Editor—Immunisation against measles causes a spectacular reduction of 30% to 86% in child mortality in developing countries.5-1 The benefit is greatest in the six to 12 months after immunisation, and in infancy (44% to 100%). Dalton and Emerton wonder whether the apparent benefit from measles immunisation might be a result of better nutrition and better health care in children who receive measles vaccine (socioeconomic confounding), rather than an effect of the vaccine. In the absence of any large randomised controlled trials of measles vaccine in developing countries, socioeconomic confounding cannot be excluded—but it is unlikely, for several reasons.
Firstly, in the only placebo controlled trial of measles vaccine in a developing country, none of the 23 vaccinated children died compared with 3 (12%) of the 25 unvaccinated children.5-2 Secondly, in a natural experiment in Bissau, some children were accidentally injected with an ineffective vaccine (given on five consecutive vaccination days over three weeks).5-3 There was no selection bias in this study because all the children were immunised. From the time of vaccination to 3 years of age, the death rate was 4.5% in 124 children who seroconverted after active vaccine and 15.1% in 53 children given ineffective vaccine.
Thirdly, in two large studies in Zaire5-4 and Bangladesh,5-5 confounding is unlikely because measles vaccine was made available in half the study area and not in the other. Mortality in the two areas was similar before immunisation. Immunisation reduced mortality by 42% in Zaire and by 46% in Bangladesh.
Fourthly, studies that have controlled for socioeconomic factors have still found that measles immunisation reduced mortality by 36% to 90%.5-1
Fifthly, measles immunisation is unlikely to be merely a marker for better health care because the reduction in mortality is greatest in the 12 months after measles immunisation (and the benefit of better health care should persist), and immunisation against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis is not associated with reduced mortality.5-2
Measles immunisation causes a much greater fall in mortality than the proportion of deaths attributed to measles, particularly in girls.5-1 Is this because measles causes many more deaths than we realise (from delayed effects of the disease, or from subclinical infection), or does the vaccine reduce mortality from conditions other than measles? The large reduction in mortality after immunisation is unlikely to be the result of the prevention of delayed deaths from measles because immunised children who have not had measles have a much lower mortality than unimmunised children who have not had measles.5-1 Subclinical measles infection is certainly common in both immunised and unimmunised children in developing countries, but such infections have no effect on nutritional indices or mortality.5-2
In two randomised controlled trials in Guinea-Bissau and Senegal, children were given high titre Edmonston-Zagreb (EZ) vaccine at 4-5 months of age or standard Schwarz vaccine at 9-10 months.5-2 Girls given EZ vaccine had a death rate that was 1.95 and 1.76 times respectively that of girls given Schwarz vaccine. This occurred despite the fact that there is a good antibody response to high titre EZ vaccine at 4-5 months, and there was no increase in measles in the EZ group. Both vaccines protected against measles, but the Schwarz vaccine also protected girls against diseases other than measles. Both trials were randomised, so socioeconomic confounding is unlikely to be the explanation for this remarkable finding.
Buckoke asks which conditions other than measles have a lower mortality after measles immunisation. In a study of 554 children in Bangladesh, immunised children had a lower mortality from measles (95%, 95% confidence interval 79% to 99%), oedema (71%, 29% to 88%) and diarrhoea (46%, 29% to 58%) but little or no protection against respiratory infections, fever, accidents, or other causes of death (P Aaby, unpublished data).
Finlay and Engler point out that measles may have highly undesirable effects, but there is strong evidence that measles immunisation, and mild measles, reduce child mortality. We agree with Engler that the public health issues are of crucial importance. Measles immunisation clearly causes a spectacular reduction in mortality in children in developing countries, and this effect is probably enhanced by a two-dose schedule with immunisation at 6 and 9-12 months. Far greater effort should go into seeing that all children receive measles vaccine, and, if measles is ever eradicated, controlled trials will be needed to see whether the vaccine should still be given to children in countries with high child mortality.
References
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