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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America logoLink to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
. 1979 Dec;76(12):6030–6034. doi: 10.1073/pnas.76.12.6030

Dynamics of technological evolution: Random walk model for the research enterprise

Elliott W Montroll *, Kurt E Shuler
PMCID: PMC411793  PMID: 16592727

Abstract

Technological evolution is a consequence of a sequence of replacements. The development of a new technology generally follows from model testing of the basic ideas on a small scale. Traditional technologies such as aerodynamics and naval architecture involved feasibility experiments on systems characterized by only one or two dimensionless constants. Technologies of the “future” such as magnetically confined fusion depend upon many coupled dimensionless constants. Research and development is modeled and analyzed in terms of random walks in appropriate dimensionless constant space.

Keywords: dimensionless constants, scaling

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Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

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