Z H. Exploring the effects of carpooling on travelers’ behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of metropolitan city [J] Sustainability. 2021;13(20):11136. doi: 10.3390/su132011136. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [10].Wang D, He B Y, Gao J Q, et al. Impact of COVID-19 behavioral inertia on reopening strategies for New York City transit [J] International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology. 2021;10(2):197–211. doi: 10.1016/j.ijtst.2021.01.003. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [11].Shakibaei S, De J G C, Alpkökin P, et al. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel behavior in Istanbul: A panel data analysis [J] Sustainable Cities and Society. 2021;65:102619. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102619. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- [12].Beck M J, Hensher D A. Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia — The early days of easing restrictions [J] Transport Policy. 2020;99:95–119. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.08.004. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- [13].Zhang X Y, Shao C F, Wang B B, et al. Travel mode choice analysis with shared mobility in context of COVID-19 [J] Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology. 2022;22(2):186–196. [Google Scholar]
- [14].Chen X Q. Review of APP-based ridesharing mobility research [J] Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology. 2021;21(5):77–90. [Google Scholar]
- [15].Yuen K F, Tan L S, Wong Y D, et al. Social determinants of panic buying behaviour amidst COVID-19 pandemic: The role of perceived scarcity and anticipated regret [J] Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. 2022;66:102948. doi: 10.1016/j.jretconser.2022.102948. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [16].Rowland E. Theory of games and economic behavior [J] Nature. 1946;157(3981):172–173. doi: 10.1038/157172a0. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [17].Neumann J V, Morgenstern O. Theory of games and economic behavior [M] Princeton: Princeton University Press; 1944. [Google Scholar]
- [18].Chen L, Ma Z J, Li Q R, et al. Waiting decision behavior of commuters for bus transits based on prospect theory [J] Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems. 2021;147(4):04021008. [Google Scholar]
- [19].Jou R C, Chen K H. An application of cumulative prospect theory to freeway drivers’ route choice behaviours [J] Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2013;49:123–131. [Google Scholar]
- [20].Zhou L Z, Zhong S Q, Ma S F, et al. Prospect theory based estimation of drivers’ risk attitudes in route choice behaviors [J] Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2014;73:1–11. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.08.004. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- [21].Loomes G, Sugden R. Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty [J] The Economic Journal. 1982;92(368):805–824. doi: 10.2307/2232669. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [22].Green R C, Srivastava S. Expected utility maximization and demand behavior [J] Journal of Economic Theory. 1986;38(2):313–323. doi: 10.1016/0022-0531(86)90121-3. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [23].Ettema D, Timmermans H. Costs of travel time uncertainty and benefits of travel time information: Conceptual model and numerical examples [J] Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies. 2006;14(5):335–350. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2006.09.001. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [24].Baucells M, Heukamp F H. Probability and time trade-off [J] Management Science. 2012;58(4):831–842. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1450. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [25].She S X, Lu Q, Ma C Q. A probability-time&space trade-off model in environmental risk perception [J] Journal of Risk Research. 2012;15(2):223–234. doi: 10.1080/13669877.2011.634515. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [26].Karni E. Subjective expected utility theory with costly actions [J] Games and Economic Behavior. 2005;50(1):28–41. doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2003.12.001. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [27].Bleichrodt H, Pinto J L, Wakker P P. Making descriptive use of prospect theory to improve the prescriptive use of expected utility [J] Management Science. 2001;47(11):1498–1514. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.47.11.1498.10248. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [28].Avineri E, Prashker J N. Violations of expected utility theory in route-choice stated preferences: Certainty effect and inflation of small probabilities [J] Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2004;1894(1):222–229. doi: 10.3141/1894-23. