Skip to main content
PMC home page
Genitourinary Medicine logoLink to Genitourinary Medicine
. 1997 Oct;73(5):348–354. doi: 10.1136/sti.73.5.348

Direct estimates of prevalent HIV infection in adults in England and Wales for 1991 and 1993: an improved method.

A Petruckevitch 1, A Nicoll 1, A M Johnson 1, D Bennett 1
PMCID: PMC1195890  PMID: 9534742

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of prevalent HIV infections in England and Wales at the end of 1991 and 1993. METHOD: A direct method was used whereby population estimates derived from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyle (NATSAL) and prevalence data from the Unlinked Anonymous HIV Prevalence Monitoring Programme (UAPMP) were combined to produce estimates of the number of adults infected and alive in the population. RESULTS: In the population of England and Wales the numbers of prevalent infections for defined transmission categories, at the end of 1993, were as follows: 12,600 through sex between men, 2500 through injecting drug use, and 6900 through heterosexual intercourse. The overall estimate was 22,800 HIV seropositive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The direct method attempts to provide an estimate of the number of HIV infections using population based survey data. These estimates are consistent with other approaches using independent methods. Such methods are essential for inferring recent HIV incidence, projecting future AIDS cases, and for healthcare planning.

Full text

PDF
349

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Boisson E., Nicoll A., Zaba B., Rodrigues L. C. Interpreting HIV seroprevalence data from pregnant women. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Hum Retrovirol. 1996 Dec 15;13(5):434–439. doi: 10.1097/00042560-199612150-00006. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Gill O. N., Adler M. W., Day N. E. Monitoring the prevalence of HIV. BMJ. 1989 Nov 25;299(6711):1295–1298. doi: 10.1136/bmj.299.6711.1295. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Holland F. J., Ades A. E., Davison C. F., Parker S., Berry T., Hjelm M., Wilcox A. H., Cubitt D., Hudson C. N., Peckham C. S. Use of anonymous newborn serosurveys to evaluate antenatal HIV screening programmes. J Med Screen. 1994 Jul;1(3):176–179. doi: 10.1177/096914139400100308. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Howitt D. J., Mortimer J. Y., Evans B. G., Noone P. A. People who travel to be treated for HIV infection: keeping track for care management. Commun Dis Rep CDR Rev. 1995 Jul 21;5(8):R120–R122. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Hunt A. J., Davies P. M., McManus T. J., Weatherburn P., Hickson F. C., Christofinis G., Coxon A. P., Sutherland S. HIV infection in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men. BMJ. 1992 Sep 5;305(6853):561–562. doi: 10.1136/bmj.305.6853.561. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Johnson A. M., Wadsworth J., Wellings K., Bradshaw S., Field J. Sexual lifestyles and HIV risk. Nature. 1992 Dec 3;360(6403):410–412. doi: 10.1038/360410a0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Karon J. M., Rosenberg P. S., McQuillan G., Khare M., Gwinn M., Petersen L. R. Prevalence of HIV infection in the United States, 1984 to 1992. JAMA. 1996 Jul 10;276(2):126–131. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Stephenson J. M., Griffioen A. The effect of HIV diagnosis on reproductive experience. Study Group for the Medical Research Council Collaborative Study of Women with HIV. AIDS. 1996 Dec;10(14):1683–1687. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Stimson G. V., Hunter G. M., Donoghoe M. C., Rhodes T., Parry J. V., Chalmers C. P. HIV-1 prevalence in community-wide samples of injecting drug users in London, 1990-1993. AIDS. 1996 Jun;10(6):657–666. doi: 10.1097/00002030-199606000-00012. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Strang J., Gossop M., Griffiths P., Powis B. HIV among south London heroin users in 1991. Lancet. 1992 Apr 25;339(8800):1060–1061. doi: 10.1016/0140-6736(92)90587-s. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Taylor A., Goldberg D., Emslie J., Wrench J., Gruer L., Cameron S., Black J., Davis B., McGregor J., Follett E. Outbreak of HIV infection in a Scottish prison. BMJ. 1995 Feb 4;310(6975):289–292. doi: 10.1136/bmj.310.6975.289. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Wadsworth J., Field J., Johnson A. M., Bradshaw S., Wellings K. Methodology of the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 1993;156(3):407–421. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Genitourinary Medicine are provided here courtesy of BMJ Publishing Group

RESOURCES