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. 2024 Oct 14;17(10):e70018. doi: 10.1111/1751-7915.70018

The climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus: A ‘systems thinking’ mini‐review

Jake M Robinson 1,2,✉, Craig Liddicoat 1,2, Xin Sun 2,3, Sunita Ramesh 1,2, Scott Hawken 2,4, Kevin Lee 2,5, Joel Brame 1,6, Nicole W Fickling 1,2, Emma Kuhn 2,7, Claire Hayward 2,7, Sonali Deshmukh 2,7, Kate Robinson 2, Christian Cando‐Dumancela 1,2, Martin F Breed 1,2
PMCID: PMC11472731  PMID: 39401032

Abstract

The interrelationship between climate change, pollution and the aerobiome (the microbiome of the air) is a complex ecological dynamic with profound implications for human and ecosystem health. This mini‐review explores the multifaceted relationships among these factors. By synthesising existing research and integrating interdisciplinary perspectives, we examine the mechanisms driving interactions within the climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus. We also explore synergistic and cascading effects and potential impacts on human health (including both communicable and non‐communicable diseases) and that of wider ecosystems. Based on our mini‐review results, climate change influences air pollution and, independently, air pollution affects the composition, diversity and activity of the aerobiome. However, we apply a ‘systems thinking’ approach and create a set of systems diagrams to show that climate change likely influences the aerobiome (including bacteria and fungi) via climate change–pollution interactions in complex ways. Due to the inherent complexity of these systems, we emphasise the importance of holistic and/or interdisciplinary approaches and collaborative efforts in understanding this nexus to safeguard planetary health in an era of rapid environmental change.

This mini‐review takes a ‘systems thinking’ approach to examine the relationship between climate change, pollution and the aerobiome in relation to human and ecosystem health. Synthesising existing research, we review mechanisms and synergies within this nexus, emphasising the need for holistic interdisciplinary approaches to safeguard planetary health.

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INTRODUCTION

In recent decades, climate change has led to unprecedented shifts in global weather patterns, altering temperature regimes, precipitation levels and atmospheric composition (Konapala et al., 2020; Payne et al., 2020; Wuethrich, 2000). For instance, more frequent and intense wildfires in many parts of the world release large amounts of particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO) and other pollutants into the air (Pausas & Keeley, 2021); global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C by 2100 (Rounce et al., 2023); and global sea levels have risen by >20 cm in the last century (Sarrau et al., 2024). Concurrently, pollution stemming from industrial emissions, agricultural runoff and urbanisation has profoundly impacted air quality and environmental health, exacerbating ecological stressors and threatening biodiversity. In 2019, rapid increases in particulate matter (of <2.5 microns in diameter; PM2.5) pollution were estimated to have caused over 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide (Bu et al., 2021) and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have risen significantly since pre‐industrial times, from around 280 parts per million (ppm) to over 410 ppm today (Farnsworth et al., 2023; Harde, 2023). Increasing ice melt also leads to the release of persistent organic pollutants (e.g. ‘legacy atmospheric depositions’ in glaciers) (Bogdal et al., 2010).

The aerobiome—the microbiome of a given airspace—has received growing attention in recent years as a potential key exposure route mediating human and non‐human animal health outcomes. The bioaerosol literature is dominated by studies that focus on airborne pathogens (e.g. Auvinen et al., 2022; Bolashikov & Melikov, 2009; Sahoo, 2021), which are undoubtedly important to consider in public health. However, building on the historic aim of bioaerosol research to prevent ‘unhealthy’ human exposures to pathogens and allergens, an aerobiome‐health axis paradigm shift was recently proposed (Robinson & Breed, 2023). Indeed, exposure to a naturally diverse aerobiome and other biogenic compounds is now considered important for maintaining health (Roslund et al., 2020). Therefore, a more holistic view of air quality will likely lead to improved health and environmental outcomes than examining just the health‐demoting components of air quality. Furthermore, research focussing on specific pathogens of concern has overlooked the role of the aerobiome community more broadly and how a functionally diverse community may be leveraged to control these pathogens.