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [29].Ghader S, Darzi A, Zhang L. Modeling effects of travel time reliability on mode choice using cumulative prospect theory [J] Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies. 2019;108:245–254. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2019.09.014. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [30].Xu H L, Zhou J, Xu W. A decision-making rule for modeling travelers’ route choice behavior based on cumulative prospect theory [J] Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies. 2011;19(2):218–228. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2010.05.009. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [31].Gao K, Sun L J, Yang Y, et al. Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior [J] Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2021;148:1–21. [Google Scholar]
- [32].Bell D E. Regret in decision making under uncertainty [J] Operations Research. 1982;30(5):803–1022. doi: 10.1287/opre.30.5.961. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [33].Wong S D, Chorus C G, Shaheen S A, et al. A revealed preference methodology to evaluate regret minimization with challenging choice sets: A wildfire evacuation case study [J] Travel Behaviour and Society. 2020;20:331–347. doi: 10.1016/j.tbs.2020.04.003. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [34].Yang Y, Jiang R, Han X, et al. Experimental study and modeling of departure time choice behavior in the bottleneck model with staggered work hours [J] Travel Behaviour and Society. 2022;27:79–94. doi: 10.1016/j.tbs.2021.12.004. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [35].Chorus C G, Arentze T A, Timmermans H J P. A Random Regret-Minimization model of travel choice [J] Transportation Research Part B: Methodological. 2008;42(1):1–18. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2007.05.004. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [36].Li M, Huang H J. A regret theory-based route choice model [J] Transportmetrica A Transport Science. 2017;13(3):250–272. doi: 10.1080/23249935.2016.1252445. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [37].Xianyu J C, Juan Z C, Zhu T Y. Travel choice behavior based on regret theory view [J] Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering. 2012;12(3):67–72. [Google Scholar]
- [38].Kim J, Rasouli S, Timmermans H. Satisfaction and uncertainty in car-sharing decisions: An integration of hybrid choice and random regret-based models [J] Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2017;95:13–33. [Google Scholar]
- [39].Wang W, Li LW, Liu Y F. Study on the influence of psychological distance on perceived risk and trust of ride-hailing users: Based on the perspective of construal level theory [J] Resource Development & Market. 2021;37(5):520–524. [Google Scholar]
- [40].Xu Y, Xu W, Zhou J, et al. A random regret minimization travel choice model considering psychological distance [J] Journal of Systems & Management. 2019;28(4):679–686. [Google Scholar]
- [41].Chorus C G. A generalized random regret minimization model [J] Transportation Research Part B: Methodological. 2014;68:224–238. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2014.06.009. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [42].De Moraes R G, Daamen W, Hoogen-Doorn S. Expected utility theory, prospect theory, and regret theory compared for prediction of route choice behavior [J] Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2011;2230(1):19–28. doi: 10.3141/2230-03. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [43].Chorus C G. A new model of random regret minimization [J] European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. 2010;10(2):181–196. [Google Scholar]
- [44].Ye X F, Yang C, Wang T, et al. Research on parking app choice behavior based on MNL [J] Travel Behaviour and Society. 2021;25:174–182. doi: 10.1016/j.tbs.2021.07.007. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [45].Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk [J] Econometrica. 1979;47(2):263. doi: 10.2307/1914185. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [46].Sharma B, Hickman M, Nassir N. Park-and-ride lot choice model using random utility maximization and random regret minimization [J] Transportation. 2019;46(1):217–232. doi: 10.1007/s11116-017-9804-0. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [47].Yang F, Hou Z T, Zhou T. Improvement of classic random regret minimization model considering heterogeneity [J] Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology. 2020;20(6):191–196. [Google Scholar]
- [48].Jean H. The failure of expected-utility theory as a theory of reason [J] Economics and Philosophy. 1994;10(2):195–242. doi: 10.1017/S0266267100004739. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- [49].Rasouli S, Timmermans H. Applications of theories and models of choice and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty in travel behavior research [J] Travel Behaviour and Society. 2014;1(3):79–90. doi: 10.1016/j.tbs.2013.12.001. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