It is known that the aerobiome assembly and air quality more broadly are influenced by climate dynamics (Jacob & Winner, 2009; Mhuireach et al., 2019). Within this context, air, comprising a diverse array of airborne microorganisms and biogenic compounds, along with particulate matter and other pollutants, serves as an important interface potentially linking climate change, environmental pollution and ecosystem health. Understanding the relationships between these interconnected factors (i.e. applying ‘systems thinking’) is essential for elucidating the drivers of environmental change, assessing risks to human health and ecosystem integrity and formulating effective strategies for mitigation and adaptation.

This systems thinking mini‐review explores the multifaceted relationships within the climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus, highlighting the interconnectedness of these phenomena and their implications for planetary health. Through an interdisciplinary lens, we aim to elucidate the complexities of this nexus, highlighting the mechanisms driving interactions between climate change, pollution and the aerobiome. By synthesising and evaluating climate change, pollution and aerobiome research, we seek to advance our understanding of these interconnected processes and pave the way for informed decision‐making and sustainable environmental stewardship in the face of ongoing global environmental change.

HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT AIR POLLUTION?

O3 and rising temperatures

Climate change influences air pollution through various mechanisms, including shifts in temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and large‐scale weather patterns (Im et al., 2022). Rising temperatures are linked with the accelerated formation of ground‐level ozone (O3) and increased volatility of organic compounds (Chang et al., 2023; Liu et al., 2020). Pfahl and Wernli (2012) discovered that up to 80% of warming extremes are associated with atmospheric blocking (where a high‐pressure system remains nearly stationary over a particular region for an extended period). Importantly, this atmospheric blocking plays a mediating role in the onset of heatwaves and high O3 concentrations.

Lin et al. (2020) used Earth system model simulations between 1960 and 2018 and showed that reduced ozone removal by drought‐stressed vegetation exacerbated ozone air pollution in Europe. Extreme weather conditions such as droughts and heat waves are also important in determining emissions of O3 precursors such as isoprene (a volatile organic compound; VOC) (Jiang et al., 2018). This is concerning given the predicted near‐future increase in the intensity of droughts (Park et al., 2015). Hong et al. (2019) estimated that by 2050, climate change would increase average concentrations of O3 by 4% in China, which is likely to interfere with human health and ecosystem services (e.g. pollination) (Ryalls et al., 2022). Various studies suggest that increased temperatures will also increase organic aerosols and therefore increase hydroxyl radical (OH) levels (important in the oxidation of various pollutants) and biogenic emissions (Cholakian et al., 2019; Im et al., 2022; Lacressonnière et al., 2014). Such biogenic emissions consume available OH but can also increase OH by regeneration chemistry (e.g. increasing O3 in areas with sufficient levels of NOx), so the feedback and thus predictions are complex and challenging.

PM, precipitation and wildfires

Changes in precipitation patterns can also affect the distribution and transport of air pollutants, altering air quality in different regions (Fang et al., 2011). Megaritis et al. (2014) found that climate change‐related changes in precipitation, rather than temperature, will likely have the largest non‐biological impact on the concentrations of PM2.5. If their models prove accurate, this will mainly be driven by the accelerated wet deposition of PM2.5 elements. They demonstrated that future PM2.5 concentrations may fluctuate by up to ±2 μg m−3 due to precipitation changes.

Climate change also contributes to more frequent and intense wildfires, releasing large amounts of smoke, PM and other pollutants into the air (Liu et al., 2016). The smoke emanating from wildfires comprises significantly heightened concentrations of PM2.5 (Woo et al., 2020). Knorr et al. (2017) combined existing coupled fire‐dynamic vegetation models with current observation‐based estimates of wildfire emissions to predict future trends. They suggested that wildfires could become the dominant source of PM2.5 in Australia, Africa, Latin America, Russia and parts of southern China and southern Europe. Almost all of Alaska could be exposed to a >100% increase in wildfire‐related PM2.5 (Woo et al., 2020). Additionally, climate change‐related shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns can influence the dispersion of pollutants, potentially leading to increased concentrations in certain areas.

POPs and pesticides

Climate change can also interfere with geochemical, ecological and agricultural processes that could indirectly influence air pollution dynamics. For instance, there are large amounts of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) deposited in ice formations. Under climate change, accelerated release of POPs is projected (Bogdal et al., 2010). Moreover, climate change can lead to more intense droughts, which induce plant stress and increase susceptibility to pests (Hossain et al., 2019). In agricultural settings, this could lead to an increase in pesticide use—and pesticides are often adsorbed on atmospheric aerosol particles and can be highly persistent in the environment (Socorro et al., 2016).

It is clear that climate change can affect air pollution via direct and indirect pathways (Figure 1), and these factors interconnect through complex feedback loops:

  • Direct pathways: increased temperature, heat waves and changes in precipitation.

  • Indirect pathways: altered atmospheric chemistry, ice melt, changes in agricultural practices, frequency of extreme weather events, negative changes in ecosystems, increased wildfires.

FIGURE 1.

FIGURE 1

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A systems model of climate change's potential influence on air pollution, including direct (left) and indirect (right). Red dashed links represent a negative (−) influence and blue links represent a positive (+) influence on the recipient component. Blue dashed links indicate where pollution‐related outcomes caused by climate change can feedback to drive the cause (i.e. a vicious cycle). The arrowheads indicate the directionality of the influence. Grey arrows represent topic links with no interaction implied. The figure was created using the systems software Kumu (www.kumu.io).

Interestingly, reducing air pollution is beneficial for public health, but it may increase global warming, as the interaction between aerosols and cloud reflectivity can create a cooling effect (Manshausen et al., 2022). The cooling effect is a short‐term phenomenon, and as pollution controls reduce aerosol emissions, the cooling effect may diminish, potentially revealing even more of the underlying warming driven by greenhouse gases.

HOW DOES AIR POLLUTION AFFECT THE AEROBIOME?

Air pollution can significantly impact the aerobiome, the diverse community of microorganisms present in the air. Elevated levels of pollutants such as PM, nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and VOCs are associated with the assembly composition, abundance and activity of airborne microorganisms (e Silva et al., 2020; Zhai et al., 2018). Particulate matter can serve as carriers for microorganisms, providing airborne substrate for microbial attachment and growth, while gaseous pollutants can interact with microbial cells and alter their metabolic processes (Kondakova et al., 2016; Lin et al., 2023). Additionally, air pollution can indirectly affect the aerobiome by modifying environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, nutrient availability, plant and soil health, which likely influence microbial growth, survival and migration into the air (Laforest‐Lapointe et al., 2017; Robinson, Cando‐Dumancela, et al., 2021).

PM and microbial composition, distribution and activity

Bacteria typically range in size from 0.2 to 5 μm, and each bacterium possesses uniquely shaped features that influence its adhesion to PM (DeLeon‐Rodriguez et al., 2013; Zhai et al., 2018). Due to their small size, bacteria are readily able to adhere to fine particles such as PM2.5 facilitating their transport through the atmosphere. Fungi are also found occurring on fine airborne particles (<3.3 μm) but PM10 samples typically support higher species diversity than PM2.5, with higher Shannon index values in heavy‐haze days compared to non‐ or low‐haze days (Yan et al., 2016; Zhai et al., 2018). A study showed that the mean concentration of total airborne microbiota on hazy days (6.12 × 105 ± 3.50 × 105 cells m−3) was significantly higher than on non‐hazy days (2.15 × 105 ± 1.26 × 105 cells m−3) (Xie, Li, et al., 2018)—a similar result found by Ji et al. (2019). Liu et al. (2020) also noted that the relative abundances of pathogenic bacteria were highest in the heavily and moderately polluted air. Another study showed that samples of wildfire smoke contained 4–5× higher concentrations of microbial cells (1.02 ± 0.26 × 105 cells m−3) and fivefold higher taxonomic richness compared to background air, with 78% of microbes in smoke inferred to be viable (Kobziar et al., 2022). This suggests that PM from wildfire smoke has a large‐scale influence on atmospheric microbial assemblages and warrants further research.

Zhou et al. (2021) showed that a significant change was observed in indoor airborne fungal communities impacted by hazy air pollution—indoor air was preferentially enriched with fungi (~10% biomass). As climate change likely alters airborne PM dynamics (see previous section), the aerobiome is likely to change as a result. More research is required to comprehend the specific impacts on aerobiomes. However, it is anticipated that an increase in wildfires will generally lead to heightened abundance and diversity of airborne microbiota in an affected air column. Nonetheless, the extent of this effect is expected to vary depending on local environmental conditions and site characteristics (Mhuireach et al., 2021; Palladino et al., 2021).

Dong et al. (2016) also showed an increase in total microbial biomass on hazy days, but also that temperature and O3 had a significant negative correlation, and PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO had significant positive correlations with airborne microbiota. Zhang et al. (2019) revealed that microbial enzyme activity was distinctly higher in ‘excellent conditions’ (measured using the Air Quality Index; AQI) than under slight and moderate conditions, suggesting that while microbial cells may increase with PM concentrations, viability may decrease. This warrants further research.

VOCs, antimicrobial resistance genes and ecosystem changes

Volatile organic compounds can also influence microbial growth and viability (Sidorova et al., 2021; Sillo et al., 2024). For instance, some VOCs have antimicrobial properties (e.g. inhibitory biochemicals from alcohols and ketones; Garrido et al., 2020). It is important to note that some microorganisms also synthesise and emit VOCs that influence various ecosystem dynamics (e.g. regulation of plant pathogens) (Almeida et al., 2023). A future research question may be: does air pollution interfere with microbial VOCs?

One study found that severe polluted conditions (based on the AQI) were negatively associated with the presence of antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) (and class 1 integrase intI1; Yan et al., 2022). However, several other studies show correlations between PM2.5 and antimicrobial resistance (Li et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2023; Xie, Jin, et al., 2018; Zhou et al., 2023), including one that suggests snowfall effectively spreads ARGs via PM2.5 over the Earth's surface (Zhu et al., 2021).

At least two studies have shown that a key source of airborne microbiota is soil, with bacterial alpha diversity decreasing from the ground as height in the air column increases (Robinson et al., 2020; Robinson, Cando‐Dumancela, et al., 2021. Climate change can influence soil ecosystems (e.g. via erosion, desiccation and compaction), and thus it is likely to indirectly affect the assembly and composition of the aerobiome. Changes in the aerobiome composition and dynamics driven by air pollution can have implications for human health, ecosystem functioning, and atmospheric processes, highlighting a complex interplay between air quality and microbial ecology in the atmosphere (Hu et al., 2020). While many studies have examined the impact of PM on airborne microbiota, there is a need for further investigation into the relationship between gaseous pollutants and the aerobiome (Figure 2).

FIGURE 2.

FIGURE 2

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A systems model of air pollution's potential influence on the aerobiome, including direct (left) and indirect (right). Red dashed links represent a negative (−) influence and blue links represent a positive (+) influence. Blue dashed links indicate where aerobiome‐related outcomes caused by air pollution can feedback to drive the cause (i.e. a vicious cycle). The arrowheads indicate the directionality of the influence. Grey arrows represent topic links with no interaction implied. The figure was created using the systems software Kumu (www.kumu.io).

HOW MIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT ECOSYSTEM HEALTH VIA THE POLLUTION–AEROBIOME NEXUS?

The complex network of interactions between climate change, air pollution and the aerobiome necessitates a ‘systems thinking’ approach to understand the multifaceted dynamics and emergent properties that shape ecosystem health (Figure 3). As discussed in previous sections, aspects of climate change (e.g. shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns) can act as a driver, directly influencing pollution dynamics, but also indirectly by altering atmospheric and ecological conditions, which in turn influence the distribution, concentration and behaviour of air pollutants. These pollutants, including particulate matter and gaseous emissions, impact the composition, diversity and activity of airborne microbiota, potentially altering ecosystem functioning (microbiota play key functional roles) from an ecological perspective and disease transmission from a human health perspective. Moreover, components of the air (e.g. microbiota and phytoncides) that are potentially beneficial for human health (Robinson & Breed, 2023) may also be affected by climate change and pollution dynamics. Feedback loops further complicate the system, as changes in one component can cascade through interconnected pathways, reinforcing or mitigating environmental impacts. Such complex feedbacks between climate change, microorganisms and atmospheric chemistry are illustrated in the natural and globally important system of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) production by marine bacteria and phytoplankton. DMS provides 90% of the marine biogenic sulphur in the atmosphere, where it promotes cloud formation, with implications for Earth's albedo and climate regulation (Arnold et al., 2013). Rising CO2 and ocean acidification may decrease global DMS production (Zhao et al., 2024), although DMS responses to combined ocean acidification and warming may vary with marine microorganisms and associated food webs/metabolic pathways (Arnold et al., 2013).

FIGURE 3.

FIGURE 3

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A systems model of the climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus, where red dashed links represent a negative (−) influence and blue links represent a positive (+) influence. The arrowheads indicate the directionality of the influence. Grey arrows represent topic links with no interaction implied. The figure was created using the systems software Kumu (www.kumu.io).

Climate change could conceivably increase the relative abundance and diversity of airborne pathogens that humans are exposed to; for instance, via PM from wildfires, which increases the available airborne substrate for microbes to adhere to and migrate. Whether or not this could increase infectious diseases is a question that requires more empirical research. However, there are indications that air pollution is correlated with the severity of infectious diseases (Ali et al., 2021) in addition to known non‐communicable disease (e.g. cardiovascular) risks (Franklin et al., 2015). Moreover, as rising temperatures alter gaseous emissions (e.g. O3), ecosystem services could be affected. For instance, a recent study showed that O3 plumes can interfere with bee pollination via biochemical interactions with floral cues (Langford et al., 2023). Whether such interactions have a microbial component is yet to be determined.

There is also a need to consider the transportation of atmospheric particles from deserts (e.g. Sahara, Middle East) to other areas of the world (e.g. the Americas, Canary Islands, India), their composition and how they contribute to air pollution and microbial growth. For instance, Mehra et al. (2023) studied the June 2020 Saharan dust event, which caused the heating of the atmosphere in the USA at a rate of up to 0.24 K day−1. The Amazon basin receives around 8.5 million tonnes of African dust annually (Kok et al., 2021). While there are proposed ecological benefits, such as nutrient deposition, it is likely that such dust events carry bioaerosols with human health implications (Rodríguez‐Arias et al., 2023). However, as Rodríguez‐Arias et al. (2023) said, ‘Very little research has been carried out on bioaerosols co‐transported by dust events’. This is an important area for future research.

By adopting a systems perspective, we can start to explore the complexities of this nexus, identifying leverage points for intervention and designing holistic strategies to promote resilience and sustainability in ecosystems affected by climate change and pollution. The notion of ‘tipping points’ is also worth considering in this discussion (Lenton et al., 2008). For example, increasing levels of pollution and rising temperatures could push the aerobiome past a tipping point, resulting in altered microbial communities or frequency/intensity of exposures that may have cascading effects on ecosystem health and human wellbeing. Understanding these potential tipping points is essential for predicting and mitigating the impacts of climate change and pollution on aerobiomes.

The mitigation of negative effects in the microbiome domain can be approached in several ways. Enhancing green infrastructure—such as high‐quality urban green spaces and vegetative buffers—may help reduce pollutant exposure (Jayasooriya et al., 2017) and provide habitats that support diverse microbial communities. However, the pathways linking health benefits to pollution reduction via urban green infrastructure remain unclear, and the mode of green infrastructure is critical to avoid unintended consequences (e.g. retention of air pollution) (Kumar et al., 2019). Moreover, practices such as reduced fertiliser and pesticide use, regenerative farming and conservation tillage help to maintain soil structure and fertility, which in turn will influence the aerobiome (soil is a key source of airborne microbiota; Robinson et al., 2020). More research is needed, but by preserving the natural diversity and function of microbial communities in soil, these practices might help mitigate the impacts of climate change and pollution on the aerobiome.

Furthermore, advocating for policies and regulations aimed at minimising the release of harmful substances into the environment is vital (Robinson, Cameron et al., 2021). This includes tighter controls on industrial emissions, waste management practices and the use of pesticides (incl. insecticides, fungicides and herbicides) and fertilisers. Such measures are essential to protect microbial ecosystems from the detrimental effects of toxic pollutants. There is also a need for ongoing monitoring and research to better understand the interactions between the microbiome and external stressors. This will enable the development of more targeted and effective mitigation strategies, ensuring that interventions are based on the latest scientific evidence and are tailored to specific environmental contexts.

Our systems diagrams provide a visual framework that encapsulates the complex interactions within this nexus. The diagrams illustrate the interconnected pathways through which climate change influences air pollution and, in turn, how these changes affect the aerobiome. By mapping out these relationships, the diagrams can help to identify key leverage points where interventions could be most effective in mitigating negative impacts on ecosystem and human health. This visual and conceptual approach can guide researchers in prioritising areas for further study, such as the impact of specific pollutants on aerobiome diversity or the role of the aerobiome in mediating the effects of climate change on human health. By fostering a more holistic understanding of these complex dynamics, the systems diagrams encourage interdisciplinary collaboration and the development of more targeted, effective strategies for addressing the challenges posed by the climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus.

CONCLUSIONS AND A CALL FOR INTERDISCIPLINARY ACTION

As highlighted by this mini‐review and Figure 3, understanding the climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus requires, by definition, an interdisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge from various fields. Climate change clearly affects air pollution and air pollution clearly affects the composition, abundance, diversity and activity of the aerobiome. Our systems diagrams show that climate change likely influences the aerobiome via climate change–pollution dynamics in complex ways. Addressing the challenges and mitigating the risks associated with this nexus requires a concerted effort from multiple stakeholders. Collaboration between scientists, policymakers, industry leaders and community members is essential to develop holistic solutions that consider the interconnected nature of the nexus. By fostering interdisciplinary dialogue and cooperation, we can leverage diverse expertise and perspectives to better understand the dynamics of the climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus and develop effective strategies for adaptation and mitigation. Through integrated efforts, we can safeguard human and ecosystem health in the face of ongoing ecological change.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Jake M. Robinson: Conceptualization; investigation; writing – original draft; methodology; visualization; writing – review and editing; software; data curation; project administration. Craig Liddicoat: Writing – review and editing; writing – original draft. Xin Sun: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Sunita Ramesh: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Scott Hawken: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Kevin Lee: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Joel Brame: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Nicole W. Fickling: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Emma Kuhn: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Claire Hayward: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Sonali Deshmukh: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Kate Robinson: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Christian Cando‐Dumancela: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Martin F. Breed: Writing – original draft; writing – review and editing.

FUNDING INFORMATION

MFB is funded by the Australian Research Council (grants LP190100051, LP190100484, DP210101932) and the New Zealand Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (grant UOWX2101). National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 32361143523) and the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. 322GJHZ2022028FN).

CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT

The authors declare no conflict of interests.

DATA AVAILABILTY STATEMENT

Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study.

Supporting information

Data S1.

MBT2-17-e70018-s001.docx (15KB, docx)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Open access publishing facilitated by Flinders University, as part of the Wiley ‐ Flinders University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.

Robinson, J.M. , Liddicoat, C. , Sun, X. , Ramesh, S. , Hawken, S. , Lee, K. et al. (2024) The climate change–pollution–aerobiome nexus: A ‘systems thinking’ mini‐review. Microbial Biotechnology, 17, e70018. Available from: 10.1111/1751-7915.70018

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